Japan opposition leadership race begins with 4 hopefuls

....whether the CDPJ will continue to align with other opposition forces, including the Japanese Communist Party, to jointly back single candidates against the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's Liberal Democratic Party.

That turned out to be a bit of a dumb idea. It allowed the LDP to hammer them on national security.

I used to be a support for LDP, however since Abe PM took office and did a kind of untidemocracy, violation of independence of juridiction and the constituation and the revision of an official document and etc, I departed from LDP. On the otherhand opp. camp seems to be weak and had not accuse LDP effectively and address those issues! Fisrt of all, the political family dynacity and its nepotizm goverment should be stopped, and also lawmakers' income including fringe benefis would amout to $1.0 million, which is so high compared to foreign countries, so it should be decreased to an averaged office workers' standard.

CDPJ is doomed to oblivion

No one expects the opposition to do anything.

an alternative to the current government, adding he will try to "expand our support base by reaffirming our stance as a liberal party."

So it’s the Liberal Democratic Party or this Liberal Constitutional Democratic Party the is it?

I like Ishin as the alternative.

Look how these rabble will melt into LDP and other parties in the end

Izumi has the backing of an intraparty group that he leads with political veteran Ichiro Ozawa, while Osaka comes from the liberal faction that is the largest force in the party. Nishimura is backed by a group led by former Prime Minister Naoto Kan, and Ogawa has won endorsements from supporters of Hiroshi Ogushi, who has decided not to run in the race.

Factionalism a la CDPJ, eh? We saw what it did when the DPJ was running the show and the Ozawa & Hatoyama did their (faux)-pas-de-deux for everybody to see.

At best, the CDPJ remains at their current support-level. At worse, well, split into various sub-parties going nowhere which will re-merge at a later point or member defect for more "promising" parties. We've seen it before...

Did a pulse survey with friends on the election night at 21:00 when it became clear that it was a debacle for the opposition (full disclosure: neither I nor my friends can stomach the LDP and my friends would prefer to eaten rotten sushi than vote for them).

Results: Most are considering to drop the CDPJ with for some the JCP as an alternative (personally not sure why as these guys have been hovering around 3% since like forever and even lost 2 seats this time) and for others to vote for Reiwa (which manages to increase by 2 representatives). And none of them could understood how you can consider voting to oppose a conservative ruling party (LDP) by voting for an opposition...conservative party (Isshin)...

Anyway, we'll see how the CDPJ does at the other house election I think next year. Not holding my breath though.

If Isshin does as well again, with a few more election-gains in the future, I would not be surprised if the LDP would start considering to drop Komeito (which sometimes ends up being a "brake" to their plans) to partner with Isshin (which is ideologically more in-line with them, I think).

blueToday  07:43 pm JST

And none of them could understood how you can consider voting to oppose a conservative ruling party (LDP) by voting for an opposition...conservative party (Isshin)...

Just a guess, but maybe some conservatively-inclined voters think they would be swapping the LDP for a more competent and less corrupt conservative alternative. I think most, though, will stick with what they've got already because, well, they're conservative.

@Simon Foston

blueToday  07:43 pm JST

*And none of them could understood how you can consider voting to oppose a conservative ruling party (LDP) by voting for an opposition...conservative party (Isshin)...*

Just a guess, but maybe some conservatively-inclined voters think they would be swapping the LDP for a more competent and less corrupt conservative alternative. I think most, though, will stick with what they've got already because, well, they're conservative.

Good point, but ultimately both LDP and CDPJ lost seats (with the CDPJ proportionally losing more) and Isshin came out as the big winner this time. At face value, it therefore looks like some CDPJ voters did switch to Isshin.

But, true, there may be other mechanics at work. A big data analysis (if available) may help to dig into that and confirm the details. But again, I'm not sure if the level of political analysis is that, err, "sophisticated" in Japan...? (Somebody knows??)

blueToday  01:18 am JST

Good point, but ultimately both LDP and CDPJ lost seats (with the CDPJ proportionally losing more) and Isshin came out as the big winner this time. At face value, it therefore looks like some CDPJ voters did switch to Isshin.

I've no doubt at all that's what happened, especially in and around Kansai. I know the CDPJ have picked up seats from the LDP before so clearly for certain voters there are things other than ideology that they prioritise.

And none of them could understood how you can consider voting to oppose a conservative ruling party (LDP) by voting for an opposition...conservative party (Isshin)...

Depends what one thinks “conservative” means.

If it’s more of the same with just difference in the details, for me both LDP and CDPJ are conservative. It’s just the same but who gets the 50 trillion yen. A minor detail.

Which special vested interest groups have the ear of the politicians. Another minor detail.

Ishin comes in with a big result and suddenly the free money for politicians comes under the microscope. Ishin isn’t beholden to any group of vested interests.

They may not want to spray money around and hike tax rates like crazy people, but that doesn’t mean they are “conservative”. A vote for Ishin is a vote for change - change is not conservative by definition, it’s not keeping what we have but changing it.