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Japan eyes putting TPP into force without U.S.


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Face reality. Add China.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

Well that is proof positive that TPP was good for Japan.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Last TPP failed because USA tried to change Japanese rice habit to American long brain rice that could be sold to China but zChina was not member. To trade,, welcome China.'. Not just it is rich but it has pledenty consumers.

-12 ( +1 / -13 )

"Tokyo’s leadership in keeping the momentum for free trade."

That's a laugh. The Japanese govt has already promised to generously subsidize its domestic industries that are threatened by higher imports caused by free trade.

The Japanese want to lead - and undermine - a "free trade" deal simultaneously. That should be interesting.

11 ( +11 / -0 )

""Tokyo’s leadership in keeping the momentum for free trade.""

Thats BS a businessman in JP cant survive here as an importer because JP customs is BS just like all other Asian Customs BS if aint graft its something else. Who they think they foolin, only themselves, with their lopsided business deals those days are gone forever.

14 ( +16 / -2 )

@wowyz "a businessman in JP cant survive here as an importer because JP customs is BS"

Yup, I have to agree, I tried to import some things from the US -household items and ran across a myriad of red tape, from customs. Meanwhile J land wants to dump their products in the US an issue that D. Trump is watching very carefully these days.

9 ( +12 / -3 )

Japan is now the leader for Trade in Asia as the orange psychopath is a fool and needs to be removed from teh planet to save it from him. A prison cell and a death penalty conviction for TRUMP as he makes the world really unsafe and unfair. A trip to a 6 x 6 x 4 hole awaits him for war crimes and treason in the USA and the International Courts at the Hauge. Good for Japan screw Trumps America till we can revolt and take the USA back. Viva the revolution, God is on our side along with the world!

-13 ( +2 / -15 )

gokai_wo_maneku, I agree, an asian free trade deal without China on board is a joke. Had China been included instead of the US in the beginning a deal would be signed by now. With China included the other participating countries would have to pull their finger out regarding competitive manufacturing and business practices. I think that would be a better deal for consumers all round, than the proposed TPP deal that included the US, and only benefited the US. China is still an untapped market for those who are prepared to work hard and learn the different cultures surrounding business in Asia.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Japan eyes putting TPP into force without U.S.

Action speaks louder than words. It will never happen.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

I am skeptical, but I don't disagree with the general idea. The US is clearly trying to give up its position of power in the world and China isn't quite ready to take on the mantle. The only alternative is for non-superpowers to sort things out among themselves while the giants get their heads out of their ... waste-extraction orifices.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

re: Face reality. Add China.

Yeah and the same Chinese who come here to Japan and waste up all the resources driving up our costs.

IN return we get the junk that doesn't have any quality and ends up in overfilled landfills because the materials are too toxic and not worth recycling...think before you post ridiculous suggestions.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

If fact one of the main reasons of the TPP is to be competitive, adding China will kill the main objetive

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Face reality. Add China.

I say do the opposite and exclude China. In addition, they should add more neighboring SE countries. Japan will be better off working with more willing and greatful partners not looking to stab them in the back every chance they get.

China will add zero sum gain because like others have said, China will steal or use up all the resources it can until it can be copied or is depleted while trying to screw over everyone else in the process.

It will also give some leverage to China's neighbors that are constantly being bullied by them.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

OK, so people here don't like China. Then make the TPP without China and then make a unilateral trade agreement between the TPP countries and China. A market of 1.3 billion. And this could induce China to stop bullying its neighbors.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Last TPP failed because USA tried to change Japanese rice habit to American long brain rice that could be sold to China but zChina was not member. To trade,, welcome China.'. Not just it is rich but it has pledenty consumers.

FYI, the US grows koshihikari, nishiki, and sashinishiki rice as well. And no it failed because the carrot-top president is not a fan of large trade agreements and wants agreements between individual countries.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Wait, is this the Japan that was dragging it's feet, keeping every other country while it dilly-dallied. And now that the main player, USA, has pulled out, it's acting as the main player in TPP?

3 ( +5 / -2 )

I disagree with you on most of your points for this effort:

The USA will not join into something that Japan spearheads alone, when USA is not included from the start. Thus, it is foolish to believe that if Japan leads a TPP-Light renegotiation, that USA would later join. The world does not work that way. The minute that Japan attempts to include Taiwan into a revised TPP with other APAC countries, then China will really get ugly diplomatically, with Trade, and Military might. Japan has no chance to negotiate Taiwan into a TPP-revamp Agreement. Japan has no economic or military might to convince Taiwan to go against the 'One China' policy; only USA has that might. If PM-Abe tries this, without USA involved from the start, Japan will be in real trouble. This is TERRIBLE idea.

