Japan, Taiwan to begin talks on evacuation plans if China invades

This is a very real threat. I predict that if this happens the US will give free citizenship to all 25 million fleeing Taiwanese.

Is there a need though? Taiwan is a small island. The moment China large military attack, it will be quickly over by taking out military targets. Is not like they will target civilians. I doubt Taiwan would even have the time at that moment to help with the evacuating of japanese citizens. Usually the safest option is just to hang tight and wait till it's over. Why run?

There is no time to evacuate once the invasion starts.

Taiwan will fall within 1 week of the commencement of the PLA invasion. Taiwan is no Ukraine, Taiwanese have no will power to defend themselves and looks more like the fall of Saigon and Kabul than Ukrainian resistance.

Of course there is a long build-up lead time ahead of the invasion, but the invasion itself will be swift and brief.

The best Japan can do is to evacuate Japanese citizens via chartered airliners and ferries during this lead time, then negotiate the evacuation of any surviving Japanese citizens after PLA completes the conquest of Taiwan.

@Erik Morales

I predict that if this happens the US will give free citizenship to all 25 million fleeing Taiwanese.

No, just select Taiwanese semiconductor executives and engineers to run TSMC fabs in the US. Those people will be airlifted out to Okinawa then to the US.

The rest will have to stay in China and swap their passports to the red one that reads "People's Republic of China".

Beijing won't be taking this lying down, that's for sure. I think this is an indirect message to China that Japan is taking the cross-strait situation more seriously. But I have to agree with the above commenters though, Taiwan can sure put up a fight, but this isn't a Ukraine and the defenders are basically trapped in a kill box that can hopefully prevent any successful landing operation by the PLA. What I am looking out for is the contingency plans by the US and other regional powers should a cross-strait war begin.

If you follow the media in Taiwan, it’s has been negative towards the US since Ukraine and the Pelosi ordeal. They criticize how the US doesn’t send troops to defend Ukraine and won’t when China moves in. Then they complain about buying old weapons. The US doesn’t owe Taiwan anything.

Taiwan is no Ukraine, Taiwanese have no will power to defend themselves and looks more like the fall of Saigon and Kabul than Ukrainian resistance.

The average Taiwanese guy are in shirts and slacks, the engineering types with glasses, i168cm 60 kg. They are salarymen. They don’t plan on fighting and will surrender. This is from interviews with those in the military serving their 4 month conscription.

If japan intervenes in Chinas internal affairs militarily, the whole Japanese government should be imprisoned for breaking Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.

The rest will have to stay in China and swap their passports to the red one that reads "People's Republic of China".

No. The CCP will refuse to give them any passports for at least 20 yrs. Heck, they are retaining passports of current mainland Chinese citizens when they return home for a visit today.

When China invades Taiwan, they won't pre-announce it. They will claim it is a pre-planned military exercise within their territory, so there wasn't any reason to tell anyone about it. It doesn't matter that everyone in the world, including all Chinese citizens know Taiwan is a separate country.

Taiwan has stockpiled weapons of all levels from bullets to antiship, anti-aircraft missiles and is currently working to stockpile even more. Taiwan is watching Ukraine carefully and learning.

Most Taiwanese men are required to complete military service, learning basic defense skills with the aim of being able to assist Taiwan’s professional military in the event of a war.

This mandated service is just 4 months, but will likely be extended, perhaps back to 2 yrs, as it was previously. Unfortunately, previous mandated service didn't concentrate on warfare and fighting, but manual labor and paperwork. That will need to change if they want to repel a CCP invasion.

@theFu

When China invades Taiwan, they won't pre-announce it. 

No need to. An assembly of 900K invasion troops can be monitored months ahead, just like how the US was able to predict the Russian invasion of Ukraine even though the involved troop was 200K.

But the sad thing is there is nothing the US can do about it, other than warning Taiwanese to get ready and ship in as much weapons as possible before the invasion.

Taiwan has stockpiled weapons of all levels from bullets to antiship, anti-aircraft missiles and is currently working to stockpile even more. 

They are useless as the PLA will make sure they will all be taken out during the first 6 hours of invasion through missile strikes.

This is just another little show to anger the CCP; in practical terms, this would never work (China is not Russia and Taiwan is not Ukraine); by the time they start thinking about making a decision, Taiwan and the Taiwanese would’ve been swallowed already; the best thing to do is to worry about your own citizens (you have every right to ask for/demand their safety).

My ex mother in law “Evacuated” (escaped, is more like it) from Okinawa TO Taiwan, to escape Tokyo’s War in Okinawa, now look at things.

Good move. But need more: in case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Japan should cut off diplomatic relationship with Beijing and help Taiwan defend. Or it will lose the Nansei Islands.

For a moment I though the article was about evacuating the nationals of Taiwan, quickly realized that would be beyond impossible.

Of course the Japanese government should look out for the welfare of its citizens in now living in Taiwan. The need to evacuate large numbers of Japanese is not even limited to some theoretical Mainland invasion. Taiwan, just as Japan, regularly suffers from dangerous earthquakes and typhoons.

Japan- you can stay for 90 days before we arrest you for overstaying a visa and good luck with seeking asylum, we don’t do that unless it’s for an image gain tehe

taiwan- huh thanks?

