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© Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.Sunak likely to be next UK prime minister after Johnson pulls out of race
By SYLVIA HUI and JILL LAWLESS LONDON©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.
91 Comments
2020hindsights
fxgai
Not according to the markets. The markets reacted to the incompetent tax cuts, not the additional spending.
Desert Tortoise
Thomas Sowell conveniently ignores the fact that there was a depression from 1920-22 where unemployment grew from 4% to just under 12% and GD declined 17%. That is a huge GDP decline. Then President Harding also cut the Federal budget in half, which if one understands the Equation of National Income one understands that a large reduction in government spending during a depression accelerates the decline in GPD. Imagine cutting the Federal budget in half today. President Harding made a bad situation worse. Sowell cites a unique situation and does not tell the full story. He does not tell the whole story of that depression and its outcome, which indeed led the US right into the Great Depression due primarily not to lower tax rates but due to unrestrained lending by banks at a time when the Fed existed in name only and had no power to control the money supply. And obtw, the US was on a gold standard throughout this period but banks were lending willy nilly with no restraint and growing the money supply with these loans.
Equation of National Income: GDP = C + I + G + ( EX - IM ). In words, GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government spending and next exports. If GDP is declining, most likely due to declining C and I, cutting G only accelerates the decline in GDP. That is what President Harding did. It is natural that government revenue would rebound after such a depression, a fact that Mr. Sowell deliberately ignores.
Desert Tortoise
There is no econometric data anywhere in the world that backs the Laffer Curve. None whatsoever. The notion that lowering tax rates increases tax revenues has never happened in any nation at any time, including in nations with tax burdens, meaning tax revenue from all sources as a proportion of GDP in excess of 50% as one finds among a handful of Scandanavian nations. It is a story politicians like to tell and constituents are often more than willing to push the "I Believe" button but it is a politically expedient lie. My degrees are in Economics so I know of what I speak.
wallace
Rishi Sunak will be the next British prime minister.
JTC
The India Trade deal will come forth soon, though India will be the winner. More Indian's will be allowed into the UK under a special/preferential status, and further discontent between the existing Muslim communities within the UK and Indians will be on the rise going forward. The Rich will continue to Milk the Country dry, and then head off elsewhere, just like a plague of Locusts. The UK will fragment and end up as a 3rd World Country.... it's already heading there now with the idiot Eco-Terrorists - "Stop Oil Now", etc. Watch what influence Sunak's Wife now plays in British Politics both locally and Internationally....
JTC
Sunak is now, the next PM as all the other contenders have pulled out... :(
fxgai
A demonstrably false claim. You are welcome to your opinion but you can’t have your own facts.
The great Thomas Sowell documents counter examples in his short essay about “trickle down and tax cuts for the rich”, which you could easily Google up a pdf of, should you start to care about facts ever.
It’s basic finance, that debt is a function of revenues and spending - not just of revenues.
wallace
Johnson promised to restore the vote for ex-pats. Guess he didn't stay around long enough.
JTC
No longer able to vote in the UK as I no longer live there, so I guess I shouldn't really care about Politics anywhere, as I cant vote in any Country. So much for "Democracy".
itsonlyrocknroll
Simon in 2019 the picture was rosier than the here and now.
Of course the same could be said about the political environment. Brexit etc.
I would like to suggest it is not the voting system at fault, many feel are not part, or not want to be part of a society that has in many respects pasted them by.
The education system in the UK is broken.
Maybe the situation the country is facing will bring about change, a political fork in the road.
Sometimes you have to hit the bottom before finding a solution.
Simon Foston
Lord DartmouthToday 05:40 pm JST
Another one who's apparently on first-name terms with him.
Hardly. Boris Johnson won a big parliamentary majority in 2019. It would be an overwhelming mandate if his election victory had been the will of the electorate, but the Conservatives only got 43.6% of the popular vote.
