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Brexit minister: Some EU migrants may have to leave UK

24 Comments

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24 Comments
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What if a "surge in arrivals" doesn't make up for the number of British fleeing?

0 ( +8 / -8 )

Precisely. And if only useful Johnny Foreigners are allowed to stay, the more mobile (prosperous) might just choose to live somewhere less chauvin.

Doesn't augur well for the (already struggling to find qualified staff) restaurant trade. Is there to be a national return to Toad in the Hole and Spotted Dick?

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

This is an expect-able and acceptable move on the part of any country.

As with any family home, or even a hotel, the family may be required by agreement or contract to have a home-stay or a hotel to have guests, but once that agreement or contract is over, that family or hotel has the prerogative and the right to ask others to leave. Those who stayed has the right to stay only within that contract or agreement and no more.

0 ( +7 / -7 )

Presumably the same will be done to Brits in the EU if full single market access isn't agreed.

But realistically, this is just a cynical use of people as bargaining chips. Because EU migrants are net contributors to the economy, I suspect the UK will actually try to get as many as possible before the borders close (despite the populist rhetoric). The Brexit economy will need as much cheap labour as it can get if they want to start competing will China and India.

From a technical perspective, it will also be interesting to see whether the EU will take the view that any announcement of future plans to discriminate against EU citizens (while still being a full member) is actually a technical violation of the EU treaties, which the UK is still obliged to follow until the day they leave. Of course, there's not much the EU could do to stop it other than naming and shaming (if the UK has any shame left by then).

4 ( +9 / -5 )

This is perfectly consistent. Reciprocity in all things. It is an important change in UK development. It's the same reason Brexit won; had there been internal reciprocity it wouldn't have won

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Ok, time for the chinese to move in...

3 ( +3 / -0 )

if full single market access isn't agreed.

The UK does not even ask it.

if there is a surge in arrivals before the deadline

That would be in case of war or big disaster. The expats are going pack their luggage and go follow their jobs. For services, the question is Dublin or Lisboa ? Automative industry is probably going to the East, like Rumania but Spain could benefit.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

"Because EU migrants are net contributors to the economy...."

"Contributors"? Yeah, right. Living standards and median British incomes have been in decline since the influx from enlargement. Further, govt services have been cut since then, whereas before 2004 they were expanding.

The studies that find "contributions" are most often done by business or academic groups or banks that have clear vested interests. and they cherry pick the parameters. The socio-economic reality for a majority of working people is starkly different.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

The UK does not even ask it. [single-market access]

At the moment, they seem to be not merely asking it, but assuming it.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

What is interesting is the constant predictions of doom when it is likely to be the opposite for the UK . The reason is the issue wa,, the political union it is both unnecessary and tyranical. What will happen is the CEOs of Volkswagen, airbus , BMW and etc will remind the EU parasite politicians the UK is one of the 3 economies driving the region and those companies want the money . Additionally, London has been one of the prime world financial centers for centuries and this won't change. London will continue to be the gateway through which the EU access the world. The EU is th,, area which will suffer without the UK which is why they will reach deals which will be to the advantage of the UK .

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

So when Brits living all around Europe are expelled, I guess there'll be a lot of whining? Great going, limeys.

-8 ( +5 / -13 )

There is a whole range of opinions touted from the media and the political chattering classes as to the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK, likewise UK citizens resident EU member states whilst the process of negotiation proceeds in the event of the UK invoking article 50.

Brexit Secretary David Davis can huff and puff until he is blue in the face. However as night follows day Great Britain is bound by and must adhere to the Lisbon Treaty.

On the one hand, Theresa May has appointed David Davis as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, a man that has the political finesse of a hooligan swinging a baseball band. Then on the other hand throws him into the political equivalent of quicksand by handing Scotland's First minster Nicola Sturgeon what amounts to a veto to block Britain's exit from the European Union or at least the means to string out any possibility of invoking article 50 until 2017.

Could-EU-citizens-living-in-the-UK-claim-acquired-rights-if-there-is-a-full-Brexit....

Immigration analysis: In the event of a Brexit, what are the rights of EU citizens resident in the UK? Tim Eicke QC, barrister at Essex Court Chambers.....

The provisions of the EU treaties (and the secondary legislation adopted thereunder, such as Directive 2004/58/EC (the Citizens Directive)) do not cease to apply immediately (whether as of the date of the announcement of the result of the referendum or the date of the mandatory notification by the UK of its intention to withdraw)

The relevant EU law only ceases to apply once the withdrawal agreement enters into force or, absent that, two years after the UK has notified the EU of its intention to withdraw (even though this deadline can be extended by unanimous agreement between the UK and all the Member States of the EU)

http://101r4q2bpyqyt92eg41tusmj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Could-EU-citizens-living-in-the-UK-claim-acquired-rights-if-there-is-a-full-Brexit.pdf

My humble opinion is that the UK will remain a member of the EU in one form or another. Compromise, fudge call in what you like will prevail.

After all the media has starting to pick up on the economic/political ramifications, consequences from the aftermath of Italy's feckless neglect to deal with its shambles of a banking system.....

Why Italy's banking crisis will shake the eurozone to its core......

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/07/16/why-italys-banking-crisis-will-shake-the-eurozone-to-its-core/

3 ( +3 / -0 )

EU migrants are not really the problem. The UK expelling migrants from Islamic countries would be a much better idea.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

Should the Italy's banks crash will the UK be asked to help bail them out like thay have had to do with other euro using countries ?

