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What happens if China invades Taiwan? If Japan got involved, its own sea lanes would be destroyed. Food imports from the U.S., Australia and the EU would stop. The whole of Japan would lose physical access to imports and it would lead to famine.

23 Comments

Kazuhito Yamashita, a former agriculture ministry official who is now research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies. Experts say that to ensure the country’s national security, it’s crucial for Japan to increase the amount of rice and wheat grown domestically, and that in terms of national security, food should come before weapons.

© Bloomberg

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This has to be the dumbest thing I've read on JT.

4 ( +9 / -5 )

This man has a positive outlook on life. Taking scaremongering to a new level.

“ former agriculture ministry official “ well, should have increased food security when you were in the ministry if you were / are so worried. Please don’t corner me at a social gathering, I can’t afford the therapy.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

His comments are idiotic, but there is some truth in what he is saying. Japan must really try some way to increase its food self sufficiency rate. For too long the LDP has cowtowed to JA and farmers allowing them to artificially keep the price of rice high by paying farmers not to grow rice. There are tons of fields sitting fallow around here and nothing being produced. All the while imported wheat and grain prices are skyrocketing.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

His predictions sound reasonable. Merchant ships avoid conflict zones and Japan imports 60% of its food. 18% comes directly from China, and around 25% passes through the South China sea. How do you replace these calories?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

“ What happens if China invades Taiwan? If Japan got involved, its own sea lanes would be destroyed. Food imports from the U.S., Australia and the EU would stop. The whole of Japan would lose physical access to imports and it would lead to famine. “

imho, I think he knows what he’s talking about;

..

scary s*** ..

-1 ( +3 / -4 )

@MarkX

For too long the LDP has cowtowed to JA and farmers allowing them to artificially keep the price of rice high by paying farmers not to grow rice.

The government stopped that in 2018.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Stats: "In 2020, China imported crude oil that totaled roughly US$176 billion. Almost half (47%) of these official imports came from Middle Eastern countries." The Strait of Malacca is a pinch point the US Navy could easily close; I've read that China can't go much longer than 3 months without fuel imports. And that's not to mention that its export markets would vanish overnight, many never to return at current levels.

The Chinese Navy would have a much more difficult time stopping Japanese imports from Australia and the US without widening the war into something it can't win.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

The long term detente between China and the mainland rightwing Chinese on Formosa (aka Taiwan) was stable and relatively benign until the U.S. started poking at it, facilitating the Taiwanese extremists among its rulers, and creating an ever more hostile situation and much greater threat of fatal hostilities overwhelming many in the Western Pacific. And famine would be the least of Japan's problems if hostilities erupt because, for China, Japan is not only a former abuser, it's also an American forward base and would be subject to intense attention from the Chinese military response to U.S. aggression. Also, if hostilities become open warfare, the entirety of Hokkaido could become "Russian territory" very quickly as China and Russia, with a common enemy, would almost certainly become allies. Those who think that America's military is in any state to conduct essentially a 'world war' have simply not been paying attention to the state of its military and difficulty recruiting this less naive generation of Americans, and a 'military draft' at this time in America could precipitate an uprising of young and old alike. American politicians responding to the demands of their employers, the 'Major Stockholders', are overplaying their hand because China doesn't 'bluff' and absolutely will not back down, but America, in its narcissistically aggressive foreign policy is too blind to see that as it has been for the last forty years of failed military and political campaigns and its impotent jealousy of China's continued success in its own foreign policy.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

Mr. Bjornson writing above raises some good points.

But "what if "...China's hold on it's people is entirely miltary based, a dictatorship.

Wouldnt various non CCP actors on China start using the war as an excuse to create anti CCP actions.

Taiwan's military capacity could knock out large scale agriculture and manufacturing regions on the close Chinese coast, leading to unrest and famine.

Why would practical Chinese leaders {non CCP } think any war would just be a giant waste of resources undermining China's wealth , position in the world and ongoing trade relations with half of the world, including most of Asia and India.

Finally, those predicting the "death of American power " are ignoring reality.

And saying "China doesnt bluff ".....lost border squirmish with Vietnam didnt they, and India a as well.

Chinese dragon is made from paper.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

I don’t agree and don’t expect much of that or not at a higher scale than a few ‘accidents’ or mislead missiles. The Chines wouldn’t risk that intentionally, systematically or completely, because then also their sea lines or the ports directly get under attack too one way or another. And we all know the numbers, they have quite some more mouths to feed there and the necessity to export their products for money without disturbances, don’t they?

