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Which side do you think will eventually win the dispute between the central government and the Okinawan government over the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station from Futenma to the

33 Comments

Which side do you think will eventually win the dispute between the central government and the Okinawan government over the planned relocation of the U.S. Marine Corps Air Station from Futenma to the Henoko area of Nago?

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@PaperCrane

That's how it's been for the last 70yrs like the Ryukuan/Okinawan people

Longer than that. But hey, if the Okinawans didn't want to be pushed around by a far away government, maybe they shouldn't have lost the war when Satsuma invaded in the 1600s? Or maybe they shouldn't have played along when the Japanese Empire annexed them formally in the late 1800s? I've said it before and I'll say it again: when you surrender your sovereignty you can expect to NEVER get it back....unless you are willing to shed blood for it. And so far the Okinawans aren't willing.

@Nathaw

However US military and Central government have never won and will never win the hearts and minds of Local people.

If the bases continue to function as intended, and their operations are not significantly impaired by riots/sabotage/bombings/etc.......what makes you think the "hearts and minds of the local people" matter even one iota to those in positions of power?

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Someday base has to move out... I have no doubt the US will leave eventually, but itll be many decades away yet.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Central government will use forceful implementation as Ancient Satsuma annexed Okinawa back in late 19th century. The answer for wining and losing has two categories. Physically Okinawa has never won for any decision making. Therefore puppet central government will go ahead for landfill and relocation project despite local protest and rejection.

However US military and Central government have never won and will never win the hearts and minds of Local people. Unlike Joint security area of Korean Peninsula, Okinawans have never welcomed US bases in their homeland. Battle of Okinawa was five years earlier than Korean War. Unlike grateful, apologetic and admiring South Koreans, they resent Yanks as intruders, criminals, rapists and oppressors for them.

Central government will receive hostile reaction, resentment and untrustworthiness from locals. Winning the hate is pretty easier than winning the love.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

For now Central govt but in future eventually Okinawan govt. Someday base has to move out...

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Both will win. The central government will make Okinawa a generous backroom offer. Just like the farmers were bought off for the TPP.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

The Base will be relocated, but both the J-Govt and the anti-base Okinawans will lose face and credibility.

The sole winners will be the pro-base relocation Okinawans.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

No one will win. Everyone will be disappointed whatever the outcome.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Depends what you mean by eventually... depends what you mean by win too actually....

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Now if they'd asked me which side I'd like to win...

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Okinawa but that the decision was made by the J-Govt. I believe that the main reason that the landfill at Henoko option was chosen is because it costs the most money and provides more work to large mainland Japanese companies who are big supporters of the LDP.

No it isnt about cost. All the Japanese government is choose the plan that the US Military itself had drawn up back in 1968.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

Former Gov. Nakaima said both in spoken word and written opinions that the Environmental Assessment made by the Japanese Govt. was flawed and not thorough enough and that is what he mostly based his opposition to signing the Landfill Agreement on. In Dec. of 2013 Gov. Nakaima went to Tokyo for meetings with the Central Govt., checked himself into a hospital and then after he got out he signed the Landfill Agreement. My hope is that the Courts will force the Central Govt. to provide specific details on why and how this Henoko location was chosen because former Ambassador Mondale said in a recent interview that the U.S. did not say that MCAS Futenma had to be re-located on Okinawa but that the decision was made by the J-Govt. I believe that the main reason that the landfill at Henoko option was chosen is because it costs the most money and provides more work to large mainland Japanese companies who are big supporters of the LDP.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

This is my on going recording,...like transfer them MCAS Futenms assigned fixed and rotor wing aircrafts on to Kadena Air Base like only down the highway heading 3 miles north like they have ample parking spaces like this I know for a fact;...yet for the USMC's WESTPAC EXPRESS FERRY,..well that can be accommodated whereas with major modification in accordance with harboring configuration for ferry vesels at the Kadena Air Base Marina;...eh this move will save big big $bucks$ and like this major move is better then best relocation but the USAF rejected this for political reasons by order of US Forces Japan;..looks like even the US Military is not trying to make sense?

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Smith: If Onaga commited any illegal action, don't you think the central government would have done everything in their power to fine him over the matter?

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Short of independence, it will be the central government. Although unfashionable, intimidation works just about every time. Let's face it, in a little covered episode certain LDP entities have started intimidating the newspapers on the island. Now all the government has to do is use carrots and sticks. There is actually an "Okinawan Development Agency" in the national government, but what do they actually do?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

That's how it's been for the last 70yrs like the Ryukuan/Okinawan people have been abused, misused, and once again accused;...the old school (governorship) were mostly yes yes puppet under the central government yet times has change like even the USA including the old school USMC Military think tank like in particular for Okinawa; so todays Governor Onaga who challenges the many issues of the USMC presence as the bottom line and I know he'll beat this relocation issue like just being honest whereas truthfully this will never pass go in the USA;...like EPA, OHSA, ACLU,..etc will make this do not pass go like eh Hawaii had almost the same issue and they buried the military intention.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

he was given the mandate because of his personal beliefs.

Maybe, but the fact that he got a mandate on those beliefs far overrides the fact that they are his personal beliefs. It's what he was voted in to do.

The mandate is the excuse to attempt to fulfill his own personal agenda.

Except that it's not just his own personal agenda, it's the agenda of the people who voted him in.

did he not just yesterday say he does not accept the injunction?

