Japan Today
world

Global fertility rate to keep plummeting, major study warns

38 Comments

The requested article has expired, and is no longer available. Any related articles, and user comments are shown below.

© 2024 AFP

©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.

38 Comments
Login to comment

The doomsayers must finally be happy.

-7 ( +6 / -13 )

 "Once nearly every country's population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth."

This is kind of a logical contradiction. If every country's population is going to be shrinking then where are the immigrants going to be coming from?

10 ( +11 / -1 )

She pointed out that the Lancet study predicts the global fertility rate will fall below replacement levels around 2030, "whereas the U.N. predicts this to occur around 2050".

Good. Our planet wouldn’t benefit from more people.

9 ( +14 / -5 )

Today we report about "plummeting" birth rates.

Tomorrow we report about global overpopulation.

Rinse. Repeat.

3 ( +15 / -12 )

“Fertility rate” sounds like a measurement of fertility. Should call it “reproduction”.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

Aaron JToday  01:34 pm JST

“Fertility rate” sounds like a measurement of fertility. Should call it “reproduction”.

In reply to myself…. It’s got a name “birth rate”. Duh

5 ( +6 / -1 )

This is how the environment fights back.

Endocrine disrupting chemicals: Impact on human health, wildlife and the environment

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10424550/

0 ( +3 / -3 )

"Major study warns"

A warning sounds negative. Why should population decline always be considered a negative? Sure, economic growth might not be sustainable, but again, why must we always have economic growth? Are humans incapable of inhabiting a planet that doesn't have long term economic growth? Seems humans did just fine for thousands of years before an "economy" was invented.

I suppose a "warning" could be considered positive if it gives countries time to prepare in advance. Changing immigration (and emigration) policies, pension distribution and collection, and other social changes/policies.

This is kind of a logical contradiction. If every country's population is going to be shrinking then where are the immigrants going to be coming from?

I would imagine that people in "developing countries" even with low birth rates, they'll want to emigrate to developed countries. I would imagine that people will still want to flee places with low quality of living standards, education, health care, etc. In fact, things might even get worse in those countries if there is a population decline.

What we might actually see in the future is a population shift where wealthy folk from developed countries (Europe, North America) begin moving to developing countries for retirement (warm climate) and visa versa with people from developing countries moving to the developed countries. Its already happening of course on a smaller scale. Just look at all the Americans that flee to Florida and Arizona for retirement. The boomer generation is just getting started with this.

8 ( +9 / -1 )

What we might actually see in the future is a population shift where wealthy folk from developed countries (Europe, North America) begin moving to developing countries for retirement (warm climate) and visa versa with people from developing countries moving to the developed countries.

Good point. There are already retirement clusters from the US in Mexico, Costa Rica and so on, and I understand some Japanese retire to Philippines and Thailand. As pensions shrink this may become a necessity to survive.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

The citizens of the world have consciously made the decision to de-populate the globe. They have decided that the environmental strain, the scarcity of resources and lack of housing and space are negatively affecting their quality of life. Future generations will be very grateful.

Well done, citizens of the world!

2 ( +6 / -4 )

During this century, fertility rates will continue to increase in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they tumble in wealthier, aging nations.

you know why all this happen? because they need not to pay tax, because after this they can just smuggling to Western countries to enjoy the free education, free medical service, free unemployment benefits, based on the tax money you and me paid. The border basically never exist, maybe in the coming years somebody will even put a "welcome" signboard there

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

Per capita income is the only meaningful measure. A falling GNP met with a more rapidly falling population would be a plus for all involved.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

Best possible news and the only survival chance for mankind and the earth. Less people. Much less people. Back to maximum 3 billion. Overpopulation is the only cause of our problems and all the rest are symptoms.

economists will tell us to panic but they must be ignored. Our model based on expansion is doomed. The earth is limited in space and resources.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

Today we report about "plummeting" birth rates.

Tomorrow we report about global overpopulation.

