The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.© KYODO
Abe requests event cancellations for 10 more daysTOKYO
©2023 GPlusMedia Inc.
The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.© KYODO
Login to comment
The zero is missing at the front at this number.
Mr. Goldfish abe you're lying..... again !
... but there's no way in hell that they will request cancellation or postponement of the Olympics
Something is really strange. Why there are only 500 confirmed cases ? What kind of testing they are doing ? I hope it isn't just a swab using a q-tip.
Yeah if only Japan had listened to you they could be in the same situation Italy, Iran and China are in today. Such a missed opportunity.
This is absolutely false. The confirmed infection rate is 575 in 9600. Why is this false information allowed to stay on these threads when it is clearly intended to mislead? According to the same poster, three weeks ago COVID19 was a biological weapon developed in Wuhan, two weeks ago it was a virus created by the USA to destabilize China and now it’s not a big deal and nothing to fear.
I highly appreciate the photo and the worker who is doing the cleaning. This is the most effective way to stop the spreading of the virus. You see this in Korea, in China, and now in Japan. This is people's war against virus, as simple as that.
Actually this is the right thing to do.
I ask the same question......I doubt these numbers and this is probably because Japan is not testing aggressively like South Korea did. Also, based on the massive amount of testing done in South Korea it is certainly possible the death rate is quite a bit lower than being shown (as it is calculated based on known cases only) and it is also possible many more people have the virus in Japan but are getting better.
Finally researchers during SARS indicated that close and continuous contact with an infected person or even more continuous contact with infected persons when they were most infectious seemed to make the virus more deadly. This would explain what happened in Wuhan (remember the 10,000 + community dinner there?). Also the fact that people do not necessarily become to immune and are prone to reinfection or continuous infection would make this plausible.
If Xi is in fact visiting Wuhan and this is true news then it is a very good sign and indicative that isolating to the extent practical works.
Japan may not be testing aggressively. But just as Trump is discovering, you can't easily hide a virus in a non-dictatorship.
Tokyo-Engr, the virus has two mutations, scientifically proven, a few days ago. One is mild, and the other is aggressive. The one found in China is more aggressive one, which some believe evolved from the mild one. However, in Italy, the situation is worse than that in China. Some suggested that it because population difference, Italians have more aging population; some guess that the virus may be different. It could be both factors.
Not a fan of Abe san but I gotta say, No matter what he says, what he cancels, what he requests, what he suggests, recommends, advises, what ever, there will always be inconsiderate people going to live houses sick, bar hopping after being told they were positive, and so on. I don't need Abe san to tell me to tell my sibling to not to come to Japan. I don't need him to tell me to cancel my school events. It is called common sense.
So, I don't blame Abe san for the spread. One great example is the Osaka Live House. I believe the numbers have gone over 60 positive. This is also including family members of those who attended. ONE GUY started this!
I'm getting sick of hearing people say, "Abe acted too slow.", "He should have done it 6 weeks ago."
Remember, if China had been open and honest with the world, I don't believe we would be in this mess. Accurate information in early January and closing boarders to China would have prevent most of this mess.
So called "Corona-fatigue" is now spreading in the public. It will take more time and effort to fully restore the normal life after an emergency measure is lifted. While An extension request was quite easily made, without legal ground in the name of national emergency, we shouldn't ignore or downplay its social psychological side effect.
What is lacking in the government's action plan are clear numerical targets.
While Japan has so far avoided an explosion in infections like that seen in Korea, it won't be able to keep the schools shut for ever or the people living in quasi isolation. Unless the virus dies out, it will return.
Abe did the right thing.
While the media focuses on big (500~10,000 pax) cultural and sports events, in reality, hundreds, if not thousands of smaller meetings and events from 20~30 people and upwards have been cancelled/ postponed voluntarily by organisers, from the beginning of February. The earliest that some of these have been rescheduled is May, depending on the conditions in Japan and worldwide, with many organisers looking post-Olympics for their events.
Lol also commonly referred to as the "if you ignore it long enough, it ceases to exist" phenomenon.
A hospital very near me had a walk-in Nocov-19 case recently.
It is not far away...
It's perfectly clear that Abe doesn't want mass testing because that would make the Olympic White Elephant even harder to sustain. If nobody can see the iceberg, the ship can't sink, right, Shin-Chan?
It is just incredible that the number of infections has stabilised in the most populous city in the world. It just doesn't work out mathematically. Government advice seems to be "ignore it, and it will go away".