Once the exit is finalised that will not be possible.

economic turmoil, as people and markets absorb the uncertainties about the country’s economic future

Why have the world markets reacted with knee jerks actions ?

They have two years to see what happens before the UK is out of the EU.

So why the doom and gloom without even waiting to see what is going to happen in two years time.

Other than to sell high and after the mess settles buy low.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

If I could post a picture on here, it would show the uk as 1 big toilet, why? because the UK is in turmoil right now and I can't see it getting any better for years, and this come on the back of a very deep recession which were just starting to come out of.

2 ( +6 / -4 )

Economically, after decades of integration, disengagement, the term is relevant, is without doubt unmanageable in the current and future UK/EU obstinately uncooperative political environment.

Take one area, building blocks of the single market - Legal metrology, and the measuring instruments - guidance documents....it will take a team of six on shifts, months just to formulate a composite breakdown to interpret UK adherence to continued standardisation.

http://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/goods/building-blocks/legal-metrology/

https://ec.europa.eu/growth/single-market/goods/building-blocks/legal-metrology/measuring-instruments/guidance-standards

It is inevitable Azzprin, that all net contributing member states will have to provide financial support to the recapitalizing of Italian banks. The IMF will need to be fully involved with the aid program with the Treasury Department at the Italian economy ministry.

Europe historically, culturally, economically both monetary and fiscally is so politically diverse as to prevent a Federal Union....

2 ( +2 / -0 )

I still can't see how the Brexit can happen without total disintegration of the United Kingdom.

Maybe they'll just copy the French referendum on the EU constitution in 2005 and gently ignore the results further down the line when people have calmed down.. Let's face it, a majority of idiots voted on the same racist and bigoted ideas in each referendum, deluded that their efforts would somehow rid the country of foreigners.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

"What is interesting is the constant predictions of doom when it is likely to be the opposite for the UK"

The UK is still in the EU as we speak.

The "doom" will become a reality after we leave.

Hold on to yer horses.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

@JeffLee

Living standards and median British incomes have been in decline since the influx from enlargement.

First, that's just not true. Median income kept rising up until the 2008 crash. This was years after hundreds of thousands of eastern Europeans had already moved to the UK.

Secondly, incomes have declined just as much for the top 10th percentile of income earners (Bankers, Lawyers, etc) as they have for the bottom 90th percentile. This is an across the board decline, not wages in specific low skilled sectors being driven down by immigrants.

Thirdly, correlation is not causation. If these declines were caused solely by EU migrants, you would expect to see incomes declining in other EU countries that have also seen an influx of lower skilled Eastern European workers. You don't. Countries like France, Germany, Sweden, Austria, Finland and Belgium have all seen wage increases since 2004, and even after the 2008 crisis. Britain is just a poor performing outlier among western European countries which suggests that the answer for declining incomes lies elsewhere.

What has happened is that the subsidizing of low wage workers through working tax credits has led to the UK having one of the lowest unemployment rates in Europe, but also to Britain's economy being built largely on creating low wage service jobs.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Madverts: "deluded that their efforts would somehow rid the country of foreigners."

What's funnier about it is how many foreigners, especially Chinese, are buying land since the Pound bombed.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Don't worry Smith. Farage will save us from all the foreigners. I'm sure his cowardly resignation was just a ruse to lull Johnny foreigner into a buying spree before coming back, sword swinging to save the Pound ...

1 ( +2 / -1 )

Good grief there are a lot of sore people making comments. We have no idea what the future holds, but so far things have been really good.

The FTSE 100 is doing amazingly well, the FTSE 250 also. The lower pound has meant that exports are the most competitive they've been in decades. This has created new jobs, interesting how this doesn't get a mention in mainstream media.

Australia and a number of other countries have already admitted that they're eager to re-establish strong trade links with the UK. About 10 countries so far have come forward to start writing up future deals, already those countires combined are a larger market than the EU.

Siemens with other companies have announced more investment in the UK. Softbank's news means that there will be more jobs created for British workers.

The negativity is getting tiring. If you really are concerned for the UK and its future then talk it up, not down.

-5 ( +1 / -6 )

@jefflee, As a responsible employer i find it difficult to find trained staff, either I've got to train each person, thus costing me a small fortune, and now that i have to pay this pension on top my profit margins have been squeezed and squeezed, its getting to a point that ill chuck the towel in, although there is labour out there, most and I say loosely most Brits don't want to work, I can't charge any more as there is a lot of unqualified people out there undertaking my type of work, and most is cash in hand and I can't and I don't want to compete, sorry I work for nothing, because they get so many benefits its not worth them coming off the dole, so the problem lies with previous governments handing out shed loads of money with little return, i.e. they should do some sort of unpaid local work, and if they turn down a reasonable job offer may be they should forfeit any benefits, we need to change attitudes to work soon, right, back to immigration, there are some sectors of the public that call the Polish and other races, but what they can't see is that they work! they work hard for there money!!! IF all of the poles and XXX go home as they chant this country will come to a grinding halt! I don't have a problem with people that come to the UK and they work and support them selfs and there families, unfortunately there is a small band of people, we have bread a nation of lazy people who rely on hand outs, this has to change,

1 ( +1 / -0 )

The problem with the EU is Europe is not Switzerland writ large.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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