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U.S. excludes oil for Japan from Russia's Sakhalin-2 from price cap

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I would like to add scenario 3: China announces that they will provide insurance for these vessels, thereby endangering London's monopoly positions.

China already offers hull insurance. They have about 12 1/2% of the global market for hull insurance and some of the highest premiums in the market. The second they start insuring Russian oil shipments they will be sanctioned and loose all of their western customers and western shippers that use Chinese hulls will find other companies to carry their cargos.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

How about the scenario that both the buyer and seller declare that oil is sold below the cap and the buyer refunds the remaining amount to the seller separately.

Oil purchases involve financial institutions that are almost 100% tied to the west. There woud be no way to hide a subsequent payment. Most often the buyer has to borrow money to finance the purchase of oil making it impossible to breach the price cap. Even if it is just a transfer of existing Dollar or Euro denominated funds from the buyers account, the amounts involved are obvious. A subsequent payment with no product procured would immediately draw attention and reveal the scheme (scam) you describe.

Second scenario - An oil tanker which can carry a certain amount of oil actually is filled only to half or three quarters capacity even though it's declared to be filled to full capacity.

Do you know what the load line and draft marks on a ship are? It is a simple matter to calculate the cargo weight from how far into the water the hull sits. In any event, would not the scam be to say you are loading X barrels of oil but instead load more than X? Either way, those loading facilities meter the product into the ship. They will know how much they loaded and have records of this.

And if Russia only decides to sell the 1 million bpd, it will again mean less oil in the market and higher prices. If Russia is able to earn the same revenues by selling lesser oil due to higher oil prices it's not Russia's loss.

If Russia only exports 1 million BPD, that is roughly a 71.4% reduction in output. Oil prices woould have to more than triple to compensate. Not a reasonable outcome to expect. Russia looses money on this situation. The more probable situation is Russia gradually buying up older tankers and putting them under the Russian flag while selling what it cannot ship on a Russian hull at the cap price. Currently however tankers are in short supply so good luck finding used ones that are still serviceable. There is some evidence that old junkers are trading hands at well above market prices so it seems the Russians may be trying to buy whatever tankers they can find.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

So they know Russia won't be selling at the price cap so they have to exclude Japan

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The sanctions on Russia is hypocrital even by the western standards. They are all doing business with Russia through improvised loopholes. You know it, I know it, Ukrainians know it.

At least Japan is honest that this is a huge farce and act like "I did my part, now don't make me freeze"

3 ( +3 / -0 )

@Desert Tortoise

How about the scenario that both the buyer and seller declare that oil is sold below the cap and the buyer refunds the remaining amount to the seller separately.

Second scenario - An oil tanker which can carry a certain amount of oil actually is filled only to half or three quarters capacity even though it's declared to be filled to full capacity.

Even Iranian oil which is sanctioned is finding its way to the market through ports in countries like Malaysia, and Russian oil is not even sanctioned.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/amp/2022/10/10/the-g7-wants-to-cap-the-price-of-russian-oil-it-wont-be-easy

there are nowhere near enough Russian owned and Russian insured ships to move Russia's current output of 3.5 billion barrels per day (BPD). At best they have enough ships to move 1 million BPD

And if Russia only decides to sell the 1 million bpd, it will again mean less oil in the market and higher prices. If Russia is able to earn the same revenues by selling lesser oil due to higher oil prices it's not Russia's loss.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

Is the USA pretending to be in control again ?

The price cap is an initiative of the EU, not the US, though the US supports it. The cap price will be set by EU regulators, not the US.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Russia will provide own oil to countries without "price cap" and sure will sell it easy as there is high demand around the world.China,India,non EU countries-you name it.

What you are missing, and why the price cap will work, is that there are nowhere near enough Russian owned and Russian insured ships to move Russia's current output of 3.5 billion barrels per day (BPD). At best they have enough ships to move 1 million BPD. Foreign owned and foreign insured ships are not going to move oil priced above the cap because they will not be able to obtain insurance for their ships or for the load. Dealers won't be able to finance the deals, because the necessary insurance and finance companies are almost all based in the EU. It doesn't matter how many potential buyers are out there if you don't have ships to move the product, and Russia doesn't have them.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

Is the USA pretending to be in control again ?

