politics

Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan may change China's strategy toward Japan

64 Comments
By Tomoyuki Tachikawa

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China has been trying to cozy up to the Islamist group

So they have quite quickly become similar stupid as the rest of the West? One small error now and they can expect the ‘impossible’ in the future, Taliban or something like that, patrolling in Beijing. Not tomorrow or next month, but sooner than they ever can imagine.

-1 ( +9 / -10 )

Have you seen the number on the plane in which the US military escaped?..

The ironies of the life

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kaJvgUpZtNI

-13 ( +4 / -17 )

The game of hot potato comes to mind, and the US rather in a disgraceful manner handed off the Afghanistan problem to China and Russia.

-2 ( +7 / -9 )

China and Japan could be besties !

-12 ( +9 / -21 )

After the US troops gone, China starts to worry about Taliban terrorists cross border and come to rescue help Uyghur people terribly suppressed by China for a long time.

9 ( +19 / -10 )

Muslim jihadi took over

3 ( +8 / -5 )

09/11 is the plane number.

-5 ( +5 / -10 )

Japan better watch itself.

Their “Sugar Daddy” is in fact led by an incompetent geriatric that cannot be depended upon.

It’s time that Japan wakes up and starts behaving like a real nation. To make its own unique decisions specific to its own unique geopolitical reality.

Yes, Afghanistan will change China’s strategy towards Japan. And it won’t make things easier for Japan.

In addition, Afghanistan has clearly demonstrated that Japan better change its strategy towards the US and China.

And Japan better do so quickly.

3 ( +13 / -10 )

We don't really need to know how Japan is impacted by everything happening in the world...

-16 ( +4 / -20 )

Fascinating how Afghanistan remains a topic, voluntarily or not, for the main powers of the times. The Great Game is definitely still on...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Game

This time, the idea that Japan and China may become best buddies over the topic requires time to get used to though...(as is the idea that Japanese politicians may have to actually achieve something on the international stage...)

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

After the US troops gone, China starts to worry about Taliban terrorists cross border and come to rescue help Uyghur people terribly suppressed by China for a long time.

Taliban spokesman stated weeks ago that Uyghur were ”an internal matter for China” and Taliban would not bother China about it.

You see, President Buden has thought of everything. All going well!

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

I don’t think the taliban are going to look the other way while China wages a domestic genocide against Muslims. The US was helping China by keeping this extremist regime at bay, but they now have a close neighbor to take their rage out on.

3 ( +10 / -7 )

I think China’s mainly looking at securing Afghanistan’s huge deposits of “rare earth” minerals such as lithium for its future “Green Earth” battery production. … plus a few islands for the same reason l guess…

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I don’t think the taliban are going to look the other way while China wages a domestic genocide against Muslims. 

No, you’ll see. No problem.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Beijing also has expressed hope that the Taliban will establish a political structure that would lay the foundation for lasting peace in Afghanistan, effectively accepting its takeover of the nation.

Not going to happen!!! Ever!!! Period!!!

5 ( +9 / -4 )

I don’t think the taliban are going to look the other way while China wages a domestic genocide against Muslims. 

Pretty clear the Taliban couldnt care less about the Muslims in their own nation, let alone ones in China.

8 ( +13 / -5 )

The state of modern day journalism, let's just suppose and make it like its real, how pathetic

5 ( +9 / -4 )

I don't think the tyrants in Beijing have enough political intelligence to moderate their bad attitude toward Japan.

2 ( +7 / -5 )

Taliban spokesman stated weeks ago that Uyghur were ”an internal matter for China” and Taliban would not bother China about it.

Taliban sub-leader stated days ago that Afghans can live same as before and can work same as before and no one is killed even they worked with the US troops. but now some people were already killed and can't work same jobs. Most Afghans are worried about their life now. Can you trust Taliban?

4 ( +9 / -5 )

In reality, however, Beijing wants U.S. troops to continue staying in Afghanistan, given that security in the country and the surrounding area has been maintained for two decades due largely to Washington's military deployment, diplomatic sources said.

The Chinese are smart people and they’re good negotiators. Essentially for 20 years the US has contributed to peace in the region. There have been no attacks on US soil since 9/11 which started this thing. China has benefitted from US security without paying anything. The article suggests they are well aware of that

Along the same lines, the US has protected China from a military Japan by occupying Japan. The US troops in Japan hasn’t always been to contain China until only recent years; it was to keep Japan in check. China has benefitted from this and have not paid anything but they can show their appreciation.

During the meeting, Wang called on the Taliban to "draw a clear line" from terrorist groups to "remove obstacles and create favorable conditions for regional peace, stability and development," the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Peace through negotiations

Xinhua quoted Baradar as saying the Taliban would "absolutely not allow any forces to do anything harmful to China."

