Shrinking LDP lead points to post-election confusion

threatening more policy confusion for the world’s third-biggest economy

Great, just what Japan needs. This is really a worst-case scenario. Japan ahs been rudderless since Koizumi left office, and now it looks like it will continue. Truly sad and scary.

Interesting new trend begins now...unlike new PM every year now Japan will have general election every year :)

Abe is on the wane. If he ever has the guts to debate Noda one-to-one he will lose even more votes. I don't have a very high opinion of Noda either, but he is doing a good job at pointing out the problems with Abe's unhinged rantings.

Hopefully, this means the J-public are waking up and realizing that the politics of old will not fix the economy because it is the politics of old that created this mess in the first place. Mind you, I am not saying that Noda has the skills to rectify the economy, but the alternative is a reckless bunch of right-wing jijis determined to ruin Japan.

herefornow

Great, just what Japan needs. This is really a worst-case scenario. Japan ahs been rudderless since Koizumi left office, and now it looks like it will continue. Truly sad and scary.

Just the way the bureaucrats likes it, I would imagine.

Hope Japanese are waking up to see the consequences if LDP comes back in power. These are the reasons I am not for LDP.

1) LDP is solid pro-nuke, not phasing out.

2) LDP is taking a power of Central Bank (BOJ).

3) LDP is denoucing the Article 9th of Constitution.

4) LDP is a warmonger.

5) LDP is a regressive party.

@globalwatcher

Well said. Better a "rudderless" nation than one full-steam ahead for Fascism.

1) LDP is solid pro-nuke, not phasing out.

I'll call that pragmatism. Or do you want to do something that will 100% definitely hurt the already fragile Japanese economy? Because anti-nuke in the next 10-20 year timeframe will be just that.

2) LDP is taking a power of Central Bank (BOJ).

I agree that's the worst part of his platform.

3) LDP is denoucing the Article 9th of Constitution.

The only thing wrong about it was that this wasn't done 20 years ago. But then, the Japanese zeitgeist 20 years ago won't have allowed it even more than it does today.

4) LDP is a warmonger.

Do you believe in territorial integrity? Besides, Hitler, Togo, Mussolini, Napoleon, Stalin and Bush ( :-) ) working together can't make Japan as it is truly warmongering in the next 10 years.

5) LDP is a regressive party.

That's too vague for me to come up with a counter. But if you want to express concerns about say his "patriotic education" programs, I'll agree.

Kazuaki ShimazakiDec. 04, 2012 - 11:49AM JST

1) LDP is solid pro-nuke, not phasing out.

I'll call that pragmatism. Or do you want to do something that will 100% definitely hurt the already fragile Japanese economy? Because anti-nuke in the next 10-20 year timeframe will be just that.

Too much bureaucratic power behind nuke projects that support LDP, and they will not be pragmatic. LDP will give a "Green" light to proceed nuke plants for the next decades. I recall reading articles that within the next 4 years Japan may or would experience another big earthquake like Tohoku and the chance of having it is more than 75%. Are you ready to go through the nuke disaster again?

2) LDP is taking a power of Central Bank (BOJ).

I agree that's the worst part of his platform.

Very, very reckless and he will tank whole Japan beyond repair. There is an unspoken global financial rule among developed countries we all adhere with mutural respect. It is very regrettable to tell you that Japan will end up losing a good 50 years of credibility at end if Abe decides to do this. The consequence is more than you can imagine.

3) LDP is denoucing the Article 9th of Constitution.

The only thing wrong about it was that this wasn't done 20 years ago. But then, the Japanese zeitgeist 20 years ago won't have allowed it even more than it does today.

The world leaders understand the Article 9th. That's why the world is not asking you too much, but without the 9th, well, Japan has no excuses any more.

4) LDP is a warmonger.

Do you believe in territorial integrity? Besides, Hitler, Togo, Mussolini, Napoleon, Stalin and Bush ( :-) ) working together can't make Japan as it is truly warmongering in the next 10 years.

Hitler once said, "Strength lies not in defense but in attack." Is it?

The world will be a better place to live when we elect a strong leader who is willing to negotiate. As JFK once stated," Let us never negotiate out of fear. But let us never fear to negotiate. We dare not tempt them with weakness. For only when our arms are sufficient beyond doubt can we be certain beyond doubt they (agression) will never be employed." I am seriously doubt he has this leadership quality for Japanese.

Here's hoping the LDP will shrink just a little bit more and totally disappear.

And that the next guy will be the guy at the tiller, not just another US puppet.

Too much to hope for, you say?

You're probably right.

Directly connecting amendment in article 9 as being war mongers is a bit rash.