Express sister
To put things into perspective, the previous shadow chancellor, John McDonnell, was (and is) a dyed in the wool socialist. But when he was in his role as a potential chancellor in waiting, he went around to banks, funds, etc., to tell them, "look, you may not like all of our plans, but this is what we're going to do, if we form a government". The City said, "yeah, we're not 100% on board with this, but thanks for telling us, because now we know what to expect". Kwarteng and Truss went full bananas without telling anyone what was happening, there was no plan on the government's part, and no ability for market actors to plan.
Lord Dartmouth
Those commenters saying the Tory Party voted for Truss because Sunak was Indian are your typical Guardian-reading types who can only see things in terms of race. The truth is that they preferred Truss because she promised tax cuts and because Sunak had betrayed Boris, who had won an overwhelming mandate in 2019. They couldn't forgive this disloyalty.
Express sister
The Laffer Curve isn't empirical evidence.
This hasn't been in dispute. But cutting taxes for the wealthy and for corporations always leads to lower revenues and higher debt. Just look at the last 40 years of neoliberalism.
I have never made a claim to be a "studied genius" in anything. I will accept your description, however, and add it to my resume.
The rise to 25% was already planned and priced in. The market was ready for it. Kwarteng's fart of a budget, which included not raising desperately needed taxes, saw sterling drop like a stone.
Again, this was all very recent. I'm taken aback that you don't recall it.
fxgai
expresssister,
The naïve intent may be so, but that certainly doesn’t mean that this is the actual result, as empirical evidence has shown on various occasions in the past. Again, revenues do not always go the same direction as tax rates, because taxes have consequences for economic behavior. As a studied genius in finance that you make yourself out to be, I should not need to tell you, but just to be sure…
No, Sunak was going to raise corporate tax rates to 25%, but the Kwarteng plan froze that.
wallace
charles chevaux
if non party members could vote in a political party leadership election what would be the purpose of being a member of the party.
None of the political parties publicly reveal the personal details of its members. So how would you check the tens of millions of registered voters who are not members of the party?
charles chevaux
@Express sister - Competition and cooperation can run simultaneously.
charles chevaux
The fraud would be taken care of by allowing only registered voters. The qualifying registered voters would simply be any voters already not registered under another party - and the law would require such membership be documented with voter registration.
In the US open vs closed primary is decided per party per state. Most are closed, I believe.
Generally speaking, parties rely heavily on idealist/fanatic members to do election hard work - they end up wielding a lot of influence - and that promotes a polarization of politics, a leaves a lot of people out of the loop.
Of course idealists/fanaticists are an important part of a dynamic democracy - but they would serve better by having to widen their appeal rather than just getting by being the least worst choice.
Express sister
I, too, prefer things when there is no opposition to the government.
itsonlyrocknroll
Former Treasury chief Rishi Sunak is best placed, qualified, with the necessary experience in office to face the economic challenges ahead, regardless of gender, race etc
Rachel Reeves labour shadow chancellor is more than capable too.
I would have liked to see both taking a leap of faith and working together, I think the country, when faced with a situation that will requires a more nuanced approach to finding a solution to what could turn out to be one of the most severest cost of living downturn in living memory.
wallace
charles chevaux
to avoid fraud, all voters must be registered members of the political party one month before an election of leadership.
What would be the better way to elect the PM?
charles chevaux
wallace - "Voting in the Labour Party is way more with 800,000 members."
A really democratic way to go about choosing a candidate in a primary would be to let every voter who is not registered to another party vote in the primary.
albaleo
Sunak has already been elected by his constituents. And as a poster above says, so have about 60 other MPs.
While there are certainly racist elements in the UK, I don't think it affects voting so much. Sunak is likely to be viewed in much the same way as many of his colleagues - a rich, privately educated posh-boy. A different kind of prejudice perhaps.
wallace
David Cameron gave the country the Brexit referendum. Gross error of judgement.
theResident
@Rodney: No one cares what you think. We have moved past that era a long time ago.
theResident
The Tories have been a disaster since David Cameron including taking the country out of the EU. So many promises but never delivered.
David Cameron campaigned to remain in the EU.
Express sister
In his defense, Cameron wanted the UK to stay in the EU. I would have quit if I were him, too.