This is positive. The Taliban needs China to develop. China wants peace in order to continue to trade and develop.

Beijing also has expressed hope that the Taliban will establish a political structure that would lay the foundation for lasting peace in Afghanistan, effectively accepting its takeover of the nation.

Development diplomacy trumps Cruise Missile diplomacy. To be fair 9/11 did not happen in China.

The US has contributed to peace in the region. For China to swoop in and take advantage of the rare earths and copper in Afghanistan is a windfall that should be shared with the US.

The US has done the heavy lifting. China has the money. They are capitalists with a capital C. Russia is also hoping to benefit from this with China. Afghanistan has a chance to be the platform for diplomacy and development. The Taliban cannot defeat Russia, China, and the US.

-10 ( +1 / -11 )

Some foreign affairs experts say China sees the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan as a good chance to undermine Washington's influence in the region.

This can work both ways.

Now. If I was a security/intelligence agency of a certain country, I would be flooding Afghanistan's (airwaves, clandestine radio service in Pashtun and other languages, Internet and popular communication apps) with a barrage of information (true or not) about how their Muslim brothers and sisters are being treated in China.

And calling for action!!!

4 ( +8 / -4 )

ebisen

We don't really need to know how Japan is impacted by everything happening in the world...

Err ... this is a Japanese paper - what on earth do you expect??? LOL

9 ( +12 / -3 )

China will just buy the leadership and the tribal elders off, keeping them internally focused. China doesn’t give a s**t about the Afghan people so will just play all the factions off against each other, and how many thousands die and are enslaved in the process will matter not a jot to them so long as they get what they want. That is the difference between what a liberal democracy can and will do rather than an amoral, cynical, opportunist dictatorship.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

I hope the Taliban wages terror across their border with China.

But if the Chinese become their arm supplier then that ain't gonna happen. I see this second scenario happening more likely.

No need for Japan to be an intermediary nonsense.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

Raise alert when Beijing is trying to (pretend to) look nice. Coming from a report by Kyodo, a Beijing-lean news agency, I suspect that it's politically nuanced in an aim of dividing the US and allies.

As for Afghanistan, it's still true that the country has been a graveyard of foreign invaders. China may be the next victim.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

China could try re-education camps for Taliban, that may work? Now Beijing will be distracted away from Taiwan, how terrible.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Afghanistan is a treasure trove of mineral wealth – the Chinese know this only too well

4 ( +6 / -2 )

This seems like wishful thinking. If anything it would make China more aggressive, as it will believe that US would be unwilling to fight a sustained war.

China would also need to keep its nationalists in check, who wants to conquer Okinawa and Hokkaido. And if there are any internally unstable events, force China's gov. hand to act on it.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

This is a wake up call for China, it's mistreatment and abuse of the Muslims minority at some point will backfire, and the fact that Afghanistan is bordering China, Muslims will join forces and start demanding their human rights be respected.

Japan can't do anything in terms of helping China, many nations have warned China that it's continued abuse of it's Muslim minority will only fuel the anger of other Muslims.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

In reality, however, Beijing wants U.S. troops to continue staying in Afghanistan, given that security in the country and the surrounding area has been maintained for two decades due largely to Washington's military deployment, diplomatic sources said.

This opium is bloody ridiculous! Taliban is funded by ISI in Pakistan, and China is extremely allied with Pakistan. Talibans may be radical in Islam but they are welcoming economic development in the country. Just like Saudi Arabia lives in 15th century culturally but they are still advanced in technologies and rich in wealth. China and Russia are going to shower Afghanistan with wealth to prevent the rise of ETIM and block the West from accessing Central Asia ever again!

As its ties with the United States have been deteriorating, China also hopes that Japan, its neighbor and one of the closest U.S. security allies in the world, would act as an intermediator between the world's two major powers, the sources added.

China has never said or referred to this at all. This journalist is making this up to upsell the relevance of Japan on the world stages. The relevance of Japan is declining by each passing year. It is merely a matter of time that China can have a button that can turn on/off the economy of Japan at will - Taiwan.

"To avert the worst-case scenario, China would strive to deepen cooperation with the United States over the Afghan issue and for that purpose, it might not take action that could hurt relations with Japan further," the diplomat said.

Again, this is unlikely. The US won't allow China to access intellectual properties fairly and globally. The US wants China to continue to be the world's workshop, while China wants to strive towards a socialist superpower state that won't depend on the West any longer.

8 ( +14 / -6 )

The article reads like a lot of wishful thinking without real basis.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

More like it will change Japan's stance towards China.