But given that the elderly are most at risk from this disease, Abe might find the voting demographics shift against him once this finally does blow over.
kurisupisu, have a bath with water:vinegar:alcohol=90:6:4, may help you.
So what are you talking about? Infection rates or the method used to determine if an epidemic is occurring? The formula for infection rates is simple (number of confirmed infections/population at risk for infection) x 100. The population at risk is determined by the number of people who have been exposed to a contagion.
Bugle Boy of Company B
Just extend the term and cancel the Olympics.
But we don't know about that and we can't compare the two countries infection rates. South Korea tested more than 100,000 people in few days. Japan tested so far 9600 people. Anybody with a working brain can see that there is an issue here if we want to compare things objectively.
If Abe wants to continue imposing restrictions on events or having kids stay at home, then his government should be transparent and make the necessary testing of a large number of people to have a clear understanding of the infection. Instead they are behaving like crooks and are trying to keep the number of infected people the lowest possible for political reasons.
One of the persons infected via the live house in Osaka apparently worked on the 14th floor of my office building.
I work on the 9th. Probably rode the elevator with her once or twice. Who knows?
Yet the Olympics is still a Go! Full steam ahead!
Meanwhile the UK Health Minister has tested positive and apparently having symptoms (I am assuming this from her statement that it was a bit rubbish for a few days but she was now better) as she self-isolates at home with her 84-year-old mother (now also showing symptoms)....
And I was just reading Pence says the US doesn’t have enough test kits and doesn’t have a comprehensive reporting/recording system for results in place yet......
"Japanese logic is that if you don’t do testing, there won’t be a massive outbreak."
Japanese logic, as well as all medical experts is that if you don't meet guidelines for testing, you don't get test.
Too bad, a lot of people, don't seem understand the basic science and the reason for the guidelines of testing for an infectious diseases.
Makes zero sense and you speak about science? Hum... T
To add to my last post: 25,000 people have been tested so far in UK. Again Japan: 9600.
""The 15-day Spring Grand Sumo Tournament has been held without spectators.
Popular spots such as Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo Skytree, the world's tallest broadcasting tower, have also been temporarily closed.""
When this is all over, and hopefully soon, people will remember those who cooperated with the government requests and those who did NOT. It is SAD and disturbing to see that some organizations put $ ahead of the general public safety including the well being of their own fan.
To add to my last post: 25,000 people have been tested so far in UK. Again Japan: 9600.
Because, the UK had more suspected cases and the UK had more visitors from/ to Italy. Here is some info on the UK;
The Foreign Office is advising anyone arriving in the UK from Italy since Monday evening to self-isolate for 14 days.
Get it!!!. The UK was more exposed to the virus because the UK had more contact with Italy.
Does it make sense?
Last week, Abe closes all of the schools.
Then on March 2nd, he said he would make the announcement of his next move on March 10th.
On March 10th, he finally announces................cancel everything for 10 MORE days..........
How are we surviving this crisis without your top notch leadership?
I'm guessing on March 20th, the next announcement will be........let's enjoy the indoors until April 1st when I make my next announcement?
Keep strong Abe, keep making them oh so important decisions. Good looking out.
By the way Abe, how are the Tokyo Olympics working out for ya?
Still makes zero sense since you can apply that same scientifically baseless logic to Japan with China and Korea before the government imposed the restrictions for people from those countries to enter the country.
What does this even mean? Japan has developed several clusters of infections with no connection with a foreign vector of contaminnation, so what makes UK had more "suspected cases"? Makes no sense whatsoever. Japan has several clusters of infections (and that's a fact) and they keep testing far too few people in comparison to many other countries.
So try again.
Because so far, only about 0.007% of the population (9600 people) have been tested...
Anyone who thinks that the virus isn’t spreading uncontained NOW, is clearly not paying attention or is deluded.
Italy emptied its hospitals preparing for the “tsunami of patients” that came a couple of days later.
There is is no reason to think we will not have it happen here (or in the US as well).
Abe should impose event cancellations not request
Seems to me that any person with half a brain would question these numbers and hold the government accountable for them! Just because they arent testing does not mean that the virus isnt spreading.
Next I am going to wait to hear some medical talking head make a comment like "The Japanese immune system is different and special, or something along those lines!"
The numbers here dont add up in comparison.
No test No virus
This is like the 5 year old that hides behind the curtain with his two feet showing when playing hide and seek.
And just whom might these medical experts be? The "expert" teams put together by the Americans and Japanese? The same people you see on the news day after day singing the same Abe-party tune?
