S Korea reports biggest jump in coronavirus cases in more than 50 days

@n1k1 and Raw Beer

I want to believe herd immunity will happen at some point, either naturally, or by vaccine. I just don't believe the science is there yet to say with confidence it will happen. I'm not thinking about the supposed reinfections seen so far, I just don't think there is enough evidence yet to say it will work. So, I'm in the camp of erring on the side of caution until the science catches up and decisions can be made on more solid foundations.

There is enough evidence to make the assumption that herd immunity will work. The re-infection is likely a PCR test bug.

Indeed, when they checked those who retested positive, they found that they did not carry any viable viruses. The PCR test does not only detect viable viruses.

You seem very certain. To me that way of thinking is dangerous.

I try to have what I believe is a balanced view. Perhaps, as you claim, developing natural immunity can result in complications. Vaccines also have potential for very serious complications, and the odds are not all that low, and I suspect they are worse than developing natural immunity.

@albaleo

fine, "the only sensible solution" then

you could run around trace and swab noses all day long I just don't think it is very smart.

our species were only on the planet for a short time until they succumbed to a fatal disease.

believe or not everything WHO says suggest that YES that is exactly where we are right now !

FuzzyMay 28 10:53 pm JST

Your whole argument is based on the premise that infection leads to long-term immunity. Yet there is no evidence yet that this is the case with SARS-COV-2.

long-enough--term immunity is what I am hoping. long-enough for sars-cov2 to die out.

There is enough evidence to make the assumption that herd immunity will work. The re-infection is likely a PCR test bug. It is DNA based and not perfect. I could be wrong and even if so given there are no other changes I don't see why the immune system could not fight it off again. In fact that is how long-term vaccines actually work.

what do you mean guaranteed ? who makes this guarantees ? do you have any reference of a doctor or researcher in this area that can say anything with 100% certainty. it is very complicated nothing is guaranteed I am well aware of that, it is just what makes sense to me.

What else is there ? stay home for 2 years only to get vaccinated with something that might work ok.

I do however agree the virus will stay if we continue to lock ourselves down.

@Raw Beer

My bad, you are right, I posted the wrong link in my post. Correct link is the one you posted in response:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/

It is still 0.01 percent.

and they will confer a more rapid and stronger response to any future infection

This may result in fending off the infection and it may also result in the "harmful immune response" mentioned in the article I linked. Granted, that won't be the case for everyone, but the question is, for how many?

Again, your link does not say that

It does. Direct copy/paste.

My point was not to cherry pick parts of the article to support my narrative, my point was to cherry pick to refute yours. I posted the link so all could look for themselves. The article is all about possibilities (both good and bad), not certainties. You seem very certain. To me that way of thinking is dangerous.

The immune system of a recovered person will certainly be better prepared to handle a second infection,

That is not "certain", but it is possible.

Well, nothing is known with absolute certainty. But even if the antibody count will decrease with time, memory lymphocytes will remain for a long time and they will confer a more rapid and stronger response to any future infection. Unless, of course, the virus has mutated so much that none of the antibodies recognize any of the epitopes.

"peer-reviewed research on SARS-CoV and preprint studies on SARS-CoV-2 report that some nonneutralizing coronavirus antibodies might trigger a harmful immune response upon reinfection with those pathogens or cross infection with other coronaviruses."

That sounds very much like what Dr. Judy Mikovits was saying when describing the dangers of vaccines... Anyway, the link you provided only has the English abstract of a paper written in Chinese. It describes 3 autopsies and I can't figure out how someone can use it to come up with your quote.

"Even if the antibodies stick around in the body, however, it is not yet certain that they will prevent future infection." (From same article linked above)

Again, your link does not say that. But I did find that quote at the link below which also said the following:

But studies of SARS-CoV—the virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, which shares a considerable amount of its genetic material with SARS-CoV-2—are more promising. Antibody testing shows SARS-CoV immunity peaks at around four months and offers protection for roughly two to three years.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-immunity-to-covid-19-really-means/

@Raw Beer

The immune system of a recovered person will certainly be better prepared to handle a second infection,

That is not "certain", but it is possible.

"peer-reviewed research on SARS-CoV and preprint studies on SARS-CoV-2 report that some nonneutralizing coronavirus antibodies might trigger a harmful immune response upon reinfection with those pathogens or cross infection with other coronaviruses."

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32172546/

and will likely actually offer complete immunity to it. Not any worse than the vaccine that everyone is hoping for

That is not "likely", but again, it it possible.

