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1.4 bil but no more? China's population growth closer to zero

41 Comments
By JOE McDONALD and HUIZHONG WU

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The Danes have figured out how to maintain their population. They offer a large array of family support programs. France also has a total fertility rate right at replacement so their population is stable

You are confusing population growth with fertility rate. The fertility rate is dropping,no matter where you look.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Unlike the Japanese government, the CCP can order the people what to do, and they do it. Once the CCP recognizes the problem, look forward to more pregnancies.

That's not how its going to work.

The CCP, on the other hand, enforce abortions, harvest organs, run concentration camps, carry out forced sterilizations, assign husbands....

Only to the ethnic minorities. They are not going to be able to reverse the trend of declining birthrate through draconian measures. That's pie in the sky thinking.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I would be scared to death 24 hours every day.

Right wingers are always scared 24 hours a day. Their whole movement thrives on making people afraid, and exploiting that fear.

Must be a sad, pathetic existence to always be afraid and angry.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

The Danes have figured out how to maintain their population. They offer a large array of family support programs. France also has a total fertility rate right at replacement so their population is stable. It is possible to do, but governments at all levels have to make decisions about social services so young couples can either afford child care so both can work or earn enough so one parent can stay home and raise the children. Working people ten to twelve hours a day like the corporate world does is not the way forward. Nations must rethink how they organize their societies.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Unlike the Japanese government, the CCP can order the people what to do, and they do it. Once the CCP recognizes the problem, look forward to more pregnancies.

Not true. The CCP has been trying to get people to have more kids for a decade knowing this demographic cliff was fast approaching. They haven't succeeded. Big dense cities, both Asian and European, with most everyone living in high rise apartment or condo blocks are not conducive to raising families. It takes two wage earners in most countries today and that leaves the parents will too little time and energy for raising kids. Plus the cost of living in these cities is such that most people live on a financial razors edge from paycheck to paycheck with little saved.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Immigration? How many people actually try to risk their lives to immigrate into China? The only place I've ever heard do that was North Koreans.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

"If the population gets too old, it will be impossible to solve the problem through immigration," said Lu.

I can’t personally imagine wanting to immigrate to CCP China either to be honest, though no doubt some might want to. Japan is a better option.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

China's retirement age is 55!? Wow. That's, uh, pretty cool. Maybe I'll get a job there when I'm 54.

Just don't breathe the air or drink the water and you'll be fine.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

P. Smith

Japanese people snap into line when their government makes suggestions, so your analysis is inaccurate.

The Japanese government has been making suggestions to have more babies, but I don´t see people "snapping into line".

The CCP, on the other hand, can enforce abortions, harvest organs, run concentration camps, carry out forced sterilizations, assign husbands.... you seriously think that is comparable?

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Mass immigration of people from throughout the world is the answer! Just kidding. No it isn't.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Unlike the Japanese government, the CCP can order the people what to do, and they do it. 

Japanese people snap into line when their government makes suggestions, so your analysis is inaccurate.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

"Henry Kissinger once said that he wasn't concerned by China because 700m were still pre-agricultural.

Looks like there has been some improvement."

True.

They were a young country then.

Now they are one of the most rapidly aging Nations on earth.

With a low income populace, agricultural and intensive manufacturing industries for a base.

See the problems/issues?

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Aly Rustom

very soon. And the sooner the better.

Unlike the Japanese government, the CCP can order the people what to do, and they do it. Once the CCP recognizes the problem, look forward to more pregnancies.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

China still is a middle-income country with labor-intensive farming and manufacturing.

Henry Kissinger once said that he wasn't concerned by China because 700m were still pre-agricultural.

Looks like there has been some improvement.

Chinese projects in other countries are mostly to hire Chinese workers

Africa is learning the hard lesson that it is more than just that. The goal is to spend money on Chinese goods. Hardly any money is spent locally. An even bigger problem is that the other countries are taking out loans made by China to fund projects that will be eventually be owned by China.

Need a dam to improve access to water and reduce floods, China will help you.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

how about a pension ? ever cooler when possible ...

