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Japan to miss FY2020 GDP target of Y600 tril yen

By Minami Funakoshi

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Japan will not meet its goal of reaching nominal gross domestic product of 600 trillion yen ($5.7 trillion) in fiscal 2020

Here's the thing. It was just another banner headline emanating from the dreamy Abe dome designed to maintain the hoopla about Abenomics while keeping eyes away from his other, more important plans for the country.

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Abe, however, remains optimistic. He told reporters after a meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, the government’s advisory panel, that Japan will work toward achieving its 600 trillion yen GDP target through reforms in spending, and added that it is sticking to its goal of reaching a primary budget surplus in fiscal 2020.

Another Abe hallmark. Sweeping statements without any hard numbers or concrete strategies to back them up. Wouldn't want to step on too many Old Boys' Club toes now, would we? No member wants their public-purse gravy train to grind to a halt!

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Talking about 2024, 2020 but not about 2016? No economic data released to avoid criticism of Abe(nomics)?!

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Until policy-makers start making realistic GDP predictions based on a declining and aging population, the reality of climate change and increasing income and wealth inequality, which means no-growth predictions, the target will never be reached and we will keep being bored by this news. It is now time to talk seriously about a shift to a post-growth economy. Given its demographics, Japan should be at the forefront of this movement.

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Abe can't create sustainable growth, he can only redistribute wealth through his out of control government spending programs.

Implement structural reforms, get bureaucrats out of the way of innovative new business and the production of Fresh New Things, and then there will be economic growth.

I have money to spend, but nothing that I want to spend it on. I already have stuff. To get growth, we need production of new things and services that I don't have and don't even know I want yet. What is the next iPhone? Abe hasn't got a grilling clue what those things are either, and they sure aren't maglev trains in decades from now.

It is people who take risks starting new businesses and creating new products that will drive growth. Abe needs only to nurture the business environment if it is growth he truly wants.

But central planning nutters understand none of this.

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Japan should be a leader in solar power and other renewable energy sources, but Abe has all but ignored this.

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swing and a miss

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So the government's own projections show that Abenomics has failed but the man himself still insists it is working. The man is a dangerous, delusional nutcase.

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More Dame-nomics...

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What do these numbers mean in context? How were they determined? What does failure to achieve them mean in terms of impact on residents' lives? What is the connection to economic reality?

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Can Abe and gang hit anything with those bloody arrows?

He must be the worst shot in history.

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We still have time for a couple more large stimulus projects between now and 2020, two more stimulus spending projects of the same size of the latest one will actually push Japan past it's goal. And, believe it or not, deficit-spent stimulus spending by the government is actually added to GDP growth, despite the fact that the costs of this spending must be eventually taken from and subtracted from the profits of businesses, and the salaries of the people. This is like buying a new car for $50,000, and saying that the purchase adds $50k to your income, despite the fact that you had to borrow all of the money to buy the car. If a business was as creative with it's accounting as the government is with theirs, the business owners would be tossed in jail for fraud.

If you subtract public sector spending from Japan's GDP, it would be fantastically smaller than the current figures show.

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