Taiwan will go the way of Hong Kong. The US has already plans and is covering its bases; e.g. the semiconductor industry and TSMC. It’s time to move on to the next attempt to poke China: Myanmar.

If it were that easy, the Chinese would already have invaded and occupied Taiwan. At a first glance it looks easy, of course. But at which costs? A few long rangers on Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and such and they are quickly panicking and economically done too. If I were ‘Taiwan’ I would not attack the few incoming ships and such, those can be taken out when have set boots on the ground, no, I would program all available missiles and instruct all jet pilots to immediately damage all bigger Chinese cities, so that it will end at least in a draw. The Chinese aren’t probably so stupid to risk much more than they could win, hopefully.

This is a very real threat. I predict that if this happens the US will give free citizenship to all 25 million fleeing Taiwanese.

Not gonna happen. The Taiwanese people won't - and don't want to - be going anywhere.

The free world will ensure they can stay in their home island, free Taiwan. The PRC have the fight of their lives on their hands if they are dumb enough to invade free Taiwan. They wouldn't dare.

Not gonna happen. The Taiwanese people won't - and don't want to - be going anywhere.

For the vast majority of Taiwanese, this is true. There are many people from Taiwan in the US already, living mostly good lives.

Thats because Taiwan isn't its own officially recognized country and Tokyo officially has recognized the one china.

That's one of those wink-wink-nudge-nudge agreements that didn't really matter until Xi took over the CCP and started being internationally nasty towards countries and companies doing business with Taiwan.

“The Republic of China is an independent and sovereign state. Taiwan’s sovereignty belongs to the 23 million people of Taiwan. Only the 23 million people of Taiwan may decide on the future of Taiwan”.

All the little CCP temper tantrums are adding up. The world sees these petty things and has started for ignore the requests that China has made on others for their participation. The passing of the anti-succession law by the CCP as a way to retroactively claim Taiwan doesn't work internationally. They've been doing this for a long time too: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/feb/09/weather-stations-china In the current heat wave in China, the TV weather and weather Apps all refuse to display any temperatures over 38°C. Of course there are thousands of social network posts showing 45°C in those cities.

A govt that lies about the weather and you expect anyone to believe any other statistics? Really?

Fighto.....

Not gonna happen. The Taiwanese people won't - and don't want to - be going anywhere.

True, they also don't any major change. A few want to fully integrate with the mainland, a few more want full independence but the vast majority want to keep things exactly how they are right now. War mongers both in the US and in China should take note of this.

Taiwan is part of China.

No it's a sovereign independent nation.

Remember, Russia thought Ukraine was belonged to Russia. How'd that turn out? Have you asked the families of the tens of thousands of dead Russians?

@Sven Asai

But at which costs?

Cost doesn't matter to Xi and CCP, be it money or human lives.

Taiwan is part of China. You can’t “invade” your own country oh USA propaganda puppets. You’re a joke. A BAD joke.

We recognize the CCP playbook: Https://youtu.be/RfFwBWABsNk

Taiwan hasn't been part of China since it gave the island to Japan in the 1800s. Japan has more claim to Taiwan than mainland China does. It actually governed the island. One country can't claim that another country is theirs in the civilized world. That starts wars.

Claiming Taiwan is part of China is a bad joke. It shows a lack of historical understanding.

If China attacks, it will precede with some claim of having military drills to explain the build up. Russia did the same thing right before they attacked Ukraine.

Let's not forget they have some drills coming up with Russia and South American countries in the near future.

Taiwan is a small island. There is no where to go or flee. If the Taiwanese plan to fight like Ukraine then every square inch of ground will be contested. It will be hard for a large scale force to make land on Taiwan unless the Chinese army is willing to kill a large number of the population. For optics, it will be very hard for the CCP to justify that to its people and the world. It is hard to play the victim with that much blood on their hands. The Chinese economy could not handle a boycott like Russia. Russia has large amounts of land but the GDP of Texas. China is a different story. A financial boycott would see a significant shrinking of the Chinese economy.

Taiwan does not have to win the war with China just a stale mate. Taiwan simply needs to fire long range missiles at major Chinese cities during the invasion and a cease fire will commence. That might be enough to start an uprising in China. China will of course attempt to set up a permanent military base on the island after the conflict like the Russians did with Crimea.

The decision for Taiwan will be are they willing to allow China to establish a military base on the island to maintain a cease fire.

Since Denny hates the US military so much because of his father issues then the US could move that unwanted military base in Okinawa to Taiwan. That would solve the invasion issue and Denny's issue.

Of course, Japan thinks only of itself.

No it's a sovereign independent nation.

Does your country recognize it as such?

Alan HarrisonSep. 3  06:52 am JST

Of course, Japan thinks only of itself

Oh yea, Japan should be responsible for evacuating every foregner in Taiwan and getting them all back to their respective home countries. Where do you come up with treasures?

GillislowTierSep. 2  03:16 pm JST

Japan- you can stay for 90 days before we arrest you for overstaying a visa and good luck with seeking asylum, we don’t do that unless it’s for an image gain tehe

taiwan- huh thanks?

Staying for 90 days under a Tourist Visa or Visa Waiver Program if applicable is standard for all countries, as well as potentially being arrrested and deported.

But this article is talking about Japanese residents of Taiwan. Not tourists.