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40% of Taiwanese believe Japan will help them if China invades: poll

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This article is saying now the majority of Taiwanese believe neither Japan (57%) nor the US (65%) would dispatch troops to help defend Taiwan in case of an invasion; whereas before the War in Ukraine, it was the opposite. The article fails to mention what steps Taiwan plans to take as a result of this change in perspective and the US administration’s role in changing the perspective.

Biden, in the video call with Xi confirmed its China policy in regards to Taiwan and opposed any change in the status quo. This is by no means permanent.

The US administration may change in two years and if so, the Taiwanese can then reassess the situation but would be wise to take steps to be more self-reliant in defending its de facto status.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Do we have a link to the survey in question? I always like to see the specific framing they use in these kinds of surveys, because 40% seems like a very high number. Lots of caveats here.

China staging an invasion of Taiwan remains unlikely, quite frankly.

Hypothetically if it did happen, Japan isn't really legally capable to intervene. At least not militarily, they might send aid and the US would likely use their bases in Japan as staging areas. Thinking Japan is more likely to step in than the US just seems crazy though.

The US definitely has more capability to intervene, though whether they would or not remains unclear. I suspect not, it definitely does not seem like the kind of conflict the US is likely to take on unless forced into it.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Around 40 percent of Taiwanese believe Japan would dispatch troops to help defend Taiwan if China invaded the self-ruled island, more than those who think the United States would come to their assistance, according to a survey released this week.

High hopes. As a staging area for US forces:possibly. But countries are taking lessons from the Ukraine response and it looks more doubtful the US would intervene with even a NFZ in such a conflict.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

Taiwan is not Ukraine. Nor is it Afghanistan. Chinese control of Taiwan would allow China to choke off the PG oil supply to Japan. It would also put South Korea in the same situation.

4 ( +10 / -6 )

Ukraine response and it looks more doubtful the US would intervene with even a NFZ in such a conflict.

Of course the US would not intervene in Taiwan (and by proxy neither would Japan). There is a reason why almost no country has formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.

The US (and by proxy Japan) never said they would defend Taiwan militarily. I have no idea why the 30-40% of Taiwanese Chinese would think they would.

4 ( +9 / -5 )

As China watches the Ukraine crisis unfold it will make it easier to predict what difficulties China can expect with its unification of Taiwan strategy scenario.

And 40% of Taiwanese believe in Japan's assistance isn't enough .

Japan can talk tough all it wants but in reality Japan is always too slow and too late to get it done.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Some were afraid that China would launch a synchronised attack when the World is busy following Ukraine. This didn't happen as Beijing kept behaving in a prudent manner.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

The PRC isn't going to do anything anytime soon.

Xi is patient. He will wait.

The issue is what Taiwan is going to do to help itself in the meantime.

The same could be said for the US (and Japan).

3 ( +4 / -1 )

I think what we are learning with Ukraine is that large cities are incredibly difficult to capture and the key to defending them is for the leaders to hold strong. It seems as an invader if you cannot take the city “softly”, the only other real option is to reduce it to rubble.

If the Taiwanese government show the same fortitude that the Ukrainians are showing it will be a near impossible task for China to invade somewhere like Taipei and have something left to govern.

The Chinese will also be closely following how this plays out both economically for Russia and domestically for Putin - I hope they look at it and realize the juice is just not worth the squeeze.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Taiwan must be willing and able to defend itself. It may not be able to stop a determined invasion, but it can live in the history books as a glorious example of what it means to fight for freedom.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

a random sample of 1,077 adults from around the island by phone, had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.99 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence interval.

sounds like gobbledygook to me. in any case, my guess is that "40 percent of Taiwanese" have been sold a load of bunk, and I would recommend they don't hold their breath.

2 ( +11 / -9 )

The western response to Ukraine has probably closed the door on Taiwan independence. The strong condemnation and sanctions on Russia for recognising the independence of the breakaway Donbass regions makes it inconceivable that these same western nations will suddenly turn around and recognise Taiwan's independence in violation of the same international law that they are now waving at Russia.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

@ Samit

Sorry- but if you think that the JSDF or Japanese military will prohibit the USA military from doing what it wants then you might consider rethinking that scenario.

