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© Copyright 2020 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.GOP slowly gaining as early vote total surpasses 2016
By NICHOLAS RICCARDI and ANGELIKI KASTANIS WASHINGTON©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.
82 Comments
Graham DeShazo
The article headline is grossly misleading. The Republicans are not “gaining”, they are “narrowing the gap” (and moderately at that).
Hervé L'Eisa
The main takeaway is that ~86% of Democrats have already voted, whereas only ~14% of registered Republicans have. That also ignores the elephant in the room , the "shy" Trump supporters who are not included in the polling numbers but are showing up at the Trump rallies in DROVES.
Biden was correct to say this weekend that the democrats have developed the largest voter fraud organization in history (his own words).
PTownsend
Can you provide a link for your stats? Qanon? RT? Breitbart? The article doesn't mention the stats you used.
dagon
I see a "red mirage" : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mirage-explainer-idUSKBN2771CL .
Trump declares an early victory on election night, as mail-in ballots are counted and he falls behind he moves to the courts to stop vote counting.
bass4funk
Millions of conservatives as well as my friends and members in my family across the country absolutely don’t trust the mail in voting whatsoever and went to the polling stations to do it the old reliable and verified way.
Hervé L'Eisa
Can you provide a link for your stats? Qanon? RT? Breitbart? The article doesn't mention the stats you used.
Well, Biff, you can do your own homework. RT and Breitbart are both far more reliable than the rabid left "news" that you likely ascribe.
Graham DeShazo
The good thing about early voting is that those votes are now in the bank. They can’t be taken away. And they are not subject to the circumstances on election day such as inclement weather, sudden viral surges, etc.
And there is as much evidence for “shy Trump voters” as there is for pizzagate, which is to say none.
FL is indeed close but as 538 said yesterday (paraphrasing here), we are long past the point where margin of error explains differences in support among the candidates. In other words, the closer to election day, the less likely that margin of error is an excuse.
Biden’s lead has been stable and persistent for the last several months, which is why the Trump campaign is there daily. They know they are behind. They know if they lose FL, they can turn off the lights and go home.
StevieJ
Right, despite evidence that voter fraud via mail in ballots is not a major concern?
I guess all those military servicemembers who are deployed/overseas who vote by mail are committing mass voter fraud....
Peter Neil
Trump's strategy is to take away the mail in votes through a 6-3 tilted Supreme Court by claiming the mail was not secure.
He had his corrupt Postmaster General dismiss the postal police last week who oversee the security of sealed large mail trucks and containers.
A two-bit, tin pot dictator move by a draft-dodging con man supported by the tens of millions of Americans who have an IQ under 90.
Peter Neil
Stalin and despots always support free elections.
They just wanted to be in control of counting the votes.
Ah_so
I don't understand your reasoning. Given that opinion polls suggest that a majority of the electorate will vote Biden and he will easily win the popular vote, your reasoning would suggest that over 65 million votes had already been cast for Biden. So not a "takeaway", poor calculation.
Although there is no statistical evidence for shy Trump supporters - I will give some credibility to this - I think that a relatively high percentage of those declaring as "don't know" in polling will be Trump voters. In states where the Biden lead is narrow, I think Trump may get in.
However, I think it is extremely unlikely that that those same people are then attending Trump rallies. The rally goers are the true Trump fans.
bass4funk
I’m not talking about Japan, focus, focus.
Graham DeShazo
Headline of the day “White House signals defeat in pandemic as outbreak roils Pence’s office”
Medows says We can’t contain this virus. Rounding the corner indeed.
No Mark, YOU can’t contain the virus because you’re complicit. That’s why your going to be voted out quite soon.
lincolnman
Well, I'd have to say that's true...
Given all the Repubs at the Rose Garden super-spreader event and now five in Pence's office, they're definitely leading in the "we have COVID" race...
Winning!
Ah_so
Whoever wins, this has turned out to be the most fascinating election ever. Am enjoying every minute of it, particularly on Japan Today. Quite unlike anything I or anyone has ever seen before. And election day may be far from the end of things if Trump declares the election rigged.
But it is sad how utterly divided the country has become
Blacklabel
Dems are nowhere near far enough ahead at this point compared to last time (which they also lost)
Graham DeShazo
Um, no. According to Harry Enron, Biden is far ahead of where Clinton was in 16. And Trump is not catching up to Biden where as at this point in 16 Trump was closing ground on Clinton.
