Japanese media surveys show Abe heading for big win in Oct 22 election

I am not going to believe this until I see it.

Agreeing on what to amend would still be difficult, and revising the charter's pacifist Article 9 remains contentious. The LDP's dovish coalition partner, the Komeito, is cautious.

Cautious doves? Interesting thought. I'm sure a handful of breadcrumbs and a stroke on the head will sort that lot out.

A military coo?

I guess it fits to Halloween, the braindead are coming... and voting the the same old zombies

Joy! (Sarcasm intended)

And well deserved.  his first term of office has been an unbridled success.  Economy booming.  foreign policy rosy.  Fukushima aftermath dealt with.  Domestic issue sorted.

Not even Doraemon could beat Honest Abe in an election.

The sheeple have spoken! However, I'm pretty sure that the anti-Abenomics policies of Koike's party will turn a few seats around.

Koike should dress up like Princess Leia and call her party "New hope". Why not! If Abe can dress as Super Mario for the closing ceremony of the Brazil Olympics she can do it too!

What is it about the Japanese voting public that makes them want to keep re electing the same lying, arrogant, LDP parasytes who only keep screwing them over and over while enriching themselves and their cronies.

The most obvious explanation is the state of the opposition. Another explanation which I'm becoming more and more interested in is that Japanese people don't particularly care who is in charge and don't believe things can or even should change. Turnout rates seem to back this idea up.

Would anyone like to predict what the turnout rate would in a referendum regarding Article 9?

Is even becoming an opposition member/ supporter enough to be shunned as somehow not Japanese? I dispare when hearing the childlike attitude/knowledge of politics the adults around me expound.

This is really, really depressing. Let's just hope the polls are as wrong as they have been for some other notable recent elections.

I've spoken to many Japanese people and they all hate Abe so I wonder, who the heck is voting for him? This election sounds fishy as hell.

Fail Japanese politics

@papigiulio : Farmer's vote (JA) worth 3 times more than any other regular voter, big business (so they get their government contracts), construction companies (keep em building!)...

I'll be voting for the LDP because the opposition is too incompetent. Even this "Party of Hope" has the same members from the DP and old DPJ for gods sake!

I was hoping that the PoH might be a decent opposition, but they fall very, very short, and therefore there would be a major risk of chaos and gross incompetence, like we are seeing in broken democracies like the UK and US. Abe is still 100x more palatable than Trump so it's all good

This is really, really depressing. Let's just hope the polls are as wrong as they have been for some other notable recent elections.

I'm just thinking the average of the polls were wrong for Brexit and Trump's victory but not by a large margin - just a few of percentage points. The polls for the most recent French and UK elections weren't far off the money.

I can't imagine the polls could get it this wrong. Maybe the undecideds could be a cause for optimism.

This looks miserable to some but about half of the public couldn't give a crap anyway.

dcog9065Today  05:12 pm JST

I'll be voting for the LDP because the opposition is too incompetent. 

Whereas the LDP are competent? Wow, who knew?

For some reason I don't trust the polls. Sadly, many Japanese people who are not happy with Abe's failed economic policies, will skip the elections. But democracy cannot be sustainable in a passive society.

But what have the other parties said to convince the people to vote for them? They've offered no new real ideas, agree on many issues and more importantly they're just the same politicians as before but with new party pins on their jackets. In Japan, no politician tries to win, just not to lose.

Honestly, the only difference between the other parties and Abe's party is one dislikes Abe a little more.

Anyway, don't feel bad, Japan. We're in one of the greatest ages of incompetent or dictatorial leaders: Macron, May, Trump, Turnbull, Putin, Xi, Merkel, Assad, Netanyahu, Maduro, Kim Jong-un, Duterte and so on and so on.

My vote goes to LDP !

He will be pm for a couple more times. He needs to distance from Trump so that Trump, will not order Ae to nuke attack N. Korea.

Well nobody wants anything to change on these islands. Can live with the issues that came up in the years gone by.

Be it nucs or war brothels just keep it out of the local textbooks.

And the countries next door are aliens anyway.

despite calls for popular policies such as ... a sales tax hike freeze.

So it sounds like a sales tax hike is not so bad that the voters will opt for any alternative.

That is kind of interesting.

Not that the hike revenues will be used for fiscal rectitude. Abe is even talking now about making private high school education free, too. Amazing! Middle class capture I know of, but private high education being free too would be upper class capture! And of course if it is free then everyone will want this free private education... paid for by mortgaging the children themselves.

What a terrible state of affairs it would be...

... but don't worry, Abe is lying and will not implement these plans. Just like the 'promised structural reforms'...

Abe is like that 'simply irresistible' song. 'There's no telling where the money went', but the voters will not resist...

Imo J ppl tend to fear 'the unknown' i.e many rather stick with someone they know even if it means stagnation and dissatisfaction than 'try' an unknown quantity.

Then you've ppl who are all about low unemployment and 'jobs' even if it means low wages, over staffing some sectors & under staffing others; they probably genuinely think Abe's their man and that no one will ever come close (which is, sadly, probably true).