Under present article 9 JSDF is not considered as a military organization under the Geneva Convention therefore if Japan went to war Japanese JSDF troops will not be shielded and if caught the Japanese POW can be put on trial as civilians under the court of law and not a military tribunal. This has several implications mostly against Japanese troops since the best they can plead under those conditions is man slaughter or self defence if he is charged with murder just by pulling the trigger in battle.

I can't really see big business supporting the LDP this time around. There must be some pretty upset companies due to the troubled trade with China. Noda will at least be willing to negotiate and try and restore relations (and as a result, trade). It does not sound like Abe will. He will make things worse. I really, really hope voters realize the folly of going back to the LDP which (as some have said above) have got Japan into this terrible situation. Noda is not great, I agree, but Abe? Come on.

I don't have a very high opinion of Noda either, but he is doing a good job at pointing out the problems with Abe's unhinged rantings.

I don't normally approve of negative campaigning, but in the case of Shinzo Abe it's impossible to be too negative. Noda would be fully justified in bringing up his 3rd generation hereditary politician background, the attempts to censor NHK, the rigged town hall meetings when Abe was LDP Secretary General, the election campaigns he botched, his disastrous first term as PM and the cabinet ministers he appointed who had to resign, all of it. Japan needs to be reminded that Shinzo Abe is basically a walking disaster who would be nothing without his father and grandfather's money, connections and re-hashed ideas.

@globalwatcher

Too much bureaucratic power behind nuke projects that support LDP, and they will not be pragmatic. LDP will give a "Green" light to proceed nuke plants for the next decades.

Not necessarily a bad thing, even if true.

I recall reading articles that within the next 4 years Japan may or would experience another big earthquake like Tohoku and the chance of having it is more than 75%. Are you ready to go through the nuke disaster again?

I've also heard earthquake of Tohoku's size is rather rare. Besides, the main culprit of the whole Fukushima mess would be the tsunami. It seems more reasonable to build higher seawalls than to stop building nuclear plants.

If anything, the paranoia of the world over radiation may have contributed to Fukushima. Seawalls costs money. So does extraneous anti-radiation protection to provide an absurd margin of safety (in one dimension). There's clearly only a finite amount of cash. If they had spent less money putting up anti-radiation protection to appease the anti-nuclearists and more money building a higher seawall, or maybe more backup power sources, Fukushima might be running today.

The world leaders understand the Article 9th. That's why the world is not asking you too much, but without the 9th, well, Japan has no excuses any more.

And that's not necessarily a bad thing. Every time Japan hides under Article 9, its reputation actually gets damaged. If you are going to be forced to deploy peacekeepers you might as well go for the whole shebang rather than asking the Rwandans to protect you...

More importantly, in the long run, Japan needs a more robust defence and Art 9 is in the way. What peaceniks do not understand is that if they want a chance to not be forced to participate in American (or in the far off future, Chinese) adventures, Japan needs an independent defense. Japan can only potentially reach a position where it can live out Paragraph 1 of Article 9 by abandoning the text of Article 9. Otherwise, it'll be forced to send troops, who would barely be allowed to defend themselves, or if they somehow got out of sending troops, large cash infusions that would nevertheless be met with scorn. Didn't Gulf War I teach Japan anything?

I am seriously doubt he has this leadership quality for Japanese.

I don't think I have too many illusions about Abe. But as your quote points out, to have negotiations you must have defense. This is something that's neglected by DPJ and the parties that are even more pacifist. LDP is the biggest party that at least thinks about defense ... so.

@marcelito Here's my question. Are structural reforms really things that can be controlled by governments? Or must corporations actually realize they need to restructure and be the main driver?

Though I agree about the bonds really. I've said in multiple threads now that I don't really like LDP's economic ideas either. But if the DPJ actually had great ideas, it would have used them before it was kicked out of power.

Shrinking LDP lead points to post-election confusion

As if there was ever going to be anything but confusion after the election anyway.

The more confusion the merrier I suppose, in this case.

Kazuaki ShimazakiDec. 04, 2012 - 09:52PM JST

I recall reading articles that within the next 4 years Japan may or would experience another big earthquake like Tohoku and the chance of having it is more than 75%. Are you ready to go through the nuke disaster again?

I've also heard earthquake of Tohoku's size is rather rare

Your argument here makes me wonder why the Japanese risk management often fails.

For public safety, the rule #1 for a good leader is to consider the worst scenario and never assume anything when the stake is too high. In this case, having another earthquake like Tohoku may likely to happen. This is a huge mistake.

Another problem with article 9 is that since JSDF is not considered a military, the men can desert without severe consequences since there is no court martial. So if a war breaks out even if the JSDF personnel runs there is way to stop them.

Really is this the way you want for national security?

"independents... in 2005 they all went to the LDP and in 2009 they all went to the DPJ. This time they will be all over the place."

Ha ha! Independents - the wishy-washy voters who can't make up their minds.