How about listening to the real experts who are working on the ground. I suggest you take 10 mins to listen to this BBC intervirw with an Italian doctor who is on the front lines:
Its highly disturbing. The Chinese and Koreans were criticised for their draconian measures. They definitely did the right thing.
Meanwhile, at the moment ,the Japanese "experts" just keep requesting people to avoid crowds where possible (impossible) to wear a mask (where can I get one?), use hand sanitizer (where can I get some?), avoid standing within a metre of others (impossible) and go gargle (which is meaningless).
And, then there are THOUSANDS of people out there who want to be tested but can't, for political reasons.
No doubt, as things get worse around the world and other countries get more draconian, Abe will finally introduce more stringent measures, and mass testing will be introduced, but it will be far, far too little, too late.
Japan should have taken the initiative on this from day ONE, but the government is toothless, like most others around the world.
Check this video out so true!
Japanese government under scrutiny for handling of coronavirus
Perfectly summarizes the situation and backs up what many of us have been saying for days. Kudos for the two researchers for speaking out.
Still makes zero sense since you can apply that same scientificallyy baseless logic to Japan with China and Korea.
If you bother to look at the guidelines you will undersand. But look at the UK. The Uk is testing those with medical offices are testing those who are coughing, with a fever and shortness of breath.
So if you don't have a cough or a fever, you don't get tested. Just like Japan, Get it!
According to "Home care for patients with suspected novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection presenting with mild symptoms, and management of their contacts" of WHO, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance
A contact is a person who has had any of the following exposures:
• a healthcare-associated exposure, including providing direct care for patients with COVID-19 disease, working with HCWs infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, visiting patients or staying in the
same environment as a patient with COVID-19 disease;
• an exposure through working together in close proximity to or sharing the same classroom with a patient
with COVID-19 disease;
• an exposure through traveling with a patient who has COVID-19 disease in any kind of vehicle;
• an exposure through living in the same household as a patient with COVID-19 disease
That is only to create a first circle of contamination. A second one is created from all the people from the first ad so on until you reach the end of positive case.
And that do not even take in account the contamination from contaminated surface.
= I will let you do the math of how many people that include in compact cities relying on mass transportation.
If for some reason Japan managed to get less case than other people good but that need to be scientifically proved and investigated so that it can be reproduced in other countries. So we still end up in the same place : more testing is needed.
towingtheline said "Because so far, only about 0.007% of the population (9600 people) have been tested..."
What ? only 9600 ? China and South Korea both do 5000-10000 tests per day !
Abe, please increase the tests immediately to save the Olympics.
You are not responding to my point in which I called your argument about UK being in more contact with Italy total BS. Anyway! What you are saying is not even true. UK has 383 conformed cases out to 25,000 people tested, so it can't be that they are only testing people with symptoms. And what "The Uk is testing those with medical offices are testing those " even means?
Make zero sense so how am I supposed to get it? The all point is that precisely because they don't test enough, there is a lower number of infected people who often happen to have no symptoms. The conversation is not how many people have symptoms, but how many are infected.
@flute Here are the guidelines that the American CDC has for testing:
Most patients with confirmed COVID-19 have developed fever1 and/or symptoms of acute respiratory illness (e.g., cough, difficulty breathing). Priorities for testing may include:
Hospitalized patients who have signs and symptoms compatible with COVID-19 in order to inform decisions related to infection control.
Other symptomatic individuals such as, older adults (age ≥ 65 years) and individuals with chronic medical conditions and/or an immunocompromised state that may put them at higher risk for poor outcomes (e.g., diabetes, heart disease, receiving immunosuppressive medications, chronic lung disease, chronic kidney disease).
Any persons including healthcare personnel2, who within 14 days of symptom onset had close contact3 with a suspect or laboratory-confirmed4 COVID-19 patient, or who have a history of travel from affected geographic areas5 (see below) within 14 days of their symptom onset.
There are epidemiologic factors that may also help guide decisions about COVID-19 testing.
If you look at Japan's guidelines they are almost the same.
Why has Japan only tested 9600? Because 9600 have meet the guidelines for testing. That is Why!!!
And by the way, my point is supported by the two researchers in the video linked by natsu823. Yours is not.
Why has Japan only tested 9600? Because 9600 have meet the guidelines for testing. That is Why!!!
That's what we are saying, what you called guidelines are wrong!
You are contradicting yourself. A few posts above you claimed "So if you don't have a cough or a fever, you don't get tested. Just like Japan". So you are a joke.