Seriously, trusting the US in your national defense is unwise.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Septim Dynasty

If Japan's economy can be turned-off by Taiwan, that means Japan's economy is weak.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Seriously, trusting the US in your national defense is unwise.

Really? Could Japan somehow have prospered more without US defense guarantees after WWII?

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Dirk T

Probably by making peace treaties with China and the USSR, AND not getting occupied by US troops.

The weird thing is Mao didn't even ask for compensations from Japan, yet Japan still gets into this fight anyway.

The japanese ruling class lacks strategy.

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

It would be foolish for China to underestimate America's commitment to Japan. Or Japan's strength.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Bluezone

It would be foolish for Japan to believe the US is gonna die for them.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

It's high time Japan starts hedging its bets.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Victor

I think it already has, since months ago, it let Taro Aso speaks about defending Taiwan, then lets him retract it.

Other than the Taiwan issue, Japan and China have not much issues.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Let china deal with the Taliban. It's the bungle of the resident.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I got as far as before I gave up reading.

In reality, however, Beijing wants U.S. troops

This article is nothing more than a poorly researched, poorly written opinion piece.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

The Biden Presidency after just 7 months is not just a disaster - which was predictable - but a tragedy.

Congrats all of you who supported this.

At least no more mean tweets, right?

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Yrral

Uh, I love Japan, I think the problem with US comes from foreign influence more than anything.

But they definitely should not tackle this Afghan problem, not their problem at all.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

I think the problem with Japan* comes from foreign influence more than anything.

-5 ( +0 / -5 )

Great, more obviously biased speculation.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Xinhua quoted Baradar as saying the Taliban would "absolutely not allow any forces to do anything harmful to China."

and does anyone believe that ?

The Taliban will do what they want, once they have enforced their version of the Koran on the Afghanistan

people.

.

quercetumToday 06:22 pm JST

   During the meeting, Wang called on the Taliban to "draw a clear line" from terrorist groups to "remove obstacles and create favorable conditions for regional peace, stability and development," the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Peace through negotiations

.

Last time that happened, WW2 started not long after it.

.

Only that time the words used were "Peace in our time" after negotiations with Hitler.

.

What will the future hold for Afghanistan, is very hard to say.

.

How are the current Taliban different from the ones 20 years ago ?

.

Only time will tell.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I'm sorry, this logic sounds flawed .....It's a grab bag what we will get out of this

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Beijing also has expressed hope that the Taliban will establish a political structure that would lay the foundation for lasting peace in Afghanistan, effectively accepting its takeover of the nation.

wonder what that peace could possibly look like?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Other than the Taiwan issue, Japan and China have not much issues.

Really? Glad to hear that Japan and China have sorted out the thousands of trademark / copyright lawsuits against chinese companies and the hundreds of chinese students with visas being revoked (was that some kind of spy conspiracy theory?)

The Taliban should storm Kabul airport and take the imperialists captive.

They could try but if they do it won't take less than 5 mins for the navy to launch laser guided missiles into the most probable building concentrating taliban senior leaders and fighter jets, helicopters to reach Kabul and empty their machine guns on taliban fighters, no american soldier will be willingly to be taken alive so they will fight until the end, there are more than 5000 there, much of Kabul probably will be destroyed

Think about the taliban, why they are fighting so long to take control of Afghanistan? the only reason i think is that they think like isis, they want to take control and apply their radical religion on ANY PLACE not just Afghanistan, Afghanistan will be the their sanctuary to plan, forge alliances with other radical groups and expand beyond that, think again why they continue fighting for so long? They could have stopped the fight, lived whatever they wanted and follow their radical religion, they won't stop until the entire region follows their sick, stupid, brainwashed and irrational radicalism and about the Uighurs, the taliban (and any other radical religion: ultra orthodox jewish, christians etc) for them every other religion that is not radical is not considered "pure" that's why they don't care about what the chinese is doing with them

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Biden’s incompetence will have a domino effect. Weakness will embolden CCP. Asia is now on alert.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

In my opinion, war should be avoided before something undesirable or catastrophic happens. We as human beings must have the wisdom and common sense to make decisions. The peace, freedom and well -being of the people must come first. At the global level, understanding is essential so that decisions are made correctly and consensus is reached. The harmony of a country also plays an important role so that all citizens can live in peace and tolerance.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Joe Biden's Latest Lie to the World: " We have NO indication that American Citizens have trouble accessing the airport, so they should go to the airport."

Fact: US Department of Defense: "There have been reports of Americans not being able to get through checkpoints to the airport..."

Whoops! Looks like President Incompetent didn't realize you should probably get the citizens evacuated BEFORE you give permission for the guys with guns to run...sigh...what a DISASTER!

