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Do you think Russia is going to invade Ukraine?

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I think the cost would be too high, and Putin needs an "offramp" of some kind, but this may be a diversion from what he is really doing in other worlds of evil.

There seems to be insufficient infrastructure for China to take over as the primary market for Russia right now, but I expect it.

3 ( +10 / -7 )

Traditionally, Russia acts first and deals with any consequences later. Take Afghanistan in 1979, for example or the Crimea just a few years ago. If they were going to do it, they would have done it by now. This is Putin flexing his muscles in order to see what the west's reaction will be....

7 ( +16 / -9 )

No, but the West will try very hard to provoke it and then accuse Russia of doing so.

-11 ( +16 / -27 )

I've been listening to podcasts etc by people in Russia and Russians elsewhere and they say nobody is thinking such a thing. Even today the president of Ukraine asked "What invasion?" It seems more like NATO bluff

4 ( +17 / -13 )

white house and its corrupted media outlets are working hard on creating of picture of "bad Russia" and "Russia as agressor" by spreading of fake news antirussian propaganda.Bloomberg as good example.

reality on the ground says there is no single evidence that Russia will attack unless not provoked by some event Gliwice 2022 caused by US backed people-its highly likely.

so my anwer is NO,Russia will not attack Ukraine unless is not provoked.

5 ( +16 / -11 )

Russia has moved 130,000 troops to positions surrounding Ukraine on three sides and they are there for a purpose. Initially to try to force concessions from the west. That objective has failed so they either go home or double down and they have sent even more troops to the border. Everyone is waiting to see if Russia invades and they do want that land route to Crimea so they dont rely only on the bridge connection. They may have a limited action to achieve that long held goal and to expand the territories around Donbas region.

Any steps inside Ukraine will trigger the NATO/Western response of economic retaliation including banning Russia from the SWIFT financial transaction system. Such actions will last many years or decades as Russia has already found from seizing Crimea.

We all hope the forces inside Russia will stand down and return to base but with Russia you can never know.

11 ( +17 / -6 )

As much as America wants them to, no they aren't. Whether you like him or not, Putin isn't stupid and is not going to play into America's hands so easily.

1 ( +12 / -11 )

No need for that. The Russians will just wait until the political wind in Kiev turns ‘democratically’ and they are invited by a then majority. They have very strictly declared that an Ukraine completely in a Western environment is quite a red line, so the future for the Ukraine can only be strict officially declared neutrality or going back one day sooner or later to a union with Russia, comparable to Belarus or some other neighboring countries bordering the South of Russia. An invasion is therefore not necessary, the Ukraine will come by itself.

-3 ( +6 / -9 )

They have very strictly declared that an Ukraine completely in a Western environment is quite a red line, so the future for the Ukraine can only be strict officially declared neutrality or going back one day sooner or later to a union with Russia,

Except what the Ukraine does is not the Kremlin's choice but the people of Ukraine's choice. They can align any way they see fit, as can Russia or any other sovereign state. Russia or specifically Putin, must accept it is not his decision. The Ukraine will move closer to NATO the more Russia threatens. With a large portion of pro Russians now no longer getting a vote in Ukraine elections by being in the Donbas area, it is now much less likely that a pro Russian party will ever again win elections in the Ukraine.

It is inevitable that the Ukraine becomes a part of the EU and NATO, unless Russia changes its stripes and its method of rigging elections in Putin's favor. Like China, Russia is pushing neighbors away and into the arms of the West. They have nobody to blame but Putin.

0 ( +8 / -8 )

Where's the 'Don't know, but I hope not' option?

19 ( +20 / -1 )

Agree with Geoff above. This seems more like Putin testing the Biden administration than anything else. It is a dangerous game of chicken, nonetheless.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

Putin has intentionally painted himself into a corner of his own making and will then blame the USA as planned. He's the only one creating the problem.

Russia should have been financially punished for taking over Crimera. Doing nothing has only emboldened Putin

3 ( +13 / -10 )

Putin and Xi had a meeting recently. So the more important question for the USA is whether China will invade Taiwan at the same time?

-3 ( +9 / -12 )

They'll attack and take at least part of it, and stop there if it's not full-out war. Putin's getting older, and his dream is the old Soviet Empire. For guys like him, when they go, they want to take everything down with them; same with NK generals, and lunatics in the Pentagon. They've had the weapons and the will for years, and have been waiting.