It's all so confusing, isn't it? I don't know if I should be coming or going.

6 ( +6 / -0 )

During this century, fertility rates will continue to increase in developing countries, particularly those in sub-Saharan Africa, even as they tumble in wealthier, aging nations.

Looks like I know who will replace me, albeit temporarily, then. Good luck to them. Can the make a worse job of running the place than the recent incumbents?

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Today we report about "plummeting" birth rates.

Tomorrow we report about global overpopulation.

I envy you the moment when it hits you that those two are not incongruous.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

They say this like it's a bad thing! The population of the planet is already unsustainable. Just because big business wants us to breed like rabbits and consume ourselves to extinction doesn't make it right! Nature will find a way! The human race is not that special ..

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

Too much money printing by G-7 Govt., driving Global Inflation and High Prices. Biden increased US money supply by a historic approx. 50% in 2021, triggering rapid rise in US interest rates and Global inflation, by destroying currencies across world, including Yen.

People having tough surviving, let alone having kids sadly. G-7 Govt. out of control deficit spending not 'Free'. No surprise world rushing to de-dollarize & join BRICS.

-9 ( +1 / -10 )

Best possible news and the only survival chance for mankind and the earth. Less people. Much less people. Back to maximum 3 billion. Overpopulation is the only cause of our problems and all the rest are symptoms.

Yes, we should be back at 3 billion by about 2400. Falling birthrate is essentially irrelevant, because the main driver of population growth is and has been increasing life expectancy. Folks aren't dieing anything like as fast as they used to. In pre war Japan, it was about 45.

With no change in behaviour, it seems nailed on that Tokyo will be underwater by 2400. Most coastal cities and some entire countries too. If this does not create all-out war and/or destroy the financial system, you never know, the world might be a more pleasant place. They may still be making SUVs.

5 ( +7 / -2 )

Outbreak of conflict under Biden Admin, especially Ukraine Proxy War and talk of WW III, $expensive global arm's race, historic global weapons proliferation by Russia to China, NK, Iran, Belarus & their MANY proxies etc.

Plus, escalating Mid-East conflict, rising risk of Taiwan and PI conflict with China, heightened and rising global terror risk according to US FBI Director Wray etc.

ANYONE think above risks contribute to Global Fertility? Rather just the opposite, hence the decline.

-10 ( +0 / -10 )

Elon Musk once said that Japan had no bright future unless its declining birth rate was somehow addressed. I opined in a kind of a rejoinder against him that the problem was not Japan's alone. This article seems to support my contention.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

As current population of 8 billion, a declining birth rate seems logical.

I for one will not have any kids and I'm happy with my decision.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

HopeSpringsEternalToday 04:32 pm JST

Outbreak of conflict under Biden Admin, especially Ukraine Proxy War and talk of WW III, $expensive global arm's race, historic global weapons proliferation by Russia to China, NK, Iran, Belarus & their MANY proxies etc.

Plus, escalating Mid-East conflict, rising risk of Taiwan and PI conflict with China, heightened and rising global terror risk according to US FBI Director Wray etc.

ANYONE think above risks contribute to Global Fertility? Rather just the opposite, hence the decline.

Still Putin's War. Also still yet to find a country de-dollarizing.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Good!

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Global wars and inflation are EVERYONE's Problem, as both key factors contributing to Global Fertility Dropping.

BRICS, clear response to Global Wars and Inflation that are fundamentally US in nature. Most countries want babies, thus do not want wars & inflation stemming from US policies. BRICS policy = de-dollarization.

No surprise BRICS growing like a WEED, as most people want children, not wars and inflation after all. BRICS countries now actively trading and transacting without $.

-9 ( +1 / -10 )

HopeSpringsEternalToday 05:27 pm JST

Global wars and inflation are EVERYONE's Problem, as both key factors contributing to Global Fertility Dropping.

BRICS, clear response to Global Wars and Inflation that are fundamentally US in nature. Most countries want babies, thus do not want wars & inflation stemming from US policies. BRICS policy = de-dollarization.

