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China-backed bank halts lending to Russia, Belarus

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Woah! I did not expect THAT!

8 ( +10 / -2 )

meh, self interest, it doesn't want to lend to a potential bankrupt. Its decision is not about saving lives in Ukraine

1 ( +7 / -6 )

I think the Chinese are concerned the west may sanction Chinese banks, businesses and government organizations, even individual party members, that are seen as circumventing western sanctions on Russia. My guess is that the CCP was surprised to see how rapidly the seemingly disparate and quarreling western nations suddenly pulled together, how fast sanctions were agreed upon and imposed, and the unprecedented harshness of the sanctions considering Russia is a major global power. For now at least the Chinese will tip toe around anything related to Russia and Ukraine.

6 ( +9 / -3 )

Russia is a major global power.

Militarily to a point.

For now at least the Chinese will tip toe around anything related to Russia and Ukraine.

Until they figure out all of the west’s strength and weaknesses pertaining to this invasion while set the plans for their own takeover of Taiwan.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

I wonder if this could be a sign that China might be putting a bit of distance between itself and Putin.

They were probably OK with Putin taking over Ukraine when they thought it was going to be a quick and not too messy affair. Now that they are seeing it blow up in his face and the massive instability it is introducing into the international system they are probably having second thoughts about that. Skyrocketing energy costs, huge disruptions to global trade and the financial system, a more united West that is ramping up defense spending - all of these effects are bad for China.

The more destabilizing it becomes, the more of a threat it poses to China's own interests and starts to outweigh whatever benefit they might have wanted from Putin trying to give the west a black eye. Given that China is the only major country maintaining relatively friendly relations with Putin, they have a huge amount of leverage over him and might play a key role in bringing this war to a close if and when they decide they want to.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

I think the Chinese are concerned the west may sanction Chinese banks, businesses and government organizations, even individual party members, that are seen as circumventing western sanctions on Russia.

exactly!

My guess is that the CCP was surprised to see how rapidly the seemingly disparate and quarreling western nations suddenly pulled together, how fast sanctions were agreed upon and imposed, and the unprecedented harshness of the sanctions considering Russia is a major global power.

Exactly! And I'll bet Xi's tone is going to change from now on. And I'll bet he'll put a leash and a muzzle on Zhao Lijian and other members of the foreign ministry over there.  They didn't expect this reaction from the west and they are taking notes.

For now at least the Chinese will tip toe around anything related to Russia and Ukraine.

Personally, I think they'll tiptoe around the West in general. And I'm willing to bet they'll cool their heels around Taiwan as well.

7 ( +9 / -2 )

Until they figure out all of the west’s strength and weaknesses pertaining to this invasion while set the plans for their own takeover of Taiwan.

I wonder if a Chinese concern right now is that the Ukraine war is going to make it harder for them to move against Taiwan rather than easier as maybe they had originally hoped.

If things in Ukraine had gone according to plan for Putin in Ukraine, with limited western reaction, it probably would have emboldened China to make a move on Taiwan. But seeing how badly its gone for Putin and how united it has made the west is probably giving them some pause. China is a lot stronger economically and militarily (at least with conventional forces) than Russia is, but they can probably now see that the economic impact of an invasion of Taiwan is going to be higher now that the question of how much resolve the west would react to it with has been clarified.

They are probably still planning on doing it at some point anyway, but I suspect they are a bit more wary than they would have been without Ukraine going so bad for Putin.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

China is a lot stronger economically and militarily (at least with conventional forces) than Russia is, but they can probably now see that the economic impact of an invasion of Taiwan is going to be higher now that the question of how much resolve the west would react to it with has been clarified.

Exactly. I'd also like to add a couple of points...even though China is a lot stronger economically than Russia is, sanctions on China the way Russia is being sanctioned now is going to be a much bigger blow to their economy as they rely on exports. Especially if they get kicked out of SWIFT. The Russian economy has been under sanctions since their incursion into Georgia. They were not as dependent on the west as China is. The economic blow would be even more significant.

Second, they've seen the West willing to take pain for their principles. Russia is the main supplier of Gas to Europe, but that didn't stop Europe from cutting Russia off. The Chinese just assumed that the west is weak and decadent. But the speed with which they put a hurt on another HUGE superpower has shocked the Chinese. And I personally think they have gained a new respect and regard for the west. When this is over, I have a feeling the bellicose rhetoric we used to see coming from China is going to be toned down. A lot.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Well, that's an interesting turn of events. I thought these two loved and supported each other. Still, don't trust China.

No financing from China and no access to SWIFT would be the best sanctions at this point. Iran is limited as a source for any financial assistance for Putin. As collateral damage increases and now as Putin focusing on power plants, China must have reevaluated their stance.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

China is a lot stronger economically and militarily (at least with conventional forces) 

There are many similarities in how the PLA and Red Army are organized and equipped. The Chinese are no doubt studying the performance of the Red Army in Ukraine, or the lack thereof, and pondering the weaknesses in their own military, especially on the logistics side. In the aftermath of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake a news report revealed that in all of China there were only about 900 civil and military helicopters. The US Army has 960 UH-60Ms, some 700 AH-54s, 500 OH-58s and over 400 CH-47 Chinooks. There are hundreds more in the Air Force, Navy and Marines Corps. On top of that the civil helicopter fleet in the US is over 9300 helos. China has many weaknesses to ponder if it thinks it can pull off an invasion of Taiwan. Russia's experience with Ukraine and the stated willingness of the US to actively defend Taiwan should make the Chinese maybe a little less bellicose in the future.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Exactly. I'd also like to add a couple of points...even though China is a lot stronger economically than Russia is, sanctions on China the way Russia is being sanctioned now is going to be a much bigger blow to their economy as they rely on exports. Especially if they get kicked out of SWIFT. The Russian economy has been under sanctions since their incursion into Georgia. They were not as dependent on the west as China is. The economic blow would be even more significant.

