world

China's Xi warns of 'grim' situation with Taiwan

43 Comments

The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.

© 2021 AFP

©2021 GPlusMedia Inc.

43 Comments

Comments have been disabled You can no longer respond to this thread.

[T]he situation in the Taiwan Strait is complex and grim . . .

There are a couple of additional layers to this.

We know already: Taiwan's main opposition party, The Kuomintang or KMT, on Saturday 25 September elected Mr. Eric Chu as Chairman for a likely four year term, defeating the incumbent KMT chair Mr. Johnny Chiang. Dr Chang Ya-chung, who was elected as the interim party leader after its chair stepped down following the KMT's loss in the 2020 presidential election, came in second.

The KMT is very pro reunification with the mainland, and is largely favorable to the CCP's policies regarding Taiwan.

Chu reiterated that he will abide by the "1992 consensus," an understanding in principle reached between Taiwan's then KMT government and the CCP in 1992, saying that there is only one China; but that both sides are free to interpret whatever that means.

Since losing the 2016 presidential election to the current ruling Democratic Progressive Party (or DPP, a pro sovereignity party in Taiwan), the KMT have suffered electorial losses across the island. .

The letter: Xi wrote to Chu on Sunday, congratulating him on his victory, saying that the CCP and the KMT should collaborate under a "shared political basis," and seek "national reunification and seeking national revitalization."

Chu reportedly replied to Xi, saying that he hoped for common ground and increased mutual trust, geniality, and cooperation. He then said that people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait were "all the children of the Yellow Emperor" - in other words, all Chinese. Chu then blamed the current pro-independence government under President Tsai Ing-wen for tensions with Beijing after pursuing its unreasonable "desinicization" and "anti-China policies."

The Mainland Affairs Council, MAC, a cabinet-level council, lost no time in denounging "Pro-Beijing pandering" and "catering" by the KMT, and allowing their party to become a target for China’s “united front” tactics. The DPP targets KMT candidates in elections for supporting an unmerited and outdated cross-strait policy, that polls show is widely unpopular particularly among younger Taiwanese

The DPP also quickly critized the KMT, for being way too overjoyed that Xi sent a congratulatory message to Chu. Party members pointed to Chu's earlier statement - that "a congratulatory message from Xi would be like “a gift from the sky”" - to actually have been a bad thing for the future of Taiwan. One DPP rep went to the snark side, telling a reporter that an absence of congratulations from the CCP to the KMT would have signaled that there were "some obvious problems" inside the KMT.

Next: Local elections are scheduled in 2022, referendum elections (if any) in 2023, and the presidential and legislative main event is in 2024.

17 ( +17 / -0 )

Thank you @Skeptical. This insight is very interesting.

12 ( +12 / -0 )

Imagine the mass arrests of Taiwanese should the Mainland ever take over Taiwan. Hong Kong is much more conservative, yet even they are fleeing. If such a scenario ever happened, we'd see one of the largest migrations in modern history.

29 ( +30 / -1 )

Screw China they need to be stopped at all cost.

39 ( +41 / -2 )

The DPP targets KMT candidates in elections for supporting an unmerited and outdated cross-strait policy, that polls show is widely unpopular particularly among younger Taiwanese

Thanks skeptical for the detailed analysis. I’ve been to Taiwan and have spoken to people on both sides of the divide and there seems to be little common ground.

However the younger generation do not identify with China and that will be the key deciding factor in Taiwan!!!

25 ( +26 / -1 )

Clarification:

In 2016's combined presidential and legislative elections: In a three-way presidential race, Ms. Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP (who was rejected by voters four years earlier), won a landslide victory to become Taiwan’s first female president. Her main opponent, Mr. Eric Chu of the KMT, lost the election by a large margin of 3 million or 25% of 12 million votes. A distant third place went to Mr. James Soong of the People’s First Party (PFP), who only managed around 12% of the vote.

In 2020's combined election, in another three-way race, Ms. Tsai Ing-wen of the DPP defeated Mr. Han Kuo-yu of the KMT and Mr. James Soong of the PFP in another landslide with nearly 58% of the vote.

I see a pattern emerging here . . .

12 ( +13 / -1 )

It's not the size of a country, rather the will of the people. Taiwan must prepare for the inevitable.

8 ( +15 / -7 )

China is being more aggressive with Taiwan because it perceives (correctly) that the Biden administration is weak.

-14 ( +17 / -31 )

XI is becoming a Darthvader-like character. Darth, you have to calm down. The world is watching you very carefully now.

25 ( +26 / -1 )

China is being more aggressive with Taiwan because it perceives (correctly) that the Biden administration is weak.

Interesting. So why was China so aggressive with Hong Kong during the Trump administration?

