Marcus Berret, a senior partner and auto industry expert at the German-based consulting company Roland Berger. He estimates that electric vehicles will account for 45 to 50 percent of the new vehicles sold globally by 2030.
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Japanese companies, which have been front-runners in gas-electric hybrid vehicles, need to quickly adapt to market changes toward electric vehicles.
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OnTheTrail
In 6 years time? I doubt it will be close to 50% EV for new sales, don't believe the demand or production capacity will be there by then.
nandakandamanda
He needs to say something obvious to keep his job.
Recent announcements by Toyota for example, advertising a switch to EV and hydrogen power for Europe suggest they have already figured this out a while back. Even so, hybrids do fill the switchover phase impressively.
Skeptical
A counterpoint. I read a market report, dated from early October. Who reported from their survey of consumers earlier in the year, that showed patterns of doubt over benefits, costs, charging options and performance of electric cars and trucks. A full 90% of customers polled wanted a brand that offered maximum drive time before requiring a recharge, while recharging options are still a challenge. While half expressed their concerns over high and ongoing electric vehicle repairs and annual maintenance, including high battery replacement costs. And many consider overcoming these concerns within the context of a considerable life-style change on their part.
grund
I think this will vary enormously. In Europe the charging infrastructure is pretty good so there is a big demand, in developing countries there is little to no chargin infrastructure so there is little to no demand. It all depends on how easy it is to charge your car where you live.
Sven Asai
Yes, especially in Germany they begin to feel lonely while stubbornly running on that misleading path. They should at least do anyone else a favor and stopping others luring into that trap.
kohakuebisu
Charging infrastructure probably makes this a non-starter.
Fast charging requires a huge amount of power, equivalent to several houses. For this to be available at every house and on the street for people who park on the street will take a large amount of effort and resources. Effort and resources that someone will have to pay for.
Given how long it took to give houses something simple like optic fiber in the UK, I do not expect this to happen soon.
Nadrew
Don’t really need fast charging for overnight.
I live in Takamatsu. I’d buy an electric Kei van if they got the drive distance up to 300km. But, for around town 200km is probably sufficient. Those are available soon.
https://electrek.co/2023/09/29/honda-unveils-10k-electric-n-van-e-130-mile-range-v2h/#:~:text=The%20new%20Honda%20N%2DVan,%2Dpowered%20Honda%20N%2DVan.
kohakuebisu
That's a great vehicle. Unfortunately most Western buyers will not buy something that small.
The switch to electric should be taken an opportunity to rethink what a car should be, but that's not going to happen. Rich folks will not allow it.
garypen
PHEV's make a lot of sense during this transition period. It's like a BEV around town, and a HEV on the expressways and for long distances in general.
Nadrew
PHEV would be okay if they had a little more battery range. Perhaps electric drive and a floating battery.
Skeptical
Perhaps Roland Berger couldn’t foresee events in their own backyard, this past week, when the German federal government announced the end of state subsidies for the purchase of electric cars. Much earlier than planned. The expiration of the subsidy program being "a direct consequence of the ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court and the resulting budget consolidation," according to a spokes for their ministry for economic affairs and energy. The results? Sales of purely battery-powered cars are likely to shrink for the first time in Germany in 2024 after almost a decade of steady growth. One German car expert predicted that as a result of the end of the subsidy, there will be 90,000 to 200,000 fewer vehicles.
garypen
They have enough range for around the town driving, chores, shopping, and whatnot. Anything more is what the ICE component is for. If one needs longer electric range, one gets a BEV.