Taiwan should 'rock the boat' before China swallows it, says Japanese professor

They are in a tough situation. I suspect China is biding its time until Tsai is elected out due to the economic hardship that China has partially caused. Its obvious China is using economics as a weapon. That is their standard practice. Same with South Korea. Entirely standard practice. When Tsai is removed they will re-initiate the project of integration. Why instigate war and invite the U.S to cause trouble?

Those that support Beijing will stay behind and those that don't, if they have any sense, will be busy squirreling away every cent they can for an eventual move to the West or elsewhere. That's one reason why even though I want a dramatic reduction in Chinese immigration to Australia, I think different rules should apply to Taiwan.

I hope Japan will also be prepared to take in ethnic Chinese from Taiwan with a democratic outlook. It would provide Japanese companies with Mandarin speaking nationals while avoiding the ultra-nationalist element that increasingly makes up nationals from mainland China.

@Matt Hartwell, when the Taiwanese start moving to Japan. this professor will start singing a different tune. He wanted taiwan to fight his wars, but don't want taiwanese to migrate to japan and dilute their "purity".

He wanted taiwan to fight his wars, but don't want taiwanese to migrate to japan and dilute their "purity".

Under normal circumstances, Japan is under no obligation, but I can easily see a humanitarian crisis developing if China does decide to invade and its countries like the U.S and its partners that Taiwanese, and just as importantly, the international community, would seek out for support. There would be significant pressure on Japan to do its part being virtually next door. There not going to call on Europe as a first stop are they? and ASEAN countries may have a limited capacity to help.

Many would probably choose South Korea, but some may choose Japan. Lets face it. Your average Taiwanese has much more in common with a Japanese national than a U.S national in terms of culture so I should hope Japan is planning for this outcome even if its very low level at this point.

Absolutely foolish advice. Not treading on the dragon's tail does not mean it will not attempt to eat you in the future - but doing so certainly guarantees it will do so now.

China is aging, and as its economy slows, it has no choice but to more closely integrate with the world (as recent market relaxations have shown). Xi is the face of a dragon enfeebled in many ways. No is exactly the time for patience.

I would like to see the Quad - U.S, Japan, India & Australia do more in terms of trade with Taiwan. Not talking about defense. That's a bridge too far, but certainly they could do more in terms of trade and tourism. Taiwan has been making solid efforts in ASEAN but its hard for ASEAN countries to really embrace that relationship with China looking over their shoulder and with so much of their trade going to China, which in turn, brings us to one of the key reasons why ASEAN countries should be hedging their bets in looking for greater cooperation with the quad.

Time is on Taiwan's side. They should just wait and maintain the status quo for as long as possible. The more old people die out, the less likely it is that younger generations who have only known freedom and democracy will be prepared to exchange it for reunification. China is on the path to becoming an even more dystopian state (ie. the social credit system) and the economic miracle may soon be coming to an abrupt end. Taiwan just needs to look at the shameless broken promises in Hong Kong to see what China has in store.

It's alarming for a professor at a public symposium to encourage Taiwan to strain their ties with the Peoples Republic of China! If we had this kind of professors worldwide, I think the world would've been engulfed in war at this moment! For instance, Saudi Arabia would've probably launched a blokade and an invasion of Iraq if Iraq encouraged multiple of Arabian countries to strain their ties with Saudi Arabia!

This professor is playing a dangerous game at a public stage! Probably been hired by Abe to express dissatisfaction with the growing Chinese influence in the region!

The likelyhood of a technological weapon or breakthrough that makes old weapons or tactics suddenly obsolete is also quite high in the next 20-30.

It's alarming for a professor at a public symposium to encourage Taiwan to strain their ties with the Peoples Republic of China

The professor is pointing out a simple fact Taiwan faces: Do they want to remain free or become a slave state under the dictator ship of the Communist party? If the first, then you'd better start doing something before too late. It's really a common-sense comment. Otherwise, Taiwan will become like Hong Kong where Communist power slowly invading the land and chipping away people's freedom.