If I said, "I think we should go to Disneyworld for vacation", and my wife said, "I think we should go to Gary, Indiana", and convinced our friends that we should go there, against my numerous factual objections, and won the vote, and said, "cool, I won, now you have to plan our trip to Gary", I'd say, "no, plan it yourself".
theResident
Sunak.
wallace
theResident
I disagree with your comment on Labour Party voting. The membership of the Conservative Party is about 160,000. In the Liz Truss election the turnout was 80%.
Voting in the Labour Party is way more with 800,000 members. BTW the Labour Party are not my party of choice and I have never voted for them once in my life. Not that I have a vote anymore. The unions no longer have a block vote.
I am not a left-winger.
The Tories have been a disaster since David Cameron including taking the country out of the EU. So many promises but never delivered.
In the Liz Truss election who did you vote for, Truss or Sunak?
Express sister
The pleasure is all mine, I'm sure.
theResident
@Express sister: Thank you for correcting me.
Express sister
Good thing Ed Miliband lost in 2015, though. Imagine the chaos! Good thing the UK has had nothing but stability in the intervening time. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm just going to take a big sip of coffee before I read a summary of British politics from 2015 to 2022...
Express sister
The British Labour party has a "one member, one vote" system for choosing its leader. The electoral college was abolished under Ed Miliband's leadership.
theResident
@wallace: Correct, their party, their rules. Infinitely more sensible than the mess that enabled Corbyn into the leadership in 2015, in fact, better than than the process that the Labour Party still employs, effectively ignoring the PLP and giving the block votes to the Unions. Labour would have won in 2015 without a shadow of a doubt had Ed Miliband not stabbed his brother in the back and done a deal with the Unions, costing you his brother who was one of the finest politicians to ever grace your party.
As a paid up Tory member, I am gracious enough to acknowledge that this a s**t show at present - But your party of choice has some fairly dubious history also. Lets not forget James Callaghan, unelected by the public, that led to the winter of discontent. Neil Kinnock being allowed to lose TWO general elections before being tossed - The disgrace of man that was Michael Foot, wanting to remove our nuclear deterrent at a time when the threat of WW3 was as high as it is again now.
So, yes - your time will come round at the next election, but like so many left wingers you need to look at the past to realise your mistakes also.
Sven Asai
I guess it’s more a strategic decision or let’s say risk minimizing, to take BJ out of the focus now and maybe to present him again for the general election. He surely might turn the current Labor preferences in the surveys into a win or bring smaller loss than now, if Sunak should fail too. And the same if now Sunak won’t fail and delivers a great job, then again the Tories can win or limit their losses by presenting either a successful Sunak or a reinforced BJ as candidate.
venze
Sunak likely to be next UK PM after Johnson pulls out(?)
Does it matter if an Asian British ( & not a white British) takes over #10?
It seems to have become a mental asylum, allowing only those with overtly crazy & overly greedy politician to put up for a short stay.
Elections coming(?)
Simon Foston
wallaceToday 01:09 pm JST
Facts may be wasted on someone who's formed his impressions of Britain on a couple of episodes of Downton Abbey he's watched.
Express sister
You "think"? OK. Cool story.
Spending money so that citizens don't freeze to death is good, in my opinion. I suppose you disagree. Not the best look, but it's the one you've chosen.
In the first place, "unfunded tax rate hikes" aren't mine. Secondly, tax rate rises are not, by definition, unfunded - they are for raising funds. Thirdly, there were no proposed raises in the rates. Keeping the 45p tax is not a raise when it already existed.
I know you don't understand finance, but now I'm wondering whether or not you understand cause and effect, or the nature of how time works. Of course, I may simply be falling for your latest comedic jape.
starpunk
Sunak is British. If he becomes PM he'll be like Obama, a first. A non-white head-of-state. I hope the UK will have more sense as a people and will have evolved enough to accept him. I'd hate to see him get the same racist conspiracy crap that Obama took as POTUS.