Pretty comprehensive dashboard with data, infographic maps and graph. Updating all the time
Total Confirmed 119,004
Total Deaths 4,284
Total Recovered 65,757
Total Confirmed 581
Total Deaths 10
Total Recovered 101
The point is to learn from mistakes. Delays and tipping points affect the course of spread.
Burning Bush, where did you get your number 15 ? and why are you so sure about it ?
Without proper and complete test, any numbers are questionable, as simple as that.
@Burning Bush -- I'm sorry, but this is wrong. (and Wikipedia as your source is pretty much a known fail on every level).
I'm guessing you are new in Japan and don't read/speak the language, but the ACTUAL current status facts are available here: https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/houdou/houdou_list_202003.html
Most notably, the first article for TODAY (March 10th) puts us at 567 domestic infections confirmed in Japan. The 7th article indicates that as of March 9th @ 6pm, only 8771 tests had been administered.
As it stands, the math is # of infections / # of tests performed. You cannot estimate per 100,000 individuals at this stage, as you don't have a proper statistical sampling. Eventually you WILL be able to use the population in your analysis, but as it stands we don't have a mathematical frame of reference to accurately get there.
This is Statistics 101. You need to apply sample size because you only have a limited known confidence level and width. Until that time, you have to properly account for "uncertainty".
Burning Bush, would you accept the rationale that the death number may higher than 15 ? assuming the test didn't done on all diseased ?
Japan has reported 59 new infections today (highest bump since January) and a total of 19 deaths.
Yes, it's possible that widespread use of masks is useful after all since most cases are asymptomatic. Yes, it's possible that Japan lucked out and got a less aggressive strain. Yes, it's possible that no hugging, no kissing, no handshaking can bring an advantage in viral spread control. The simple answer is: at this point we don't know. There's rational basis to doubt number from the government, there's also reasons to think Japan is a true outlier compared to other countries. We just don't know at this stage.
Personally, to all people who soak into the pleasure of thinking that Japan is some kind of magical country escaped from the outbreak: I'd like first to see the recent statistics in deaths related to any case of respiratory failure or unspecified pneumonia. I bet we'd see a decent deviation from other years there.
I'm still curious where y'all are getting the number 9600???
The most recent posting on the Ministry of Health Website (7th article down for today) actually states 8711 test as of 6pm on the 9th... That's about 900 tests less than what people are quoting. Is this another media generated estimate? You can always check directly here (and use Google Translate if you don't read Japanese):
I would recommend Abe to immediately get support from China on test kits, giving the fact that China has the capacity. China's experience showed that it takes about three months to get it under control. Give another three months to make sure it doesn't come back.
The virus is now in my neighbourhood. Interestingly, we first heard about it from a neighbour yesterday, it was only confirmed by authorities today.
Burning Bush, giving the size of Japan, 9000 tests so far is just too small sample. I am afraid that the number will dramatically higher than that, if the test is performed freely on all possible situations.
The big problem is that politician are not scientists, that is why they are jokes.
@Burning Bush -- Re-read what I wrote -- Eventually you will be able to calculate by population, but at this stage there are several factors that make it impossible. This is just a fundamental part of Statistics.
I'm also guessing that you don't have a mathematical background otherwise you would see immediately that the "uncertainty" principle makes it impossible at this stage to do the calculation, as we haven't achieved a proper "population" (in the mathematical sense of statistics) to use 100,000 as a divisor.
Quoting stats measurements when you have no idea what you are talking about just makes you look really really dumb.
You'll be soon "free" to pay 20.000 yen if you want to get tested. In a country where people queue for hours to save 100 yen on a bad doughnut, we are not sure how that is going to work out. Or maybe we are?
SK government is covering the expenses for extensive testing, the sign of a civilized government.
Giovanni Pascarella, both SK and China do free tests. That is the basis to get the virus under control. I think Japan can and should do that as well. Hope I am not wrong.
Again I’ll ask, why are you using the method to determine an epidemic as a means to calculate infection rates? It’s not the same calculation. Furthermore, you keep intentionally omitting the fact that time is also used in the calculation for determining epidemics.
In my opinion, the key question is not how many people are being tested or not in Japan. The key question is what is the trend of people now being hospitalized because of serious respiratory problems in Japan? Is it increased dramatically over the last 2 weeks or so, or not? If not, it means that probably, and despite our belief or bias caused by what's happening in Italy, it means that the virus here is not spreading.