Facts, as they say, are hard things to overcome. And basing your hopes on ridiculous conspiracy theories is not a sound strategy.
Graham DeShazo
Zichi,
It varies by state. My home state of Kansas has told us that mail-in ballots have zero chance of making it in time.
We can send ballots via e-mail, scan or fax. We have to also submit a waiver waiving the right to a secret ballot. I also included a copy of my passport and valid KS driver’s license just to be safe.
SuperLib
Awesome. I mailed mine in. I've checked my state's tracking website to confirm that my vote was received and counted.
I hope your family enjoyed the COVID exposure and waiting in line.
yakyak
Just wait until all the silent Republicans come out to vote on voting day. The Dems won't know what hit them.
Sneezy
And then show up in hospital with Covid in similar numbers.
itsonlyrocknroll
There are a number of proposals that could be affecting voter intentions. How Presidential candidates’ policies are reflected in the polls is difficult to ascertain/analyze.
Both Presidential debates did not really cut to the heart to consequences of both President Trump or Joe Biden tax proposals/policies
Especially Joe Biden.
So, it might be smart to view below a detailed analysis.
Details and Analysis of Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden’s Tax Plan
https://taxfoundation.org/joe-biden-tax-plan-2020/
Both President Trump or Joe Biden will not be able to expect the same tax revenue from Big Tech, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon.
The EU, plus at least 8 member states will be leveraging tax on all four global revenues. A forecast of between 3/5 % would be feasible assumption.
This will reduce all four balance significantly.
Impacting Joe Biden and Donald Trumps ability to raise tax.
So, I would expect Joe Biden's pledge to peg the revenue changes at $400,000, to change significantly.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would enact a number of policies that would raise taxes on individuals with income above $400,000, including raising individual income, capital gains, and payroll taxes. Biden would also raise taxes on corporations by raising the corporate income tax rate and imposing a corporate minimum book tax.
It is perfectly conceivable, that $400,000 number will land in the realms of between $150/200,000.
bass4funk
If they got it they’ll be fine as the numbers are showing. Don’t give in to the fear.
Blacklabel
Love how the people who had a supposed 92% chance to win (but lost) again try to claim there aren’t Trump voters just waiting until Election Day to go vote.
SuperLib
Are you going to mai in your vote again?
Graham DeShazo
yak yak,
In 2016, 125 million votes were cast. In 2020, we are on track for between 150-160 million. As the GOP is the party of voter suppression, there is no universe in which this is good news for Trump.
Did he magically get more popular to the tune of 12.5 to 15 million assuming, (and this is a BIG assumption) that 1/2 of the extra votes are his?
The data says no. Trump has never cracked a greater than 50% approval rating in 4 years as president. Not once! He is currently 22 points under water. This would strongly imply that a majority of the extra votes are for Biden
The GOP has openly tried to suppress the vote because it’s the only way Don wins. Slow down the postal system, launch multiple - mostly unsuccessful lawsuits, cut down on polling locations, attempt to intimidate voters in early voting, limit drop-off boxes, etc., etc., etc.....
And it’s all failed. Fortunately, Trump is as incompetent at voter suppression as he is at business, governance, and basic English syntax.
There will likely be 25-35 million more voters this year. Trump’s population of voters is declining. That spells bad news for the GOP up and down the ballot.
Blacklabel
You really think that 80 million people will vote for Joe Biden? Suuuuure.
bass4funk
Done.
Attilathehungry
In the meantime, former VP Biden has yet again 'called a lid' on the day's campaigning. This may be a wise strategy politically, but it really doesn't bode well for a future potential Biden presidency. You don't get to 'call a lid' on world affairs or crises.
Graham DeShazo
Black,
regardless of what the final number actually is, all signs point to both a popular vote and Electoral College victory.
And just to head you off there, this is not 16, Joe is running above 50% and is above water, and Trump has proven himself woefully inept.
No amount of snark is going to change that, but as the available data is against you, I guess that’s all you have left.
SuperLib
Biden isn't Clinton when it comes to likeability. And there's no FBI announcement in the last week of the campaigning about an investigation. FiveThirtyEight said that tossed the election to Trump.
Not impossible for Trump to win, but nothing like Clinton.
Blacklabel
There is simply no way that Joe Biden will get 54% of a national vote of 150 million people who will supposedly vote.
you are seriously telling me that there are millions of New voters who were not willing to vote for Hillary against Trump but will come out and vote for Joe?