Britain is diverse largely because of its colonial/imperial era and the appeal of freedom but all these people there are Brits. Just like the racists, neo-Confederates, neo-Nazis, antisemites, etc. who rallied around the traitor Trump have no place in the diverse US democracy, the same goes for the UK. Times have changed and those National Front types and their attitudes aren't wanted or welcome there either.
wallace
There are more than 60 non-white MP's. 80% of the population is white. A higher number of non-white MP's than percent of the population.
Simon Foston
TokyoLiving
Today 09:49 am JST
He certainly couldn't be the prime minister of Japan. Not now, probably not ever.
Just because Japanese culture is stuck in the 1970s it doesn't mean other cultures haven't moved on. No one whose opinion matters cares in the least what his ethnic background was. I suppose that must be a hard concept to grasp for the average introverted Japanese person who thinks everyone else is just as much of a closet racist as they are.
wallace
There are many questionable aspects of Rishi Sunak.
First, his wife is non-British and holds some business connections in Russia.
Akshata Murthy has an estimated net worth of $1.2 billion, thanks to her shares in Infosys Ltd. Pays limited British taxes.
Infosys Limited is an Indian multinational information technology company that provides business consulting, information technology and outsourcing services. The company was founded in Pune and is headquartered in Bangalore.
The wealth of Rishi Sunak is estimated to be about £700 million. But he wasn't born iinto a rich family.
Rishi Sunak held an American Green Card when he was chancellor which required his filing annual U.S. tax returns.
Stuck the knife into Boris causing a leadership contest, in which he won the MP's vote but lost the membership vote. The Tory Party membership of 160,000 already voted aginst him.
Should previous contest losers be allowed to stand again? I suppose, their party, their rules.
itsonlyrocknroll
The full Jonson statement......
Boris Johnson’s full statement withdrawing from No 10 race
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/23/boris-johnsons-full-statement-withdrawing-from-no-10-race
I believe I am well placed to deliver a Conservative victory in 2024 – and tonight I can confirm that I have cleared the very high hurdle of 102 nominations, including a proposer and a seconder, and I could put my nomination in tomorrow.
There is a very good chance that I would be successful in the election with Conservative Party members – and that I could indeed be back in Downing Street on Friday.
But in the course of the last days I have sadly come to the conclusion that this would simply not be the right thing to do. You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.
These three paragraphs are untruthful, disingenuous.
I really don't believe Johnson is been sincere and straightforward about his motives.
Best for all concerned Johnson stood down.
fxgai
You know now that there was tens of billions of spending in the mini budget (I think Truss put them there, not Kwarteng) though right?
You know now that new spending is to be funded by borrowing tight? Your unfunded tax rate hikes won’t produce the revenues.
Express sister
Kwarteng suggested this and the sterling imploded. This was only a couple of weeks ago, I'm surprised you don't remember. Is this also part of your act?
fxgai
Express sister, no in reality the big government spending has been causing huge inflation worldwide and that is the cause of struggles for the poor and needy.
But the UK is going to experiment with unfunded tax hikes and higher unfunded spending…
Good like to our British chums.
Changes to tax structures could be a part of a pro-growth solution to help produce the goods (literally) that are needed to tame inflation. But some people see those changes as “tax cuts for the rich”. Too bad.
Good luck to our British chums, is all I can say to that.
Express sister
I think I finally understand - it's a bit. You're doing a joke. Otherwise it would seem that you're unabashedly saying that poor people should freeze to death because they cannot heat their homes while the wealthy get a tax break that will let them jet off to the Caribbean for Christmas. Which would, of course, be an absolutely monstrous thing to suggest. Which is why you're doing it in jest, and why you are trying to 'explain' your reasoning with a child's interpretation of finance. It's a good joke, but even the best joke gets stale when you repeat it too much. Maybe it's time for some fresh material.
fxgai
Kwarteng should run, come to think of it. Just keep the unfunded spending out of it this time, and things will go much better.
fxgai
So the guy that lost to Truss is going to be selected now, this is not a good look.
The article here again is wrong - the problem with the Truss economic plan was that 60 billion pounds of unfunded spending (debt) was included, not the tax changes.
