More opinion polls show LDP favored to win election

why Ichiro Ozawa has been kept out of the picture?

Abe, Hashimoto, Ishihara, not even Stephen King could make up a horror story that scary.

So it will likely be back to the LDP. What are people expecting I wonder? Abe will worsen relations with China. I don't think anyone in government in any party gives a hoot about Tohoku. The money was all about giving contracts to their buddies. Heaven help us if Ishihara and Hashimoto win.

wow, so many opinion polls... does anyone post the charter of the parties the people are going to elect? or should they just choose on the basis of these trends?

Again we are reminded that the proportional representation part of the ballot accounts for 180 of the total 480 seats in the lower house. This system sucks, to say the least. Through this method, losers can become winners. Why can't they go back to the old system in which the person with the most votes wins? In case you forgot, the LDP invented this system so that their top people can't be voted out of office easily ... if at all. Although this strategy didn't work in the last big general election, I still find it a poor way to select someone who is disliked to return to an elected position.

As for the polls mentioned above, let's hope they are interviewing the wrong people. But I doubt it. Opinion everywhere seems to be tilted toward the LDP ... even though many people still do not trust them.

37% for Abe, so the poll means that that percentage of people like him as a choice for PM but neither party is anywhere close to a true majority.

Which means the election, even though everyone seems to be picking the LDP, is still up in the air. And it is very possible that neither party will gain enough votes to form a government on their own and will need some of the smaller opposition parties to make it happen.

Which also means that if it really is a close race, the DJP could still come out on top if it can garner enough allies, the same for the LDP. So in the end Hashimoto and Ishihara may end up playing PM maker and their party could determine who becomes PM as well. Like the LDP had to do a number of years back with Murayama who was a socialist party member who became PM by agreement with the LDP for supporting them,

Does this country have anything resembling a long time, political strategy?

"Japan Restoration Party and the Party of the Sun, led by two of Japan’s most outspoken politicians—have enjoyed intense local media coverage"

Gee, I never noticed that. But it's good they're getting so much coverage, because without Ishihara and Hashimoto Japan is doomed. Maybe they can just show them 24hrs.

"Does this country have anything resembling a long time, political strategy?"

Yes. Politicians want to stay in power for as long as they can.

" Yes. Politicians want to stay in power for as long as they can."

And fail miserably at that. I'm waiting for the day when Japan has a stable government that has the support of a majority and deserves it. Unlikely to happen, though. At least not in my lifetime.

And fail miserably at that. I'm waiting for the day when Japan has a stable government that has the support of a majority and deserves it. Unlikely to happen, though. At least not in my lifetime.

Then why wait for the impossible?

The time is drawing closer to abandon the good ship Japan. It will surely sink if it brings the LDP back to political power.

Ishihara having a say in the government of Japan = a return to the bad old days of totalitarianism.

The Nikkei poll said 11% of voters support Hashimoto's Japan Restoration Party and

4% support Ishihara's Party of the Sun.

The Asahi poll showed combined voter support for the two parties at 7%.

If that's so, then I'm glad they combined their parties!

They've just reduced their total support by one half!

37% of people polled think a guy that has previously failed - giving up because he couldn't hack it - would make a better PM than a guy who, although unspectacular, has done a pretty steady job. That kind of makes sense...in Japan.

37% of people polled think a guy that has previously failed - giving up because he couldn't hack it - would make a better PM than a guy who, although unspectacular, has done a pretty steady job. That kind of makes sense...in Japan.

Too right. There is also likely an element among people believing that the wimpy quitter Abe can do the job better - he is from the right family, his grand-dad was a PM after all... Noda is not from the political aristocracy. This seems to be how things work in this relatively new "democracy": family background seems more important than most other factors.

the wimpy quitter Abe can do the job better - he is from the right family, his grand-dad was a PM after all

Burakumin - you're not wrong. The last time Abe was in the hot seat (and I don't envy the seat Abe sits on) I had a very well-educated lady explain to me in almost flawless English that Abe would become a great Prime Minister because is grandfather was PM and there for it was in Abe's DNA. I explained that my grandfather had been a surgeon, but if she ever broke her leg she'd be better off not calling me.