But again, we don't even have this number now...so, we our blind and incapable of judgment.
Even in US, many states are now starting to provide free testing.
Trump and CDC initially downplay the situation just like Japanese government, but now they are changing their stance after hearing so much criticism coming from many Americans and medical professionals who praise how South Korea's handling the tests.
So you agree that asymptomatic people are mostly not being tested.
People part of the circle of contact are not being tested even though they could be asymptomatic but contagious. Thus they are potentially spreading the illness.
Symptomatic people are to wait to be tested thus delaying the time when a circle of contamination can be established thus increasing the number of layer of circle.
I got the feeling that you saw the use of testing just as something to sort out among ill people whose have the illness and whose have not. Is it that ?
Reckless, keep others one meter away from you, minimally.
They use data provided by several sources and compiled there :
(there is several layer)
And since you are at it other useful link for Japan :
my comment was not meant to be critical of the local health system in general, as a whole. And I am relieved that you've had a positive experience and resolution. Take care!
Testing is not a solution to virus containment. On the country it could disrupt and overwhelm healthcare services. Italy where 54,000 people have been tested intensively for a short period time, is now suffering its opportunity cost, manpower and equipment shortage at hospital, with many critical patients left untreated. In South Korea, another spike just happened yesterday in Seoul, only a day after the health ministry was publicly boasting its "success".
Unfortunately, you should be using actual statistics that the Ministry of Health has released as opposed to these random domains that have loosely-verifiable connections.
You'll note that the spreadsheet and nothing else on the site provides any justification to the 9600 figure.
The link I provided above is coming straight from the proverbial "horse's mouth" in terms of the current state of Japan's data... Hard to believe that the Ministry of Health would be less aware than a site where the domain was secured less than 30 days ago (2/14/2020 - via "namecheap" - lol)
Admittedly, these "trackers" are lovely for the folks here that don't speak/read Japanese (this one is certainly drawing traffic/marketing value to the kid (Shane Reustle https://reustle.co/) who just put his own domain online a year prior.
But for those of us that do speak/read Japanese... Going to the source is much more reliable in the long-run
Some hospitals in Northern Italy are currently overwhelmed by the number of mild and severe cases that require medical attention, not simply by the number of tested people.
Mild and severe cases require medical attention, oxygen supply, and can easily degenerate if not taken care of properly. With numbers of mild and sever cases going up so fast, it's clear that medic personnel is forced to take some decisions based on priority. Northern Italy has some of the best medical facility and knowledge of all Europe, I trust those doctors can distinguish between non-sever and severe cases.
noriahojanen, just being informed by Chinese foreign minister that China will provide medical aids to Italy, possibility to send a medical experts too.
SK and Japan are at opposite extremes. SK is rigorously and proactively testing to identify those infected, and Japan is taking passive approach by testing those only showing symptoms and meeting certain eligibility. We will only know which approach is better once things are settled down, but for the time being most of Western medical experts are praising SK's approach.
Even in US, Trump and CDC initially downplay the situation just like Japan, but now they are changing their stance after so much criticism coming from many Americans and medical professionals who praise SK's approach. Only time will tell..
@noriahojanen -- Taken at face-value your comment would be correct, however Testing leads to awareness, and awareness leads to containment. The guy who tested positive and went bar-hopping right after -- perfect case of the stupidity that occurs when the general populous considers it "not that big of a deal"
Right now, the vast majority of the country still thinks this is just a Hokkaido issue, or that it's about to "blow over". Largely due to the fact that our case numbers are being kept artificially low. If they open the testing floodgates and the country quickly realizes just how severe things are -- That will be the road to containment.
Utopia, Japan can always take extreme measures as SK and China do. Japanese people are smart people, and try to balance the cost and prove that they are more efficient. But right now, Japan also needs confidence building for the Olympics, by showing hard numbers. In that sense, it is worthy to increase the scale of the tests.
@ Utopia and @Akie
Your comments are highlighting and important point here.
Some countries are stuck in this logic of "who's doing the best job".
This attitude is an ignorant pissing contest in the face of a serious threat.
Countries should come together now more than ever, overcome stupid squabbles and adopt shared and common strategies to face this emergency. It's also important to make the best use of the knowledge Chinese experts have unfortunately accumulated so far, by listening to them and hosting them when possible to seek some help and advice.