He is down with Black voters, down with Hispanic voters and the 10% more Dem voters than Republicans that the polls use is simply inaccurate.
Sneezy
Millions of people were not of age during the last election. I hope this has been helpful.
egads man!
Sneezy is right. Anyone who was between the ages of 14 and 17 in 2016 will be of legal age to vote in 2020.
Blacklabel
And these young people will vote for Biden enough to give him another 15 million votes more than Trump gets? Sure thing.
Graham DeShazo
Yes. that is what I am telling you. Perhaps not 54%, but Joe is on track to win the popular and electoral college.
And, no. Joe is not “down” with African Americans or Hispanics (or women, or college educated whites, or seniors, or Gen Z....I could go on). In fact he is winning EVERY age, race and gender demographic other than non-college educated white men (desperately trying not to make the obvious observation here...)
Quite simply, for you to be right, EVERY high-quality poll for the last year would have to be wrong. Every job approval survey would have to be wrong, OR a majority of those that disapprove would have to turn around and vote for him which is laughable on its face.
In addition, according to those pesky scientific polls you so abhor, EVEN if Trump ran the table (which is highly unlikely) in FL, IA, GA, AZ, NC and OH (Fun fact: Biden is leading in 5 of the 6 albeit narrowly), he would still be 14 EC votes short He would have to flip PA, or WI and MI. Bad news for Trump (and you), Joe’s lead is outside the margin of error in all three and seems remarkably stable.
I suppose things could magically change in the coming days. I suppose that I could also become a space shuttle pilot Both are equally likely.
Sneezy
No, I don't think that.
egads man!
Honestly, because of electoral college the number of voters doesn't matter in solid blue and solid red states. They will be their respective colors regardless. It's the swing states and light blue/light red states that matter the most.
So even if "another 15 million votes" are added, if they're democratic votes in California or New York, or republican votes in Texas or Mississippi, they won't matter. If those votes are cast in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. they can tip the election one way or another.
Graham DeShazo
Sneezy,
Including both of my daughters, both of whom have voted.
Unlike previous generations, Gen-Z is not only the most educated and ethnically diverse in American history; they are also the most politically engaged. This makes “some people” very nervous...
lincolnman
Hmmmm.......
*The Trump administration signaled on Sunday** that it had given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, even as Covid-19 makes its second run through the White House, three in four Americans are concerned that they or someone they know will contract the disease, and millions of American families are suffering as negotiators struggle to clinch an elusive relief deal.*
“We’re not going to control the pandemic,” White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/25/white-house-chief-of-staff-controlpandemic-432236
Graham DeShazo
egads man,
You are very correct. The electoral college is all that matters. As I mentioned below, Biden is leading (albeit narrowly) in 5 of the 6 current battleground states In addition, he is leading beyond the margin of error in all 3 “blue wall” states
If as you pondered, all the extra votes were coming in NY, CA, MA etc., it would not matter. But again, the pesky pesky data indicates that a very large part of the additional votes (vs 16) are coming in FL, GA, PA, NC. There is no scenario in which this is good news for Trump.
bass4funk
Is that the new liberal talking point for this week?
They don’t have to announce it, but the assigned case number is evidence of that already
Well, the Dems didn’t do a massive mail in voting campaign like this year.
Jimizo
You can just play golf, hold rallies and tweet trash instead of attending to these vital matters.
Blacklabel
Well fortunately we have an election next week to settle this once and for all.
It’s quite easy for Trump to win all these states: FL, IA, GA, AZ, NC and OH. I’m amazed that Dems think he won’t.
Attilathehungry
Jimizo that's right... Trump did nothing on world affairs.
Except get 3 muslim countries to make peace with Israel.
Except sign a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico.
Except bring American troops home.
Except move the US Embassy in Israel to the actual capital of the country.
Except start relations with North Korea (seen any missiles fly overhead lately?).
Except make the other NATO countries pay their fair share for collective defense.
Except kill several high profile terrorists (al-Baghdadi, enjoy your time in hell).
...just off the top of my caffeine deprived head.
Graham DeShazo
Black,
If it’s so easy, why is he losing 5 out of 6 and up by a single point in OH?
Blacklabel
Polls are wrong, oversampled Democrats. Just like in 2016. Didn’t Trump win all those states last time?
this week you will see all the national polls go down from 10 to 14 point leads to 5 or less. So that the polls can claim they weren’t so wrong when Trump wins.