16 ( +25 / -9 )

After what happened to Hong Kong, it would be suicidal for any freedom loving Taiwanese to wish reunification with China!

28 ( +29 / -1 )

The renewed saber-rattling at Taiwan may be a subtle sign that Xi might be losing his mojo in the eyes of the Beijing commie ratpack and thus needs to deflect criticism of his leadership and political ambitions. Xi's cockiness will have been fed by his success in stomping on the HK democracy movement, which makes this a time of living dangerously for both sides.

18 ( +19 / -1 )

It is grim for Taiwan as it continues to live under the threat of invasion and occupation. It is grim for China because more than ever before, Taiwan is getting international support that makes the aforementioned invasion more difficult and costly. Perhaps the most grim is that Xi has made taking Taiwan an irreversible national goal, making any peaceful resolution nearly impossible.

22 ( +24 / -2 )

that the Biden administration is weak.

I'm curious what would be considered 'not weak', perhaps 'strong" by those who've accused Biden and NATO of being warmongers.

Waiting to hear what y'all think Biden should do so he isn't perceived by you as being weak.

8 ( +15 / -7 )

What a monster the leader of China has become, whereas pooh San is so gentle and cuddly

18 ( +19 / -1 )

Stay the course, Taiwan. QUAD and the free world has your back when this kicks off. Which could be very soon.

China will regret it if they invade the independent nation of Taiwan.

20 ( +22 / -2 )

China is being more aggressive with Taiwan because it perceives (correctly) that the Biden administration is weak.

muricans trying to be relevant by explaining everything in the world revolves around their political views.

-7 ( +4 / -11 )

China is being more aggressive with Taiwan because it perceives (correctly) that the Biden administration is weak.

Yes, weak and in his pocket.

-17 ( +7 / -24 )

GarthgoyleToday  09:56 am JST

China is being more aggressive with Taiwan because it perceives (correctly) that the Biden administration is weak.

muricans trying to be relevant by explaining everything in the world revolves around their political views.

Probably not Americans. The US position on China is bipartisan.

10 ( +14 / -4 )

"unification of the country."

In the dictionary, a country is defined simply as an area of land that is controlled by its own government. I would further add that a country has the right to control its borders, issue currency, and tax its citizens. As far as I am aware, communist China does not exercise any such powers over Taiwan since Taiwan's founding and so Taiwan is by definition a separate country. This means any unification is an invasion. I think China should have wrapped this up a long long time ago if it had been serious about "reunification".

12 ( +12 / -0 )

Oss am at 8:39 above. Well said. If the Taiwan situation looks grim it’s because Xi has talked himself into this trap, with the PLAN readying their invasion barges and attack helicopters.

It is surprising though that the KMT (once mortal enemies) in order to find political relevance would consider dancing to the CCP’s tune.

13 ( +13 / -0 )

Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that relations between Beijing and Taipei were "grim" on Sunday

Gee, I wonder why? It's almost as if Xi Jinping isn't aware that people really hate freedom-oppressing tyrannical dictators. Maybe if he tried being a good person for once, opinions of him would improve. Maybe if his diplomacy involved respecting Taiwan's independence rather than trying to force them to obey his orders, there'd be warmer ties between the two countries.

And maybe I'll win the lottery.

16 ( +16 / -0 )

If you read more into this, most of the people in Taiwan do not wish for independence and certainly not reunification. They'd rather maintain the status quo given the realistic possibility of war.

Ideally independence if they could, but not if there will be war. The western allies must persuade that the Taiwanese that war is worth fighting more and that revolution, the Irish War of Independence, American Revolutionary War, and so on, entailed the loss of lives but freedom is worthwhile.

I am not convinced the Taiwanese wish for freedom to the point of going through war because it will be fought on the island that'll become targets of missiles fired.

We also need to convince young Americans and Australians that it's worthwhile to die for the Taiwanese, which won't be easy.

The status quo is what the people want and the most sensible choice.

-1 ( +8 / -9 )

that the Biden administration is weak.

I'm curious what would be considered 'not weak', perhaps 'strong" by those who've accused Biden and NATO of being warmongers.

Waiting to hear what y'all think Biden should do so he isn't perceived by you as being weak.

Biden had already withdrawn US troops from Afghanistan, created AUKUS, and settled the Meng case.

Actions speak louder than loud mouthing.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

I'm pretty sure China could just go and annex Taiwan if they wanted,a la Russia doing the Crimea.And the world leaders would just watch and apart from a few complaints roll with it.

-14 ( +4 / -18 )

I'm pretty sure China could just go and annex Taiwan if they wanted,a la Russia doing the Crimea.And the world leaders would just watch and apart from a few complaints roll with it.

You are mistaken.