Akie, I agree with you. Japan should increase the scale of the tests. Moreover actual number of daily tests being done is far below the capacity revealed by the government.
there are lots of expert comments today,
the problem is that this virus doesn't care who you are, countries, nationalities,
the problem does not go away, if you don't have aggressive testing, or slow testing.
so crossing your fingers and wishing will not help you.
longer you wait, those people with infection will be too far gone to recover.....
Giovanni Pascarella, agreed.
I agree as well.
Utopia, although Japan didn't do large scale free tests, so far, but Japan did many things the same as SK and China: wash hands, clean public areas, wear masks, and quarantine the cruise ship. All those actions help tremendously in slowing down the spread of the virus. As I said, there is nothing that Japan can't do.
Akie, I am not tying to disrespect the people of Japan. I do believe that Japan has high degree of public hygiene and its people are trying their best to slow down the spread. My only complaint is how the government is handling the situation. It should take more proactive approach.
I have little to add. I just want to repost mainly.
I think that number is not hard to find. But maybe it's nothing remarkable so no one has brought it up.
The problem does go away for most of the infected.
Well, the experts are saying something like 80% of those infected will be asymptomatic. So you are right that the problem for those infected but asymptomatic will eventually go away, but those infected will still continue to spread the virus to others. Unless you identify those infected by rigorous and proactive testing and properly quarantine them, you won't be able to slow down the spread.
TARA TAN KITAOKA
With these actions by abe, I am sure things are getting worse.What are U not telling the public abe ???
Yes, I know the context and limits of what I posted, I just wanted the poster above to know what was posted was.... well not true.
Anyway, clearly, rigorous and proactive testing is not the strategy opted for by the government. One reason could be because they are not capable of that, so of course they have to settle for next best realistic strategy ( that they could think of).
I got it. Yes, I guess that could be a strategy.
In any rate, Abe and his government just can't face the truth.
Abe clearly listens (succumbs) to criticism so if the cries are loud enough he may eventually listen.
As for me I'm still not convinced proactive testing is the best way. It could easily snowball into something that may drown the health infrastructure's capabilities.
Kyodo: How do you know the woman in the photo is wearing the mask as a precaution against coronavirus? She may just have allergies and understands that surgical masks do nothing to protect people from getting viruses.
You’ll find that figure cited in chart in this document.
It’s the same information that the covid19 website uses to compile their information.
The fast-moving Covid-19 is spreading across the globe and just how bad things become remains to be seen but it will be ugly. The long latency period before someone shows symptoms makes it is quite possible for a person to be carrying the virus but show no signs whatever when they arrive at the airport or pass through screening.
This is not over, it is just starting. Covid-19 may be the catalyst for a global economic reset long overdue or simply a huge bump in the road. Because of hidden agendas, incompetence and a lack of testing we have no idea how far this has spread across the world.
Saga-Ken have announced that they’re going to reopen their schools on Monday, given that nobody’s tested positive for the virus yet.
Seems very, very premature....
The UK has just announced the action plan which is pretty identical to Japan's.
Going on a different path, the UK will basically keep schools and public events open and as schedule (but are still subject to further scrutiny due to criticism). They are concerned about "Corona-fatigue" setting in the public mind due to mass cancellations or delays.
Although the contrast in approaches has remained to be seen, the latest updates, available/empirical findings suggest that Japan/UK model is viable and effective.
Italy is coming under criticism for its active testing which has ended up exhausting medical resources.
Sorry for a Japanese text, please use google-translate..
Added to my previous post.
Testing with PRC method has yet to run at a 100 % accuracy as there are cases that persons tested negative turn out to be positive later. Duo to the first mistaken result, those negative persons could be responsible for the virus transmission.
Meanwhile positive-to-negative errors seem highly unlikely. But according to the current guideline, all "positive" cases, regardless of clinical level, must immediately be quarantined at designated facility. That would be responsible for overcrowds at hospitals and exhaustion of healthcare services.
At micro, individual levels I strongly advise people having tested negative to continue to behave cautiously with frequent hand-washing, face-mask use, away from big indoor crowds for a while. They are so far working, fundamental rules regardless of different state responses.
Social distancing, something which doesn't need encouraging here in Japan, could also be a big factor in the seemingly low infection rates.
And the good thing about it is the segment of the population which is least likely to practice social distancing, the kids, are also the least susceptible ones.
Where in the article to you get the idea that Great Britain will not test people ?
Assuming there is no error that is even stating the opposite :
"isolation" is what is done with infected people
"quarantine" is what is done with potentially infected people
Nobody is requesting japanese government to put all infected in hospital with extended care. People are asking to be tested to avoid spreading it. We can ask JT to make a poll, but I pretty sure that people will prefer self-isolation at home than hospital if they are not at risk, leave alone and display at worst mild symptom as long as they can still get supervised by hospital in case of their health turn bad.