But this is the land where jobs are genetic. Even when the man can't control his own colon, he should represent his country on the world stage.

It doesn't matter who gets in, nothing will change...the bureaucrats and interest groups will still be pulling the strings. But stay tuned for more comedy! With Abe, Ishihara and Hashimoto going at it, there will be plenty of popcorn moments!

Even when the man can't control his own colon, he should represent his country on the world stage.

Zing! Got him there, sir!

the bureaucrats and interest groups will still be pulling the strings.

All other conversation is media-fueled drama for a mostly apathetic public. However, the looming economic collapse (regardless who holds the PM office) will cause people to start paying more attention. At some point, the bureaucracy will be held accountable. Only then will real reform find traction in Japan.

I think Ozawa and his group are the best option for the country but as Ozawa is marginalized by the status quo in collusion with mass media, Abe is a realistic and viable option inasmuch as he is serious about the reform of the civil servant system as he was in office five years ago. Seeing as the stock price goes up and the yen goes down quickly after he mentioned his economic policy (quantitative easing until an inflation target is achieved), he may be someone to be welcome by the market too. As for the concern for his being a nationalist, I don't think he is a blind nationalist. Remember how in 2007 Abe didn't get through the Diet the special anti-terroism law to continue to send SDF to the Indian Ocean even though he could have if he willed. At that time Ozawa opposed to sending SDF over there. Abe managed to elude to get it passed until the then Defense Minister Koike Yuriko lost her patience and forsook Abe and he himself suddenly resigned after which the anti-terrorism law lost its effect. It was as if he secretly sided with Ozawa. Very impressive.

So long as it don't form a govt with the Restoration Party, all is well enough.

SeiharinokazeNov. 20, 2012 - 01:59AM JST

Abe is a realistic and viable option inasmuch as he is serious about the reform of the civil servant system as he was in office five years ago. Seeing as the stock price goes up and the yen goes down quickly after he mentioned his economic policy (quantitative easing until an inflation target is achieved), he may be someone to be welcome by the market too.

I am glad to read this. To my understanding, Abe is not talking about monetary easing (QE), instead he is urging BOJ to print UNLIMITED amount of YEN. There is a big difference between the two.Where does he want to spend that money? Spending on Private Sector or spending on Public sector? Which story should I believe? Appreciate your feedback.

I am glad to read this. To my understanding, Abe is not talking about monetary easing (QE), instead he is urging BOJ to print UNLIMITED amount of YEN. There is a big difference between the two.Where does he want to spend that money? Spending on Private Sector or spending on Public sector? Which story should I believe? Appreciate your feedback.

What Abe is seeking is for Bank of Japan to purchase JGB (namely Constructions bonds) where it will finance construction works.

globalwathcer,

Abe means "unlimited QE until an inflation target is achieved". When the inflation target is achieved, QE will end. In that sense it is not unlimited. And what he means by the revision of the BOJ Act is that the government shares an inflation target with the central bank.

ahhh just what Japan needs! The post-War party that pushed Japan into its present hole will return to guide Japan to its demise.

Its fair to say that DPJ have been a massive disappointment. But how long would it take (in the face of massive natural disasters and a global financial meltdown) to fix the looney-tunes, ineptitude of Japans past 60 year political system?

Where even to begin? How about:

1). An end to weighted electoral seats in both houses 2). Disallowing hereditary seats (at least at party level) 3). Time limits (and age) on parliamentarians 4). Open tendering on large projects 5). Restricted movement between parliament and the bureaucracy 6). Try a more definitive system like First Past the Post (FPP) 7). Restrict parliament so convicted felons cannot sit in parliament (I wonder how many would be out on that alone) 8). The vote for all Permanent Residents in Japan (and the right to seek election)

Enough is enough. The present system only benefits a select few. A society as unique as Japans (a whole civilisation on a single tiny Island) both deserves and has the wherewithal to create a political system the world could envy, rather than one which produces contempt and dismissal as irrelevant and embarrassing.