QUAD and AUKUS would come down on the Commies like a ton of bricks if they invaded Taiwan. China would never win with that level of opposition.

Crimea and Taiwan are very, very different geopolitical situations. An invasion of Taiwan would be 100 times more serious.

14 ( +16 / -2 )

So why was China so aggressive with Hong Kong during the Trump administration?

Well Hong Kong is Chinese territory, and Biden admin is considered weak globally, and as such most countries are reasserting their position with the US..

-13 ( +4 / -17 )

Must be some problems at home ands Xi needs a distraction. As if, most mainland Chinese give a hoot about Taiwan.

Right-wing crazies in Taiwan, that seem to be proliferate worldwide, are looking to get a leg-up for the elections.

And. Really, does anyone A C T U A L L Y 'think' China will invade Taiwan. Not exactly the economic model for China's further rise to power. To put it simply: Foxconn, is a Taiwanese conglomerate that assembles such as Apple products IN CHINA. Consider that. It is all bluster.

-9 ( +3 / -12 )

Grim it is for Comrade Xi Jin Ping!

The Chinese people loves and envy the democratic way of life in Taiwan.

They are now yearnin for freedom too!

The problem with Xi's threat to invade Taiwan is that he's pushing a hesitant USA, the EU and Japan into a corner leavin them with no other recourse but to fight on the side of a fellow democracy if the PLA fires the first shot.

When this happens , Xi wil then l be toppled coz the other leaders of China would not want to see the progress their county made go down the drain.

10 ( +12 / -2 )

More hot air from the “God Emperor” and his toadies the KMT. Sorry Xinnie, the free world stands against you.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Reunification, when it comes, will trigger all sorts of secondary effects across Asia and beyond. Sensing that the tide has turned and the ancien regime is crumbling, the Yellow emperor fan club will suddenly be the only game in town as the ‘how now kow tow’ opportunists shamelessly abandon one set in stone certitude for another.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Yes, it will be a grim day for china, when it realizes the world isn’t you to LAY DOWN for it. We’re all going to FIGHT BACK Xi.

8 ( +10 / -2 )

and the world leaders would just watch and apart from a few complaints roll with it.

Here is possible reason why they would choose not to engage.

https://www.businessinsider.com/the-us-apparently-gets-its-ass-handed-to-it-in-war-games-2019-3

Is Business Insider and the RAND Corporationa reliable source?

Per article US loses to Russian and China:

In war games simulating a high-end fight against Russia or China, the US often loses, two experienced military war-gamers have revealed. "In our games, when we fight Russia and China, 'blue' gets its ass handed to it," David Ochmanek, a RAND warfare analyst, explained at the Center for a New American Security on Thursday, Breaking Defense first reported. US forces are typically color-coded blue in these simulations. "We lose a lot of people. We lose a lot of equipment. We usually fail to achieve our objective of preventing aggression by the adversary," he said.

US stealth fighters die on the runway

At the outset of these conflicts, all five battlefield domains — land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace — are contested, meaning the US could struggle to achieve the superiority it has enjoyed in the past. In these simulated fights, the "red" aggressor force often obliterates US stealth fighters on the runway, sends US warships to the depths, destroys US bases, and takes out critical US military systems.

"In every case I know of, the F-35 rules the sky when it’s in the sky," Robert Work, a former deputy secretary of defense and an experienced war-gamer, said Thursday. "But it gets killed on the ground in large numbers." Neither China nor Russia has developed a fifth-generation fighter as capable as the F-35, but even the best aircraft have to land. That leaves them vulnerable to attack.

US warships are wiped off the board

"Things that sail on the surface of the sea are going to have a hard time," Ochmanek said. Aircraft carriers, traditional beacons of American military might, are becoming increasingly vulnerable. They may be hard to kill, but they are significantly less difficult to take out of the fight. Naval experts estimate that US aircraft carriers now need to operate at least 1,000 nautical miles from the Chinese mainland to keep out of range of China's anti-ship missiles, according to USNI News.

US bases burn

"If we went to war in Europe, there would be one Patriot battery moving, and it would go to Ramstein [in Germany]. And that’s it," Work explained, according to Breaking Defense. "We have 58 Brigade Combat Teams, but we don’t have anything to protect our bases. So what difference does it make?" Simply put, the US military bases scattered across Europe and the Pacific don't have the anti-air and missile-defense capabilities required to handle the overwhelming volume of fire they would face in a high-end conflict.

US networks and systems crumble

In a conflict against a near-peer threat, US communications satellites, command-and-control systems, and wireless networks would be crippled. "The brain and the nervous system that connects all of these pieces is suppressed, if not shattered," Ochmanek said of this scenario. Work said the Chinese call this type of attack "system destruction warfare."