If Sunak wants to tame inflation he’s going to have to slash spending down to size, but I gather he thinks it’s a better approach to hike taxes as the UK goes into recession.
Not inspired…
charles chevaux
Penny Mordaunt had half the backers of Boris and Boris couldn't make a solid 100. Most MP are remaining uncommitted so they can safely back the winner at the last minute. So Sunak it is.
Will the billionare whose fortune is based on his Cayman Islands hedge fund - and good global elite financial connects via his foreign wife - really be the one to breath life into and revive the UK's latent talent and productivity in industrial manufacturing, engineering, and science? That requires a complete redefinition of economic success from that which defines Sunak himself. We can only - hope.
Jimizo
Imagine working with the kind of people fixated on Sunak’s race. Like cats with a laser pointer.
Never employ these people.
GBR48
No Boris is a bullet dodged.
First piece of good news in years.
But not out of the woods yet. The 170,000 grassroots (ie. politically extreme) Tories who will choose the winner are the ones who chose Liz Truss last time. And yes, race will play a part. Sunak will have an uphill struggle.
Chabbawanga
Not a fan of the conservative party, but this is probably for the best. Sunak has a strong background in finance, and that is what the UK needs, not a frontman like Bojo.
Jimizo
People fixated on Sunak’s race are very small-minded.
TokyoLiving
Bye Boris, UK was saved from another pathetic circus chapter..
Interesting to see how the son of immigrants from India could be UK Prime Minister..
A blow to the decadent imperialist white culture of the UK..
I hope he wins..
N. Knight
Very funny.
wallace
Even Boris is wrong about Johnson.
G&T
Everyone is wrong about Boris. He alone would have saved Britain. He is the best politician since Margaret Thatcher.
Jimizo
@N. Knight
Spot on about Johnson taking the p##s regarding his taxpayer-funded job as an MP.
Deserves to be thrown out at the next election.
N. Knight
The Eton Mess can now stop lying and fly back to the Caribbean where he can lie on the beach and not do the parliamentary job he is elected to do.
N. Knight
One (or both) of two things has happened here.
Boris clearly did not have enough backers despite his lies saying that he did. If he did why did only 50 or 60 register themselves?
Second Sunak had a meeting with him on Saturday and maybe told him that he would destroy him if he ran (and won). Sunak likely knows where all the skeletons are hidden from Boris' chaotic premiership.
wallace
theResident
So is the 109 days since Johnson resigned. Three PMs in less than 120 days and two monarchs.
After conducting the poll Opinium used its MRP model which projects what it would mean for individual seats across the country. The firm predicts Labour would win 411 seats, Conservatives on 138, Lib Dems on 39 and the SNP on 37.
"One of the main causes of the Tory poll flop is that the mini-Budget is convincing voters that the party is on the side of the wealthy rather than working people."
Jimizo
You just described the UK as a ‘sinking ship’
I hope this government isn’t as negative and cynical as that.
Problems for Sunak if, or more likely when, he takes over. The Tories are notorious cannibals and the party is in chaos. He’ll have to get a grip of that very early.
theResident
@wallace- I agree that they will lose -but it won't be by a massive number. In fact, with the SNP so dominant in Scotland they may even end up cutting a deal with the Lib Dems. Two years is a LONG time in Politics.
wallace
The Tory Party is toxic and regardless of who is the leader, it will lose the next General Election by a massive number.
theResident
@Sanjinosebleed: 'Britain' isn't electing anybody at this point - That isn't due for another two years.
'Non-White'? Nice.
@Jimizo - Exactly.
u_s__reamer
Sunak or whoever makes no difference because, after more than a decade of austerity for the many, profits galore for the few and the consequent unravelling of the economy and the polarization of society, nobody can save the Tory party now except the gullible Brexiteers (fool 'em once, fool 'em twice...). In the end they'll all have to eat crow and humble pie and beg the EU to allow them to rejoin. Meanwhile, the UK hangs by a thread as Scotland makes other plans.
Fighto!
I tipped Rishi originally and then thought Johnson would come through, having more support of Tory members.
