East Asia chipmakers see high-tech decoupling with China inevitable

By Takaki Tominaga

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It's not just China, but decoupling with each other. Build what you need locally, and if you expand, take what you need and build it overseas too. Learn from the Military.

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Taiwan makes 65 percent of the world's semiconductors and almost 90 percent of the advanced chips.


That is a lot of eggs in a small basket.

If China went to war with Taiwan, it would bring chaos as supplies of semiconductors and advanced chips would stop.


Will China go to war ?

It would hurt them as much as, or more then, the rest of the world.

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Chip restrictions are one aspect of Brexit-for-all. But nationalist economics doesn't come cheap. Building a new cold war divide will be expensive. Sealing borders will push up inflation and interest rates. Companies will be starved of workers. Wages will rise, but not enough, so everyone will be poorer and spend less. Economies will grind down over the next decade. The proles will be unhappy. Don't hand out too much free money now. That debt capacity has to last a generation, and climate change events will cost more with each passing year. Mao-style workfare will be easier to implement in obedient Asian nations, so SK and JP will have it a bit easier than Europe.

There is a limit to how much you can blame on Ukraine before people stop believing you. It's a small country, and has not really been pivotal to the global food, energy and chip supply. Covid was a better stooge.

The real winners will be the US. Once they have cloned the Taiwanese chip industry, domestically, they won't need to defend Taiwan. Plus a Chinese invasion of Taiwan will seal the deal on the new Cold War divide. SK and JP will be safe enough, but they will lose some access to Chinese/Taiwanese/HK-facing trade, as they have lost some with Russia. The US will decide how much, so best get those orders in for F-35s and the like, to keep Uncle Sam sweet.

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If Xi were not hell bent on dominating the rest of the world, it would not be necessary to decouple from Chinese manufacturing.

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It is quite likely, that China will invade Taiwan by the year end.

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