2 ( +2 / -0 )

*Stats: "In 2020, China imported crude oil that totaled roughly US$176 billion. Almost half (47%) of these official imports came from Middle Eastern countries." The Strait of Malacca is a pinch point the US Navy could easily close;*

China is importing oil via Russia. They are building pipelines, but the straight of Malacca is the reason the US aren’t worried about China at all. They’ve got China easily under their thumbs.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Well, than perhaps Japan shouldnt get too involved in the China / Taiwan situation.

Best advice. If Japan gets involved Okinawa is fair game.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

was stable and relatively benign until the U.S. started poking at it, facilitating the Taiwanese extremists among its rulers, and creating an ever more hostile situation and much greater threat of fatal hostilities 

War will not happen. Only if Taiwan declares and no one in Taiwan wants to declare because it will mean war. Not even the ruling party. They don’t even bother with a referendum because they’re not going to declare regardless of the results.

The one thing some here don’t realize is that the CCP does not want war. They want to be rich and control countries though economic leverage.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Whether or not Japan wants to get involved or not, China will eventually attack or invade Japan, just a matter of time. The population in China is too nationalistic and militaristic to avoid war.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Whether theres a war or not its always good to be self-sufficient, especially when there are such high prices for food and some foods common and affordable worldwide are very rare or ridiculously expensive. Rich people can enjoy the best foods in Japan but common people should only eat butterless rice, tofu, seeweed or tamago, so sad.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The man is an idiot and has clearly little geopolitical understanding. The only excuse I can find for him is that he is blindly pushing a narrow agenda, but he can only undermine his own credibility by such claptrap.

Having said that, the current agricultural policy in Japan is clearly not serving the best interests of the Japanese people or the countries food security, but it is clearly buying a lot of very useful votes for the ruling coalition.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

> quercetumToday 04:55 pm JST

Well, than perhaps Japan shouldnt get too involved in the China / Taiwan situation.

> Best advice. If Japan gets involved Okinawa is fair game.

Maybe, but I think the reality is China has an old score to settle and the main thing standing in their way is the U.S. and its military. Japan got involved long ago on its own accord and was flexing and brutalizing China back in the 1930s up to the end of WWII. Now China is flexing its might. Old grudges don't die easily.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Having said that, the current agricultural policy in Japan is clearly not serving the best interests of the Japanese people or the countries food security, but it is clearly buying a lot of very useful votes for the ruling coalition.

Agree

0 ( +1 / -1 )

It’s not hard to see China isn’t the U.S. US takes action. China takes no action. It’s yin and yang. Yes, they conducted military exercises around the island, but they have taken no military action against Taiwan

China’s strategy is to wait it out. The USSR decided to be the enemy of China during the cold war and the USSR collapsed in 1991. Patience. Wait.

They waited out Trump and the trade war. No one in the US says the U.S. has won that war, and Trump is no longer President.

China will wait out the DPP and President Tsai. The previous administration in Taiwan was pro reunification - reunification because the two sides once decided to unify and were on the same side to fight against the Japanese. China can and will easily wait. They actually use patience as a weapon. It is in The Art of War.

On the other hand China takes non-military action using economic leverage. Cutting off or reducing coal imports from Australia is textbook China. No contracts with Boeing is also an example. The US Soybean farmers are another. The casualties of China’s action is the loss contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The casualties are measured by money not by bodies.

So the angle here is that as Taiwan continues to invest in China, China plans to use that leverage to control Taiwan one day.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Yes, that would be one heck of a bad hair day.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

I hope there will be no War. No one will come out of it undamaged...

Taiwan knows it will lose and so why not have a scorched earth policy to fire all its missiles at coastal cities...Shanghai, Hangzhou, Xiamen, etc.? Thousands of Mainland Chinese will perish.

Why not blow up the Taiwan huge semi-conductor plant so that the world loses?

Why not blow dams, bridges, tunnels, leaving China with a destroyed Taiwan?

Japan is not likely to get involved as it means a war with China and very bad outcomes for both Japan and China. Rather, wait for the War to be over and reap the benefits.

For China, the cost can be enormous...it will set China back for at least a decade.

Taiwan has not crossed the Red Line...declaring independence. So, China has no excuse to attack Taiwan. The posturing and noise can continue...no harm done.

For Taiwan it is to generate votes for its next election victory. It is all about politics of survival. Not many more US politicians will visit Taiwan. It is also to generate votes for the Nov elections.

My gut feel...No War.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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