"Even if the antibodies stick around in the body, however, it is not yet certain that they will prevent future infection." (From same article linked above)

I'm not calling for a "lockdown" until we have a vaccine/immunity. But people should understand that neither a vaccine nor herd immunity are guaranteed. Everyone needs to decide for themselves how they are going to act going forward. I'd just rather people make those decisions based on what is actually known about the virus rather than hopes or wishes. The truth is, currently we still know very little for sure. Including whether herd immunity is even possible with this virus.

This South Korean jump in coronavirus cases is concerning, but not unexpected. The tracking and testing to identify clusters of infections is necessary to determine preventive policy to eradicate future infections. 

The danger of a second/third wave, has always been a necessary evil, to bring some semblance of normality.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that we should not relax the lockdown until we have control on this freakin killer?

Unfortunately, it's not just you. But are you suggesting lockdowns should be maintained for years, until everyone is vaccinated?

Your whole argument is based on the premise that infection leads to long-term immunity.

The immune system of a recovered person will certainly be better prepared to handle a second infection, and will likely actually offer complete immunity to it. Not any worse than the vaccine that everyone is hoping for.

Let's not forget that vaccines are not without risks. Same with lockdowns, wrecking an economy will result in death.

@n1k1

The only defense against covid19 is to let the young and healthy build the immunity wall.

While the idea of building an immunity wall among the young should be seriously discussed, viewing it as "the only defense" when we're floundering in ignorance is not so helpful.

That is just not true. We have been on the planet lot longer then the vaccines.

Depends what you mean by "we". As a species, yes. But many of our species were only on the planet for a short time until they succumbed to a fatal disease. Those numbers have dropped, due partly to advances in medicine.

@n1k1

Your whole argument is based on the premise that infection leads to long-term immunity. Yet there is no evidence yet that this is the case with SARS-COV-2. If we're lucky that will turn out to be the case, but the fact is we don't know yet. Many coronaviruses result in antibodies that only last a few weeks, with people prone to reinfection within a year. The 'herd immunity' that many see as the end game is not guaranteed and it is unlikely to happen as quickly as you seem to think. Vaccine or not, herd immunity or not, this virus is going to be around for a long time yet.

True, but four states in the USA (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts) each have death rates more than twice as high as Sweden. Which is the more appropriate comparison? Sweden's rate is also lower than those of Belgium, UK, France, and Italy. Again, I'm not sure what that tells us exactly.

More significantly, Sweden has kept its economy running, much unlike to other lockdowned states above. Better review the effectiveness of lockdown if numbers are almost the same.

Swedish hospitals practice triage where very old patients and those with preexisting health problems are not the primary focus of emergency treatment. Its death toll could be lowered if they are to take care of all patients equally.

and its not selfish to restart a pandemic for your entire country by choosing to go to a nightclub and then refusing contact tracing due to what type of club it was? Just proves that while the concepts work, the execution will always be lacking at some point.

Usually when people decide they dont want the government knowing where they are, what they are doing, or who they are doing it with. you know, when people expect freedom.

Iso just go on outside and enjoy yourself. People who believe going out is their right need to delineate between freedom and being selfish. And if they can't do that, they're the one's who have no foresight on the possibility of death from COVID-19 till they get it, themselves. That is stupidity.

The Swedish strategy is failing. Very high death numbers and not more antibodies incidence (about 7.5% of the population) than other countries in Europe.

I will change the sentence from :

Fine ! NOT " Yes, just like Sweden ! ", Similar to Sweden with stricter quarantine enforcement for elderly homes

There are only a very few illnesses that the population could build an immunity wall naturally without a vaccine.

That is just not true. We have been on the planet lot longer then the vaccines. And other reasons too.

as a concept, not difficult. But when people dont want to be traced and dont agree to it, it becomes nearly impossible.

South Korea was held up as a model of how to respond to this virus due to the strength of their contact tracing and movement tracking programs. But once people didnt want to be traced due to where they were and what they were doing, it all fell apart.

It's rather ridiculous in saying tracing is difficult,

n1k1Today  03:43 pm JST

Neither lock-downs nor testing and tracing will work ! It is just stupid. The only defense against covid19 is to let the young and healthy build the immunity wall. Yes just like Sweden.

The Swedish strategy is failing. Very high death numbers and not more antibodies incidence (about 7.5% of the population) than other countries in Europe.

There are only a very few illnesses that the population could build an immunity wall naturally without a vaccine.

So what do we do when people dont want to be traced because of where they were or what they were doing or who they were doing it with? This will be a challenge moving forward.

I don't think tracing is actually the answer, it is ultimately limited. The responsibility is to each person to study, understand and be informed of the need to follow guidelines. Masks. Social distancing. etc.

There is a problem with people who refuse to follow science and why opening is still so dangerous. South Korea is more diligent than many countries, and if they have new numbers with an opening up, it'll likely be even worse in a place like the United States.

so people who dont want to be contact traced or movement tracked or have something of unknown origin and unclear purpose put into their body are stupid?