The damage is already done in Japan and throughout APAC region by the terminated TPP. All APAC countries will be very leery about rejoining a multi-lateral Trade negotiation lead only by Japan (too many rice-bowl issues; too many complaints against Japan to overcome if they are the lead). Prime Minister Abe rushed to meet with Hillary Clinton a couple months before (a mistake), but then he commented to the Japan press on 21 November (after meeting with President Trump) that the TPP without the USA is meaningless. Some ex-pat Americans who live and conduct consulting in Japan have berated PM-Abe for these comments, but they are the ones that are committing career suicide by not understanding the precarious nature of the balance PM-Abe faces between maintenance of USA-Japan alliance and that of serving the interests of his Japanese constituency.

Short-sighted 'bloviators' at 'think-tankers' are encouraging PM-Abe to bluster-forward with a hastily-modified TPP Agreement with the other Countries (minus USA), and hope that eventually USA will join that renewed effort at some point in future (e.g. 4-years from now when new Elections). Japan is sad that their influence on the world stage has slipped, and wants to hold a leadership role, particularly in light of the hegemony of China towards all the other nations. Unfortunately for Japan, if USA is not part of the Agreement, then it is 'economically meaningless'. However, that does not mean that Japan cannot continue to be ONE OF THE leaders in APAC, in collaboration with USA. Remember - it is not necessary to reach an Agreement at first, but only to seek an adjustment, ideally an improvement, in the issue or in the Trade Relationship.

Without USA in the mix, there is very little incentive for these 10-countries to attempt another grand Multi-Lateral Agreement. The now-terminated TPP required that for it to go into force, countries that ratify the agreement through their domestic legislative processes must represent 85% of the total Gross Domestic Product of the twelve original signatory countries. The U.S. GDP represents 62% of TPP signatory nations. That means Japan and the other 10-countries only make up a tiny 23% of combined GDP of the original TPP gathering. There does not seem good justification for arduous and complex negotiating effort just to gather this smallish 23% of GDP into one Agreement.

If Japan attempts to negotiate with USA on a Bi-Lateral nature (or new Multi-Lateral nature) then Japan has a somewhat-improved chance to negotiate a trade agreement that serves its own economic interests if it has alternatives to a no-deal—a longstanding insight of negotiation dynamics. Japan will almost surely attempt to use the potential Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), as a bargaining chip against the USA. However, Japan should remember that they can NOT wait for USA Populism to wane, hoping that the USA will re-engage on a Trade Deal that Japan spear-headed after collapse of TPP. If USA is not one of the Agreement-Leads, then the USA will be forced to subvert any 'TPP-light' Agreements that Japan or China attempt to orchestrate to protect Bi-Lateral Agreements. Thus, at this moment, it appears to be 'All-in (with USA), or All-out'. However, the value is that a renegotiated Multi-Lateral Agreement, with USA included in the mix, does not have to start from scratch.

The USA will always be one of the most important Economic & Trade Leadership roles in APAC. Japan and the APAC countries understand this. The other APAC countries will not follow if only led by Japan. Some countries will most likely throw much effort into attempting to convince President Trump to renegotiate the Multi-Lateral Trade Agreement in a way to ensure continued USA participation, rather than trying to negotiate such an Agreement with Japan only as the Lead.

One of the biggest problems with USA-Ratification of the TPP in Congress was the feckless handling of the TPP negotiations and the absolute veil of secrecy caused by Obama and the US Trade Representative (USTR) team. This was compounded by PM-Abe blindly following Obama and secretly negotiating with Hillary Clinton in hopes that she would revive the TPP when she won. Unfortunately, PM-Abe's dreams failed with Hillary's. Hillary Clinton is equally feckless; had she won the election, the TPP would still have been terminated. When Obama and his USTR kept all matters of the TPP secret, except for participation by their favored jumbo-corporations (e.g. Sugar Industry; Clothing; Pharmaceuticals; Insurance; Boeing; etc.) and PM-Abe, then Congress and the entire USA business communities were left worrying incessantly about how it might affect their business interests. Everyone's fear of the unknown was much scarier than the reality.

With or without the TPP, USA and Japan will be able to collaboratively draft and negotiate a bi-lateral or multi-lateral Agreement that stymies China's apparent economic advantages (e.g. undemocratic, does not respect human rights, the rule of law, transparency, copyrights, environment, etc.). Then USA will be able to influence the other countries in the region to follow this because of the concept of collaborative security, which produces economic and trade growth. This will then counterweight China's closed market and anti-competitive legal system.