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Hito Bito,the government of the US warn it citizen of all kind of harmful situation,we get warn daily of thing that are harmful too us from bad food,bad Weather,but the government of the US ,cannot warn it citizen of poor judgement,the US State Department give US citizen on a daily a travel advisory ,people ignored it at their peril

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Maybe I’m different, but I blame the terrorists. Like the ones involved in the Paris attacks in 2015. The 2005 London bombings. 2004 Madrid train bombings. 2008 Mumbai attacks. Just a small sample. And all committed by Islamic terrorist organization members. And neither those countries nor the US, deserved it.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

As long as American buy cheap Chinese good from China,why would China attack their #1 client,

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

I don't know who wrote this article but all of it is not true.

If you actually look at the tweets of Chinese leadership like Hua Chunying(Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman) and Hu Xijin(the editor in Chief of Global Times), they boast that it is now the golden time to "re-unify" China, warns Taiwan that Americans will flee and abandon Taiwan on the day China invades Taiwan.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

One wonders how well the Taliban will fare in combat against Daesh? Daesh is organizing in Afghanistan hoping to exploit the power vacuum to its advantage. The Talibs may have more than a reformed Northern Alliance to deal with, and for the residents of Kabul the Taliban may seem like moderates compared to the likes of Daesh.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Taliban is funded by ISI in Pakistan, and China is extremely allied with Pakistan. Talibans may be radical in Islam but they are welcoming economic development in the country.

The ISI is the same organization that protected Osama Bin Laden when Pakistan was supposedly an ally in the War on Terror and was receiving a huge chunk of money from the US at the time. The more it goes on, you can see that the ISI doesn't care about what the Pakistani government thinks or wants on paper; it's about the best definition of a deep state within a state as you may find. The ISI, alongside the Saudis, are probably the biggest supporters of Islamic militant groups in the world. They even supported Bosnian Muslims during the Bosnian War. Don't think for a second that the ISI would hesitate before they turn their cannons against China while they will deny everything as usual. They have done it before and they will do it again because their only loyalty is to themselves and beyond any government.

As for China, I will see how events unfold in the next few years. The CCP made their bed with the Taliban for now, but the same thing that happened to the US can also happen to China as well when the ISI holds the cards. And it has already begun with that suicide bombing against Chinese citizens in Pakistan not that far back. If things go down the nasty route, then we will see how far China will be willing to go.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Incredible, even a story on Afghanistan can be woven into the daily anti-China propaganda.

I wonder what the people of Afghanistan think of China's involvement compared to certain other countries?

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

This is an excellent opportunity for China to flex it's muscles and demonstrate to the world it's military superiority by pacifying the rebellious Afghanis.

Where the former world powers the United Kingdom, USSR and USA have failed, China can show the world how to succeed.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

This article is a bit too early and optimistic. China now may be cozy up with the Taliban and learn their thinking first, gauging the pros and cons. But do not forget that China will corrupt the Taliban's influential people first with money, prestige, and promises just like it did with Myanmar's military generals and elsewhere in the world. That will take care of the Xinjiang problem. The BRI, if successful with the Taliban, will pose a threat to the oil trade to most countries if that threat can be realized in the long run into the future. As for China, the eastern front includes Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Guam, the Philippines which can hinder China's power projection. In the south, China has opposition from Australia, and to some extend, from Indonesia. In South Asia, there is India. China's military power needs resources but now China's feeling of being trapped is not a nice feeling at all. A corridor to South Asia through Myanmar, Pakistan, Afghanistan will take care of India and the oil trade that China can support on land. Once this corridor is established and secured, China will attend to East Asia. For now, China may just do some planning as the chessboard is altered.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

WSJ News reported today that the US is considering increasing US bases to accommodate Afghan refugees.

He said that third countries were mentioned as the target, and US bases in Korea and Japan were also included.

OMG!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I could write a 100 page paper on my feelings about this situation. However, I will be short and to the point.

Priority 1 - Secure the Airbase, and set a parimeter at 1km to be controlled by US Military. Beyond that, setup check points on the road to the Airport. More US Check points, less Taliban interference.

Priority 2 - Send CH-47's into Kabul to evacuate American Citizens at a rendezvous point ( Send Troops to this point to secure the location) (Notify Americans via any means possible as to the date/time of extraction. Give at least a 4 day notice)

Priority 3 - Collapse the permiter back to the base, removing US check points. Destroy any equipment left behind.

Extract/Go Home.

4 Days later, INVADE AFGHANISTAN AGAIN.

Rinse, Wash, Repeat.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Is it worth to bring  Tomoyuki Tachikawa’s opinion to the attention of the prestigious JT readers?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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