It's rather ridiculous in saying tracing is difficult, so just go on outside and enjoy yourself. People who believe going out is their right need to delineate between freedom and being selfish. And if they can't do that, they're the one's who have no foresight on the possibility of death from COVID-19 till they get it, themselves. That is stupidity.

Sweden has higher death per milion than the USA! 

True, but four states in the USA (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts) each have death rates more than twice as high as Sweden. Which is the more appropriate comparison? Sweden's rate is also lower than those of Belgium, UK, France, and Italy. Again, I'm not sure what that tells us exactly.

My numbers are based on these links:

https://www.statista.com/chart/21170/coronavirus-death-rate-worldwide/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

The only safe way to achieve herd immunity is by vaccination.

But how realistic is that? What are the downsides in terms of health if we wait for such a vaccine?

Even for meticulously careful South Korea, this is a realistic possibility with reopening the country

It's a warning that other countries should consider and prepare for - that a setback is a real possibility

Especially for places that are not as meticulous as South Korea

The only safe way to achieve herd immunity is by vaccination.

Yeah, right. The vaccine .. pfff .. that won't happen anytime soon and if the lockdowns, testing, tracing nonsense carries on I am sure we will have plenty of opportunities to discuss covid19 numbers in the next 2 years

The only defense against covid19 is to let the young and healthy build the immunity wall. Yes just like Sweden.

Yeah, right. In case you do not know Sweden has higher death per milion than the USA! The only safe way to achieve herd immunity is by vaccination.

It does not take a study to know this would happen. Is it just me, or does anyone else think that we should not relax the lockdown until we have control on this freakin killer?

South Korea hasn't done nationwide lockdown, except only temporarily in the city of Deagu when a big spike occurred there. If the current case is in-house and traceable, there is no need to shut down the entire city.

so people who dont want to be contact traced or movement tracked or have something of unknown origin and unclear purpose put into their body are stupid? 

No one is asking people to put bleach into their bodies, all that is asked for is to wear masks, maintain social distancing and not put other people at risk.

If they cannot do all of the above they are what I described them as!

My mates in Seoul get tested every time they go outside at neighborhood tents, imagine what the results would be Japan did the same? Who do Japanese officials think they are kidding? Is there no Serpico or Falcone here with balls to fight corruption?

so people who dont want to be contact traced or movement tracked or have something of unknown origin and unclear purpose put into their body are stupid?

hmmm.....ok its your opinion and you are entitled to it. Im sure at least some people think differently.

So guess we just all go back outside.

I suggest putting all such people on a cruise ship and send them out for a year.

Without the stupids the virus will be controlled much faster.

One ember in a field of dry grass is all it takes.

I just dont see how we get around the large number of people who dont want their movement tracked or their contacts traced and who dont have any interest in having any unknown vaccine put in their body.

So guess we just all go back outside.

Neither lock-downs nor testing and tracing will work ! It is just stupid. The only defense against covid19 is to let the young and healthy build the immunity wall. Yes just like Sweden.

S.Korea has done a good job at testing and contact tracing.

However companies and people need to be responsible, masks are required, temperature checks are required and there can be no let up on testing.

What some people in power in the US are doing is stupid and irresponsible , let that not set an example to anyone.

I dont mean this to sound inappropriate and I could be wrong.

But the contact and tracing seemed to be working really well until the incident where a lot of people went to one place and a cluster started. These people who were there had reasons for not wanting to be traced or have their contacts examined, so it appeared to get out of control as a result of lack of cooperation from people. Which is understandable as they felt their location and actions should be private.

So what do we do when people dont want to be traced because of where they were or what they were doing or who they were doing it with? This will be a challenge moving forward.

Hundreds of other infections have been linked to nightclubs and other entertainment venues, which saw huge crowds in early May after officials relaxed social distancing guidelines.

It does not take a study to know this would happen. Is it just me, or does anyone else think that we should not relax the lockdown until we have control on this freakin killer?

OssanAmerica: Rare agreement, my friend. SK had the best tracing system and now they are going to have a lot of trouble since the tracing is becoming impossible, and this should serve as a reminder to others (especially since there has a lack of tracing) that it can come back when people are put back into "normal" situations.

This sentence in the article is interesting:

"may have had employees working while they were sick."

Currently, in my company every morning before we come in, our fever is measured. If it is higher than 37,5 degrees, we have to go home.

Goes to show just how nasty this COVID19 is, you think you have it under control, everyone goes out, then it comes back. Hope the entire world is watching carefully.

Our freedoms eroding for the health of our fellow citizens.