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Time is everything: World braces for spread of new virus

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By CARLA K JOHNSON

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We're in media hype mode now.

The virus has been "spreading" in many countries for a month now but most countries are reporting like 10 cases per day.

During flu season, some schools get 10 cases per day.

Entire countries getting 10 cases is statistically incredibly small.

-9 ( +5 / -14 )

If this were to be a conspiracy, how utterly clever!

First, it solves the problem of over inflated, debt riddled economies by placing the blame of their fall squarely on the man made virus.

Second, it eliminates the weakest members of society who contribute the least or only take, ex. pensions, wealth fare, mental disorders, disabilities

Third, it celebrates decisive authoritarianism for complete government control over every facet of its citizenry. The world will use China as a role model.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

The U.S. National Institutes of Health's infectious disease chief, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said the world is “teetering very, very close” to a pandemic. He credits China's response for giving other nations some breathing room.

This statement is what is wrong with the world today. It's pretty much like giving credit to a person who aimed an automatic weapon into the air and emptied the magazine after they had been told many times to stop doing that. However, since that person decided to do a little first aid to treat the people hit by his falling bullets they are now rewarded for cleaning up the mess they created. Seems perfectly sane.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

> We're in media hype mode now.

The virus has been "spreading" in many countries for a month now but most countries are reporting like 10 cases per day.

During flu season, some schools get 10 cases per day.

Entire countries getting 10 cases is statistically incredibly small.

This comment nicely displays the posters lack of knowledge regarding this virus.

1 ( +9 / -8 )

Test fewer people and you’ll get fewer cases or if we just get them to stop the testing, maybe there won’t be new cases dws.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

TOKYO -- A senior member of the International Olympic Committee said Tuesday that if it proves too dangerous to hold the Olympics in Tokyo this summer because of the coronavirus outbreak, organizers are more likely to cancel it altogether than to postpone or move it.

> Dick Pound, a former Canadian swimming champion who has been on the IOC since 1978, making him its longest-serving member, estimated there is a three-month window -- perhaps a two-month one -- to decide the fate of the Tokyo Olympics, meaning a decision could be put off until late May.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/dick-pound-warns-tokyo-games-could-be-cancelled-due-to-virus-1.1395560

If Coronavirus continues to spread at the rate it is currently at (assume that China's numbers are fake) then it is looking very much like this will be the second time that Olympics in Tokyo will have been cancelled. Abe and company will have no say in this... this time.

Current stats show that the Coronavirus is 42 times more deadly than the common flu. The Coronavirus is currently at 3.37% mortality rate with 80,425 confirmed cases and 2,712 deaths.

To put those numbers into context, the USA's worst flu season happened a couple years ago and the rough numbers at the CDC claimed around 80,000 died as a result. If this Coronavirus spreads world wide and we only use those numbers from just the US population stats to project the death toll had it spread in the US like the seasonal flu, you'd looking at 3,360,000 dead assuming the CDC numbers of the death rate being around .08% which would mean that during that flu season just a little under a third of the US population at some point had the flu. One third fell ill. Those are the numbers. Just facts, no panic, no emotions, just the facts.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

We're in media hype mode now.*

The virus has been "spreading" in many countries for a month now but most countries are reporting like 10 cases per day.

During flu season, some schools get 10 cases per day.

Entire countries getting 10 cases is statistically incredibly small.

This comment nicely displays the posters lack of knowledge regarding this virus.

@Chip Star

Or maybe you don't. Have you been getting your facts from major news outlets only? Have you ever read scientific journals. Scientists also disagrees on the hype surrounding around this virus.

It is default to take precaution no matter what, but not just on this particular virus.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Correction: surrounding this virus*

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The Lancet's article on media hype https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30070-9

Micro-reporting on this issue everyday is only making matters worse than it is.

Many people obviously have jumped the bandwagon because of it.

We are all exposed to deadly viruses daily even before corona virus.

Did you know that there is a Rubella virus outbreak going on right now in Japan? Some people probably don't because we are too focused on Coronavirus only.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Can people do math... honestly.

In a country of 127 million, 100 cases a day equates to 1 in a million.

Forget the hype and look at the scientific facts.

One.... in... a ..... million !

Does anybody on this whole site even know anybody who has the virus? Or even know anybody that knows somebody who has the virus?

In reality (according to the data) the virus is already in fizzle mode, but the media is all panic panic panic.

-5 ( +2 / -7 )

100 cases a day equates to 1 in a million.

You don't get it do you? This is NOT a human virus like the flu, this is a novel, animal virus, and we don't know how to cure people infected with it. We have no vaccine against it, and in Japan, before the 'Basic Policy' announcement, was utterly unprepared for it. ONE, just One is cause for concerns, that is why 100 matters a lot.

If tge nu bers remains low, it because of cautionary measures taken, NOT because of Burning Bushes' have another beer measures. Honestly, do you want the authorities to not handle the ball altogether? Do you own stocks in pharma btw?

