Hit or miss? North Korea's Guam strike plan

Washington has already deployed a powerful anti-missile system, THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), in the Asia-Pacific region, including South Korea, Japan and Guam itself.

Is this correct? I was under the impression that Japan does not have THAAD, having opted for Aegis Ashore instead.

I think this picture shows the real victims in all of this madness. They have long suffered under the Kim regime. They have lived oppressed lives, in poverty, paranoia and fear, and if this all kicks off, they are the ones likely to suffer the worst of the consequences. I feel very, very sorry for them.

My only hope is if this truly does kick off, that the US uses surgical strikes to target the upper echelon of the regime, and do it swiftly and efficiently and then wait a bit and see what the reaction in North Korea is to the news. The big question then is: How loyal are the people really to the leader and his goons? Because pictures like the ones above mean nothing. They either dance in the streets or head across the Southern border, gun in hand at that point. Or civil war?

None of it is good. Yet another case of the corruption of absolute power at the expense of many. Yet another back mark in humanity's logbook. Why are we so dumb?

Always seems like those most willing to see the US in a war are those who least understand the reality of warfare.

It is time to stop showing NK's marching robot troops in the media. It is just a free device to terrorize the public. The Guam attack threat that is continually being reported EVERY HOUR on the USA cable news. The public gets it. Move on, media. The Guam threat, assuming it can be executed, may also be a lesson from WW II named Operation Fortitude. Fake the exact target to mislead the US military. It is like the American game where two people stand, legs apart, and each takes a turn to see how close to the other person's he/she can stick the knife. The Pacific is enormous, and Kim can always say that he was just shooting into the vast, empty ocean even if it is 300 miles from Guam.

noriyosan73Today  08:23 am JST The Guam threat, assuming it can be executed, may also be a lesson from WW II named Operation Fortitude. Fake the exact target to mislead the US military. 

It's nothing like Operation Fortitude as the U.S. would know the second a missile is launched and could track it from a number of terrestrial and orbital monitors and also choose to intercept it at any number of points. N. Korea's alleged ICBM are unlikely to be remotely guidable or even accurately targetable.

I seriously hope this doesn't escalate. By pushing the date into the future it gives China a chance to finally get off of their butts and contribute something meaningful.

The whole concept of ballistic missile defense (BMD) is a fallacy since the systems (AEGIS, THAAD, PAC-3 etc) have very little chance of hitting supersonic objects traveling at 4 miles per second.  Even in canned scenarios where origin, trajectory and speed are all known, BMD platforms almost always fail to hit their targets.  And that's not even factoring decoys into the equation which further increases failure rates.  The issue or hope of a failed attack lies not in the BMD capability, but the aggressors technology in accurately hitting its target.

If it flies over Japan, shoot it down.

Shoot everything that flies out NK actually.

The eastern world, it is explodin',

Violence flarin', bullets loadin',

You're old enough to kill but not for votin',

You don't believe in war, but what's that gun you're totin',

And even the Jordan river has bodies floatin',

But you tell me over and over and over again my friend,

Ah, you don't believe we're on the eve of destruction.

Don't you understand, what I'm trying to say?

And can't you feel the fears I'm feeling today?

If the button is pushed, there's no running away,

There'll be no one to save with the world in a grave,

Take a look around you, boy, it's bound to scare you, boy,

And you tell me over and over and over again my friend,

Ah, you don't believe we're on the eve of destruction.

@Superlib. I think China has tipped their hand. They have come out and said that if North Korea strikes first they should remain neutral, de-facto support for North Korea.

A world power has stated they should remain neutral in the event of a first strike nuclear attack. Almost unprecedented in world history, and shocking, even from China.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-china-media-idUSKBN1AR005

@CrazyJoe Yes, thank you. Right on the head.

But what would you expect China's response to be? A commitment to NK even if they strike first? Or a commitment to attack the US if we strike first? Their position is the only one to have at this point.

Always seems like those most willing to see the US in a war are those who least understand the reality of warfare.

I lot of liberals don't, especially the ones that never served.

Even in canned scenarios where origin, trajectory and speed are all known, BMD platforms almost always fail to hit their targets.

A very frightening wake up scenario. If Kim were to let loose at best estimates he has over 60 ICBM Pentagon reports and lets loose about 20 of them then the BMD and possibly AEGIS, THAAD, PAC-3 aren't really as reliable as once thought.

MSM fear mongering. That's all.

My thoughts are that: 1) North Korea is admitting that the accuracy of its missiles fall short as they must "bracket" the target area, 2) that, in the event of a nuclear attack against Guam, the North Koreans are planning not to hit the island itself, but to detonate a weapon close-in, let the fallout contaminate Guam and kill some of its people, 3) that large storms in the equatorial regions of the world are in-fact, an energy transfer system that move heat from that area, north or south. Add more energy, create more storms. How much is required to throw El Nino and such, off kilter?