No insult intended.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

China is certainly watching Russia’s debacle in Ukraine and has learned an important fact: that a determined resistance, even if numerically inferior, can not only inflict major damage on an invader, but can even win. And given how dependent China is on imported oil and exported goods, Zhongnanhai is certainly noting the hermetic sanctions inflicted on Russia unanimously by the world with deep concern.

Every Taiwanese male must serve a stint in its armed forces of at least four months, a period Taiwan is considering extending, so all are at least minimally trained. While I agree it is doubtful that the US would become directly involved in the fighting, it has already increased the amount and sophistication of weapons it allows Taiwan to buy.

Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine will make China less, not more, likely to invade Taiwan.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

China really wants undestroyed Taiwan and unhurt Taiwanese. China waits until 70% Taiwanese people favor China.

It is about 4% now and getting lower so 70% will never ever happen. Not while the CCP runs China.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I would say arming yourselves with javelin missiles would be helpful.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

40% of Taiwanese believe Japan will help them if China invades: poll

LMAO!!!

0 ( +9 / -9 )

Asked by Jin Matsubara, a Constitutional Democratic lawmaker, if the U.S. would come to Japan's aid should Japan be invaded, Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi replied in a knee-jerk fashion that it would by all means because it is obligated to do so under the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. (See: "Should Japan's territory be attacked, US will come and defend Japan by all means", Reuters: 2022/03/23)

But would it because of and under a treaty obligation that the U.S. will come and defend Japan? Isn't it because the U.S. considers Japan as an integral part of its sphere of influence and also because it wouldn't want to lose its hegemony over the region, simply seeing things go by as fence sitters?

But when it comes to the Senkaku issue, the story may be different. For the U.S.'s fundamental position has been it wouldn't be involved with territorial matters and disputes of other countries. So, can Hayashi say with confidence that the U.S. would come to Japan's aid in such a case no matter what?

0 ( +2 / -2 )

It is like Taiwan is unaware of Article 9.

China has a "no first use" policy on nukes unlike Russia, so the US can intervene without any conflict turning nuclear. Unlike the Ukraine conflict with mad Vlad threatening nukes and chemical weapons use.

Japan would send humanitarian aid, take in refugees and sanction China but I do not think it would send troops unless it changes or deletes article 9.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

The Taiwanese need to look at Ukraine and how they've been left to fight this out on their own. The Americans won't hesitate to leave the Taiwanese in the lurch. They're already moving parts of the semiconductor industry out of Taiwan and to the US.

0 ( +4 / -4 )

If China-favorable politicians were elected from that 4%, more Taiwanese people might be changing. Communist China has been supporting the China-favorable Taiwanese people secretly, 4% now, but years later 10%, 20%, 30% go up to 60% 70% someday.

Pie in the sky fantasy. The free people are NEVER going to want the single party CCP governing them and taking away their freedoms. More likely for the sun to explode before that fantasy comes to pass.

China is not far away, they see what happens and how it happens and they much prefer the freedoms they have now, and the ability to change governments that under preform when required, (when the people deem it necessary). When China upgrades to such a system then maybe, but not before.

But nothing stopping you from continuing to dream about it.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Taiwan is more valuable without destroying.it in a war. Putin didn't understand that with Ukraine.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Then 40% of Taiwan's population need to read Japan's constitution...

Japan couldn't help even if it wanted to... Which it wouldn't.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Taiwan still has time to step back from the abyss and not provoke China too much.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

If China invaded Taiwan, Japan would only help thousands of refugees to Japan's islands near Taiwan, but will not defend the land of Taiwan, because China's invasion would be so quick to take over Taiwan. The US and Japan could not do much about it but can help refugees to Japan's islands. However China will not invade soon. China really wants undestroyed Taiwan and unhurt Taiwanese. China waits until 70% Taiwanese people favor China.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Not in our peaceful constitution buddy.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

The western response to Ukraine has probably closed the door on Taiwan independence.