1 ( +2 / -1 )

You don't get it do you? This is NOT a human virus like the flu, this is a novel, animal virus, and we don't know how to cure people infected with it

Err... Vietnam cured all 23 of their cases with warm tea and a few days of rest.

A country of 70 million and only 23 people got infected.

That's 1 in 3,000,000 and the virus failed to spread and was cured easily.

Sorry, but so far, one month into it, your global pandemic just isn't materializing.

99.99% of Japanese people are still unaffected.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

All of these animal to human viruses, Sars, H4N1, and now COVID-19 have all come from China. If China keeps up their strange eating of animals that have no business being eaten, Bats, Civet Cats, etc....these viruses would never cross over to humans. Not China, bashing just stating facts.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

BurningBush,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Why do you think Japan has 50 serious/critical cases out of only 161 confirmed domestic infections, verses every other population (ie 6/977 in Korea; 35/691 from the Diamond Princess.)

Japan is only testing the very ill and their immediate families. The numbers being tested in Japan are miniscule.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

*The virus has been "spreading" in many countries for a month now but most countries are reporting *like 10 cases per day.

Here are some facts to go with your fantasy.

Italy:

Feb. 24: 229 cases (day still in progress)

Feb. 23: 157 cases

Feb. 22:   79 cases

Feb. 21:   21 cases

Feb. 20:   4 cases

South Korea

Feb. 23: 602 cases

Feb. 22: 436 cases

Feb. 21: 209 cases

Feb. 20: 111 cases

Feb. 19:  58 cases

Feb. 18:  31 cases

2 ( +4 / -2 )

The good news is, S. Korea's new cases appear to be leveling off. The government has taken some drastic measures and, as in China, that appears to be working.

Meanwhile the government of Japan is sitting on it's collective hands.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Taj:

As for the data you posted, are the numbers going up or down?

And if those numbers were from one town, I would be worried.

But from a country of millions... it's tiny.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

As for the data you posted, are the numbers going up or down?

BB, do you know up from down?

Feb. 24: 229 cases (day still in progress)

Feb. 23: 157 cases

Feb. 22:   79 cases

Feb. 21:   21 cases

Feb. 20:   4 cases

0 ( +3 / -3 )

First I am quite concerned about this virus. I am older and travel for business. I am taking defensive measures (i.e. extensive hand washing, avoiding crowds and when possible public transport, etc.). This is a very virulent virus.

On the other hand I have to thank Burning Bush for posting his (or her) posts also. While some may not agree this is based on math and available data (which may or may not be wrong).

I think it is important to look at both sides of the arguments.

I agree with the numbers Burning Bush is posting

but.. I am taking this a bit more seriously (i.e. I probably disagree with Burning Bush as to the risk).

In any event it is good to see data from both sides and also some balance.

Singapore has done a great job of controlling this, it will be interesting to see what plays out in South Korea (most cases are from the church members who were actually encourage to keep secret their affiliation).

As for me, although not 100% in agreement with Burning Bush the other perspective and some balance is much appreciated.

As for the Japanese government reactions I trust the approach the Singapore government has taken much more.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

....and then this article comes out......

https://japantoday.com/category/national/Japan-to-ban-entry-by-foreigners-who-have-visited-Daegu-after-virus-cases-there-exceed-1-000

Guess I need to alter my above statement about cases in Korea. Most probably came from the original cluster but this is quite an increase in cases....

2 ( +2 / -0 )

This comment nicely displays the posters lack of knowledge regarding this virus.

And this comment nicely displays the posters lack of knowledge regarding statistics and media hype!

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Taj, where are you pulling those numbers from? Because they're not correlating to anything I can find.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Oh noes!

We must panic and put the world into complete chaos because of a virus that in over 80 percent of the people affected cause none to mild respiratory symptoms!!!

Rational risk management? What is that? Less than 0.01% of the population might get mild to none symptoms here! We must stop working society and everyday life to contain this!

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

@Luis - while I partially agree with your post I still have one question;

Why has China gone to such extraordinary levels including the risk of partial or severe economic destruction combating this virus? I do not think the CCP would do this unless they thought this was a very high risk.

About a month ago there was information coming from China (not only the government figures). Now there is near silence.

As for me; I am going about my daily routine and work, not cancelling business trips, etc. but I am taking this situation quite seriously.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I do not think the CCP would do this unless they thought this was a very high risk.

Then clearly you are not very clear as how the CCP works.

They are willing to violate everyone's basic human rights and freedom just to protect the image of China.

They are way more worried about the bad press this is creating than anything else.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

@Luis - I am quite well aware how the CCP works. We all are aware of China's human rights violations including threatening the now deceased Doctor Li Wenliang with arrest for posting about this virus on social media on 27 December 2019. I fully agree with you they are very image conscious.

On the other hand one of the biggest risks identified to the stability and continuity of China's government is continued economic stability or growth. The actions they are taking are a severe threat to this.