SuperLibToday 09:34 am JSTBut what would you expect China's response to be? A commitment to NK even if they strike first? Or a commitment to attack the US if we strike first? Their position is the only one to have at this point.

I think many Americans including he POTUS actually believe that China shares our view that nobody should be attacking anyone else. Not so. China's support for NK is pretty much in the open and in terms of China's long term strategy of replacing the US as the regional hegemon, it is to their benefit if NK nukes the United States. China is hoping for the US to stand down in the face of NK, and thereby neutralize the US as any influence in the South China Sea.

"BEIJING (Reuters) - If North Korea launches an attack that threatens the United States then China should stay neutral, but if the United States attacks first and tries to overthrow North Korea's government China will stop then, a Chinese state-run newspaper said on Friday."

NK only mentioned distance. Then Trump began yelling Guam.

Then Trump yelled Japan and S Korea

@Superlib - I understand your thoughts but I would think they could at least say they would condemn (as a minimum) a nuclear first strike, especially considering the U.S. is by far their biggest trading partner (customer). Saying they would remain neutral is the wrong answer.

Always seems like those most willing to see the US in a war are those who least understand the reality of warfare.

And your comment on it

I lot of liberals don't, especially the ones that never served.

What's your point? Are you saying that because you served only you can understand the reality of war?

What about people who are injured, lose their families, people they love to war? Who lose everything?

Let's be frank here. You won't actually be anywhere remotely near here or Guam if and when the deadly conflict breaks out.

NK recently said it could hit within 40 KM of Guam. What would 100 MOAB do if they hit the water 40 KM from NK's shore. Surfs up? The internationally accepted distance that is under control of the country is 370.4 KM. Unfortunately, the waves go in all directions.

And your comment on it

That's why the Democrats aren't in power, they allowed these loons in Iran and NK as well as Russia get away with every single infraction, not to mention they had No fear of the last president, not even a bit of apprehension add to that, gutting the military that they don't even have sufficient parts to fix our aging military fleet. Yeah, the left didn't understand, that's why the military were extremely unhappy with the previous admin.

What's your point? Are you saying that because you served only you can understand the reality of war?

I didn't serve as a soldier, but I was in a war zone and I have family that previously and are currently serving going back to the revolutionary war, so I have heard all my life and seen the horrors of war, I do indeed understand the realities of war and there is never a good solution, sometimes it is necessary and sometimes it is not. Either way, threats from a person like Kim cannot be taken lightly, they should be taken very seriously.

What about people who are injured, lose their families, people they love to war? Who lose everything?

Happens in wars, ugly, tragic.

Let's be frank here. You won't actually be anywhere remotely near here or Guam if and when the deadly conflict breaks out.

Even if I were, I'd have the exact same views.

Say what you want about NK but their old school propaganda posters & billboards are pure class.

Maybe it's just me but I find military strategists, pollies and 'experts' from us/japan a tad too enthusiastic when talking about the possibility of a war with NK.

"THAAD might have a shot. But four targets at once would be fun,"

Is that a war video game review? feels like it.

Way too many clueless armchair pundits here. Has any of you actually lived in a war zone? Watched a friend, neighbor get blown to smithereens?

War should be the farthest thing from mind. If america failed to overcome the Taliban,a rag tag group, failed in Iraq, failed in Vietnam, how in blue springs is it supposed to succeed with disciplined well oiled nk army? That may or may not have nukes.

Lives are at stake here. Only dialogue will continue to prevail since anything other than peace treaty signing is moot. That's it!!

Is it prudent for the U.S. government to respond as though any missile fired in its direction by a nuclear power a potential threat?

The Russians, Chinese and the U.S. don't do this to one another for good reason.

Sanctions are still the way to go and Trump needs to shut up and let his experts negotiate a peaceful solution.

At the same time, the N. Koreans also have to be painfully careful from now on about firing any missiles in the direction of the U.S. The U.S. Constitution gives great power to the president in this regard and it would be malpractice for any sitting president to sit on his/her hands while a nuclear power, especially a hostile one, is firing potentially nuclear weapons at it.

Tone it down, go to the Chinese, negotiate and apply further sanctions. If possible, seal up N. Korea tighter than a drum and allow nothing in, other than food and medicine, or out.

I haven't checked the Japanese news yet but I can smell a lot of people cancelling their trips to Guam this obon vacation.

Sanctions are still the way to go and Trump needs to shut up and let his experts negotiate a peaceful solution.

Spot on. The problems with that are:

His supporters love it when he talks dirty to them.

Trump isn't capable of keeping his trash mouth shut anyway.

Perhaps Japan should hoist a Patriot or two to the top of Mt. Fuji. that'll add 3km to its operating range and have a lovely unobstructed view of the place.