You refereed about "Corona-fatigue" what is your data/link about that ? (I am asking about current observation of the phenomenon.)
The article explain that the medical system was already in difficulty (lack of money) thus was not able to face this kind of situation. And that it was also missing staff, which seems logical since several hospital turned into cluster as the patient 0+1 went to several hospital before he was diagnosed.
Moreover, it state that it is most likely that before the outbreak at the end of February the virus was going spreading since the end of January. Meaning that out of the blue they just had to deal with a massive outbreak. The biggest the outbreak, the higher the chance that people at risk of developing complication get infected.
And Italia has, currently more or less, the same politic than UK is planning (according to your link) : they do not hospitalize asymptomatic people : https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/28/news/cambia_il_metodo_di_conteggio_esclusi_i_positivi_asintomatici-249765660/
They "isolamento domiciliare" them. They do not even count them in their internationally shared number of cases : " non comunicare più agli organismi internazionali che fanno i conti dell’epidemia tutti i casi asintomatici"
So I do not see how the active testing exhausted medical resources. Pretty much everybody involved is exhausted but it is because they are dealing with a really high number of symptomatic patient and I hope they know how grateful people are for they hard work (even if they do not say it).
Thanks, you saved me the trouble to have to find again the right one.
Mitigation is really minimal in Japan. Clubs, live music venues, etc. are mostly all still open. Urging for action will only affect the biggest players, but most small-mid sized establishments will do nothing.
For Japan to even consider serious action, daily "confirmed" cases would need to be well over 1,000; but that is simply impossible under existing restrictions to testing and medical care access. Because of suppressed testing, Japanese government and the world will never know even when the situation deteriorates, since the current testing capabilities is only able to identify a few hundred cases max.
Japan government will really only be able to realize an major outbreak only after an uptick in the official government death counts, which likely mean a 3-4 month lag. Actions will likely take another 1 month of deliberations, and will likely lack any teeth for enforcement.
You got me wrong? I do agree with the basic idea above, and this is what Japan as well as UK are seeking. Those (majority) with mild symptom or subclinical stages should be self-quarantined at home. Testing should be selective with doctors' consent, and fast-tracked to most risky people (or aged).
Also please consider reliability issues of testing. Negative-turn-positive outpatients may unconsciously spread the virus to wider public; positive-turn-negative ones regardless of level still risk overwhelming medical services as guaranteeing at designated places is compulsory. Random testing without real medical advice and care is very harmful to public health.
Thank you for the link. I read the article. If you read it, you will also find the following in the article :
Moreover, the article does not tell you much about UK's testing approach. I believe UK is much more proactive in testing than Japan. They even set up a first drive-through testing location just like SK.
Good points! I agree with you 100%. I could not have said it better!
A sensible re-course, but they should have done much earlier before the whole healthcare system near-collapsed.
With daily update figures, it's obvious and empirically proven that Italy and, lesser degree South Korea have failed to make a priority in their course of action. Currently most vocal complaints out there relate to shortage of manpower, accommodation and equipment; seriously ill patients stay on long queues waiting for care (not testing).... some in vain.
Resources are not infinite. Consider the opportunity cost of pro-active testing which "hijacks" medical staff and equipment at the expense of other significant services they can or should do. I think Japan should learn a less from these two failing cases, not their pro-active testing. Testing itself cannot save lives.
@zichi yeah, when I heard that the number of infections in elite top 9000, I was like holy &$*@! well it’s good that these travel bands are finally being implemented. Because I also read that 64,000 people who had the virus worldwide, have since recovered. And doing more stuff like this, will dramatically help in increasing that number. So hopefully, we can get real control over this virus very soon.
I don't find your logic plausible. You are stating that testing efforts and patient care are competing for the same limited resource and, therefore, proactive testing should be discouraged to provide better patient care(??). I think that's BS. Testing efforts and patient care are two mutually exclusive fronts in the war with COVID19.
You need to perform rigorous testing in order to eliminate or slow down the spread.You provide patient care in order to increase the survival rate for those people who are infected.
You have to do both, not just one in order to win the war with the virus. Those two fronts do not compete for each other; they have different goals.
