China’s population falls for first time since 1961; highlighting demographic crisis

They're still everywhere, though... not necessarily inside the mainland.

The death rate, the highest since 1974 during the Cultural Revolution

Assumably, this is not due to COVID deaths?

1.4 billion is enough.

demographic crisis ????

ok so we have chinese data and now lets compare it with Japan...and its demography

The demographic profile and trend in China is like Japan but faster and on a bigger scale (Message to the hear-no-evils: No this is not a criticism of Japan as second best). The suggestion has been made that China has undercounted its population too. Check out Peter Zaihan on Joe Rogan, if you are interested.

China’s economic miracle came largely as a result of its successful efforts to suppress its population growth though the one-child policy, etc. The famines and grinding poverty ended and the prosperity started once the population size was stabilized.

The narrative that economies need ever-expanding populations as a condition of prosperity is the biggest myth out there.  The opposite is true.

The problem, Jeff Lee, might be about the condition of the people remaining in a smaller population. Are they the economically active ones or are they old and decrepit? I can't see how the latter will be a good thing.

The narrative that economies need ever-expanding populations as a condition of prosperity is the biggest myth out there. The opposite is true.

The narrative that that China's economic growth over the past 40 years is attributable to its one-child policy is a myth. There is no evidence at all that a lower birth rate leads to higher economic growth, if anything it makes economic growth more difficult rather than easier.

China's growth came about because it reformed the insane form of governance it had under Mao that had led to the famines , opened up its economy to trade, introduced market based reforms, and turned itself into the factory of the world.

The famines and grinding poverty ended and the prosperity started once the population size was stabilized.

This is just factually wrong. The last major famine in China occurred decades before the one child policy was introduced and was the result of idiotic Mao BS (Great leap forward), not due to the size of the population. Also, the "population size was stabilized"....in 2022 which, according to the article, is when the population peaked, so one can't attribute 40 years of economic growth before that to a stable or shrinking population size because the population was still growing throughout those years.

This is going to create all kinds of economic and political problems going forward and not just for China but for the world.

Laws forbidding more than one child have been replaced by social and economic limitations meaning that like S. Korea and Japan, one child will continue to be the norm.

I fear a continued trend towards selective abortions resulting in an imbalance of males to females resulting in an entire generation of young men with no marriage prospects.

I think it is safe to say that a large number of men with no women in thier lives tends to create a variety of social problems.

We could see an increase in female trafficing in an effort to combat this trend especially in rural areas.

Ugh, what a mess.

I regard the global population surpassing 8 billion more serious than changing demographics which ultimately can be managed by adaptive tax and social policies.

With humanity's footprint already the equivalent of 1.8 earths, falls in populations should be embraced.

With humanity's footprint already the equivalent of 1.8 earths, falls in populations should be embraced.

No. Reductions in the birth rate in countries with populations that are continuing to skyrocket, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, are to be embraced because that is where all the population growth in the world is happening. And those are also mostly places where they really cannot sustain larger populations.

Populations in east Asia getting greyer isn't going to solve anything and it makes no sense to cheer it on given the enormous problems it is going to create.

EastmanToday  03:20 pm JST

ok so we have chinese data and now lets compare it with Japan...and its demography

What for? The article makes no mention of Japan whatsoever.

The dropping population numbers would present a problem if China were to face a labor shortage, but that doesn't seem likely.

They'd also present a problem if major housing 'developers' were able to force the government to artificially maintain housing value, but the fall of a few of them suggests that won't happen

Between automation in what used to be labor intensive sectors (farming, resource extraction, manufacturing) increased familial investment in the smaller number of children offsetting the smaller family sizes, military security becoming divorced from the number of soldiers that can be fielded, and the possibility of selective immigration filling any critical shortfalls, the changes wrought in the last 50 years makes this not the crisis it would have been last century.

The less the better.

@rainyday

There is no evidence at all that a lower birth rate leads to higher economic growth,

So what? Economic growth is merely a change in aggregate output. The more people, the bigger the output. But that doesn't tell us much about a country's economic health or living standards. Luxembourg's output is tiny but its people are the among the world's most affluent. Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand, etc...the global ranking of the world's best places socio economically is dominated by countries with small populations.

The last major famine in China occurred decades before the one child policy was introduced and was the result of idiotic Mao BS 

Yes, in the 1960s, while China's population skyrocketed. The population doubled from 1950 to 1990. But once the pace of population growth was slowed down, living standards started to rise rapidly.

So what? 

What do you mean so what? This is what you said:

China’s economic miracle came largely as a result of its successful efforts to suppress its population growth though the one-child policy, etc.

But that doesn't tell us much about a country's economic health or living standards.

Its not the only thing, but actually yes, there is a pretty decent correlation between the size of an economy and the living standards of its population.

Luxembourg's output is tiny but its people are the among the world's most affluent. Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand, etc...the global ranking of the world's best places socio economically is dominated by countries with small populations.

Yup, being a small country sometimes helps. But so? This is an article about the world’s most populous country which, by your own statements, has a high standard of living, so obviously having a small population is not a pre condition to economic well being.

Yes, in the 1960s, while China's population skyrocketed. 

No, this is even mentioned in the article: the last time there was a major famine the population declined (as one would expect in a famine). And if you know anything about Chinese history, you should know that the cause had nothing to do with the birth rate.

The population doubled from 1950 to 1990. 

So in other words when it had a population half the size it experienced famine, but with double the population in 1990 everyone was well fed and the economy was booming?

But once the pace of population growth was slowed down, living standards started to rise rapidly.

No, living standards began to rise years before the one child policy had any effect. The cause and effect relationship you are trying to establish just doesn’t exist.

It’s a crisis from economical standpoint, yes, however for the sustainability of finite earth resources it’s a bless, people always think in terms next decade or few decades, from the overall health of earth as a whole, we need to at least make sure we maintain population growth and not to put additional strain on the ecosystem as a whole.

even though may not be a good thing for the Chinese economy in the next few decades but I believe it’s a step in the right direction. Also congrats to India for taking over the helm as the most populous country on earth much faster than previously anticipated! And stay unchallenged for rest of the century.

The dropping population numbers would present a problem if China were to face a labor shortage, but that doesn't seem likely.

China's labor force has been declining since 2014. It is a major problem as the current population ages and with their low total fertility rate there will be fewer and fewer workers to support an increasing cohort of non-working elderly.

 Also congrats to India for taking over the helm as the most populous country on earth much faster than previously anticipated! And stay unchallenged for rest of the century.

India is a mess with a vastly lower standard of living and much poorer infrastructure than China has. They can't feed the people they have now. The kind of poverty one finds in India makes the worst of China look pretty tolerable. On top of that you have widespread social and religious violence egged on by the ruling BJP party.