Definitely Taiwan has to try to maintain its independence by as many means as are available to it. And there are several good suggestions here as to how. The best one is probably by the country raising its world profile. Everyone knows of its existence but little much more. Its tourism industry could be developed further, its temples and surf beaches better publicised, "Made in Taiwan" could be made renowned for the quality its goods do indeed possess, and by increasing contact the intelligence and good manners of its people would become more common knowledge

I agree that time is on Taiwan's side. Every year the younger people see themselves more as "Taiwanese" and the old people who actually remember the connection to mainland China are diminishing. Whereas some lands boldly declare "independence" raising concerns about it's ability to actually carry itself, Taiwan has and continues to already prove it. It's high time that China retract it's threat.

FreshmeatToday 04:50 pm JST@Matt Hartwell, when the Taiwanese start moving to Japan. this professor will start singing a different tune. He wanted taiwan to fight his wars, but don't want taiwanese to migrate to japan and dilute their "purity".

Could you show is where in the above article there is any mention or reference to suggest that?

LagunaToday 05:10 pm JST Absolutely foolish advice. Not treading on the dragon's tail does not mean it will not attempt to eat you in the future - but doing so certainly guarantees it will do so now.

Not treading on the dragon's tail doesn't necessarily mean it won't eat you now either. Unless China retracts it's position that they may "take Taiwan with military force", that risk always remains. You are effectively suggesting that the entire population of Taiwan continue to live with basically a gun to their head forever.

"Unless you are willing to risk something, you're not going to gain anything,"

Well, how awfully kind of this gentleman to not volunteer himself but to volunteer others to do what he wants and thinks best!

OssanAmerica: "I agree that time is on Taiwan's side."

If it were a land dispute with Japan, yes, certainly, but not with China, unfortunately. I wish Taiwan COULD declare independence, but it does not matter how long or how much time passes, China will NOT let it happen, and with their GROWING power it never will. In fact, any bold move as this moronic so-called "professor" suggests would be met with sheer force and see any independence they currently have go the way of the samurai.

"Not treading on the dragon's tail doesn't necessarily mean it won't eat you now either. Unless China retracts it's position that they may "take Taiwan with military force", that risk always remains."

Yeah, so Taiwan should just speed it along and get the idea over with, making China's military force a reality. That's just about as foolish as the "logic" of the professor.

"Could you show is where in the above article there is any mention or reference to suggest that?"

It's the prevailing attitude here. Just look at how they talk about what to do with North Korean refugees in a war that a lot of old politicians in Japan say they would support the US starting; some even said they should make a law stating they could SHOOT NK refugees approaching Japan. They would never allow Taiwanese fleeing to come and live here, either, this guy included. Hell, you've argued in favor of Japanese immigration laws plenty.

The status quo is probably about the best Taiwan can hope for. For all intents and purposes Taiwan is an independent nation, with its own government, military, border controls, currency, laws and so on. If they can hold on to that then great.

I don't know why some people here are saying time is on Taiwan's side, when many cross-strait analysts from around the world have already said the opposite.

Even professor provocateur here is admitting it in the article. They want to increase the tension between the strait in the hope China would do something that changes the status quo. But China won't do that. They know there's only about two that'll happen:

1.) The more time moves forward, the more Taiwan's economy will be too dependent on China. In many ways, it already is, which will only lead to one thing eventually. It may not necessarily be unification, but for sure it's not heading towards independence. I even read many young Taiwanese even see the mainland more as an opportunity.

2.) Taiwan will do something drastic, like being the one to change the status quo. And that will the end of any independence they have now. It will just hasten China's ultimate goal.

Matt Hartwell

 It would provide Japanese companies with Mandarin speaking nationals

LOL, to service who? Mainland Chinese customers?!?! Haha.

Oh, by the way, working for Japanese companies to be the designated Mandarin-speaker is probably a better and more productive thing to do than changing your timezone. My goodness this professor is laughable. Like what better way to encourage Taiwanese to maintain their freedom and independence than to point out that changing their timezone is one of the only few remaining options they have left. What's the other one? Ditching the metric system?

Mind your own business, unless ordered by USA.

How would prof Minohara react if a Chinese professor advocates Okinawa independence?

"The reality is that China will eventually swallow you," he said. "It's going to happen."

