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Within the next 10 years, do you see any possibility of Japan going to war with another country?

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I voted I don't know as I believe that the answer will more depend on China and the US than on anything Japan actually does.

4 ( +13 / -9 )

I don't see Japan going to war with any country within the coming decade, but I can see Japan building up its military might in response to the rising militarization of Asia, particularly in its maritime backyard. Imagine if all your neighbors started installing cameras and barb wires in their backyards, you'd also feel the urge to do so. In the very least, I am expecting Japan to increase its deterrence-oriented operations (FONOPs, unilateral and joint exercises, etc.) in its periphery with the US and allies in the coming years. I also do not see Japan being forced to use that preemptive decapitation strike against overseas targets.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

There is a truism for which a cursory query has found no original source but which, if one studies Human history, is undeniable: "Any Human identity group at any given time is either in a war or between wars'". If the U.S. contunues to decline at its current rate, it may be significantly less time before a goodly portion of Japanese People are sacrificed to its decay and death throes...

-4 ( +5 / -9 )

Not really, for good or for bad the importance and presence of Japan in the international stage seems to be diminishing with each year, unless China or Russia make a direct attack to the country I don't believe the Japanese government would let it be involved. This is of course unfortunate for the japanese allies like Taiwan.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

Depends... GOING to war, not really, unless it's joining other nations at war and calling it "defense" (or to show off a newly changed Article 9), but BEING at war... maybe. However, I see that only in the case of another world war or thereabouts.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

It can happen if Japan continues to blindly follow/obey the US. The US seems hell-bent on starting a war with Russia...

-6 ( +10 / -16 )

A bigger country(ies) will use Japan as a gullible pawn for their war against China and/or Russia.

2 ( +8 / -6 )

This is of course unfortunate for the japanese allies like Taiwan.

Is Taiwan a Japanese ally? That's new to me.

-8 ( +3 / -11 )

Really bad wording on the question. Will Japan "go to war" as in start a war or invade another country? NO.

But will Japan fight a war if attacked? YES. Will it fight a war to defend an ally? YES if it involves Japan geographically. Will Japan fight a war to "protect another country"? Maybe, it depends on many variables at the time.

8 ( +14 / -6 )

virusrexToday  03:42 pm JST

Not really, for good or for bad the importance and presence of Japan in the international stage seems to be diminishing with each year, unless China or Russia make a direct attack to the country I don't believe the Japanese government would let it be involved. This is of course unfortunate for the japanese allies like Taiwan.

Rather simplistic view. Japan already has collective defense with the U.S. And Japan already will provide the logistics needed for a US defense of Taiwan. If US forces come under attack, especially in combination with JSDF Japan will without doubt be drawn into the conflict.

From Japan't perspective a CCP controlled Taiwan smack on the energy route from the PG to Japan would be a strategic/security nightmare.

And what are you basing this "presence in the international stage" on? Military actions, which are prohibited apart from UN deplyments? Money spent, in which case Japan leads the pack, foolishly or otherwise. Do you see any economic or strategic international forums involving the West where Japan is not represented? And all this during Covid.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

I did vote "no". TBH, I don't know, especially in a world situation increasingly volatile as the one we can see now, but ultimately I would think "no" because:

.the oyajis running the show know that a war even if aggressed (i.e. Senkaku) is a non-seller to the public, even less in case of a a Japanese "first strike" which will always equal to "an aggression" from the Japanese side to the Japanese public. The oyajis may do an awful LOT of banzai-posturing, but before posturing and before anything else, they just want to keep their cushy seats in parliament and their (very lucrative) financial entitlements. I would expect them to swiftly consider "collaboration" over "conflict" to get the gravy train continue on schedule.

.the JSDF is defensive by nature, always has and (I believe) always will be

.in case of an aggression can the JSDF get quickly to the location (i.e. it will be Japanese territory), but in case of a conflict abroad not so much (just remember the Afghan evacuation), the JSDF is not even a "regional", it is a "local" force, the main reason being that, again, it is "defensive" in nature

But will Japan fight a war if attacked? YES.

Dubious claim. What are we talking about? The Senkakus? Yes, because the coast-guards are already pushing back Chinese fishing boats, no need for further escalation. The Russians snatching Hokkaido? Not likely to happen. The Chinese grabbing for Okinawa (which hosts the US forces). Not likely to happen either.

Anyway, even if the worse happens (Hokkaido, Honshu, Okinawa or else are being targeted), I doubt the population would like their country to be trashed like they can see Ukraine being trashed. Adding the Hiroshima and Nagasaki trauma, would the population push for quick and swift surrender over destruction or extermination.

