Fear of 'losing out' may have prompted Trump to alter stance on TPP

TPP-11 may allow US participation when they are ready. There will be no renegotiations.

NAFTA may be tweaked to reflect evolving trade patterns, but it will neither be scrapped, nor will there will be any major changes.

The US is welcome to rejoin the Paris Agreement at any time, but there will be no renegotiations..

The world seems to have (wisely) adopted a strategy to deal with Trump: ignore him wait for 2020, and carry on. Ironically, Trump wanted the world to take greater responsibility for itself; it is. Trump is a loser, increasingly impotent and isolated, tweeting furiously from bed.

The Moron in Chief believes in free trade but fair trade hence the Huge Really Huge hike in the tariff of Solar Panels. Huge Hike. Putting 1000s of US Citizens out of work. Free Trade at its best!

Also, The Chief CornChip has flipflopped on so many issues that Are Permanent Changes (His definition of Permanent = Until someone pays me more money): Immigration/Travel Bans. Paris, TPP that it seems someone with the ability to manipulate small children under the age of 5 has the Cornchip’s ear.

This was always going to happen. America's astonishingly stupid attitude towards free trade could be the end of its economy. Trump or his successor will now come hat in hand to the new TPP begging for a seat at the table, with far less influence than before and no say on its rules.

I can't think of how the TPP could have turned out any better TBH. Absolutely epic win for the TPP nations and a fatal blow to the protectionist morons around the world

The TPP is a very bad deal.

Because....? Sounds like another broken Trump promise. He can't change anything. This is not reality TV.

I fear the U.S is going to want to rewrite the thing from the ground up. There is no time for that. They can attempt to come on-board after March 8th.

Ultimately this is a geo-political agreement as much as a trade agreement.

According to economists Australia's trade is expected to increase 0.5% over a decade due to the TPP.

Its virtually nothing.

So why did we sign up? To have an alternative, higher standard trade framework other than whatever China dictates and obviously to further cement the U.S role in the region along with Japan. Branching out into South America is also attractive.

The US should insist on a one on one, bilateral trade agreement, such as Australia is privileged to have.

I think one reason we got that agreement is for Japanese car manufacturers to sure-up their significant market lead in this country. Australians love Japanese cars as a general rule, especially Toyota.

2017 sales figures...

Toyota – 216,566 (up from 209,610 in 2016)

Mazda – 116,349 (down from 118,217)

Hyundai – 97,013 (down from 101,555)

Holden – 90,306 (down from 94,308)

Mitsubishi – 80,654 (up from 73,368)

Ford – 78,161 (down from 81,207)

Volkswagen – 58,004 (up from 56,571)

Nissan – 56,594 (down from 66,826)

Kia – 54,737 (up from 42,668)

Subaru – 52,511 (up from 47,018)

They want to make sure those Korean brands don't get any further up the scoreboard, along with keeping Holden and Ford out. They also want to make sure they have the advantage against any Chinese brands that pop up.

Of course with electric coming down the line, Toyota and the rest need to make sure they have some good models to choose from. Their legacy gives them an advantage in Aus, but its not certain to continue by any means.

They had their chance

TPP - Japan can back out anytime down the road that suits their purpose, as the US did.

But free trade means a complete tearing down of all tariffs which the TPP doesn't do.

Well, there are free tariffs in Japan for cars and heavy, electronics, etc. TPP was going to speed up the freeing of tariffs of food items coming into Japan. TPP is not only about trade but about human rights and laws. It will push countries like China to ramp up their legal system to fight IP stealing, etc. It will push countries that know about human slavery to go after this exploitation. You push for more human rights you get a better world and better trade. There is no Trump's version of TPP. It's just TPP. He joins it he lets down his followers.

Japan has its very own, one on one, trade agreement with Australia.

Australia's beef industry has been buoyed today by news that Japan is likely to announce it will dramatically increase tariffs on US beef imports.

"If imports from a country that doesn't have an economic partnership agreement rise more than 17 per cent from the year earlier, it will trigger the increase in tariffs from 38.5 per cent to 50 per cent and that's only on US frozen beef imports into Japan," he said.

Happily for Australia, it does have an economic partnership with Japan — a free trade agreement signed in 2015.

Under the trade agreement, Australian frozen beef attracts a tariff of 27.2 per cent, around half that imposed on US imports under the snapback measure.