I doubt any pundit is calling it completely right.
No need to be negative and cynical all the time.
Stephen Chin
When Liz Truss was chosen prime minister I felt an ill omen had descended upon the United Kingdom. I was proved right. When Boris Johnson cut short his Carribean holiday and landed at Gatwick I again felt an ill omen had descended on the U.K. And I was proved right again. Now Boris Johnson has withdrawn to prove me right. The remaining claiment to number 10 is a woman ridiculously named Penny. I think she should change her name to Liz Mordaunt because, she will surely pass through the revolving door at No 10 as quickly as if not, more quickly than Liz Truss.
Rishi is from a rich Indian British cultural background educated in the best schools and universities in Britain and America. His good looking face has briliant eyes book-ended by smile lines and at forty two he has proved his political worth and wisdom as the government's chancellor. And it now looks pretty certain he will be given the chance to prove his political wisdom and worth as Britain's Prime Minister.
Jimizo
Not a great tip about Johnson winning.
Reminded me of when you described Trump and Pence as the envy of the world.
Sensible people won’t focus on his race. There are some who will but they are wastes of time.
Let’s see what he does.
Luddite
The Honking Pudding and his rabble lied about him having enough support until their bluff was called. That’s Johnson all over, has no compunction about lying, the pretends it never happened. The Conservatives would be finished if they chose Johnson again, the survival instinct kicked in.
Algernon LaCroix
So it seems the banksters will get their boy in after all.
Sanjinosebleed
Interesting to see if Britain is mature enough to elect a non white. Good luck Sunak!
Fighto!
For the best IMO. Time for a clean slate, a new face to try and get that sinking ship of a nation going again.
Good luck Rishi, you'll need it.
PTownsend
Nutshell!! Bingo!! Left out was play golf on the taxpayer's money while getting the taxpayers to help him keep his golf properties and hotels in the pink, so he can continue to lie about his wealth and not pay taxes.
Jimizo
That looks likely. Wouldn’t be the first time he’s made some Tory MPs look like complete idiots. Zahawi went from calling for his head to wanting him back a few months later to now calling for unity under His head must be spinning.
The inevitable joke about this being the first time Johnson has pulled out doing the rounds
The Avenger
So he was begging people for nominations, and then as soon as he claims to have hit the required number, he drops out? Sure, mate. Such obvious BS.
Good luck to Prime Minister Sunak, I guess.
wallace
Boris is always about Johnson and believes by the time of the next election in 2025 he will be the leader of the party.
itsonlyrocknroll
Boris Johnson was/is fully aware his populist agenda, was not remotely the antidote necessary to revitalize the economy or make the tough decisions.
So why did Johnson cut his holiday short in the first place?
Sure not his ego/vanity?
wallace
I don't agree with their Tory politics but I am not going to judge MPs by their color, sex, sexual orientation, age, or religion.
Equality Act 2010.
Protected characteristics
These are age, disability, gender reassignment, marriage and civil partnership, pregnancy and maternity, race, religion or belief, sex, and sexual orientation.
Ah_so
In keeping with the Conservatives, they are about to elect an Oxford educated rich guy. The only difference is that unlike Johnson and Cameron, he didn’t go to Eton, but Winchester is up there as well.
TokyoJoe
Perhaps they are not as small minded as you and judge people in other factors than their skin colour. For example Sunak being a billionaire and far removed from the average working class Brit. Oh and Sunak is British.
Ah_so
@Mr Kipling - I don’t think that Mordant will get the minimum backing of 100 MPs to go through to the ballot. It looks like Sinai will become PM by default.
Mr Kipling
It looks like Boris has done a deal with Sunak but if he hasn't advised his supporters in parliament to not put their names down for Penny Mordaunt and it becomes a two way choice for the 160,000 party members, it won't be certain. Last time they had a choice between an incompetent, middle class white woman and Sunak. They rejected Sunak. Mordaunt isn't incompetent, Sunak is still Indian.
wallace
Boris once again lied to the people about having enough backers.
obladi
Thank you Boris