He doesn't have to accept it, but if he is going to fight it, he needs to find a legal maneuver in which to do so.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Gov. Onaga did not come to this conclusion of the legality on his own but was advised by a third-party panel and here is some of what their report contains;

The report concluded that legal flaws exist in the former governor’s approval of Henoko landfill because it did not meet the requirements of the Public Water Body Reclamation Act that calls for appropriate and rational use of national land. The report specifically said that (1) there was a lack of examination as to the necessity of the landfill, because the previous governor determined that the landfill in Henoko was necessary simply based on the need to relocate the Futenma base; (2) when the advantages and disadvantages of the landfill plan are weighed against each other, it is not found to be a rational plan; (3) environmental conservation measures are not sufficient and do not respond to the previous governor’s written statement of opinion; (4) the landfill authorization is likely to have violated the Okinawa Biodiversity Strategy drawn up by the Okinawa Prefectural Government.

According to officials, the report stated that the necessity of the landfill has not been definitively established, referring to former Defense Minister Satoshi Morimoto’s remarks that the base does not necessarily need to be placed in Okinawa from a military standpoint, but that Okinawa is the best place to maintain the base when political considerations are taken into account.

The report also pointed out that the Henoko landfill violates the Ryukyu Islands’ Coastal Protection Basic Plan enacted by the Okinawa Prefectural Government in 2003. The planned landfill area in Henoko includes an area of the coast in which it is designated that no type of structure should built.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

He has the right to rescind the permission,

He only has a "right" to rescind the permission if there was any abnormalities within the document.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Strangerland: "It's not a personal belief, it's a mandate from the people who voted him in. There is a huge difference."

There's a difference, but you've got it wrong; he was given the mandate because of his personal beliefs. The mandate is the excuse to attempt to fulfill his own personal agenda. He doesn't like what the government is doing -- sour grapes by your definition -- so he takes the 'If you don't do what I want, I'll just not recognize it'; same as he is doing with the injunction, which by your own admittance overtakes his actions. Or did he not just yesterday say he does not accept the injunction?

1 ( +5 / -4 )

He rescinded the permission given by Nakaima

But it wasn't an illegal move, just one that the central government didn't like. Illegal would mean there is a law against it. He has the right to rescind the permission, but the governments right to override him beat that out. It doesn't mean something illegal was done, it's all legal maneuvering.

Sorry, you may not like what he is doing, but what he is doing isn't illegal.

applaud a man taking unilateral actions based on personal beliefs

It's not a personal belief, it's a mandate from the people who voted him in. There is a huge difference.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Strangerland: "What has he done that is illegal?"

He rescinded the permission given by Nakaima, simply saying the decision was 'flawed' based on his personal opinions, whereas no flaws have actually been found to make the rescinding legal. But of course Onaga had no choice but to resort to illegalities based on personal beliefs because of the extreme pressure he is under to live up to his unrealistic promise of having no new bases built. The government pointed out how it was illegal, citing that Onaga could not point out any flaws that were concrete errors (ie. only his interpretation of what a flaw is), and hence the injunction passed. Now, surprise surprise, Onaga does not recognize the injunction.

Hence, you applaud illegalities, and also applaud a man taking unilateral actions based on personal beliefs. It's admirable that a person stands up for what they believe in, but it's not admirable to act on those beliefs in an illegal and/or harmful manner, as Onaga is doing.

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Easy answer whereas both the Diet and the Okinawan government will neither lose or win simply because the US will throw in the towel eventually whereas they can't wait any longer so they'll settle for removing Futenma MCAS from Okinawa;...yet it comes down to one foremost broken trust reason and that's all because of the USMC's WESTPAC EXPRESS FERRY?

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Who will win is different from who is right. Which is why most people are saying the central gov't will win.

8 ( +9 / -1 )

You applaud illegalities.

What has he done that is illegal?

1 ( +8 / -7 )

The Japanese central government and US military usually get their way, but this time there will be a high price to pay! I'm hoping for a miricle, but historically the odds are not in favor for the people of Okinawa.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Strangerland: "He's doing well so far, and I encourage him to keep taking every step he can to continue."

You applaud illegalities. Well done.

-1 ( +6 / -7 )

I think the central government will eventually bulldoze their way through and get it moved to Henoko. But they will also have to deal with the fallout from that, as it will make a significant portion of the Okinawan population particularly bitter.

I also applaud the governor for sticking to his campaign promises and doing everything he can to prevent it from happening, as this was the mandate he was given. He's doing well so far, and I encourage him to keep taking every step he can to continue.

-3 ( +6 / -9 )

Any suggestion that Okinawa will win is merely wishful thinking. You might be able to twist the meaning slightly to imply that Okinawa 'won' by holding off construction of the base for a while, or other concessions, but that's it. The base will be built.

2 ( +8 / -6 )

Independence?

That idea is so unpopular that it would be shot down before the media takes it up on the news.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

There really should only be one answer and it should be the central government. Kind of a given, needs of the central government outweigh the needs of the local populace. Sucks for the locals but that's how things are and I don't see them changing unless Okinawa becomes it's own country overnight. Even if that did happen, someone else would come in and claim the island anyways.

5 ( +9 / -4 )

Okinawa will prevail. Either the Abe regime will back down or the calls for independence will grow louder and louder until the regime again backs down or Okinawa becomes independent.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

Initially the central government, but the decision will in the long run backfire...

2 ( +4 / -2 )

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