The Japanese people earned their "democracy" by losing the war, resulting in their liberation from the war-mongering fascist regime run by militarists and reactionary politicians. Seventy years later the fascist spook seems to be rising again from the swamp of right-wing politics. If the people cannot be bothered to organize to prevent the resistible rise of Abe Shinzo and his corrupt cronies now, how on earth will they be able to stop a more determined ruthless right-wing force with designs on rolling back what is left of their civil and human rights, should that day ever come in the future.

projections by the Nikkei business daily, Yomiuri newspaper and Kyodo news agency showed Abe's conservative LDP-led coalition on track to win

Of course with no help from these and almost every other prominent media outlets' daily panic stories on the so-called threats from North Korea. Good job Nikkei, Yomiuri, Kyodo, and especially Dentsu for pulling for your uberlords. The main reason this country continues to vote for the LDP is out of habit, hopelessness, or fear.

Don't jump to the gun yet!! In 2009 election with the democrats winning, it was still the "undecided" voters on around 40-45% that cast their ballot for the Democratic party of Japan.

Is 4 new years with Abe, what you really want Japan? 4 new years with gaffes and scandals about how they abuse your tax money! 4 new years with tighter security regulations just because of an external threath (starting to look like pre-WW2)! And last but not least 4 new years with one of Japan's most selfish and arrogant prime minister who wants to engage in a war against North Korea!

I long had hope for Japan to maintain their beloved synonym for peace and co-existance. But I am starting to believe that even this will perish with Abe in for it, for another 4 years:(

This election SHOULD be about the current regimes failing as opposed to the opinion of the opposition whom have yet to govern for any extended period of time in the past 70!! Years!! You can't criticize the opponent' lack of experience governing when you've rigged the system against the opponents.

Japanese media surveys show Abe heading for big win

Of course they do. We are all very aware how much the J-media is nothing more than a mouthpiece for Abe.

And as someone else wrote here - I'm baffled as to how he could possibly be getting any meaningful support, given that not a single person I've spoken with about the upcoming election, can stomach a single thing Abe says!

"...Media forecasts showed his ruling bloc heading for a surprisingly big win, possibly enough to re-energise his push to revise Japan's post-World War Two pacifist constitution."

Just to see it'll be true: The bright future of "Japanese Dream" will turn off to "Still going on nightmare".

Who else can replace Abe?

I chose lucky number 13. Or number 4 looks good. Hey! People are waiting to see all the amplified candidates and their gloved minions at their local eki before making up their minds.

toshikoOct. 12  10:01 pm JST

Who else can replace Abe?

Any adult Japanese person in decent health who doesn't have a criminal record or any mental health problems. But preferably not another one of those utterly worthless 3rd or 4th generation politicians.

@Simon: write one name. I wrote Hosokawa once. Oh, you don't know only one person becomes the pm.

@Simon. Pm is selected from the majority party.

plasticmonkey, never voted for a LDP canidate in my entire life! Lately I have been voting Socialist Party. Thinking of the LDP winning again, makes me want to vomit.

toshikoToday  01:35 am JST

@Simon: write one name. I wrote Hosokawa once. Oh, you don't know only one person becomes the pm.

Really? I didn't know that I don't know that. Lucky there are all these people online who have never met me to tell me this kind of stuff. It appears that you have a better idea than I do myself of what I do and don't know, so you must also know what name I would write.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's snap election gamble looked like paying off after media forecasts showed his ruling bloc heading for a surprisingly big win

You mean the media that's in the pocket of the LDP? That media? Gee. Why am I not surprised?

But his main challenger, Tokyo Gov Yuriko Koike's fledgling conservative Party of Hope, appeared to be struggling, despite calls for popular policies such as an exit from nuclear power and a sales tax hike freeze.

They aren't struggling any more than the LDP.

He has called his "Abenomics" recipe of hyper-easy monetary policy, fiscal spending and promised structural reforms a success.

If he is calling Abenomics a success, the Japanese public would have to be looney tunes to vote him back into office.

Pitched as a conservative, reformist alternative to the equally conservative LDP, Koike's party aims to woo voters unhappy with Abe over the suspected cronyism scandals and a perception he'd grown arrogant.

He has.

Look, the public for the first time has a good option: If you are right wing, but hate Abe and his regime, you've got the party of hope which appears more competant and seriously less arrogant. If you are left wing, you have the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan which has very few if any, conservatives. So for the first time, we have a real left leaning opposition and a better right-wing alternative than the status quo. There is no need whatsoever to vote in the LDP. I hope the Japanese public is informed enough to understand that.

Somebody explain how japanese politics work!

Or write an article or something we dont all know whats going on.

Abe is damaged goods but he will still be re-elected as Japanese voters will happily vote for crooks and scoundrels. Even his promise to raise taxes and squander the money doesn't appear to do him any harm, and that's one of the few promises I believe he will keep.

Perhaps, instead of delaying the tax rise, the opposition should go for raising the consumption tax to 20% and talk about all the "free" stuff they will give people. Free childcare, free education, free nursing care, free expressways etc.

LDP will be the major party again. Then Koike's Party may replace Komeito.

The script tells us that he’s impregnable, poised for another big win, one that’ll not only vindicate everything that he’s done up until now, but will also secure him the mandate he needs to double down, dispense with the Mr Nice Guy pretense and complete the mission. Only the very small minded would wish to deny him that chance, would wish a Trump or Brexit scenario on such a high minded man and his exemplary team. All we can do now is hope that the pesky real world doesn’t decide to make a mockery of the best laid plans of mice and men.