Both Italy and SK are at the front line of the battles. Both of those countries should be praised for proactively attacking the common enemy, the virus. Certain failures in patient care front in those countries are due to triage issue cause by exponential increasing number of patients. Yes, they may have lost some battle, but that doe not mean they are failing the war. They just have to do the better job in patient triage and allocating the resource more effectively to increase the patient survival rate, but that does not mean they should stop testing efforts required to slow down the spread.
Yes, Japan has to learn from both Italy and SK as well as China. China and Italy started proactive testing once initial outbreak became more rampant in general population. If they have started earlier, they probably have the better numbers now. I think SK was very proactive from the start, but the secretive religious group apparently evaded the SK's efforts. It's hard to predict that kind of anomaly. In any rate, the important thing is that the war is not over yet, and these countries are at the front line fighting the battles coming at them. Japan should lean from them and be more proactive.
I already explained to you that you are inferring something which is not written in the article, it clearly state : "self -isolating" not "self-quarantine". So provide another link baking your assessment that UK is not to test people, please.
You should read the date of article : 2020/02/28 ; cluster detected 10 days prior, 888 cases at that time.
So you understand that the problem is that there is too many seriously ill patient. Do you think they became ill because they were tested ? How do you expect it to reduce the amount of "seriously ill patients [...] waiting for care" (I would like links for these kind of argument too) by not testing people ?
I do not understand your logic.
Please don't miss reliability issues of testing. By technical errors, false negative cases could spread the virus while false positives would lead to unnecessary treatment, disrupting overall medical resources.
Japan is more proactive not in testing, but in caring those in most urgent need. They are beefing up healthcare capacity and readiness. Large majority (about 80%) with mild symptom are found surviving without medical care.
Whatever you are trying to argue, the fact is self-evident and undeniable; Both Italy and SK (despite latecomers) have produced a far more number of casualties than Japan have. If not yet convinced, please show me any successful case where random, proactive testing have led to a smaller death toll.
At some earlier point I may have mixed up terms self-isolating and self-quarantine. .. I mean self-isolating comes before testing. Self-quarantine at home may be further asked for those testing positive with non- or mild symptom.
UK's NHS gives guidance, according to which people should take several steps to reach testing.
My point is, such pre-testing screening process should be installed and respected. Pro-active universal testing scheme would be available for anyone at anytime at will. But that would breach the process and end up overwhelming health care systems, just as seen in Italy and SK. Note that reliability for fast test kit is also questioned by experts.
No. too many people who are NOT so seriously ill still try to come see a doctor just for demand of testing or quarantine arrangement (in case testing positive but with non-or mild symptom). Beds and equipment, healthcare staff can be occupied or disrupted by those "unnecessary" people. Without a proper priority or triage, seriously ill patients are likely to miss treatment or have it too late. Unfortunately, we have already seen chaos, empirical cases of higher death toll in Italy and to lesser degree South Korea.
No it do not.
Isolation is for infected people.
Quarantine is for potentially infected people.
You still fail to prove it. Your source clearly state that the system is overwhelmed by ill people not by positively tested people.
And you fail to state were is the problem as you acknowledge that these people are ill and it seems even fairly ill as you say : "not so seriously ill".
That is not quarantine. That is isolation. They tested positive. Tested positive - isolation ; Suspected - quarantine. Seems your link are do not do this distingo. Perhaps UK english do not use it, so I get why you can find it unclear.
"can be" so that is not sure. Perhaps, it is possible, we do not know, ... As usual you are still the only one claiming that all tested positive people should be isolated in hospital when people tell you that that is not what is requested and that is not what other country do.
Up to date UK policy, not the one during the phase 1 when they considered the illness was still mostly imported.
I will let you do the math of how many people are eligible to be tested. (And yet again they are not requesting to put all infected people in hospital).
You understand that empirical does not mean comparaison of raw number totally extracted of their context of emergence, collect and so on, right ?
Why don't you show me any successful previous pandemic cases where proactive testing is discouraged to reduce the death toll?
Again, Testing and Patient Care are not competing activities. Testing is to eliminate/slow down spread of virus, and Patient care is to reduce the death toll. You have do both.
US congress just had a hearing with CDC on why US cannot perform enough tests to properly assess the spread. Many congress men used SK's example to question level of tests done in US.
Outside of Japan, all the first world countries are rapidly ramping up their testing capabilities and started proactive testing just like Italy and SK. .
Japan is NOT unique. I hope you wake up and see what's going on outside of Japan.
i don't need to show you crap, PM needs to start testing more people, stop the red tape, unless you test more people with symptoms , you will have your own pandemic in Japan where you have large population over 60.