The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.
© (c) Copyright Thomson Reuters 2018.May stands firm on her Brexit plan; says no to 2nd referendum
By William James and Kate Holton LONDON©2025 GPlusMedia Inc.
53 Comments
Aly Rustom
PM May, please reach out to Canada, OZ, and NZ. Form the FTA and open borders agreement CANZUK. Do that and you will find the EU much more willing to compromise. Canzuk can be an informal verbal agreement that can come into force the day the UK leaves. This will do much to stave off the fears about what's going to happen if the UK leaves with no deal.
http://www.canzukinternational.com/
itsonlyrocknroll
As matter of interest …....
The future relation between The United Kingdom and The European Union (White Paper)
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/725288/The_future_relationship_between_the_United_Kingdom_and_the_European_Union.pdf
Theresa May has little prospect of convincing her own parliamentary party. The facilitated customs arrangements are expensive and unworkable, pie in the sky belief that future advances in technology will be phased in like magic, utterly ludicrous. What happens on day one? Robby the robot holding a clip board?
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/637748/Future_customsarrangements-_a_future_partnership_paper.pdf
The question is not a 2nd referendum, it is when a general election will be calledm and who will led the conservative party
maybeperhapsyes
We had our vote. Not everyone was gonna be happy no matter which way it went. Just because it didn't go your way, you can start demanding another vote.
If there is one...then that will be the end of democrasy in the UK as we know it.
They goverment will then ahve a green light to change any outcome until it's in line with their policies.
Doesn't bare thinking about.
Aly Rustom
maybeperhapsyes
exactly! You hit the nail on the head.
itsonlyrocknroll
I could not envisage the UK belonging to an unaccountable federal Europe. For this reason alone, best leave.
Cochise
THose whining for a second vote should grow up. Unless you want to throw in with Tony Blair.
Wakarimasen
She may not have sorted out Brexit yet, but she sure can dance.
Jimizo
May looking like she could be regarded as the UK’s worst postwar PM.
That said, I’m not sure if any Tory leader could unite that shower of cannibals. Labour are spouting foggy gibberish on this and Corbyn is notoriously crap on detail.
Brexit required someone very competent and skilled and a superb party manager. We didn’t have that.
mu-da
Isn't this a contradiction? If they lied, and not all facts were on the table, then how can you claim it was fair?
Sneezy
Not sure how having a vote on something is a betrayal of democracy. It sounds like how democracy is meant to function.
maybeperhapsyes
@Sneezy
you are correct sir!
But having a second vote because you didn't like the outcome........
goldorak
All facts were on 'some' tables (like in all elections), ppl just chose not to listen &/or listened to the wrong -and often loudest- ppl. Ignorance won.
Although i do feel sorry for the many Brits who didnt want to leave the EU I reckon they should take it in the chin and move on/accept brexit. Same for the many highly educated euros, saffas, Irish etc who live in the UK & without whom Britain wouldn't be the -relatively- prosperous nation that it is today; deal with it or leave.
JTO
Mu-da,
Both sides lied and spread horse dung.
Project Fear and Project Promises which can't be filled - I've heard there's a repainted bus for sell.
So in that context, it's fair - Britain voted to leave, now get on with it.
Jimizo summed it up very nicely in his final sentence - competent people and not the current clowns steering the process.
theeastisred
The big lie was the assertion from the leave side that Britain would still be able to access the EU market with no significant changes, while no longer accepting freedom of movement. That was obviously never going to happen and is still never going to happen. The discussion has not moved on one inch from that opening stance by the UK government, immediately and consistently rejected by the EU. And that's before we get to the Irish border question, which nobody on the leave side had even bothered to think about. Unmitigated disaster from beginning to end, as most people now recognise.
Goodlucktoyou
She will leave a big mess for when Jeremy wins the next election.
Azzprin
48.5% leave
51.5% stay
Before the vote they shound have had something about if the vote was this close there should be another vote.