Guam is a prime target because it is within range of many types of Korean missile, which is also a key US base in the Pacific. State of the North Korean leader threatens rocket attacks on Guam Island and warns of a full-scale war in response to President Donald Trump's tough statement. Guam has always been North Korea's top target due to its geographic location and strategic importance to the United States in Asia-Pacific, according to Popular Mechanics. Guam is also home to the Apra's strategic submarine base. American troops. Each of the four Los Angeles class nuclear submarines, each equipped with dozens of Tomahawk cruise missiles with a 3,100 km range, are stationed here. They may have suddenly launched a large-scale airstrike campaign to neutralize Korea's leadership and defense. In addition to submarines, the United States has deployed a number of naval task forces to Guam, ready to maneuver to their targets when ordered. Many surface and submarine ships also frequented Guam before reaching the Western Pacific.

With such an important geo-strategic location, the United States has deployed a (THAAD) Advanced Range Defensive System with 48 interceptor missiles and an AN / TPY-2 radar to Guam from April 2013. . This could protect Guam from the threat of MRBM and ICBM Korea, besides the THAAD system located in Korea.

Guam is both a "bait" and a spike in the eyes of the Koreans. However, Washington understands this and has taken many measures to protect the most important base in the Western Pacific, making Pyongyan difficult to destroy Guam easily, Kyle Mizokami said.

Sanctions are still the way to go and Trump needs to shut up and let his experts negotiate a peaceful solution.

A lot of good that has done since the 90's, from Clinton to Obama sanctions did squat, especially when China can easily go around them. Time for a new tactic.

Spot on. The problems with that are:

His supporters love it when he talks dirty to them. 

And his enemies are more cautious than ever.

The left being the capitalist group they are, like Susan Rice said, we should just live with them and accept a nuclear NK. The has and will always be a nut job of the highest caliber.

Trump isn't capable of keeping his trash mouth shut anyway.

Nor should he.

Maybe it's just me but I've always found the best way to handle a hornet's nest is to ignore a hornet's nest. By time winter comes it is abandoned and can be removed without risk.

His supporters love it when he talks dirty to them. 

And his enemies are more cautious than ever.

You mean like North Korea who've been on a missle-firing fest while Trump has been in power?

Tell us the "enemies" who "are more cautious than ever".

Putin?

TumbleDryToday  09:17 am JST

How about no? Providing they can actually hit the missile, the debris would fall into Japan. Let the Americans deal with it on their own soil.

Burning BushToday  02:00 pm JST

they are tickling Trump's nerves, that's exactly that. Militarily, Guam is a pointless target for NK

Within a short time DPRK went was having a few fission weapons to the ability to destroy the USA! This is nonsense that is being put out to scare people. Any use of any fission weapon by DPRK is an act of suicide. They may get one of two warheads through but millions of its subjects will perish in the US retaliation strike. All of those people in the picture and a lot more will die in any atomic conflict with the west.

Lots of possible war talk, myself got to the age where I can no longer be called up to serve on the front (rear/support still ok).

Having served on 3 fronts in peace keeping mission I always recall an old song. Lyrics below, highlights mine.

Lady in Black

Uriah Heep

Lyrics

She came to me one morning

One lonely Sunday morning

Her long hair flowing in the mid-winter wind

I know not how she found me

For in darkness I was walking

And destruction lay around me 

From a fight I could not win

Ah, ah, ah

She asked me name my foe then

I said the need within some men 

To fight and kill their brothers without thought of men or God

And I begged her give me horses 

To trample down my enemies

So eager was my passion to devour this waste of life

Ah, ah, ah

But she would not think of battle that 

Reduces men to animals

So easy to begin and yet impossible to end

For she the mother of all men 

Had counciled me so wisely that

I feared to walk alone again 

And asked if she would stay

Ah, ah, ah

Oh, lady, lend your hand, I cried

Oh, let me rest here at your side

Have faith and trust in me, she said and filled my heart with life

There is no strength in numbers

I've no such misconceptions

But when you need me be assured I won't be far away

Ah, ah, ah

Thus having spoke she turned away 

And though I found no words to say

I stood and watched until I saw her black cloak disappear

My labor is no easier 

But now I know I'm not alone

I find new heart each time I think upon that windy day

And if one day she comes to you 

Drink deeply from her words so wise

Take courage from her as your prize and say hello for me

Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah, ah

On the above map it shows where NK is and Guam, but it does not show a USA nuke sub in the area, arrrr, what a dumb ass I've been, you can't see it because its under the water!

With the possibility of up to four missiles flying toward Guam to include crossing Japan's territory, is this not the ACT that forces Trump to attack N. Korea?

You mean like North Korea who've been on a missle-firing fest while Trump has been in power? 

They've been doing that for years, they just started to ratchet it up, especially when Lil' Kim took over.

Tell us the "enemies" who "are more cautious than ever". 

Putin?

Every other country with Nukes

The news explained Defense plan ooooooof Somme. Countries Japan?? Use own shoot down system. USa?? Only Trump barking