Snapback could be good news for Australian industry

Japan's so-called safeguard trigger had not been used in more than a decade against the US and it could have massive implications for Australia.

Analyst Simon Quilty said it would make Australian beef far more attractive to the Japanese consumer.

"Just to try to put it in perspective, what it would mean if a frozen rib eye was to go into that market, it relates back to a price for the Japanese of about a $2.50 difference as a direct result of the difference in tariff," he said.

So long as China is not involved, the TPP is the way to go.

The cheap Chinese cars are coming and Toyota will move on to something else if they can survive. That's Toyota's problem. Toyota many years ago used to manufacture textile equipment. Can they transform again successfully?

If Toyota, Mazda etc can build more plants in S.E Asia, especially in say Indonesia and offer good electric models, they will still hold the advantage in this country. People do not, as a general rule, trust Chinese manufactured goods here that involve a significant outlay. Certainly not an item which will cost $20k, $30k. A sub $1000 phone is a different prospect altogether. People will go Japanese & European if its big dollars. China will have success at the lower end of the market is my prediction.

It seems Indonesia is reconsidering joining TPP as incomes increase there.

Good.

Aly RustomToday 07:36 am JST

This is bad news. The TPP is a very bad deal.

It is a bad deal for whom and why?

You used to say that japan didn't have tariffs..

I meant that free (zero). It's a fact.

So you admit that Japan has tariffs good. Not right

Do they? I can get non Japanese seafood here cheaper. There is a tariff but still cheaper? They have none for cars, electronics, and heavy goods like steel.

Just how much have you read about the TPP?

The positive points. And if it's so bad why is Trump going back to it? Why is he even talking about going back to it. Sorry TPP skeptics are so paranoid about it that they think it will make human exploitation worse.

What are you talking about? China is not in the TPP.

Eventually that is a long-term goal. Trump always talks about China stealing US secrets. When (someday) China joins TPP they will be pushed to make these changes in their IP law enforcement system. If someone in China steals another country's secrets they will be arrested like in any other developed country.

Japan, has no plan to renegotiate TPP for a fair trade agreement, as the agreement, as always, is in Japan's favor. well if Trump hadn't dumped the TPP thinking in doing so would kill it, by the time they decide they want back in the rules would have already been written and signed. Actually well played by Japan, bad play by Trump. Id even predict that China would far more likely join the TPP before the US, if this happened watch Trump come sprinting to the TPP table.

Japan is likely to announce it will dramatically increase tariffs on US beef imports.

Why the difference with Australia and US beef?

Of course. If the country you are importing from has a VERY WEAK CURRENCY. Economics 101.

WRONG! Just checked official Japan's official tariff table and seafood tariffs are zero or lower than WTO rates for seafood- few cases no more than WTO rates of 3.5%.

who never even read the agreement

I read the facts and Japan has zero or near zero tariffs on imported seafood.

Of course. If the country you are importing from has a VERY WEAK CURRENCY. Economics 101.

WRONG! Worst a few cases of it matching 3.5% WTO rates but WRONG! So much of it zero tariffs.

I don't understand why the Trumps are so whiny. Australia has a trade deficit with the US and they are not whiny. China has a trade deficit with Japan and they are not whiny because they are in need of Japan's high tech heavy products like steel and machinery. Japan is open. Just about zero tariffs on seafood, cars, smartphones, electronics, steel. Why all the whiners? Just compete better and don't whine. Worked for Apple and Disney. Also, Coca-cola. IKEA.

Japan raised the tariff on US beef to punish Trump for pulling out of TPP - that is not truly free trade. TPP only benefits Japan, not the US. Wrong again, japan raised the tariff because US beef exports surged past the agreed percentile increase year/year. US knew exactly what this limit was and if they had better monitoring of its beef exports could have easily avoided the increase by limiting their exports. Even Australia with its FTA with Japan also has an agreed quota , dont see them breaking the rules and getting tariffs added.

When (someday) China joins TPP they will be pushed to make these changes in their IP law enforcement system. If someone in China steals another country's secrets they will be arrested like in any other developed country.

We both know that China will not crack down on IP enforcement if it disadvantages a Chinese company. Nobody will be arrested on Chinese soil for that.

I hope China never joins the TPP.

It will totally ruin the agreement. Every other country will be aiming to lift the bar on trade, IP law, perhaps environmental, human rights etc. China cares absolutely nothing for those goals, other than environmental.