I think the vote should have been about the UK returning to the original "Free movement of goods and people." and undoing all of the other stuff since then.
We need the people as they are willing to do work others in the UK are too lazy to do.
Like picking strawberries and other fruit crops. Working in the NHS.
If we had the information back then as we have now, the vote may have been different.
Another europe goverment had a second vote on an europe thing.
The republic of Ireland first voted NO to using the euro. Then their goverment had a second vote that turned out Yes.
By the time of the second vote more information was aviable to the people.
Tangerine2000
@Azzprin
48.11% Remain
51.89% Leave
Before the vote they (Remain side) made it crystal clear that the result would be final (regardless of the margin of victory), and there would be no second referendum.
If you start saying "If the result is too close, we'll have another referendum", you'll end up having them endlessly.
Scrote
I don't understand why this should be the case. General elections are held at regular intervals and that isn't deemed "a gross betrayal of our democracy". Why can't referendums be held at regular intervals too? The population changes all the time, as does the general mood of the country.
itsonlyrocknroll
SPD’s Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025
‘Those who are against it will simply leave the EU,’ party chief tells conference.
https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/
Martin Schulz is not a lone voice......
Guy Verhofstadt: Europe's Last Chance: Why the European States Must Form a More Perfect Union
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9qkD6a2TOc
Not possibility in the political or economic interests for the UK......
Aly Rustom
It already half exists with the trans tasman travel agreement.
Incorrect.
CANZUK International’s proposals for free movement, trade and foreign policy cooperation between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom have been adopted as official federal party policy for the Conservative Party of Canada, following the party’s convention in Halifax.
http://www.canzukinternational.com/2018/08/canzuk-adopted.html
If the conservatives win it will be official policy.
Its a lot more than that.
In August 2017, Liberal Senator for Victoria, James Paterson, published an opinion-piece in the **Australian Financial Review declaring support for CANZUK free trade and free movement,**
In February 2017, Canadian Member of Parliament Erin O'Toole adopted CANZUK free trade and free movement as part of his campaign platform for leader of the Canadian Conservative Party.
In March 2017, the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada Andrew Scheer stated his support for a CANZUK free trade deal at a leadership debate in Vancouver, British Columbia.
On 18 May 2017, Canadian member of parliament Michael Chong declared support for post-Brexit free movement between the CANZUK countries, saying it was "a good idea to explore a new trade deal with Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, particularly in light of the Brexit vote".
The main opposition party of Canada, the Conservative Party, adopted CANZUK as official party policy at their 2018 party convention by 215 votes to 7.
In April 2018 Simon Bridges MP, Opposition leader in New Zealand, announced his support for CANZUK
In November 2014, then Mayor of London Boris Johnson expressed support for establishing "mobility zones" between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CANZUK
How you think this is just a website is hard to fathom.
Aly Rustom
Not at all. Very easy to fathom. The EU is banking on the fact that the UK has nowhere to turn to after brexit and they are playing hardball trying to force the UK to reconsider Brexit. They are banking on the fact that brexit will be so painful the UK will come grovelling back to the EU. But if the UK turns around and does a canzuk deal, all of a sudden, the rules change. The UK is no longer on its own. It has 3 siblings ready to support it after brexit and the UK will no longer need to come grovelling back to the EU. In that environment, the EU will be FAR LESS inclined to play hardball, especially if slapping around the UK means problems with the other 3 countries.
Aly Rustom
Bearing in mind the other 3 countries face similar situations.
Canada is facing lots of pressure from the US regarding Nafta. OZ and NZ have their own problems in Asia with China.
None of these bullies- US EU China would be able to push CANZUK around. It would be too strong.
Luddite
Worst PM ever. One of the worst governments ever. The Labour Party should be cleaning up, but no, they are too busy cultivating the cult of Jeremy. JC, the new Messiah. A rabid anti-semite was yesterday elected to Labour's national executive committee by over 70,000 Labour members. Disgusting, never vote for them again unless they sort themselves out. Gordon Brown gave a great speech at the weekend, I wish the grown ups would come back to politics.
