Yes just like every technological advance, and also create new opportunities and jobs. Though I agree it is not clear how quickly it will happen and there are a number of regulatory problems that will need sorting out.
Yes, but not anytime soon though. I can already imagine when they begin to introduce autonomous vehicles, we will see very stiff resistance from delivery and public transport workers. Just imagine when drones became commercially available, I could imagine helicopter and fixed wing aircraft pilots grumbling because the average person can already take aerial shots and do aerial surveys for cheap and on demand.
No, they just won’t come neither at a great scale nor at average speeds that are needed or we are already used to in all our developed societies and economies. Those self-driving and really autonomous cars will only be established within a few limited and especially prepared areas and mostly at very low speeds.
@runner3 Good question, that verifies why millions of people will be out of work, because the insurance company that rip off people will have to get rid of millions of employees and that is just one industry!
People will be put out of jobs, but they're still a net benefit to society. Think of all the visually impaired people who will no longer be effectively banned from the millions of jobs that require cars just to get to them. Partially blind people, epileptics, even elderly who just don't have the reflexes... these people will finally have freedom of movement.
When the ATM came out, they said bank tellers would be out of jobs. No so fast. We have autopilots but there are still humans in the cockpit. There are robotic workers on assembly lines but people are still there, too. Self-driving cars may increase the need for new laws and regulations so maybe that industry and others would see more humans. Cyclical adjustment.
Those self-driving and really autonomous cars will only be established within a few limited and especially prepared areas and mostly at very low speeds.
That's the present situation because this technic is still in its infancy. I believe this will change rapidly within the next decade.
With new tech there are always ways to create new jobs. Look at solar and other green energy tech; true, the few remaining coal mining jobs for those who refuse to learn knew skills are threatened, but MILLIONS of new jobs have been created for those who are just starting out and/or willing to innovate.
When the ATM came out, they said bank tellers would be out of jobs. No so fast. We have autopilots but there are still humans in the cockpit. There are robotic workers on assembly lines but people are still there, too. Self-driving cars may increase the need for new laws and regulations so maybe that industry and others would see more humans. Cyclical adjustment.
Yeah, you're right, but when I used to go to banks in the 70s before ATMs, there were usually eight to ten tellers servicing customers at my nearest bank. After ATMs, there were about three to four.
Factories have seen a HUGE decrease in the number of workers. A car factory would often have hundreds, if not thousands, of workers in a plant. Now a factory is predominantly precise machinery with only a few dozen people on the plant floor.
Yeah, there are still bank tellers and factory workers, but the millions who would've had these jobs as an option, no longer do.
If most delivery vehicles are going to be self-driving, millions will be out of a job.
The nature of the job will change into managing the machinery (soft and hardware), but yes likely less jobs in total.
Who pays when there's an accident?
Interesting question, ideally if fully auto with no possible intervention of the driver then the car company will as they have most control / prevention. But it's hard to imagine it happening in reality.
Personally, I think one day it'll be virtually impossible to drive a car manually. But before that, probably automated cars will still need a driver as a backup or for some specific situations.
Self driving cars are a paradigm shift, and will definitely result in a loss of job. And a gain in other jobs. Are people complaining about the lack of blacksmiths to get their horseshoes made? Nope. And yet, they use to be prevalent.
The world changes. So do employment opportunities. Trying to artificially prevent that is stifling progress.
When the ATM came out, they said bank tellers would be out of jobs.
It wasn't the ATM that put bank tellers out of jobs, it was internet banking.
I remember in the UK when turning buses into single-man operation (Bus drivers were almost all male at that time) and got rid of conductors was supposed to be the end of the world.... how could anyone drive a bus AND hand out tickets?
Why would it? It will create entirely new industries and jobs
Can you explain the "new industries and jobs"?
Let's see building new cars/trucks?
Nope if anything demand will drop and the present workforce will also be replaced by automation even more!
Maintenance of these new driverless vehicles?
Again nope because all the part like the present EV cars now are modular, just pull out replace and a robotic machine can do it.
This is what I just cannot figure out and when asked no one gives a complete answer just some vague "there will be new opportunities" deflection.
The reality is self driving cars will take jobs, EV cars will take jobs, automated, production lines will take jobs, and no this time there are not the new industries to replace those jobs.
ICE cars, other industrial revolution advances created maintenance and support jobs.
We are not seeing any of this now, computer diagnosis, modular repair done by machine, etc..
So production done by machine, driving by machine, maintenance by machine, repairs mostly by machine, etc... So again what new opportunities and jobs will their be and please someone be specific.
This will be specific to location. Self driving cars will only be prevelent in cities.
You underestimate certain groups.
If we have both self driving and humans driving and accidents happen, we are going to see the demand to stop people from driving, it will not be maybe it will be 100% guaranteed this is the future if we let it.
The argument will be " the unpredictable equation is human reaction human error" "self-driving cars all communicate between eachother avoiding xyz" so logically the solution is stop humans.
So if people are still driving in the non city areas, they will not be permitted into urban areas where self-driving vehicles are.
Problem with that is we are already seeing trials of large self-driving Mac Trucks on highways in the USA, Canada and parts on Europe.
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runner3
Who pays when there's an accident?
Waah
No doubt, millions of people are making a living out of car driving, but if given a chance to own a self-driving one there will be a way out.
gogogo
Why would it? It will create entirely new industries and jobs
Mat
Obviously.
Just as cars put millions of horses out of work.
Just as email put thousands of telegraph operators out of work.