A Washington-based Project 2049 Think Tank publication titled "The Chinese Invasion Threat" by Ian Eaton states that China finalized secret plans to invade Taiwan in 2020 with a rapid massive missile assault on Taiwan, naval and air blockades, bombings, and amphibious landings of 400,000 soldiers on Taiwan's shores.

With the annexation of Taiwan, China also plans to attack nearby U.S. military bases. (Given the proximity of Okinawa to Taiwan, no wonder Onaga wants the U.S. military out of Okinawa.)

China considers the annexation of Taiwan as the "ultimate goal and solution to cross-strait tensions."

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3268316

http://freebeacon.com/national-security/chinas-secret-military-plan-invade-taiwan-2020/

As the UN, US and Japan focuses on the North Korean situation and being diverted away from Taiwan, China could pull off this surprise attack on Taiwan. Such a surprise attack "would be worse than Pearl Harbor and 9/11 combined."

Is it any wonder why China builds a huge military base in the South China Sea, embarks on massive military modernization and buildup, and backs Onaga's removal of U.S. military out of Okinawa?

Keep fanning that flame all around China, Abe san.

With the annexation of Taiwan, China also plans to attack nearby U.S. military bases.

Then immediately all cooperation between China & the West ends utterly and completely because the West is united under U.S defense through NATO and treaty level alliances such as ANZUS. If China wants to end that cooperation, they should go ahead and attempt to do that, but I fail to see how on Earth they would benefit.

They get to throw there weight around ASEAN under what would be increasing levels of hostility, especially in countries like Indonesia and Vietnam, and in the meantime, lose trade with a billion people throughout the West. And even if China control the South China Sea? So what? Look at the map and you will soon realize that virtually every ASEAN country can be accessed without ever going into the SCS. Two of three countries that would be difficult to access, Laos and Cambodia, are Chinese client states already, especially the later. Only Vietnam would be of serious loss and from what I hear, the U.S & Vietnam are ramping up relations, probably to ensure that never happens. Both Japan and South Korea can be accessed without going near the SCS.

Furthermore, the U.S, under the new quadrilateral dialogue has already discussed and is in ongoing discussion with the other 3 states about securing sea lanes in and outside of the SCS. Its an issue Japan has shown a strong interest in for obvious reasons. I suspect India will make significant strides in fortifying the Andaman Islands which are very close to Myanmar, Thailand etc under their Act East policy.

Taiwan's situation is bleak because the greatest democracy on earth, the USA backstabbed Taipei by cutting-off diplomatic ties in favor of Beijing and then ordering colony Japan to follow the master's move.

So Tosh should first ask Abe to rock the boat and recognize Japan-friendly democratic Taiwan diplomatically and stop following traitor Amerikano's footsteps.

Great country. The ROC is worth a visit if you've not been yet. Welcoming people, beautiful country and food to die for.

And Taiwan is cheap, (but not necessarily in a bad way) so your ¥ goes that bit further...

Many would probably choose South Korea, but some may choose Japan

Japan is way more popular in Taiwan. Going to Hokkaido, I’ve heard, for a honeymoon is equivalent to going to Hawaii for the Japanese. The Japanese built railroads and schools during its colonial rule. Almost all would choose Japan.

Taiwan's issues with China is not much different with that of N and S Korea, in that both situations resulted from civil wars following WWII and with US involvement. Both are dependent on US commitment to support and protect their existence and recognition as a nation (separate or not).

The problem is that none of the other nations will allow either if them to become totally independent nations. If they did, UN and the US, with China and Russia would have N and S Korea sign a peace treaty and end the war and establish two separate nations. If they did, UN and China and the US would allow Taiwan to be an independent nation.

For Taiwan, that hope is far and distant and long as they maintain a Chinese identity and heritage and China continues to "claim" it as their own. With the new powerful leadership and the extremely proud Chinese population, even a war would not settle such differences. For now, only Taiwan's annexation to China would probably end the stalemate as an extremely divided country with forced centralized control.

Just in case you don’t know, because it seems like some of you don’t know, this proffesor is American.

BTW, @Freshmeat what do you mean by “his wars”? I didn’t get that part.