LDP to lose seats, but keep comfortable majority with Komeito: poll

The LDP loses a few seats, while the people lose their ass!

Most Japanese people I know vote the way they do because their parents/teachers/senpai told them who to vote for.

Exactly what does it take for the masses here to wake up and start taking back control of their country?

A bigger, faster crisis?

But if you listen to what many voters say, they don’t want control of their country, they want the government so do something for them (rather than doing it for themselves). It’s like the think government should be like Santa Claus or something. Lots of voters like that.

And what does it take for any of these "opposition" parties to have a gram of charisma or even the most basic vision of an alternative?

Ask Isshin :)

As per the article they are to triple their representation, which makes me pleased.

Every time there is an election my employers urge us all to vote Komeito. They say it is better than the LDP. Yeah...

They should be dressed up as vampires to go with the occasion. And I don't mean Halloween.

Yes, they will win, but they won’t have support. If estimated 70% go voting and 30% vote LDP, the real population support is still even below 25%. Of course for government stability purposes they will get a seat majority by the election system procedures, but all is very far away from a majority of voters. That’s also the reason why nothing changes and almost everyone is disappointed, 79% opposed or neutral in my little calculation example.

No no no if the LDP the only light in a darkness of a world in darkness are snuffed out, then who will protect me, who will spend my tax yen. The thought almost made me question why I live in a crap house, why I work 80hrs a week. I made cup noodles but it’s now cold my tears fell into it.

This close to the election, this poll was pretty worthless. Kyodo should get its money back.

Seems like they are getting great value for their money! The LDP might lose a few seats but they are going to win with New Komeito. Why bother fighting it. Shoganai.

The LDP should get only one seat - a toilet seat - and go beneath it.

As long as the LDP win, the CIA and State Department are pleased. Any GENUINE alternative to LDP rule would be met with much consternation and opposition by Washington. Know who your masters are.

Well said @Jimizo.

Komeito, which is backed by the Soka Gakkai lay Buddhist organization

This nonsense should have no place in elections in secular countries.

We all know the LDP will win.

The election issue is how many seats they will get, loose which will be the base to feel more or less free for enacting policies

Have a Happy Halloween everyone!

Oh...and it's Election Day! And...a Sunday? Got a day off? Cool.

So kids, there's no real need to vote! Right? Besides...this is already sewn up! You know the drill.

So...Off to Shibuya with ya! Have fun, and don't get too rowdy in those cute costumes, m'kay? Gotta go back to work come Monday...

(We'll take care of things while you do...sincerely, the LDP majority.)

Japanese people very generally ‘follow the crowd’, so these ‘surveys’ are just more tools to nudge people in a specific direction.

My wife and her parents and family, I know are not voting for LDP this is because of the current state of Japan and how upset they are with the current state of affairs. We had a discussion about why Japan continues with this party. My wife's Grandparents who have passed on, would only vote strictly LDP only out of respect because they are the party that took the country from a very poor country to powerful force on the world stage. This is one of the reasons why most elderly and retired people still vote for them, not on platform, just out of respect and these clowns know this and this is why they can do what ever they want. I can clearly understand this thinking by the elderly and others, however its thinking that needs to change and quickly. These clowns need to be reckoned with and put in check for their policies by a fully prepared opposition which seems to be of lack in this country. Until this happens the LDP will continue to have the same policy. As I had said many times before, doing the same thing over and over again thinking you will get a different result this time is madness. A madness that needs to end because the way the world looks today, this election might really mean something for the future of Japan for good or for ill.

the Japan Innovation Party, a right-leaning opposition party

Well, they are a reform party.

For example, I dunno if one could really say their Basic Income proposals are “right-leaning”, but whatever.

that aligns with the LDP on some issues such as constitutional revision, is riding a wave of momentum and could triple its 11 seats, especially if it can win outside of its base in western Japan's Kansai region.

This is some good news.

But until the conservatives of Japan, who support the LDP and the CDPJ decide to vote for reforms to Japan’s Showa era systems, their influence seems to remain limited for now.

Need more rhetoric about how LDP will counter China aggression and more hot air about climate goals and victory is assured.

Though I believe these numbers are twisted by the propaganda I have no doubt in believing that the old boys are going to win again.

Japan by nature it’s too conservative and unwilling for changes that Edano or others in the opposition can really aim for victory.

Now in a modern democracy after all their scandals and bribes and misconduct of the pandemic the main party would be send home but not here.

Again,nothing will ever change,and if they do always 30 years later compared to the other major and real democracies.

It’s a myth that old people elect the LDP. Every poll I've seen says it, but here's one from 2019 in which LDP support is double among people in their twenties than people in their 60s and 70s. Look at support for the JCP in this poll. British (English) people may turn into Tories as they get older, but Japanese do not.

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASM7M63N3M7MUZPS00D.html

I guess this is because young people are so disengaged (busy if they have kids) that the LDP are the only politicians they have heard of. Older people are more likely to read newspapers and watch the news.

Kyodo News polled about 119,000 eligible voters by phone from Saturday to Tuesday.

Another poll?

At least this one states that 119 thousand eligible voters were polled by phone. Over a four-day period.

From this, the pollster tells us that various parties could gain or lose seats. And "[a]round 40 percent said they had not yet decided how to vote."

That's it?

So, how were these particular voters selected? What was the breakdown by prefered party affiliation? Or was it totally by random?

So, what exactly were these voters asked? What choices were they given?

How exactly did they respond? By the numbers and percent?

119,000 polled? Japanese voter registration is running, about what? 106 million?

This close to the election, this poll was pretty worthless. Kyodo should get its money back.

You do have to wonder if these surveys aren’t rigged and paid for by interest groups knowing it will be reported on in the very manner this article has published it. It is simply telling people “resistance is futile” the LDP is going to win it hands down so don’t bother going out and voting (for another party) and if you do decide to go out and vote, just vote for the LDP! I wonder what the voter percentage turnout out will be.

Opposition figures including CDPJ leader Yukio Edano argue wealth disparities have widened during the nearly nine years of LDP rule under Kishida's predecessors, Yoshihide Suga and Shinzo Abe, criticizing "Abenomics" for boosting corporate earnings and share prices but failing to spark wage gains.

I do not even see the LDP arguing that Abenomics closed wealth disparities are resulted in wage gains. It would be absurd so it is not really an argument.

The LDP does not care and think that they will prevail anyway with a new slogan. Abe had his "beautiful Japan" and Kishida has his "new capitalism". Both look to have similar levels of depth.

can we all appreciate the take over the world mood lighting in the photo?

These "self fulfilling prophecy" polls and the sudden disappearance of the coronavirus are clearly aimed at getting the LDP's core voters (elderly people, rural voters, the partially aware) out of their houses.

EXACTLY! WELL SAID!

This looks like an election ad for the LDP

All the election coverage does, to be fair. These "self fulfilling prophecy" polls and the sudden disappearance of the coronavirus are clearly aimed at getting the LDP's core voters (elderly people, rural voters, the partially aware) out of their houses.

When was any news by J outlets not look like advertising for LDP? Even food more delicious because of global warming according to Taro Aso might be spun into good news.

a survey conducted that quickly cannot have any reasonable confidence value. This looks like an election ad for the LDP

AGree with all 4 posters above. This poll in my opinion hopes to assure voters that the LDP will win in order to get them to vote for the LDP- kind of a self fulfilling prophecy so to speak. Like klausdorth I hope the public won't fall for that.

 spark economic growth

How? With other pledges?

I'd say its another case lemmings to the cliff...

...but with J-political choices, there are cliffs in every direction.