Don't be naive.

'Japan lead the TPP11'? From my observations Japan seemed reluctant to move forward after Trump's announcement to withdraw from the original TPP12 agreement, negotiated by the previous administration. It was the other 10 countries who seek to get TPP11 done. Even tiny pro-US Singapore punched above it's weight to have TPP11. After initially showing a stance that without the US it is not worth going forward, PM Abe seems to have a change of mind. This could be because of the other trade initiative being pursued by China. Kudos to Abe as he seems to have now woken up to the dangerous reality of China dominating everything economically earlier than what the world is prepared for.

Looks like when it comes to beef the advantage to keep with TPP are strong. It seems Indonesia is reconsidering joining TPP as incomes increase there.

Japan raised the tariff on US beef to punish Trump for pulling out of TPP - that is not truly free trade. TPP only benefits Japan, not the US.

The US should insist on a one on one, bilateral trade agreement, such as Australia is privileged to have.

We both know that China will not crack down on IP enforcement if it disadvantages a Chinese company. Nobody will be arrested on Chinese soil for that.

Of course.

I hope China never joins the TPP.

Very doubtful that they will.

It will totally ruin the agreement. Every other country will be aiming to lift the bar on trade, IP law, perhaps environmental, human rights etc. China cares absolutely nothing for those goals, other than environmental.

Exactly.

Trump says he believes in free and fair trade. The US exports 3 times more goods & Services to Australia, than the Aussies do in return. Thats a "very very bad deal" for the Aussies. The Americans are taking huge advantage of the Aussies and does Trump want to correct this hugely unfair trade imbalance? Hell no. if its Americas advantage thats fine and dandy but listen to him cry and stomp around if it goes the other way.

Can you say "Trump is a hypocrite"? The best way of dealing with Trump is to ignore his tweets, wait till he calls you and then tell him the deal stands as is, take it or leave it. If America misses out its all on Trump and his supporters.

If Trump wants back in the TPP thats fine. The deal stands as is, take it or leave it Mr Trump.

If they have good value and people want them what can Japan or any other country do (in the long term) to discourage Australian or any other countries' customers buying what they want (or just need)? Personally when cheap Chinese electric cars come mainstream I will want that and so will many others. Yes, years away, but no one...no country can stop this market force. The cheap Chinese cars are coming and Toyota will move on to something else if they can survive. That's Toyota's problem. Toyota many years ago used to manufacture textile equipment. Can they transform again successfully?

Plus SOPA is in the TPP.

The protests against that bill were so huge about 5 years ago, they had to scrap it.

Opponents claimed that the proposed legislation threatened free speech and innovation, and enabled law enforcement to block access to entire Internet domains due to infringing content posted on a single blog or webpage. They also claimed that SOPA would bypass the "safe harbor" protections from liability presently afforded to websites by the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. Some library associations also claimed that the legislation's emphasis on stronger copyright enforcement would expose libraries to prosecution. Other opponents claimed that requiring search engines to delete domain names violated the First Amendment and could begin a worldwide arms race of unprecedented Internet censorship.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop_Online_Piracy_Act

Well, there are free tariffs in Japan for cars and heavy, electronics, etc.

Funny you say that. You used to say that japan didn't have tariffs..

TPP was going to speed up the freeing of tariffs of food items coming into Japan.

So you admit that Japan has tariffs good. Not right

TPP is not only about trade but about human rights and laws. It will push countries like China to ramp up their legal system to fight IP stealing, etc.

What are you talking about? China is not in the TPP.

It will push countries that know about human slavery to go after this exploitation.

You push for more human rights you get a better world and better trade.

Human Rights Watch and others have expressed concerns that the agreement’s labor chapter and associated bilateral agreements will not adequately safeguard labor rights in TPP countries with poor labor rights records, notably Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. Although the Consistency Plan agreements are important to motivate much-needed reform, the extent to which they will be implemented or enforced is unclear, particularly given poor enforcement of labor rights provisions in other trade agreements and under each country’s domestic laws.   

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/12/qa-trans-pacific-partnership

Just how much have you read about the TPP?

TPP is not free trade as it stands - there can be no free trade until all hidden trade barriers are removed.

Japan, has no plan to renegotiate TPP for a fair trade agreement, as the agreement, as always, is in Japan's favor.

A bilateral, one on one trade agreement with Japan, is the only way to negotiate with Japan for a fair trade agreement.