-6 ( +5 / -11 )

no they will not.

its US domestic politics. If he doesnt invade, doesnt mean he wasnt going to! he was stopped by the brilliance of the US president!

* But, on the other hand, if we were not threatening the sanctions and the rest, it would guarantee that Putin would invade.*

*It’s about diplomacy deterrence. Diplomacy deterrence. And the president’s made it very clear. There’s a big price to pay for Russia to go there. So, if Russia doesn’t invade, it’s not that he never intended to. It’s just that the sanctions worked.” … “I’m very proud of the work that the president has done.”*

-4 ( +6 / -10 )

The murder-industrial complex just has barracks fever. Nothing more to see here.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

No. Liz Truss went to Moscow and told Putin and Lavrov to stop it. They're probably still quaking in their boots.

Isn't this all about preventing US "allies" from doing business with Russia/China and forcing them to buy American instead?

-5 ( +6 / -11 )

Liz Truss went to Moscow and told Putin and Lavrov to stop it

...forgetting G for Geography and H for History of her Encyclopaedia Brittanica.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

The Cold War, contrary to what we have repeatedly been told, din not end in the 1990s … it morphed into a lot more sophisticated scourge on humankind.

8 ( +9 / -1 )

100%. Maybe even before the end of the Olympics.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

The poll needs an "I don't know" option. I have no idea if he will or not.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

They need Trump's approval.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

grandstanding at its best. Helping his buddy out with the Olympics by distracting the worlds attention and once again forcing America to look right instead of left

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Russians will probably avoid a full-scale invasion at this point, for multiple reasons. Putin staged a TV appearance with Lavrov yesterday, talking over a 7-meter table (the paranoid dwarf is afraid of close contact with people these days), where Lavrov is "explaining him that there is a path for negotiation still left". They sure will keep part of their military around Ukraine's border (they can't just go home without getting anything out of the situation). They may "recognize" the areas of Eastern Ukraine under their control as "independent countries", and then station their forces there officially "on the request" of these "countries" (thus following their own example of Georgia's Abkhasia and North Ossetia). All of that under the pretext of "protection of Russian-speaking people", of course. Again, that would be in violation of the existing agreements, but when was the last time Russia cared about international agreements?

Putin is not a strategist, he is an ex-spy (even that is an overstatement, though - most of his career in East Germany he was shuffling papers in his small Dresden office), so he would prefer covert operations, faster actions, more than a long and bloody campaign. You know those kids that hit someone, steal whatever they can and quickly runaway, and if caught deny everything? That's him, according to people to know or knew him closely. That's why warnings like "we watch you, and we know that what you're up to" actually do work.

One thing is clear: when it comes to the aging Russian ruler, there is no point in "talking him down", "looking into his eyes", "reboot the relationship", "meet in the middle", and all that idealism. The man lives in his own world. Medically speaking, isolation and palliative care are the best options here.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

Only Putin knows. And hell, even he himslf might not know right now, because he's already placed all his pieces on the board. All he has to do is decide whether to pull the trigger or not at the last minute.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Russia will never invade Ukraine, it is just a pathetic effort by the US not to lose its declining power, after its ridiculous withdrawal from Afghanistan, only fools continue to believe the pathetic US loser's rhetoric..

Lord Putin rules!!..

-7 ( +5 / -12 )

There never was an invasion plan or invasion attempt. It's a storm in a teacup initiated by US & UK in their continuous endeavors to contain Russia by creating havoc around it & involving it in possible wars. US tried their luck in August 2008 as they incited Saakashvili of Georgia to attack Russian peace keepers in South Ossetia. Georgian army was defeated & US command vehicles were captured & never returned despite US multiple demands.

US intelligence reports about Russian build up & imminent invasion are no different from Collin Powell's Ampulla in front of UNSC, proving to the world Iraq's WMDs that never existed.

3 ( +8 / -5 )

Serhii Korennov

(the paranoid dwarf is afraid of close contact with people these days),

Sick people will always find something negative wherever they want it to be.

FYI Putin has tested positive for COVID-19 & he tries to protect people by sitting away from them.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Putin is such a loser.

Not surprising him and Trump were all buddy buddy. Losers of a feather.