Serrano
"But if the UK turns around and does a canzuk deal, all of a sudden, the rules change. The UK is no longer on its own. It has 3 siblings ready to support it after brexit and the UK will no longer need to come grovelling back to the EU."
There won't be any groveling back to the EU, the EU is going to fail anyway. And the UK is not on its own even without a CANZUK deal, it can make its own deals with other countries.
Aly Rustom
I am referring to politicians of these countries NOT the people who run the site.
Actually its not just one party. Take a look again at the website. Prominent politicians from ALL 4 countries have in fact supported it. It is the party platform on 1 party now that's true. But that doesn't mean that the other parties of the other countries are not talking about this and giving it serious thought. They are.
I agree 100%. But THAT state of affairs would not exist anymore with a CANZUK agreement.
Fine. Let Britain leave with nothing from the EU and let them turn to CANZUK. THEN, if the EU wants to continue doing trade with these 4 countries it will be 1 bloc talking to another bloc.
I doubt it. By then the EU will have federalized, and the UK wants nothing to do with that. But I agree that without CANZUK or the EU the UK is in a bad place. The UK is leaving the EU. No if ands or buts about that. So the next question is: now what? Canzuk is the logical answer.
Aly Rustom
No its not. Its going to federalize. Which is what it should have done in the first place. The EU is in the mess its in because it hasn't federalized. And if you want to know why the answer kindly provided for us by itsonlyrocknroll.
Guy Verhofstadt: Europe's Last Chance: Why the European States Must Form a More Perfect Union
An excellent piece only its an hour long...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9qkD6a2TOc
If its not in a bloc its on its own. We live in a world of various superpowers. Even South America is forming its own EU
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_South_American_Nations (Although granted its having its hiccups right now. )
The UK needs its bloc. It doesn't to be the cheese that stands alone.
Aly Rustom
Let me state my position clearly on this issue as a British Citizen:
I like the EU. I think its great. And even though I HATED Tony Blair for being Bush's poodle in the Iraq war, I supported him on 1 thing: The UK adopting the Euro. I was pro that. I was pro EU federalization and still am. I think that a United States of Europe is a great idea. I also was a remainer.
Now I am a realist. We (UK) have voted to leave. So we have to leave. That's democracy. The people voted. I was horrified at brexit. But when I heard about CANZUK I realized that not only is not all is lost but brexit could be a good thing.
Which brings me to the heart of my position:
IF Canzuk comes into being, then brexit will be the greatest day in recent british history. If canzuk doesn't happen, then brexit will be the biggest disaster in recent british history. Because I believe that while being in the EU is a good thing for the UK CANZUK is a BETTER deal. That's my personal opinion as a british citizen.
Aly Rustom
Sorry I forgot to answer these 2 questions
wipeout
Yes they do. Here is the link. They not only discuss it, they debate it and vote on it. the bottom link will take you to the video of their convention where you can watch the speeches, the debate, the dissention and the vote with the results.
http://www.canzukinternational.com/2018/08/canzuk-adopted.html
They have. Here by the link again provided for us by itsonlyrocknroll.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9qkD6a2TOc
Guy Verhofstadt who is the chief negotiator for the EU on the Brexit issue AND former PM of Belgium says it uniquivocally during the Q&A after his speech. You'll have to fastforward to the QA section
Aly Rustom
Well that's fair enough.
No offense taken
You're right. They are rather sedate and uneventful countries. But that is exactly why this union is so important. Every single country in the EU is rather sedate and uneventful without the EU. But as the EU, they are a force to be reconed with.
I'd have to disagree on that. That shows similarity and closeness of systems of government which would make the Canzuk Union smooth.
Again I disagree. Some people like the managing director James Skinner advocates free movement and FTA and that's it. Others on the website like Andrew Lilico are supporting eventual federalization of the Union. There is no one consensus on how canzuk should move forward.