At this time Japan has many trade barriers that inhibit, restrict and drive up the cost of US goods entering the country. Among them are processed food and agricultural products.

Again, as I have said many times in the past - all that Trump wants is a trade agreement that is fair to both parties. As it is written, TPP is not fair trade for the USA.

President Trump will do what is fair for the US and others.

Under the trade agreement, Australian frozen beef attracts a tariff of 27.2 per cent, around half that imposed on US imports under the snapback measure.

Still far too high. Meant to reach 9% under the TPP over 10 years, 15 years? That will provide a real boost to Aussie producers at that point. Indonesia is really the market Australia will focus on in the coming years as incomes increase in Indonesia. Right now beef is still too expensive for lot of Indonesians, who are instead going for buffalo and other cheaper meats.

In addition to that, one has to look at the different countries as some have tariffs that are higher than others. Anyone who knows anything about trade would not make blanket statements

This is bad news. The TPP is a very bad deal.

It is a bad deal for whom and why?

the high level of secrecy during the negotiations

the abolition of price controls and subsidies; would hurt some domestic industries.

Tightening of copyright and intellectual property restrictions; making medicines more expensive and inaccessible

Rising cost of living

Concerns that corporations will be able to sue governments under the investor-state dispute settlement system

limits on national sovereignty

In New Zealand and Canada, some indigenous peoples have complained that the national governments did not consult them properly or involve them in the negotiation process.

https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-main-criticisms-of-the-TPP

I meant that free (zero). It's a fact.

No it isn't.

So you admit that Japan has tariffs good. Not right

Do they? I can get non Japanese seafood here cheaper.

OH Well then

There is a tariff but still cheaper?

Of course. If the country you are importing from has a VERY WEAK CURRENCY. Economics 101.

Just how much have you read about the TPP?

The positive points.

You didn't read it, did you?

And if it's so bad why is Trump going back to it? Why is he even talking about going back to it.

You don't even bother to read the article in front of your nose properly do you?

But Trump's statements in Davos suggest Washington will not return to the TPP under the original terms,

Sorry TPP skeptics are so paranoid about it that they think it will make human exploitation worse.

No we just know what we are talking about. unlike some who never even read the agreement

What are you talking about? China is not in the TPP.

Eventually that is a long-term goal.

LOL! The TPP was in part formed to curb China's influence.

Trump always talks about China stealing US secrets. When (someday) China joins TPP they will be pushed to make these changes in their IP law enforcement system. If someone in China steals another country's secrets they will be arrested like in any other developed country.

Really. And you know this how...??

TPP is not free trade as it stands - there can be no free trade until all hidden trade barriers are removed.

Absolutely.

Japan, has no plan to renegotiate TPP for a fair trade agreement, as the agreement, as always, is in Japan's favor.

Agree.

Japan raised the tariff on US beef to punish Trump for pulling out of TPP - that is not truly free trade. TPP only benefits Japan, not the US.

Of course.

Because....? Sounds like another broken Trump promise. He can't change anything. This is not reality TV.

Have you read it??

It will push countries that know about human slavery to go after this exploitation.

You push for more human rights you get a better world and better trade.

A major concern about the TPP’s labor chapter is that it can only be enforced by governments. The TPP empowers member countries to bring legal disputes against other member countries for violating the labor chapter’s terms. But while unions, labor advocacy groups, and trade federations could lobby or petition the US or other governments to take formal action to enforce the TPP’s provisions, they will not be able to file a complaint under the agreement.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/01/12/qa-trans-pacific-partnership#3

President Trump has not altered his stance at all. He beleives in free trade, but fair trade.

It's a pity more people did'nt listen to Senator Gephardt in the 1980's, when the biggesr protectist country was Japan. (I remember all the "but Japanese snow is different" nonsense).

I don't really think that Japan is in any position to accuse other countries, especially the USA, of protectionism.

I don't think the USA will lose out at all.

Here's the deal- people want free trade? Great! I'm all for that. But free trade means a complete tearing down of all tariffs which the TPP doesn't do.

PLUS (and this the big one)Trade is the exchange of goods AND SERVICES. So if you want to have free trade, guess what? You need to open up the borders of these countries like the EU did. Otherwise, its just corporations sending their factories to the cheapest countries, exploiting the workers there, and bringing back the goods to be sold to make record profits. If we are going to have the TPP, then there should be open borders between the countries involved.