The last time Abe was in the hot seat (and I don't envy the seat Abe sits on) I had a very well-educated lady explain to me in almost flawless English that Abe would become a great Prime Minister because is grandfather was PM and there for it was in Abe's DNA. I explained that my grandfather had been a surgeon, but if she ever broke her leg she'd be better off not calling me.

Well said! And they probably use Ishihara and his prodigies as examples too. I agree that this kind of thinking permeates Japan and the odds of Abe getting back the PM's job stem from this belief.

If it's in the DNA then why am I not a pilot? Oh right I'm not Japanese......silly me!

Think I will vote for the Socialist Party. We need to keep the brown nose out of the government. The DPJ and LDP both jump when commanded by their American masters.

If Abe is elected, what is less clear is whether the Japanese public will prove any more willing to follow him. Many Japanese people feel insecurities about China, and Japan’s declining economic and political influence in Asia. Majority of voters in Japan still oppose making waves in diplomatic issues, and would not want further economic damage to Japan’s ties with China, because they are the biggest trade partner. Problem is, did Abe learned that the same hard-line stand of of confrontational stance toward China and South Korea would turn off the general public? Does Japan want to go to war over the Senkaku? Abe might be getting too far out of touch with the public.

Majority of voters in Japan still oppose making waves in diplomatic issues,

sfjp330

Do you have proof to back this up?

J-goverment has to weather the economic crisis at home and the new eleceted leader has difficult challenges ahead. Japanese people sees itself virtually surrounded by geopolitical challenges on all sides, including territorial disputes with China, South Korea and Russia and North Korea J-goverment surely faces tough choices in how it conducts its foreign policy, but so do other states in the Pacific Asia. It is not too late for a proactive Japanese foreign policy in Asia. Tokyo needs to leverage the capital that it has already accrued among countries in the Pacific Asia to regain some of its lost prestige.

One of the problem for J-goverment is that Japan's industrial heavyweights such as Toyota, Nissan, Toshiba and Mitsubishi, and lobbyists representing Japanese industries may have substantial competitive advantage over the opinions of J-goverment's handling of island dispute. It may be political suicide for any PM elected to completely abandon the Japanese companies opinions, especially considering it was most affected by the Senkaku/Daioyu issue The Japan's economic survival is at stake and J-govement is clearly aware of the problem.

Ivan Coughanoffalot:

Even when the man can't control his own colon

True he was suffering from ulcerative colitis but wonder if going after that is the right thing to do when you have 100K other patients suffering from the same illness in Japan.

Think I will vote for the Socialist Party. We need to keep the brown nose out of the government. The DPJ and LDP both jump when commanded by their American masters.

Japan allows absentee balloting? Learn something every day.

Why can't the Japanese Liberal Democrats be more like the British ones?

<libdems.org.uk>

I think it's clear that the LDP will win by a landslide. What is more interesting is whether the DPJ can even hold onto third place, and whether any of the new parties can challenge the Soka Gakkai Party for the third position, although frankly, LDP is looking like it will get such a lead that even the no2 and no3 parties couldn't outnumber them.

The real question I guess is whether the LDP will even need coalition partners outside of Komeito (or even Komeito, for that matter).

It's hard to see the left getting any traction - DPJ will get at best around 15% of seats, Communists about 2.5%, SDP, Greens, and Ozawa's Party around 1%. Other parties are really all recent LDP spinoffs or far right parties. Komeito is the most center of the remaining parties but they are still firmly in bed with the LDP.

It should be a walkover for Abe's stable return. My only hope is that he doesn't give coalition partners, like Ishihara, a platform for trouble making.

Hikozaemon: Agree it may be a landslide, but would still hope for a productive election debate to be held by the respective leaders. Noda should ideally come strong to make sure Abe makes his position clear on TPP and nuclear. Watanabe should challenge Abe on the right strategic direction for Japan Inc. Shame Hashimoto is no longer leading the Restoration Party - Would have preferred for him instead of Ishihara to be part of the debate to make his own policies better known to the voters.