ANY relation between these 4 countries is viewed as CANZUK in the same way that anythign to do with the US CANADA and MEXICO is viewed as NAFTA or TPP or whatever acronym you want to put in.
Which is already more than you have with NAFTA.
Every journey starts with a single step. Free mobility is a big step. After free mobility FTA becomes even more of a possiblily.
Remember this movement is just a couple of years old at best. Considering how young this movement is, its doing execptionally well. Look how long it took the EU to get where it is-
BBC as well as other outlets have interviewed CANZUK. Would you like me to point you to the link?
They don't have to refer to it as canzuk. But any deal between these 4 countries is a canzuk deal. where canzuk goes from here is up to them. CANZUK just means Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK. Hence, CANZUK. So any deal reached between these 4 countries is a canzuk deal- whether or not it is referred to by that name.
Aly Rustom
I apologize. I stand corrected.
Fair enough. Its a work in progress. You could email them and tell them that.
No. That's not what we are saying at all. What Canzuk is the idea of an FTA and free movement between these 4 countries. Whether or not it goes past that is another issue. Remember the EU was the same. It started out as the ECC and then morphed into the EU. And even today there are people arguing for more union and others arguing for less union. Just because a consensus hasn't been reached is no reason to discount CANZUK. You start with open borders and an FTA. Where canzuk goes from there can be left to referendums and national debates. That's what happens in healthy democracies- which all of these countries are.
Actually CANZUK is a term that has been coined by the UN. The Canzuk group didn't come up with that name. Again, there is nothing vague at all about CANZUK. I'd say its been more straightforward than Europe. The ECC was a completely different animal to the EU. Let me reiterate again, CANZUK is an FTA and an open borders agreement between these 4 countries. That's it. In a nutshell. NOW IF these 4 countries find that more union in the future would be a better thing, then they can expand on that. I, for one, would like to see a single currency and military between the 4. But then again, that's another topic.
Aly Rustom
I would appreciate you not resorting to cheap shots. I don't.
When it is discussed, debated and signed it will be. And remember- NAFTA may not even exist in the next year or two.
What makes you think they can with canzuk? Canzuk is the FTA and open borders between these 4. That's not up for negociation.
Because it is actually an agreement that is being discussed out in the open and not secretly like the other 2 were. I'd say that's a good thing not bad.
Pretty much most people who hear about it get on board. People like the idea. We don't have to drop or change anything. just getting the word out there is enough.
Aly Rustom
I already told you that the UN Came up with that term
canzuk is exactly the same thing. An acronym for a future deal.
No it isn’t. For some strange reason, you just want to badmouth it and you’re afraid of it, Hence trying to discredit it.
Like it or not it does exist. You can sit there and Try to give validity to NAFTA which is the deal that’s going to be gone within a year or two. Just makes you look silly.
Yes. Exactly. So when these four countries Decide that they want open borders in a free trade agreement between the four of them, Instead of saying there is a free trade agreement between Canada and Australia New Zealand and the UK we just refer to it as Canzuk. And that’s the way it’s going. You may not like it but that’s the reality. The UK is leaving the EU, and Canada and the United States have a very bad relationship. This is going to come into being very soon
So what? Now who’s doing the bait and switch?
More bait and switch. This has nothing to do with that. This has something to do with four countries deciding to open their borders to each other and have a free trade agreement. I don’t know why you can’t seem to understand that
Aly Rustom
Same as NAFTA. Bi deal
i use it to mean anything that concerns those 4 countries And only these 4 countries
And which is also about to become obsolete.
No that’s incorrect. Go back and read my post again. I told you what it means. It means a free trade agreement between these four countries and open borders. That’s what it means. Period. I can’t be any more clear than that. I hope you finally get it.
Yes that’s right. But so what?
No argument there.
First of all it’s only going to be these four countries. That’s what it means. That’s what the acronym stands for. These four countries. So I don’t know how you can even come up with a strange remark like we don’t know which countries are going to be in. It’s these four countries no more no less. Also if you look at the website all three countries are wanting closer ties with the UK. They all also wants freer access and mobility. And the UK doesn’t seem to mind that at all.