Rather pathetic isn't it !

3 ( +4 / -1 )

better be honest and talk about facts.

so called price cap will never work.its market economy,where is offer-there is demand.without any frced so called "price caps".

according to russian sources and official informations,Russia will stop to provide oil for countries who will impose so called "price cap".

this will make situation on market different than its now.

Russia will provide own oil to countries without "price cap" and sure will sell it easy as there is high demand around the world.China,India,non EU countries-you name it.

countries who will impose "price caps" will be forced to look for sources from another places than Russia or will be forced to buy russian oil through third party/some agents or reselllers/ to "save their faces" and possible ego.countries who have used russian oil until now after they will be forced buy say US oil will need change all of petro factories and technology as US oil and russian oil are completelty different commodities.dont need to mention cost for change of technology and needed time for it.did you have heard abt global warming and carbon print?as long as EU have no pipe connected with USA al oil need to be imported by tankers...think abt impact for nature.

Japan heavily depends both on cheap russian gas/problem solved as japanese companies get own stake in Sakhalin 2 project and we can enjoy cheap russian gas this winter/and also for oil as Japan is natural resource poor highly industrialized country and there is huge demand for both products here.

question-what uncle Sam meant about "oil cap" when spoke about antirussian sanctions?I mean -what exactly?or it was topic just for EU countries to get their economies more ruined?

3 ( +3 / -0 )

@Antiquesaving Ok now tell us all which ones of these are ready now, can replace all the gasoline, kerosene, gas and diesel needed today and this winter?

So let's look at reality not fantasy, none of it is ready and will not help anytime soon.

Completely missing the point. If there was more longer term thinking, instead of the CONTINUED thinking/policies that ignore the potential of renewables - reducing energy dependence, and facing up to the reality of the climate crisis will never improve.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

It is a reprehensible decision on the part of the US. Weak and cowardly........

The price cap is a European idea that is being developed by the EU, not the US, and would be enforced by the EU. I am not even sure the US has any authority to waive the price cap for Russian oil destined for Japan. The maritime insurance companies that would effectively enforce the price cap. They would not be permitted to insure a ship carrying oil sold at more than the price cap nor would they be able to insure the oil itself against loss. Without access to insurance ships do not move. Those insurance companies are almost all based in Europe where EU laws would apply. Same thing on the finance end.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

If Russia isn't feeling like producing enough supply of gas at set price caps, then they will reduce supply. Why would they willingly make less profit?

Russia won't be able to ship the volume of oil it currently ships unless it sells at or under the price cap for the simple reason that Russia does not have enough ships to move the product under their flag with their insurance at a higher price. Ship owners and oil brokers will be unable to arrange the financing and insurance necessary to ship Russian oil on ships of non-Russian ownership simply because the great majority of maritime insurance in the world is written by companies based in Europe and most of the ships used for the oil trade are owned by western firms who will not move a ship without insurance. Russia could possibly ship a 1/3 of its current volume on hulls it owns. Gas is another story. Russia is not a major owner of LNG ships.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

10% from Russia, the rest from Saudi etc. if the push with war goes ahead with Iran, we will need that 10%.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Japan is not energy resource poor, in fact quite the opposite. However, Japan has made itself dependant on fossil fuels due to the fossil fools within the LDP.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Economically, the price cap is silly. If Russia isn't feeling like producing enough supply of gas at set price caps, then they will reduce supply. Why would they willingly make less profit?

6 ( +6 / -0 )

DT,Japan is torn ,between two lovers,feeling like a fool

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It is a reprehensible decision on the part of the US. Weak and cowardly. Shame!

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

This is a sign that many Japanese elites will be mysteriously purged by Americans in the coming years.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

As long as the US is pumping billion in Ukraine,these corrupt official in Ukraine,will like to prolong this war

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Talk about double standard, ie, credibility. Whether the cap can be implemented or not is a different issue.

Regardless of whether a country is rich/poor, need the energy/not need the energy is not the reason for imposing the cap. Its, allies or competitors.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

It has more than enough tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar energy to be completely energy independent.

How do you run cars, trucks, buses with those?