Based on this I believe that China considers the risk of this virus to be very high, even extreme or they would not take such severe measures.

I have a friend who cannot even find a way to get to Shanghai from Changzhou (more than 600km from Wuhan and about 150km to Shanghai) to get a flight to leave the country. I believe the measures China are taking are very extreme due to the high perceived risk. I would also say (and agree with you) they are image conscious as well. This is well known.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Can people do math... honestly.

> In a country of 127 million, 100 cases a day equates to 1 in a million.

> Forget the hype and look at the scientific facts.

> One.... in... a ..... million !

> Does anybody on this whole site even know anybody who has the virus? Or even know anybody that knows somebody who has the virus?

> In reality (according to the data) the virus is already in fizzle mode, but the media is all panic panic panic.

"Can people do the math, honestly?

40 Infections in a country with 1.3 billion people, its less than one in a million.

No need to worry at all!"

Spoken by some idiot in China 6 weeks ago using the exact same stupid logic you are using. Now they've got 80,000 cases and 2700 dead and counting.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Based on this I believe that China considers the risk of this virus to be very high, even extreme or they would not take such severe measures.

This was going to take an economic hit either way, because irrational panic and fear is way more influential than good rational risk management.

Basically what they did is take the most extreme measures so than none can blame China for not doing what necessary, for whatever spread of the virus, or any chaos outside China.

The virus is well known, and I'm sure that international virology experts know better the risks than a highly corrupt, incompetent and fractured authoritarian political institution like the CCP.

But people love to think that governments of the world have super secret information so that their crazy conspiracy theories might survive.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

Belrick:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

1 ( +1 / -0 )

@Luis

I actually think China has done the right thing as far as doing their best to contain the virus within China. They unilaterally cancelled all outbound tour groups and locked down cities. For this China's response (although some may call it authoritarian in nature) is commendable. No once can blame China for this at all and China should be commended.

On the other hand the fact China tried to silence people is a fact, not a conspiracy theory.

But people love to think that governments of the world have super secret information so that their crazy conspiracy theories might survive.

Are you of the belief that governments (not only China but the U.S., Japan, etc.) are sharing all information they have? My experience from my work long long ago in the U.S. would have me say absolutely not. There is certainly information in China (and outside of China) we as average citizens do not know.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I actually think China has done the right thing as far as doing their best to contain the virus within China. They unilaterally cancelled all outbound tour groups and locked down cities. For this China's response (although some may call it authoritarian in nature) is commendable. No once can blame China for this at all and China should be commended.

For me, this is the most scary thing about this virus. How people see these obviously overblown responses as "commendable".

The virus has a mortality rate of about 2%, for people age 0~10 is 0%, for people aged 11~39 is about 0.2%, for people aged 40~49 is 0.4%.

Most people who have died from this are people immunodeficient, so yeah, it is good to try to protect these people and make use of rational risk management techniques to try to contain the virus so that it doesn't affect these vulnerable groups, but locking down cities, basically violating millions and millions of people's freedom of movement just for this is not a good response from a risk management stand point.

Everyone should blame China for, once again, violating the basic human rights of its citizens, but because people have caught the pandemic panic virus, their normal responses are inhibited.

Are you of the belief that governments (not only China but the U.S., Japan, etc.) are sharing all information they have? My experience from my work long long ago in the U.S. would have me say absolutely not. There is certainly information in China (and outside of China) we as average citizens do not know.

Never said anything as such. But it isn't like the virus is property of the government, or scientists only work for the government. Many scientists all around the world have studied this virus, and all reach the same conclusions.

This virus even thou it has the potential of creating a big pandemic, right now it is not that big of a deal, and it can be contained with common sense practices.

Obsessing over the exact number of people that are getting infected day by day, without the proper context of population density, total population, age of patients, etc, etc, specially by people who are not experts in this field, is not going to give you any useful information, and most reactions I've seen are just plain irrational panic.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

The stats so far from the coronavirus:

It's more contagious than the regular flu. Also, the virus could remain active on a surface for several more hours than the regular flu

The mortality rate for a regular flu is about 0.1% vs. the mortality rate for the coronavirus is about 2.3%

In addition from the coronavirus, about 15% suffer severe symptoms, while the rest (82%) suffer mild symptoms

Thus, compared to your regular flu, the coronavirus is a super-flu

BTW, the head of an Iranian government task force on the coronavirus got the flu ironically evident on live TV while he was speaking and downplaying it:

"Iran says official who played down coronavirus fears is infected"

https://www.rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iran/250220201

The head of Iran’s coronavirus task force revealed Tuesday he tested positive for the illness — just one day after insisting that reports of the outbreak in the country were overblown.

Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi announced on Twitter that he had come down with the virus after appearing sick at a Tehran press conference about the health threat.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-VuRK8L1kg

During an address carried live on TV, Iran's deputy health minister, Iraj Harirchi, is seen aggressively wiping sweat from his brow which turned out to be a fever caused by coronavirus COVID-19.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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