0 ( +8 / -8 )

@mjamil

Russia has placed over 100,000 soldiers and heavy artillery all along the Ukrainian border. What is it that you think they are doing? Running drills?

Your statement is truly bizarre to somehow blame the US and UK for Russia’s aggression.

-4 ( +4 / -8 )

No. Russia are always causing aggro like this. It's a political game, in this case taken a bit too far.

Putin will know that the Ukraine is not the Moscow-leaning Crimea, and that this is the age of the internet. If Russian forces invade and the Ukrainian government surrender, the Ukrainian people will keep on fighting, quietly, every chance they get. There are about 25 million Ukrainians of an age to take on the occupying force, and every Russian official and soldier will be a legitimate target for abduction and execution. All of that can be caught on video and circulated globally. How many dead Russian invaders not going home before the Russian people turn on Putin? Empires are out of fashion. Killing a member of an occupying force is a just and legitimate act. Every time an invading Russian soldier or official was caught on their own, relaxed or sleeping, there would be one less, and another video to release.

Weirdly, Washington seems to have been paving the way for a Russian invasion, pulling diplomats out and running tactical scenarios, almost baiting Putin to move in. Maybe Biden wants to divert attention from the state the US is in.

Russia and America should stop trying to re-run the 'Great Game'. Both nations need forward looking leaders to begin some serious climate change mediation and engage globally, not old men seeking to reboot the cold war and distract their citizens with nationalist rhetoric against foreign nations.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

I think Biden and the European left wing are looking for distractions to what is looking like a cascade of policy failures on the left wing (especially in light of inflation and growing crises in the Middle East), but it might have had the unintended effect of drawing Russia into actually invading the territory.

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

I don't see them invading. As much as Putin wants the USSR back I don't think he'll invade and so start a chain of events which could lead to some idiot unleashing a tactical nuclear weapon. That's my fear - all it takes is a bad day for someone and we're toast.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

100%. Maybe even before the end of the Olympics.

I would tend to agree with that.

Not surprising him and Trump were all buddy buddy. Losers of a feather.

What? Trump has nothing to do with the US possibly going to war with our nuclear equivalent.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

I reckon Putin's aim was to divide Europe, but the US and UK made Germany a good enough to counter that threat.

Now that Plan A has failed Ukraine is now in an even more dangerous predicament, because Plan B is harder to read and Putin does not want to look like a chump.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

you have been posting Putin/Russia would not invade Ukraine.

No, I have been posting that the US won't do anything and that Putin will take it should he invade

What has changed your mind.

Nothing. Maybe in the beginning I thought that Putin might not be that stupid, but that quickly changed, I think he will invade and Biden will be holding the baby without the bath water.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

There is too much to lose!!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Look up Kennedy and the "Cuban Missile Crisis" and you will know that the then USSR was building missile bases in Cuba as a hedge against the close range strategic NUCLEAR missiles the U.S. had placed in Turkey and Italy aimed at Moskva. The lying message of the day given to Americans was that the USSR was the aggressor and unilaterally staging nuclear capability too close to Washington and NYC (the REAL concern). When Khrushchev refused to back down, the American missiles in Turkey and Italy were destroyed and the Russians peacefully packed up their toys in Cuba and went home. We have the SAME situation now in Ukraine where the U.S., with the help of the corrupt government of Ukraine, wants to place its puppet NATO directly on Russia's border and Russia is saying "NO!" just as a significant Russian or Chinese military presence in Cuba would be STRONGLY objected to by the U.S. today. This entire 'crisis' is a product of American aggression as we also see in the South China Sea (China's Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico). It wasn't Khrushchev who 'backed down' during the 'Cuban Missile Crisis', it was JFK...but, as we see, real history means nothing to 'patriotic Americans' for whom "Know Thyself" would create almost terminal cognitive dissonance...

1 ( +2 / -1 )

I think he will invade and Biden will be holding the baby without the bath water.

...you're supposed to keep the baby and get rid of the bathwater. That's the entire point of the expression.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

No. As has already been said, Putin isn't stupid. The threat of an invasion is enough to jack up the price of crude oil.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Dress rehearsal for Taiwan

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Putin and Biden are manipulating stock exchanges with their announcements, rather like Musk's tweets affected the value of BitCoin.

Some wealthy, connected Russians and Americans will be minting it out of this.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

This didn’t age well. All those who said ‘no’…any reflections?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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