Actually the website is quite nice. And it is gaining support. And you may not like that but that is the truth. There you go just bad mouthing it for absolutely no reason. If you weren’t so against it you could just contact them and give them advice on how to improve it instead of just bad mouthing it. But you just seem to be against the idea for some strange reason. Whatever doesn’t matter.
So what if it’s not on their website? Didn’t you see the video? The party is there and they are adopting it on camera. This is a fact- it’s not up for debate.
What are you talking about? Half of the countries already have it to Australia and New Zealand have the trans Tasman travel agreement. it’s already in effect.
It’s not pie in the sky. By the way, that proposal is actually popular on both the left and the right of most of these countries. It’s very rare that you find something like that. A proposal that is bipartisan
No I mean when. It’s going to happen
They’ll do it.
The movement is bipartisan and it is ridiculous for you to assume that it is a racist proposal just because of the few white faces on the website. None of these countries are white countries anymore. They all have significant numbers of immigrants.
Aly Rustom
Canzuk is Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK. No more no less. THAT'S what Canzuk means. And the only reason they haven't started Canzuk negociations yet is because the UK is mired in negociations with the EU and Canada with the US regarding Nafta.
So you have been through the education system in one or more of these countries then? If not then please don't make baseless statements.
Then when it comes to criticizing them-don't.
Only just to whine and complain about it? If you don't have anything constructive to say, don't say anything.
You have a right to be wrong.
The free movement is half of Canzuk. The other half is a FTA. How many countries do you know that have complete freedom of movement without an FTA? This is how agreements are formed. Look at how the EU got started. The adoption of free movement is no small matter and to say that the party adopted canzuk as a policy is completely accurate.
not sure what being white has anything to do with it. Just more unconstructive criticism
New Zealand polled higher than any of the other countries with regards to canzuk. Not having someone on the advisory board from NZ doesn't mean anything. NZ will be there negociating when the time is right.
Tony Abbot is not conservative, and he has spoken out in favor. Plus the PMs of CAnada and New Zealand who are not conservative are in favor of closer union.
Canzuk, as I have said before,is not a conservative movement. You can slander it all you like, but that doesn't change the facts
Everyone is represented on that site. Any citizen of these 4 countries.
Aly Rustom
Look, Canzuk is going to happen. There are a few reasons for this:
Brexit- As you can see the EU is giving the UK a very hard time regarding brexit. Now whatever the reasons and as for who is to blame is irrelevant/ Whatever good relationship they had before has been eroded and the goodwill is gone. Even many remainers are miffed at the way the EU has treated the UK, so most likely a hard brexit is what is going to happen. Add to that the fact that the EU is going in the direction of federalization. The UK will never accept that.
Donald Trump- the man's aversion to NAFTA is no news. He has said he will either renegociate it or walk away from it. Trudeau has refused to renegociate it. That means that NAFTA is pretty much dead. Even if Trump is not reelected, as in the case of the UK the goodwill between the US and Canada is gone. Canada has long said that they need to diversify their economy and not depend soley on the US for everything, and Trump has reinforced that idea.So the question now stands: where do these 2 countries go and who do they turn to? UK without Europe and Canada without North America- the answer is each other. What other options do they have? Seriously?
And when you throw in the fact that OZ and NZ are both keen on closer relationships with the UK and that these 2 countries have their issues with Chinese beligerency, the answer becomes obvious. However, the main 2 reasons for CANZUK happening is brexit and the election of trump. If only one of these events had happened canzuk may not have been possible but like I said before: The UK and Canada desperately need new friends. That will push them closer together. Add the already existing trans tasman travel agreement and you have the template for Canzuk. It is not far fetched. It makes sense.
Aly Rustom
No. I never said it wasn't I am defining the nations that are canzuk. The canzuk proposal, as I have said for the unteenth time, is an FTA and open borders agreement between these 4 countries. Don't twist my words.