Will it fight a war to defend an ally? YES if it involves Japan geographically. 

Dubious claim again. Are you talking about Taiwan? Not going to happen as Japan does not want to end up between a rock and a hard place (i.e. between China and the US), at least not a harder place than we already are in.

With Taiwan are the US keeping their "strategic ambiguity" (or whatsit). While ambiguous, may the Japanese far-right nutters do a lot of posturing but should conflict erupt or be too likely to be considered "an ambiguity" anymore, will they go back to try to mediate or wiggle their rear out of it as before. Again, the LDP is morally bankrupt, amoral and corrupt, but they are NOT completely crazy and do know where they interests do lie.

TBH, even if it comes to the worse (i.e. some conflict between the US and China), I would think Japan to try to avoid even the provision / support of logistics...No scrawny kid ever tried to intervene when two school bullies have a fight. Never.ever.

Will Japan fight a war to "protect another country"? Maybe, it depends on many variables at the time.

Again, dubious claim considering all of the above.

Again, everybody is entitled to his opinions on these topics, but saber-rattling alone does not make up for lack of realpolitik-based reasons.

And what are you basing this "presence in the international stage" on?

...

Do you see any economic or strategic international forums involving the West where Japan is not represented?

Well, Japan IS represented but doing what exactly? Just think at Kuroda being a non-entity during his last tour in May or April this year.

But the video that shows you how much of a non-entity Japan is becoming is this one. It's from the 2019 Osaka G20 Summit opening and its photo-session of all the world leaders. It took place in Japan (of course), Abe being the PM is the host of the event.

https://twitter.com/toubennbenn/status/1144611004862488577

Modi: allegedly big pal of Abe. Trump: brown-nosed by Abe for years at that point, Putin / Russia: met by Abe / Japan over 30 times about the Kuriles, arab leaders: brown-nosed by Abe, etc.

There was actually a second video from another angle, where in addition to be able to see better how good at "valet parking" Abe is, one can also see where Rutte (from the Netherlands) and incidentally the only guy shaking hands with Abe had some kind of a "oops, wrong guy"-moment when he actually looked at the face of the person he was shaking hands with (Abe). Comedy gold.

Spaffing tons of cash abroad may buy you votes at that moment in time, but it will not buy neither friendship not allies and most certainly no long-lasting ones. Japan IS increasingly alone in a world that is currently increasingly looking scary.

As such, Japan can not afford to pick up a fight with anybody, nor can it afford to get mixed up in somebody else's fight. Truth be told, in Asia alone is Japan not the only country in the same situation...

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

Russia?

0 ( +4 / -4 )

I very much doubt Japan would fight for any reason other than it being invaded. Japan hardly ever reciprocates in its international agreements.

-5 ( +4 / -9 )

no one going to attack Japan in near future for few good reasons.

so question is pointless.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Voted no more on the basis of Japan not initiating war but I agree with Aly Rustum et al above that it depends on the behaviour of some of Japans less reliable neighbours and their actions are much less predictable.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Things could change very fast, with China, North Korea, and Russia. It won't take 10 years.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Yes, its a very real possibility and those that think otherwise are living in the past. The world has changed drastically in just the last 15 years. Wake up and get prepared, not ignore it

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Japan doesn't have to worry about going to war with another country. It's just matter of time before China takes over Japan economically and infiltrates the Japanese government.

-6 ( +0 / -6 )

Yes, because there is always a possibility. I can say Japan will not start a war in the next ten years.

I can not say that war will not be thrust upon Japan in the next ten years. Thats the thing with situations beyond your ability to control, You cant stop them from happening. But you can do your best to prepare just in case.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Japan will not start a war in the next decade. However, it is likely Japan will become involved in a war in the next decade. Whether it is directly or indirectly remains to be seen.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I voted Yes. But qualify that by adding the Japan will not be the aggressor, or be declaring war, but will be responding in defense to attacks from an adversary.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The only way Japan is involved in a war is if its master, USA, drags it into another senseless war. China has no interest in starting a war, but will defend itself against an attack from USA, which is why USA is stirring up trouble and initiating yet ANOTHER proxy war, at the very least, or going the WMD route yet again. And please, Genghis Khan was Mongolian. And the only thing that beat him were typhoons.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

War is coming...time to prepare, let's all watch Starship Troopers reruns

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Who knows? 10 years is a long time, especially these days.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

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