Alas, most Western nations won't guarantee that in a liveable amount. I must confess don't know China's pension policy.

The trend of increasing the retirement age is, however, horrific. The solution of capitalist governments to honoring their commitments to their citizens is to work them until they die before they can claim the money they have given the state. The average age of death has stalled among working class people, but is raising among the ultra wealthy, skewing the figures.

We must instead change our vision of what work is, who owns the products of their labor, and how to care for our elders in what should be the reward of their lives.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Empty Planet: Preparing for the Global Population Decline - YouTube

Here is an excellent Ted Talk that talks about the problem- 2 Canadian statisticians give a VERY interesting perspective on future demographics. VERY INTERESTING

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I also think this article fail to mention all the Chinese citizens that were supported by the CCP to live and work abroad. Chinese projects in other countries are mostly to hire Chinese workers, so they can pay taxes and send money back home while being a less of a strain on the services helps the government. These expats have no problem having large families in foreign countries. The CCP have been trying to put their population spillage onto other countries for decades. It also increases their soft power and supports their espionage activities abroad. Most countries around the world has a Chinatown. How many of those residents work for the CCP?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Not too far down the road China is going to be facing what Japan is going through now.

very soon. And the sooner the better.

Chinese regulators talk about raising the official retirement age of 55 to increase the pool of workers.

Yeah Japan is too. But to 70. maybe China can gradually do the same.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Thursday's data showed China has 105.7 million men and boys for every 100 women and girls, or about 33 million more males.

Surely the first "million" is an error

1 ( +1 / -0 )

China's retirement age is 55!? Wow. That's, uh, pretty cool.

how about a pension ? ever cooler when possible ...

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The retirement age will be increased from 60 to try and cope with increasing numbers of people living longer and fewer people entering the workforce.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

I understand what you are saying. But what I see as the bigger problem with Japan even trying to attempt to switch towards a more technological approach is the fact that they don't teach, develop, or invest in their employees acquiring skills. As the world shifts towards technology, skills become more important and Japanese companies don't like to create skilled workers because they assume it would cause their skilled workers to seek better working conditions elsewhere as skilled workers are a premium.

I agree with JJ Jetplane. The most well-known example of this concept was the "Ghosn case". We have learned that Nissan basically framed Ghosn because they would rather ruin his reputation than to have him leave for greener pastures!

I have personally dealt with vindictive Japanese companies when I decided to resign because I understand my value as an employee.

4 ( +4 / -0 )

@shogun

Don't they have those "unrecorded" or "unwanted" population as well? Or whatever they are called? The ones that can't get a job or place to live because they weren't wanted? I remember seeing a DOC about that one time. Do those people count?

Those are the people who were born mostly during the one-child policy era. They were unwanted because they are female, or they were wanted, but their parents could not register them for fear of punishment!

I read a story about a month ago about a Chinese woman who found out that she was adopted while engaged. It turned out that her fiance was also adopted. They discovered that fiance's adoptive mother was the one who abandoned the woman when she was a child.

Talk about an awkward wedding ceremony!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

@JJ Jetplane - I agree with you and get that feeling too. I rarely had any skills development training in my job and had to self-teach myself most of the stuff I need to know. If I'm going into the mindset of those people, automated is cheaper and more reliable than training your people, which isn't favorable for us. I hope they learn from their mistakes this early on before they become irreversible. I fear that this lifestyle is making us become less human and more like machines. As what the other commenters said, where will we see ourselves in the future if we continue to live on an achievement-driven system?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"Not too far down the road China is going to be facing what Japan is going through now."

No, they will not.

They will fare far worse. China will not be able to "lose" four decades as Japan has.

The article says it, it appears you did not read properly or understood it then.

Japan (and Germany) aged as a rich economy. With abundant capital reserves and high-end technology.

That high-end tech not seen with naked eyes which China cannot replicate till today.

Japa is the "world's banker".

China is aging faster than most other countries (including Japan) on a low-income economy, with farming and intensive manufacturing for a base.