The same way EU political parties can be pro or anti EU. The EU doesn't extend open borders with other non EU countries. This is a no brainer.
It doesn't matter- the website is trying to show that there are members of parliament which support this proposal. That there are politicians who support it. What power they have at this stage is moot. What is important is getting the word out there.
Baseless speculation. Show me proof.
As long as its constructive criticism. But criticism for the sake of criticism is just trolling.
They took a poll. And guess what. The Kiwis loved the idea. So you can spin it all you want and say it was rigged by inquiring how they spun that but the reality is the proposal is popular EVERYWHERE.
You know nothing of the canzuk movement. Did you follow it on twitter? Facebook? MANY progressives are supporting it. Its not just the one site. Do more research on the movement before making incorrect statements.
And for the record, I am a liberal. I support canzuk, and so do all the people, white and non white, who are canzuk citizens who live in Japan. So you are completely wrong on that one.
They are getting broader based support. All the movement needs is just to be known. The proposal is extremely popular. Even in french canadian province Quebec. They polled over 60%. They don't need your approval.
Aly Rustom
If you are trying to say the liberals are not on board with this, then you are wrong.
Incorrect.
Political leaders from across the nations have also expressed support for a closer and more formal CANZUK alliance. UK Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson has advocated for a ‘free mobility labour zone’ and a free-trade agreement between the four nations, while Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, pledged at 10 Downing Street in London that he wished for negotiations over trade to “start the day after Brexit” and said that an agreement could also include visa arrangements between the nations. In Australia, Tony Abbott has advocated for freer movement between the countries while Malcolm Turnbull jumped at the prospect of Australia being one of the first nations to strike a free trade agreement with Britain.
https://www.spectator.com.au/2018/06/happy-birthday-brexit-cmon-canzuk/
So now Trudeau and Abbot are conservative???
It was conducted the way all polls are conducted. You are cherry picking which polls to believe based on what you want to belive and convey. The only reason you are knocking this poll is that it reflects canzuk popularity. had it reflected negative interest in the movement you would be singing its praises.
Do your history before making such ridiculous comments. Lets look at NAFTA. How did it get started?
Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement which then morphed into NAFTA. Look at the EU. First it was the ECC and the ECC did not have open borders between the members. Do your homework. Study history. That is how international deals are done. If you had done your homework, you would know that canzuk is on the right track.
That's how these deals start. I asked you before but you conveniently ignored my question so here it is again:
How many countries do you know that have open borders without an FTA? Go on tell me. Answer that question. Open borders means an FTA around the corner. This is fact. Countries don't open their borders without trade deals. Doesn't happen. I hope you finally understand that.
I won't dignify trolling with an answer, but I will say this: the ONLY people against this proposal are the Americans and the Europeans because the US wants to dominate Canada and the EU wants the UK in its sphere so they are the only ones criticizing this movement.
So which are you wipeout? Are you American or are you a EU citizen?
I'm pretty sure you are not a citizen of one of these 4 countries in which case your opinion and support (or lack of) for Canzuk is meaningless.
You don't have a say. You can knock it all you want but you don't have a vote in the matter. Only citizens from the 4 canzuk nations can choose whether or not to go through with this and we will- with or without US and EU support.
Aly Rustom
And Like I've already told you, if all you know about Canzuk is the one website, then you are not informed well enough to debate me on this topic.
No it doesn't- Canzuk is bipartisan- which is something you would have known if you had gone and done research beyond that one website, which you havent.
Why cover it up? I'm actually happy the conservatives are on board with this. This proves that this movement is bipartisan, and I am happy about it.
You seem unwilling to acknowledge that, and anxious to cover that up with a barrage of accusations about this movement being an only conservative movement and then quickly deny you were talking about the movement and only the advisory board when I point out that liberals also support it.
Please explain what qualifies YOU to label that poll as conducted badly and interpreted incorrectly? what criterion are you using and what experience do YOU have in polling to make such a baseless statement?