Second, they've seen the West willing to take pain for their principles. Russia is the main supplier of Gas to Europe, but that didn't stop Europe from cutting Russia off. The Chinese just assumed that the west is weak and decadent. But the speed with which they put a hurt on another HUGE superpower has shocked the Chinese. And I personally think they have gained a new respect and regard for the west. When this is over, I have a feeling the bellicose rhetoric we used to see coming from China is going to be toned down. A lot.

Yes, I agree with this.

Another big difference I think is that the Russian government is basically just a kleptocracy based on one man's personal power. The Russian state doesn't really care if the country it runs is impoverished so long as Putin and his cronies can stay in power and hold onto most of their wealth.

China's government on the other hand isn't like that. I would never say that they have a good government, its terrible, but it isn't a kleptocracy based on the personal power of a single person like that. Xi is certainly a dictator, but I think the institutions of China's government are a bit stronger in controlling him than the (almost non-existent) ones in Russia are with respect to Putin. Also, while there is certainly a lot of corruption in Chinese government, particularly at the local level, the machinery of the central government is clearly designed to be the government of the country of China itself and not just the personal plaything of its individual ruler.

I think this difference in their governance structures, in addition to their economic situation like you described, makes the Chinese government a lot more risk averse than Russia's is and thus unlikely to start a destabilizing war like Putin did.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

There are many similarities in how the PLA and Red Army are organized and equipped. The Chinese are no doubt studying the performance of the Red Army in Ukraine, or the lack thereof, and pondering the weaknesses in their own military, especially on the logistics side. In the aftermath of the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake a news report revealed that in all of China there were only about 900 civil and military helicopters. The US Army has 960 UH-60Ms, some 700 AH-54s, 500 OH-58s and over 400 CH-47 Chinooks. There are hundreds more in the Air Force, Navy and Marines Corps. On top of that the civil helicopter fleet in the US is over 9300 helos. China has many weaknesses to ponder if it thinks it can pull off an invasion of Taiwan. Russia's experience with Ukraine and the stated willingness of the US to actively defend Taiwan should make the Chinese maybe a little less bellicose in the future.

I think its a mistake to focus too much on the numbers - Russia has lots of equipment but is doing miserably despite that.

I think the big lesson from Ukraine in that regard is that the corruption of Russia's civil service under Putin also extends to its military. If you can't trust a post office to deliver a letter, or the police to act in a professional manner, or any public servant to act for the public good rather than their own personal benefit, then you also can't trust that the military will actually be able to do its job properly either.

So they've got all sorts of advanced, modern armored vehicles and weapons systems that were paid for with oil money, but the people operating them are conscripts working in a military hierarchy that is so corrupt that it literally sent them into a war without even telling them they were sending them into a war. So its no wonder they are doing so badly, the soldiers had no idea what they were supposed to be doing there and thus made easy targets for the Ukrainians. I'm not sure how credible they are but there are lots of stories of Russians deserting and abandoning all those expensive armored vehicles to let them be destroyed because they know they are working in a corrupt system and its not worth losing their lives for.

While there is a lot of local corruption in China, and also a lot of lying going on, I doubt that their military is as degraded in that sense as Russia's is. If they ever invaded Taiwan I can't imagine they would just send a bunch of conscripts who don't know what they are doing en masse and not even tell them what they were supposed to do.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Everyone is learning and taking notes. China for what actions may be used against it if it moves on Taiwan and how the world seems to cooperate against such an invasion.

NATO is learning it can move fast when needed and agree when needed and see's potential in its future it had not recognized in quite some time.

The US that working with the EU, NATO and getting an even larger coalition on side for sanctions is better than sending in the troops, for as long as it remains effective.

Russia, that many more nations are against it than for it and what it is doing. Realising like China that the US/EU/free world democracies still wield a lot of world power when combined in unison.

The Ukraine, that it will get surprisingly more help than it had ever imagined, yet will not get the one thing that can tip the balance, troops on the ground or planes in the air.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

All part of the pantomime. Look anti Russian but when they try to take Taiwan Russian will back them.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

China is the first country to throw Russia under the bus if it damages its own plans for world domination.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Putin even delayed his invasion to after the Olympics at Xi’s request and this is how he is treated. China doesn’t care about anyone but itself.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

From China’s point of view an alliance with a still powerful though declining Russia was advantageous, but if it’s military can get taken apart by a relatively small, still poor country on the edge of Europe the utility of that alliance in the balance of potential damage to China comes in to serious question. China’s leadership is no more trustworthy or reliable than Poo tin has proven him self to be; the CCP will put its own survival, wealth, control and ambitions ahead of every other consideration. If in their view it becomes necessary to throw Russia under the bus they will, no doubt spouting the usual platitudes at the same time.

There are a lot of Chinese and Chinese corporations in the Far East of Russia running farms, land to feed the Chinese population. Russia may rue the day it invaded Ukraine if the Chinese see it as an appropriate moment to “reclaim” the lands they claim were theirs in the past while clothing it in the moral shroud of seeking to stop the slaughter in Ukraine?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I said this before: China will send all the well-wishing and words of support they can, but they aren’t going to risk more than token moves like increasing grain imports. Xi Jinping is many things, but stupid is not one of them. He understands that while he might align ideologically with Putin, Russia accounts for a tiny fraction of the Chinese economy when compared to the United States and the EU. He’s a shrewd enough capitalist to know that you don’t piss off the guy who buys most of your stuff.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

He amongst of, who has not been. sanction, let them cash their international check Google Russian Oil Bid

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

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