Taiwan is already a functioning independent sovereign nation.

The strong condemnation and sanctions on Russia for recognising the independence of the breakaway Donbass regions makes it inconceivable that these same western nations will suddenly turn around and recognise Taiwan's independence in violation of the same international law that they are now waving at Russia.

No, the situations are not similar in any way. Taiwan is already independent. Has never been under CCP rule. it became independent when the civil war ended and they were still ruled by the Nationalist government. Everyone is aware of this history. Jinping simply does not want to recognize what is.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

It is about 4% now and getting lower so 70% will never ever happen. Not while the CCP runs China.

If China-favorable politicians were elected from that 4%, more Taiwanese people might be changing. Communist China has been supporting the China-favorable Taiwanese people secretly, 4% now, but years later 10%, 20%, 30% go up to 60% 70% someday.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Of course Japanese will massively help the Taiwanese , there’s just simply no other option, otherwise they are the next, and that with a then even bigger and having even more resources and equipped with latest technology China.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Neither Japan or the U.S. will intervene, they don't want a hot war with China. Xi is watching very closely how the west is reacting to Russia's invasion, and right now he sees only arms shipments and economic sanctions, both of which I think China could withstand better than Russia. The biggest difference will be the use of air and naval forces instead of ground troops. For the greater good, someone should muzzle Abe. Keep working diplomacy, and never stop talking.

-2 ( +6 / -8 )

America would protect Taiwan and Japan will assist the US Army with gas and food and supplies for the guys protecting and defending democracy. Thanks Japan!

-2 ( +8 / -10 )

Very sorry , taiwan, u are too naive. We in Japan have many problems. We have to help our problems first.

-2 ( +7 / -9 )

Hopefully China will choose to compete economically and not jeopardize its current economic success which Russia never had.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Soon China will be the great world economic power. The US will take a backseat. Whoever wants to be in business must be on good terms with China.

Japan must act with intelligence and not be looking for wars just to please the barking of the US..

America would protect Taiwan and Japan will assist the US Army with gas and food and supplies for the guys protecting and defending democracy. Thanks Japan!

the same way US troops are risking their lives on Ukrainian soil!!..

Waahahahahaa!!!--

Keep dreaming, LOOOOOL, !!!

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Delusional Taiwan. Japan is not going to do anything except use 'strong' language of disapproval. Maybe some sanctions. Nothing major.

-3 ( +11 / -14 )

Remember the good times when Taiwan's president was Ma? Suddenly cross strait relations were on a high, lots of business, trade, exchanges, direct flights. America (and thus Japan) must have been saddened although on the surface they were happy. Their true colors were soon exposed. America just cannot bear to see these people get on in a peaceful environment. America only knows war and can only tolerate countries it can subjugate and have under their control. Japan also needs to remember the 80s when their economy got uppity and the backlash that followed in America. I still remember the name Vincent Chin.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

OssanAmerican

Taiwan is not Ukraine. Nor is it Afghanistan. Chinese control of Taiwan would allow China to choke off the PG oil supply to Japan. It would also put South Korea in the same situation.

Why in the world would China block oil supply to Japan and Korea? Why should Japan or Korea even ponder something so ridiculous unless either country was thinking about starting a war with China?

Japan's problem with China is that they're upset that China is now the most dominant country in Asia. Of course you, as a Japanese, are concerned about something so ridiculous because you want a war with China.

-6 ( +9 / -15 )

Japanese government must re-iterate its official policy of non-intervention to motivate Taiwanese to be self-reliant on its defense. Not only Japan won't intervene, but it will also prohibit the US from launching a military intervention from Okinawa, due to the threat of China declaring Japan an enemy combatant and bombard Tokyo with thousands of ballistic missiles.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3130423/japan-troops-wont-get-involved-if-china-invades-taiwan-pm

Japan troops won’t get involved if China invades Taiwan, PM Yoshihide Suga says

-10 ( +5 / -15 )

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