I completely disagree with your idea for creation of a TPP Headquarters in Osaka; what a foolish idea. Although the promoters of this concept may have gathered a group of Japanese Professors (e.g. Toshihiko Hayashi) and ex-pat American Professors for this effort, they are just looking 'starry-eyed', at Singapore's APEC Secretariat and Jakarta's ASEAN Secretariat, when you recommended that a $100-Million Dollar TPP-Headquarters should be established in Osaka (and theoretically manned by them). None of the other Asian Countries (nor President Trump and the USA) will feel this is a necessary infrastructure item. Everyone will see this as a Staffing & Budget scheme just to keep the professors gainfully employed and to throw work at the Universities in the local area. All of the Professors all work in Osaka Universities, that is why they promote Kansai as the best location. I completely disagree that Osaka would even be the best place for such a HQ. No one wants to travel Thousands of Miles to get to Japan, and then travel Hundreds of Miles again away from the Tokyo Capital and Business Community, just to get to Osaka. Perhaps it would be possible for Japan (and USA) to 'thumb their noses at China' by putting such Headquarters in China's backyard at Fukuoka, Hiroshima, Guam, Ho Chi Minh City, or Taiwan (Osaka is too expensive to get to). Additionally, I completely disagree with the Professor's suggestion that such Multi-Lateral Trade Headquarters should have 'Diplomatic Immunity' (just trying to protect themselves from their bad recommendations, and the diplomats bad-decisions).
-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Japan's PM-Abe could have used the TPP ratification as justification for needed domestic Japan reforms that were contentious to his people and businesses. However, it does not have to end with the failure of the TPP. As long as the USA and Japan negotiate the follow-on Trade Agreement, then PM-Abe will still have that justification available to him. The key aspect is to accomplish the negotiations quickly. One of the biggest complaints by American businesses and Congress about the TPP has been that...although Obama refused to keep Congress informed as it was being negotiated, Obama allowed members of the Industry Trade Advisory Committee on Intellectual Property Rights to have access to texts all along. These members include representatives of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the Recording Industry Association of America, the Entertainment Software Association, as well as firms such as Gilead Sciences, Johnson and Johnson, Verizon, Cisco Systems, and General Electric. Obama and USTR negotiated for intellectual property provisions that it knew could not achieve through an open democratic process. For example, it includes provisions similar to those of the failed Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA), and Protect Intellectual Property Act (PIPA), and the Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) that the European Parliament ultimately rejected.

Thus, Prime Minister Abe should stop dreaming about creating a new TPP-Light, led by Japan, and instead try to negotiate a new Bi-Lateral Agreement with USA...because without USA in the mix, Japan's economy will continue to flounder aimlessly....particularly in light of the fact that Japan is struggling to influence a successful Agreement with the EU...Obviously Japan's influence did not stop BREXIT.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

How does a trade agreement with a dwindling population with dwindling purchasing power benefit Japan? Huh? I think Abe just wanted to be a part of a trade agreement to look like he's important. Twist: The age of trade agreements is long gone. Double Twist: no one told the oyajis who are bent on destroying Japan's future in every way possible.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

How does a trade agreement with a dwindling population with dwindling purchasing power benefit Japan?

TPP12 (w/ US) is estimated to contribute 1.37% of GDP to Japanese economy. TPP11 (w/o US) is estimated to contribute 1.11% of GDP to Japanese economy.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

TPP without the US is like natto without soybeans.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Yup, I have to agree, I tried to import some things from the US -household items and ran across a myriad of red tape, from customs

Unless your are talking about the DUTY rate for specific items I suspect Customs is NOT your problem, but rather regulatory authorities that check/test, approve or NOT approve items to be imported.

like food/drug issues, safety, electrical aspects emission standards etc etc. THAT is where you get stuck, as Customs wont allow an entry for commercial purposes unless the goods are okayed by these OTHER organizations in advance.

However you look at your business idea goes up in smoke, just not Customs that is killing your ideas

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Without China and/or the US, TPP is meaningless. Japan will need to swallow their pride and abandon TPP. Even Canada and most of the Latin states are already gravitating towards China for more trade opportunities. So that leaves TPP without any meaningful purpose.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

@Michael Erickson...dude walls of text are NEVER cool! Learn to use paragraphs and spacing, there is NO WAY I am going to read that post..

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Short grain rice makers in upper Calif. still refuse to sell their rice to Japan. Sushi booms in USA hasn't stopped. It just created more sales of Calf. rice. China Go Go and some other chain Chinese restaurants offer long grain rice sushi but Americans dislike. Asked whip not to use short grain they said not easy to find short grain in super market either. True.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Without the US market to sell to, the TPP lost its appeal.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

@yubaru:In USA, only botany rice and Cal Rose are available. ;I was writing USA,not Okinawa PX.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

When Obama planned TPP, he said Japanese should eatrice from Mississippi and Missouri. Then both Trump and Hillary opposed saying in NY, they eat Calif. Rice. And Obama suggestion disappeared. That was time Clinton and Trump were best family friends.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Keep out China. Add Taiwan quick. Add individual US states, such as California.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It's a great idea. Congratulations.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

If USA is included, Japan will be pushed to purchase left side handled wide cars that are made in ISA, not in China. With added shipping cost on Pacific Ocean.****

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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