No surprise BRICS growing like a WEED, as most people want children, not wars and inflation after all. BRICS countries now actively trading and transacting without $.

Still Putin's War. Also still no country de-dollarizing.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Woah sounds like those advanced nations should become more open to immigration, instead of demonizing it constantly.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

BRICS addressed falling fertility at their latest meeting. They attributed it to in part US based inflation driving up US interest rates, adversely impacting global currencies like the Yen, and world at war in various hotspots.

BRICS Members are seeking safe haven from US $. China buying oil without dollars from Saudi, Iran and Russia. India as well. It's just getting started. These countries want more babies, NOT US based inflation.

BRICS seeks Membership by 2100 of +80% of world's population, even 90%. Their policy, Member currency, no $USD. They appeal to countries ravaged by $ based inflation. All interested countries want more babies!

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

Problem is no society can have sound consumption with a falling birth rate, aging and of course depopulation which happens sooner or later. War and inflation destroy consumer confidence and thus cause falling birth rates.

Old people hardly consume, except medical services, middle aged people in collapsing demographic environment, tend to save too much because of fear and not invest in society, including kids.

Vicious cycle, leading to steadily less consumption and investment. Younger people become afraid to get married, have kids etc. For world's population, core problem is inflation and wars being generated by US.

Thus, BRICS helping countries escape this US inflation cycle and, in the process become multi-polar, so far less controlled by US policy and soft power intimidation. It's a far better world, that will have more babies as result.

President Putin one of Chief Architects of BRICS, his #1 motivation's more kids, he tells this to all countries interested in joining BRICS. Why Russia's so aggressively pushing world to join BRICS partnership model. No surprise, US none too thrilled with Putin's BRICS agenda, that's de-dollarization at its core.

-8 ( +1 / -9 )

The root cause of famine, water shortages, climate change and war is over population.

I see nothing but good news here.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

The root cause of famine, water shortages, climate change and war is over population.

This wasn’t true in 1843, and it isn’t true now.

-2 ( +2 / -4 )

Very few comments above understand the issue here.

With birth rates so low, any war would inflict a massive population drop, same with virus pandemic, or any such event. It also means an inversed age pyramid for all generations, so young will have to work for more people than themselves !

With less people, less world progress development and discoveries in the long term (less than 20 years!).

There is no balancing forecast with population not leveling out in any way !

At the present time, only rural Japan is hit but soon mid cities will be severely hit.

So far, this comes from the fact many think government will come to rescue if anything happens. With such mind, bankruptcies will popup everywhere.

Also the fact not to consider a large family (3 kids or more) positively is leading to our own species failure.

I wonder if it is a natural way of dying for a planet civilisation, explaining absence of other civilisations.

-2 ( +3 / -5 )

When the governments control people lifestyles they also control their mindset to procreate!

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

The future in some places is going to be just a bunch of old people desiring and needing services from a dwindling number of very busy young people. These young people will be in demand, driving up their compensation. The olds will feel poorer by comparison, especially compared with earlier in their life when services and the people providing them were more plentiful.

There will be a lot of old folks wanting to talk to an ever-smaller number of managers.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

Of course technological and other efficiencies will help to mitigate some of the effects of this spiral, which we are already seeing. Young people will probably want to be around other young people, as they do.

3 ( +4 / -1 )

Good news!!..

Bring less kids to this crazy world...

Adopt more pets..

LOL

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

In 50 or so years from now, the developed economies are going to be competing for immigrants.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

@Aly

I don't thnk so. Those economies will have defaulted way before. It is just unsustainable if it is on a planetary scale.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Login to leave a comment

Facebook users

Use your Facebook account to login or register with JapanToday. By doing so, you will also receive an email inviting you to receive our news alerts.

Facebook Connect

Login with your JapanToday account

User registration

Articles, Offers & Useful Resources

A mix of what's trending on our other sites