6 ( +7 / -1 )

@Antiquesaving IF not for climate control laws and if everything being thrown out of the agreements man will do what they always have done!!! USE WOOD WOOD WOOD, COAL COAL COAL,

Ok now tell us all which ones of these are ready now, can replace all the gasoline, kerosene, gas and diesel needed today and this winter?

ifd66

Today 04:51 pm JST

important energy supply source for the resource-poor country

Japan is not resource poor.

It has more than enough tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar energy to be completely energy independent

Ok now tell us all which ones of these are ready now, can replace all the gasoline, kerosene, gas and diesel needed today and this winter?

So let's look at reality not fantasy, none of it is ready and will not help anytime soon.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

In other news this week, Russian oil is still reaching the UK.

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/11/21/693142/UK-bypasses-own-sanctions-on-Russian-oil--Sunday-Times

4 ( +4 / -0 )

I just have two comments.

Firstly, the "price cap" isn't happening. The Russians have said repeatedly they won't sell any oil to any countries which try to impose a price cap. So unless Russia is militarily conquered, which it most definitely won't be, the "price cap" we have been hearing about for over 6 months is pure fiction.

Secondly, I've been very critical of the Ja@anese regime or specifically, its subservience to the (failing) occupation country. But in the case of the Russian sanctions, the Japanese regime has talked the talk but absolutely hasn't walked the walk, unlike Europe to its ruin. I presume the occupation regime is furious with the Japanese regime but what can they do? Short of unleashing WMDs (again), absolutely nothing.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

The price cap application will start when a Russian entity sells crude oil for maritime transport through its first sale to a buyer on land. This means that once the Russian oil has cleared customs in a jurisdiction other than Russia, the price cap does not apply to any further onshore sale.

Translation: China and India will continue re-exporting oil to the G7 at record levels.

The politicians are lying and they think you're too stupid to notice.

12 ( +12 / -0 )

It has more than enough tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar energy to be completely energy independent.

Technology is still a long way off being able to ditch hydrocarbons instead of renewables unfortunately. In the meantime take advantage of any discounts available.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

BigPToday  05:24 pm JST

Papa Joe helping out his good friend Kishida. Thank America!

Anyway, I love sarcasm

4 ( +5 / -1 )

The caps are a paper Tiger with no meaning and power, fact is that Germany has already caved by making a deal for diesel from Russia.

5 ( +10 / -5 )

ifd66

Today 04:51 pm JST

important energy supply source for the resource-poor country

> Japan is not resource poor.

> It has more than enough tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar energy to be completely energy independent

Ok now tell us all which ones of these are ready now, can replace all the gasoline, kerosene, gas and diesel needed today and this winter?

So let's look at reality not fantasy, none of it is ready and will not help anytime soon.

6 ( +13 / -7 )

BigPToday  05:24 pm JST

Papa Joe helping out his good friend Kishida. Thank America!

It’s all a political soap opera and badly written at that.

The Big Boss never, ever makes concessions to benefit vassal allies.

You can be sure that Washington DC will benefit the most with this decision.

12 ( +15 / -3 )

The price cap along with other efforts to squeeze Moscow's revenue have been, and will be, in vain. The western sanctioning of Russian oil and gas has resulted in a massive increase in imports by China sold to them by Russia at a discount. India also continues to buy Russian oil. Sanctions have not seriously limited Russia's ability to sell oil in large quantities and fund it's war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Europe and UK will likely slide into recession in 2023 as a result of higher inflation and interest rates.

16 ( +20 / -4 )

Papa Joe helping out his good friend Kishida. Thank America!

It’s all a political soap opera and badly written at that.

10 ( +13 / -3 )

This price cap is meaningless. It only expedites the pricing of oil in currencies other than the dollar.

6 ( +10 / -4 )

important energy supply source for the resource-poor country

Japan is not resource poor.

It has more than enough tidal, wave, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar energy to be completely energy independent.

3 ( +18 / -15 )

Good thing.

According to the recent New York Times article, Japan's trade with Russia is up by 13% since the war started.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/30/business/economy/russia-trade-ukraine-war.html

9 ( +12 / -3 )

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