The Chinese would "attack the American battle network at all levels, relentlessly, and they practice it all the time," Work said. "On our side, whenever we have an exercise, when the red force really destroys our command and control, we stop the exercise and say, 'let's restart.'"

A sobering assessment

"These are the things that the war games show over and over and over, so we need a new American way of war without question," Work stressed. Ochmanek and Work have both seen US war games play out undesirably, and their damning observations reflect the findings of an assessment done from last fall.

"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat," the National Defense Strategy Commission — a bipartisan panel of experts picked by Congress to evaluate the National Defense Strategy — said in a November report.

The report called attention to the erosion of the US's military edge by rival powers, namely Russia and China, which have developed a "suite of advanced capabilities heretofore possessed only by the United States."

The commission concluded the US is "at greater risk than at any time in decades."

 You are mistaken.

QUAD and AUKUS would come down on the Commies like a ton of bricks if they invaded Taiwan.

They will analyze various simulations before jumping in.

-15 ( +1 / -16 )

And sure the CCP will keep any promises they make to the KMT.

Just the same way they kept the 50-year ‘one country, two system’ transition period in HK.

12 ( +12 / -0 )

Were the soldiers of the evil empire to invade Taiwan then how could Taiwan's allies hope to repel the PLU without striking China and if that were the case how could a world wide war not start? I think xi and his fanatical followers will either have to make the determination that Taiwan would have no allies were it to invade or be prepared to become the aggressor in what might be described as WW3. Is Xi stupid or desperate enough to start a world war? If his popularity were to decline beyond a certain point within his own party I think he might. He is after all a cruel megalomaniac addicted to power and control.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Saber rattling. And with the incompetent Biden regime in the US, Xi knows he can get away with aggression against Taiwan.

Wait for those CCP restrictions on ship movement from and to Taiwan to start.

-8 ( +1 / -9 )

Bradley

Were the soldiers of the evil empire to invade Taiwan

Why is a sudden military "invasion" all you can think of? That is not the way the CCP operates. What XiJiping will do is gradually impose ever more restrictions on movement around Taiwan (note that the entire island is with the 9-dot zone), leading up to a complete blockade.

You think the current crop of Western leaders stands up to that? At what point in the process of slowly boiling the frog?

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Biden is a warmonger!

Biden is weak!

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Here's the point that no one seems to comprehend: the Taiwan straits are incredibly strategic, as is the South China Sea. The Crimea? Not nearly as so.

It IS in the World's best interest (especially economic) that Taiwan remain an independent country (to all the Wumao's out there, yes, Taiwan IS a country). China is intent on using the South China Sea to buy/bully/control the rest of Asia and..the world. China may not want war, but they CERTAINLY want the South China Sea to be fully controlled by China. That way, China will be the World's manufacturer AND the world's exporter AND the world's 'middle man'. China is unlikely to want war, but diplomacy has NOT worked with China (see: Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong). The Wumao's will always counter 'but Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjian are just PART of China anyway, like Taiwan.' Gee....what's next the 9-dash line? I think we see a pattern here.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Biden is a warmonger!

Biden is weak!

Such binary thinking. He can be both, depending on the specific situations each time, right?

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

China is intent on using the South China Sea to buy/bully/control the rest of Asia and..the world. China may not want war, but they CERTAINLY want the South China Sea to be fully controlled by China. 

A likely collision scenario would be a U.S. Navy warship and a Chinese fishing boat or China Coast Guard cutter. Those fishing boats are not really fishing boats. They have thousands of fishing craft with white Coast Guard there to rescue if challenged. This could set things off.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

At what point in the process of slowly boiling the frog?

Slowly boiling the frog is an apt description. Another would the Eskimo wolf trap. For China, it was always supposed to have been to fly under the radar and be low key. Xi made too big of a wave with the Belt Road Initiative, made in china 2025, and the militarization of the South China Seas. He didn't speak softly and he didn't hide his big stick.

The Rise and Fall of Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 suggests failure to balance wealth and economic base with military power and strategic commitments will leave states vulnerable. The US military spending and 28 trillion debt are like blood to the MIC and the wall street wolves.

To trap wolves, Eskimos will freeze a knife's blade using ice mixed with rabbit's blood. When a wolf approaches and aggressively licks the frozen blood on the knife, the blade will gradually get exposed and nick the wolf's tongue. In a short period of time, the wolf will grow dizzy and die from blood loss as he continues to lick and savor his own blood.

It may not be short period of time for great powers, but the frog is slowly boiling. The wolf is continuously licking.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

It seems that WW3 is not off the table. It may already be to late. Japan is also a big target. If Taiwan falls? Perhaps Okinawa next. And, other islands one by one.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Articles, Offers & Useful Resources

A mix of what's trending on our other sites