Many postings here assume that China's second-largest GDP means they are rich, forever growing, and unstoppable.

They weren't reading because this is "old" news.

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

@Toshihiro

Until when, though? When the current workforce isn't replenished in the coming generations, who will man them? It would be good if they'd allow foreign workers to fill those in.

I understand what you are saying. But what I see as the bigger problem with Japan even trying to attempt to switch towards a more technological approach is the fact that they don't teach, develop, or invest in their employees acquiring skills. As the world shifts towards technology, skills become more important and Japanese companies don't like to create skilled workers because they assume it would cause their skilled workers to seek better working conditions elsewhere as skilled workers are a premium.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Fewer people is exactly what the world needs.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

I think as people in my generation get older we are just gonna have to work until death. A good point about Japan is that cheap housing seems to be abundant outside the major cities, so once you leave your day job you might move to the countryside and farm and hunt with a small business like a coffee shop or English school to make ends meet. It won't be a bad life if you are with the right person.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

So when should it (population growth) stop? We need a reckoning between those who worry about a slowdown in human population growth and those who understand human population growth is unsustainable.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Does any of this sound familiar to you guys?

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Simian Lane

Aging populations are fine. They grow old and pass. The long-term end result is less people, and that is for the best!

Correction: A smaller population is fine. The problem is the skewed age pyramid, while a population is shrinking.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

The much bigger problem is , what then follows, what bunch of countries and kind of people will take it all over , because they have unbelievable sharply rising populations. That is it what you all really should have fears about and everyday sleepless nights with nightmares.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

@Yubaru:

Not true. If you look at full articles rather than the one posted here you will see different and more expanded information, even though much of the text is the same and photos as well. Here are some parts left out.

Japan, Germany and some other rich countries face the same challenge of supporting aging populations with fewer workers. But they can draw on decades of investment in factories, technology and foreign assets.

China is a middle-income country with labor-intensive farming and manufacturing.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

One of the world's most populous countries achieving almost a 0 population growth shows it can be done.

One of? Last time I checked it was THE most populous country. You also conveniently overlook at what cost it took to get there, and the cost it is going to pay in the future, for a goal that, in the long run, sure seems like a huge mistake!

How many thousands maybe millions, of "girl" infants were slaughtered, because they were the wrong sex,and the government only allowed one child?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Don't they have those "unrecorded" or "unwanted" population as well? Or whatever they are called? The ones that can't get a job or place to live because they weren't wanted? I remember seeing a DOC about that one time. Do those people count?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Good, the entire model of constant growth is obviously not sustainable. Populations can't grow infinitely within limited resources. At some point we either step up and slow/decrease populations, or an extinction event will take care of it for us.

One of the world's most populous countries achieving almost a 0 population growth shows it can be done.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

Young couples who might want to have a child face daunting challenges. Many share crowded apartments with their parents. Child care is expensive and maternity leave short. Most single mothers are excluded from medical insurance and social welfare payments. Some women worry giving birth could hurt their careers.

Ironic isn't it, your're making a living but you're basically forced to live life less. I should say that married males , especially those with young children, tend to put off employers too since they'll most likely prioritize the kid more than the job. I wonder when will the world realize that we're not living sustainably.

Japan, Germany and some other rich countries face the same challenge of supporting aging populations with fewer workers. But they can draw on decades of investment in factories, technology and foreign assets.

Until when, though? When the current workforce isn't replenished in the coming generations, who will man them? It would be good if they'd allow foreign workers to fill those in.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

China's retirement age is 55!? Wow. That's, uh, pretty cool. Maybe I'll get a job there when I'm 54.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Chinese regulators talk about raising the official retirement age of 55 to increase the pool of workers.

55 is nice. Plenty of time to do all you would like to do.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

Not too far down the road China is going to be facing what Japan is going through now.

10 ( +14 / -4 )

Aging populations are fine. They grow old and pass. The long-term end result is less people, and that is for the best!

1 ( +10 / -9 )

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