Go ahead and find me someone from these 4 countries who doesn't like it. Go on then. Have them post on here. I'd like to debate them and find out why. Go ahead and find me someone.
Doesn't matter where you are from. If you are not from one of the Canzuk countries, your opinion doesn't count. You have no vote nor say in the matter. it only becomes relevent if you hold a passport from one of the canzuk countries.
Tactfully? really. here's your last comment
No, that's not possible, and no one's stupid enough to believe you.
Not only have you not been tactful, you've been rude and insulting while in some of my previous posts to you I apologized respectfully. it is YOU sir, who doesn't know the meaning of tact.
Aly Rustom
Now rebuttal aside, let's refer back to the article and see what the international political climate is and why canzuk not only the best option but also maybe the ONLY option.
From the above article:
With under two months before Britain and the European Union want to agree a deal to end over 40 years of union, May is struggling to sell what she calls her business-friendly Brexit to her own party and across a divided country.
So the UK has under 2 months to come to an agreement. Brexit will happen in March, but that doesn't mean that they have until then to come to an agreement. They have less than 8 weeks.
Any agreement Britain is able to strike with EU will need approval from the British parliament - presenting a major headache for May who runs a minority government propped up by a deal with a small Northern Irish party and whose own Conservative party are deeply divided over Brexit.
May is unlikely to be able to rely on the support in parliament of the opposition Labour Party, which is also split over the best approach to Brexit.
So let's take stock. Britain is led by a minority gov which is divided on Brexit and the opposition is also divided on brexit as well. Its unlikely that ANY consensus will be reached by the UK gov, and EVEN IF there was a consensus, EXTREMELY unlikely for the EU to accept it. So where does that leave the UK?
In her article, May reiterated that Britain would be ready to leave the EU without a deal if the two sides cannot agree on the divorce terms.
The last sentence in the article states the most important point: May is ready and willing for a clean break if the UK is not happy with the EU terms. Judging from the above statements and the current political climate in the UK PLUS the fact that they have less than 2 months to come to an agreement, I'd say its very likely that the UK will leave without a deal.
If that happens, the UK will need to turn SOMEWHERE for new friends or risk isolation. Now there has been talk of the UK joining NAFTA- which I think is ridiculous for many reasons- and I'm willing to bet that its not going to happen. One reason is that I think it will be HUGELY unpopular in the UK and close to political suicide. The MAIN reason however, is that I'm willing to bet that NAFTA isn't going to be around much longer. Trump hates NAFTA alongside the TPP. He's said he wouldn't sign TPP and he didn't. The man is an oaf, but he does mean what he says. If he can't renegociate Nafta (and he can't since Trudeau is not going to let him) he'll kill it. And he'll do that even if he's not reelected. I'm sure he's not going to let Nafta keep going as it was a pillar of his campaign. Its fair to say that NAFTA is dead in the water.
Now I said this before and I will say it again: Very soon, we will have a Canada without a NAFTA and a UK without the EU. So what do those 2 countries do? Besides clinging to each other, where else can they go? if you look at it, they actually don't have any choice but to come together. They are going to need each other to soften the blows their respective economies will take when NAFTA collapses and a hard brexit occurs. They will gravitate towards each other, and given the interest that both OZ and NZ have for an FTA and easing of borders with the UK which politicans from both the OZ and NZ have clearly stated is something that they want
New Zealand
http://www.canzukinternational.com/2018/08/new-zealand-keen.html
Australia
http://www.canzukinternational.com/2018/07/australia-uk-ready-to-agree-on-free-trade-deal.html
it is highly unlikely that OZ and NZ, who already have free trade and movement between them, will sign an exclusive FTA and Free movement deal with the UK while Canada signs a different but similar FTA and Free Movement deal as well with the UK. It seems not only highly unlikely, but also stupid. Add to that the fact that the Canadian PM has expressed interest in CANZUK (see my previous post from yesterday for links) and it seems that CANZUK is the ONLY way forward for these 4 countries.
I can't see it going any other way.