It's called progress.
englisc aspyrgend
Yes just like every technological advance, and also create new opportunities and jobs. Though I agree it is not clear how quickly it will happen and there are a number of regulatory problems that will need sorting out.
Toshihiro
Yes, but not anytime soon though. I can already imagine when they begin to introduce autonomous vehicles, we will see very stiff resistance from delivery and public transport workers. Just imagine when drones became commercially available, I could imagine helicopter and fixed wing aircraft pilots grumbling because the average person can already take aerial shots and do aerial surveys for cheap and on demand.
Sven Asai
No, they just won’t come neither at a great scale nor at average speeds that are needed or we are already used to in all our developed societies and economies. Those self-driving and really autonomous cars will only be established within a few limited and especially prepared areas and mostly at very low speeds.
kaimycahl
@runner3 Good question, that verifies why millions of people will be out of work, because the insurance company that rip off people will have to get rid of millions of employees and that is just one industry!
Who pays when there's an accident?
ThonTaddeo
People will be put out of jobs, but they're still a net benefit to society. Think of all the visually impaired people who will no longer be effectively banned from the millions of jobs that require cars just to get to them. Partially blind people, epileptics, even elderly who just don't have the reflexes... these people will finally have freedom of movement.
Mocheake
When the ATM came out, they said bank tellers would be out of jobs. No so fast. We have autopilots but there are still humans in the cockpit. There are robotic workers on assembly lines but people are still there, too. Self-driving cars may increase the need for new laws and regulations so maybe that industry and others would see more humans. Cyclical adjustment.
taito
That's the present situation because this technic is still in its infancy. I believe this will change rapidly within the next decade.
smithinjapan
With new tech there are always ways to create new jobs. Look at solar and other green energy tech; true, the few remaining coal mining jobs for those who refuse to learn knew skills are threatened, but MILLIONS of new jobs have been created for those who are just starting out and/or willing to innovate.
Speed
Yeah, you're right, but when I used to go to banks in the 70s before ATMs, there were usually eight to ten tellers servicing customers at my nearest bank. After ATMs, there were about three to four.
Factories have seen a HUGE decrease in the number of workers. A car factory would often have hundreds, if not thousands, of workers in a plant. Now a factory is predominantly precise machinery with only a few dozen people on the plant floor.
Yeah, there are still bank tellers and factory workers, but the millions who would've had these jobs as an option, no longer do.
If most delivery vehicles are going to be self-driving, millions will be out of a job.
ushosh123
The nature of the job will change into managing the machinery (soft and hardware), but yes likely less jobs in total.
Interesting question, ideally if fully auto with no possible intervention of the driver then the car company will as they have most control / prevention. But it's hard to imagine it happening in reality.
Khaos
Personally, I think one day it'll be virtually impossible to drive a car manually. But before that, probably automated cars will still need a driver as a backup or for some specific situations.
sf2k
Yes of course, how can it not? The Low hanging fruit is truck delivery. Why Do you think research in that is in the billions?
Disillusioned
This will be specific to location. Self driving cars will only be prevelent in cities.
gokai_wo_maneku
Technology has been putting people out of work for a couple of centuries now. Especially manufacturing, where everything is done by robots now.
John-San
No, because it will be eventually and slowly people will leave this part of service industry and entry other parts of the service industry.
Wellington
No, au contraire, it will create more jobs.
Jobs that don't even exist today.
Strangerland
Self driving cars are a paradigm shift, and will definitely result in a loss of job. And a gain in other jobs. Are people complaining about the lack of blacksmiths to get their horseshoes made? Nope. And yet, they use to be prevalent.
The world changes. So do employment opportunities. Trying to artificially prevent that is stifling progress.
Mr Kipling
Mochiake......
It wasn't the ATM that put bank tellers out of jobs, it was internet banking.
I remember in the UK when turning buses into single-man operation (Bus drivers were almost all male at that time) and got rid of conductors was supposed to be the end of the world.... how could anyone drive a bus AND hand out tickets?
Antiquesaving
Can you explain the "new industries and jobs"?
Let's see building new cars/trucks?
Nope if anything demand will drop and the present workforce will also be replaced by automation even more!
Maintenance of these new driverless vehicles?
Again nope because all the part like the present EV cars now are modular, just pull out replace and a robotic machine can do it.
This is what I just cannot figure out and when asked no one gives a complete answer just some vague "there will be new opportunities" deflection.
The reality is self driving cars will take jobs, EV cars will take jobs, automated, production lines will take jobs, and no this time there are not the new industries to replace those jobs.
ICE cars, other industrial revolution advances created maintenance and support jobs.
We are not seeing any of this now, computer diagnosis, modular repair done by machine, etc..
So production done by machine, driving by machine, maintenance by machine, repairs mostly by machine, etc... So again what new opportunities and jobs will their be and please someone be specific.
Antiquesaving
You underestimate certain groups.
If we have both self driving and humans driving and accidents happen, we are going to see the demand to stop people from driving, it will not be maybe it will be 100% guaranteed this is the future if we let it.
The argument will be " the unpredictable equation is human reaction human error" "self-driving cars all communicate between eachother avoiding xyz" so logically the solution is stop humans.
So if people are still driving in the non city areas, they will not be permitted into urban areas where self-driving vehicles are.
Problem with that is we are already seeing trials of large self-driving Mac Trucks on highways in the USA, Canada and parts on Europe.
Jordi Puentealto
Absolutely. Think about all the drivers on the road that make a living of it.