LDP, partner on track for big election win, latest surveys show

Before I pass judgement on whether LDP back in power, if they will, is a good thing or bad thing, I'll see what actions they' will do and whether they can achieve what they promise. Most importantly, if they can improve the economy, the impending energy crisis and the nuclear disaster, Tohoku still needs much help from the govt to restore the community and the local economy. As for the Constitution, I also would like to see it revised, a nation's armed forces are to serve and protect the nation and it's people. right now, many Japanese sees the threats from China, North Korea and to a lesser extent, South Korea. The current wave to nationalism is growing, which it wouldn't be if China wasn't so aggressive and repeatedly enters into Japanese territorial waters, allowed violent demonstrations in China, and underhandedly affect the import/exports trading between Japan and China, i.e. rare-earths, denying/delaying entry of Japanese imports and to Japan. the volatile North Korea with it's kidnapping of Japanese citizens and launching rockets over Japan. South Korea and the Takeshima/Dokdo disputes.

Thomas - I disagree, DPJ changed LOTS. They basically reversed nearly every manifesto promise and as of now, are practically a slightly less popular reincarnation of the LDP. I'm amazed at how much they've changed. Just unfortunately, nothing that they were voted in to change...

Smith - I call the Future Party the "Ozawa Party", I have even called the LDP the "Incompetent Rightwing Maniacs Party" at some point. I call the parties what they are. If you are not smart enough to know that Komeito - founded by Daisaku Ikeda himself, located within a few hundred yards of his house, funded by SGI members, campaigned for by SGI members, unquestionably controlled by Ikeda is not a political front for the religion (which is a lovely group of very nice people that I have no problem with whatsoever), then I don't think you can really comment much on politics. I suggest starting with a lookup of the Komei League on Wikipedia. Komeito only disavowed links to SGI probably under legal advice that the JCP's threats of getting it liquidated as breaching the constitution were technically valid.

Komeito is a secular unaffiliated independent political body, in the way that pachinko is not gambling, and "health bars" are not brothels. They are illegal entities that the public willingly accepts and looks the other way upon - as they should. The constitutional separation of religion and politics imposed by America is an anachronism, and should be among the first thing to go when LDP amends the constitution. And if that happens, I GUARANTEE you that Komeito will go back to being an out of the closet religious party, as it already is. Which is cool - they are Japan's version of Germany's Christian Democrats. All good - but they ARE the Soka Gakkai Party, and EVERYONE knows that. No one would dream of voting for them otherwise.

Unfortunately, the DPJ's biggest downfall is that they are perceived as the pro-China party, at a time when China is trying seize control of the Senkaku islands.

“I feel betrayed by the DPJ which promised to change so much, but achieved so little. They came across as immature, disorganised and ineffective,” said Junko Makita, 59, a housewife in Takatsuki, a city of 360,000 just outside Osaka.

Come on, you can't change anything in just 1 term.

Hikozaemon: "It also amazes me that the Soka Gakkai Party..."

It amazes me that people are not smart enough to get the name right -- it's the Komeito Party, and it is a separate entity from the religion. or else it would be run by Diasuke Ikeda himself. Hence, it is not unconstitutional. I do agree with you that this whole forming coalitions thing is a farce, and the Komeito has to reverse many of its platform stances in order to back the LDP. Just goes to show you they are as fallible as any other party out there, and as eager to get some power that will help them influence decisions.

Mod - Apologies - cut and pasted too much - can you please remove?

It also amazes me that the Soka Gakkai Party stays in bed with the LDP throughout all this. The one thing I respect about having unconstitutional religious parties (like the Happiness Realization Party also) is that you at least expect them to exercise some kind of moral compass when making political decisions. Yet, here they are having rubber stamped previous nationalist reforms when the LDP was in power before, and promising to do so again helping Abe back into power. They are SUPPOSED to be against revision of the constitution - although if the polls are right, and they actually find some backbone, LDP will just get help from Ishihara and JRA instead to amend the constitution. But if track record is an indicator, LDP probably won't even have to do that. Komeito is in it for the power and the influence being in bed with LDP brings the "backers" of the party, even if among them are Shintoist nationalists that contradict the basic values and tenets of the party.

It seems like JRA, DPJ and Komei will be vying around 10% to fill the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place - the DPJ may very well finish third the way things are going. Which means (1) recommencement of nuclear power, (2) an end to administrative reforms and a full continuation of administrative guidance reinstated under Kan and Noda, and (3) back to old school LDP economic management.

Given the track record of LDP and Komei together, I almost hope JRA comes in second, just to shake things up. It looks like all the actual left of center parties (JCP, Ozawa Party and the Socialists) are languishing in the 3% or less category.

It's amazing how quickly people forget. Sure, the DPJ hasn't lived up to its promises -- but anyone who believed they could deliver on such impossible pledges was a fool to begin with, same as Abe's not going to balance the budget, and in four years they people will be grumbling the same thing. What's more, WHY did the DPJ need to make those promises to begin with? because the LDP had put the nation in such a state that change is absolutely necessary... but now the disgruntled are going BACK to the gang that prompted them to vote for change?

How soon we forget.

This survey is far from accurate and I think misleading. There are no details on how they were conducted and is from a small sample group.

The polls show the LDP have the support of about 25% of voters, hardly a huge swing in favour of the party of bribes, corruption and debt.

Once Abe came to power he will discover the Japan in front of him is far different than the one he has ruled 5 years ago! And he might discover how unflavourable is Japan's situation when confronting with China!

“I feel betrayed by the DPJ which promised to change so much, but achieved so little. They came across as immature, disorganised and ineffective,” said Junko Makita..

..so I'm going to vote to go back to when it was so terrible that I voted for a complete change.

so a woman won't vote for the DPJ because they "let her down." But she will vote for the LDP who got Japan into this mess to begin with.

isn't that a reduction to the absurd?

Do people earenstly think they will be safe for the future with a LDP-Komeito coalition that betrayed their safety in the past so often?

said an LDP-New Komeito party coalition could even win the two-thirds majority needed to over-ride the upper house

That could be the scariest outcome of the election. Abe and the LDP unchallenged to pursue his "vision". Very glad I'm watching from the outside on all this.

This place never learns.

I have been reading many interesting writings why Japan cannot change. They seem to agree that a Japan is filled with corruptions.

I wish the media would stop influencing people which way to vote.

Keiko Kowaii: Ooh this poll shows they're popular, I'll vote for them.

Easy victory (for LDP) and difficult handlings ahead.

Abe, 58, who resigned abruptly as premier in 2007 after a troubled year in office

And he'll probably resign or get ousted again, because the situation hasn't changed and the LDP hasn't changed