Japan cannot make itself more secure just by increasing its defense spending. Enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities could appear threatening to others in the region, leading them to respond in kind and leaving no one better off than before.

...and leaving no one better off than before.

Wrong.

Many, many people will benefit substantially, the most notably being the military hardware industry which includes the thousands of civilian workers who build these guns, bombs, tanks, trucks, jets, uniforms, night-vision goggles, MREs, and the other million products in use, as well as the companies who transport this stuff, build the factories to make it all, produce the raw materials for everything, and do all the deskwork to make it happen from design and planning, to accounting, insurance, and legal management.

Sadly, such deals with the devil actually have a lot of hard working, regular people involved.

Enhancing Japan’s defense capabilities could appear threatening to others in the region,

You mean CCP China, North Korea, Russia? I hope so as that's what it is for

leading them to respond in kind 

Regardless Japan's spending, they always do don't they

Yes, that’s surely developing into a spiral of defense spending the country is forced into , something like a race. But I don’t understand how to take part in the race or ever having the chance of winning it, if not running at all and only standing and sleeping at the start line.

So the logic of the above statement is that more is worse therefore less is better? So Japan should just surrender to the CCP and everything will be OK?!?!

That's basically the gist of it, Paul. "Don't do anything while rivals ramp up offensive military spending, because if you respond, YOU're the one at fault!" Smh.

Nobody forced China to become so aggressive towards its neighbors, or to develop a "Lone Wolf" predatory, zero-sum view of cynical diplomacy. Nobody told China to lie to the world while weaponizing illegal man-made islands with offensive missiles. Nobody but China threatened the peaceful nation of Taiwan with war. Nobody forced North Korea to start developing nukes, or to start shooting missiles over the heads of innocent civilians.

Japan is simply returning to the real world, making its own decisions regarding defense as any other sovereign nation has a right to do. The "arms race" in Asia was started by one country only: the misnamed People's Republic of China.