Jimizo
Your claim is that Biden wouldn’t get anything done because he ‘calls a lid‘ on things. Everyone calls a lid on things. Don’t you? Trump heads out to the golf course, holds bioterror events and tweets idiocy and trash.
Biden might have a cup of tea instead.
plasticmonkey
Why wouldn’t they just do this from the beginning then?
To claim that polls may not be entirely accurate is one thing. To claim they are deliberately skewed makes no sense. What possible benefit would there be?
Toasted Heretic
3 ultra rich countries. It's all about the resources.
And renege on other deals that benefited the whole world, not just the Americas.
Nope, still all over the place. Especially here.
Jerusalem is a highly significant place to Palestinians and it was completely insensitive to do so. This will sadly have repercussions some time down the road.
Yup. Not literally, obviously, because most people here don't get to see them close up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51701731
They're still building and launching missiles.
This hasn't happened, though. And since the US likes to remind us that it's the leader of the free world etc, the leader should shoulder the burden. Given also that it starts or has a hand in most conflicts.
Not to mention former allies like Soleiani.
And allowing MBS to get away with murdering a journalist.
Vote this terrorist out of the White House.
Graham DeShazo
Ah, the polls are wrong! How could I be so thoughtless.....
After 4 years of professional pollsters adjusting their models to account for 16 (when they were within the margin of error anyway), sampling, testing, tweaking, taking into account sampling bias....
Every high quality poll conducted over the last year is wrong. It’s all so clear now!
And the job approval ratings and favorable impression ratings: ALL WRONG! Trump has never reached 50% in 4 years and is currently 22 PTs. Under water (Yet another fun fact(s) Biden is above water by a point which Hillary never was AND is at 50% or more in several of the battleground states.). They are all some kind of SUPER-DUPER Deep State.....
Yeah, that makes TOTAL sense.
Attilathehungry
Actually, it might be better if Biden DID call a lid on foreign affairs if/when he gets elected. He has been wrong on virtually every foreign affairs issue since he got to Washington. Wrong on the Iraq war, wrong on killing bin Laden, wrong on China, wrong on the Gulf War back in '91,.... so yeah, I'll give you that one.
lincolnman
Could have oversampled Democrats - hard to find any Repubs and Trump supporters that aren't on a ventilator in the ICU...
Did you get that directly from Putin?
Blacklabel
Same as last time. To try to make everyone think your candidate is winning.
That way when they lose, you can claim it was rigged or something because you were "winning" the whole time.
Blacklabel
Have they done any of that? seems not. they are still running polls with 41% Dems and 32% Repubs when we know that is not the composition of the voters.
Graham DeShazo
Yes. Yes they have. It’s a well-known and documented fact if you read.
Jimizo
You believe it’s rigged. You are on board with Trump’s unfounded conspiracy theory that 3 million illegals voted in 2016.
Has this clearly rigged system been fixed? There surely must be other flaws in it which benefit or deprive both sides.
lincolnman
Who is "calling it a lid" on the virus? Waving the white flag? Admitting defeat? Given up?
The Trump administration signaled on Sunday that it had given up on controlling the spread of the coronavirus, We’re not going to control the pandemic,” White House chief of staff Mark Meadows told CNN’s Jake Tapper on “State of the Union.”*
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/25/white-house-chief-of-staff-controlpandemic-432236
Less than two weeks before an election and the Trump admin admits they have failed and are giving up on addressing the No. 1 issue that Americans vote on....
Bye-Don....
Graham DeShazo
To try to make everyone think your candidate is winning.
THANK YOU! You just summed up, in one (reasonably) coherent sentence for the Trump campaign continuing to hold super-spreader events in a pandemic including with a principle who’s been in close contact with an infected person.
bass4funk
Well, I guess liberals can’t complain about imaginary voter suppression since their President won twice.
Blacklabel
Still amazes me that liberals think Joe Biden will get 10 million more votes than Barack Obama did in 2008.
Graham DeShazo
I’ll be here win or lose.
I take comfort in the fact that money, betting and yes, scientific polling says there’s a 91% chance that I’m right.
I’ll take those odds.
Graham DeShazo
And Bass, please....
Voter suppression is the wholly-owned subsidiary of the GOP. From the activist Scalia decision striking down the bi-partisanly approved voter rights act (so much for legislative deference...), to laughed out of court challenges over counting mail-in ballots, a freak-show PR scam on non-existent voter fraud, to limiting drop boxes to one per county regardless of population.
One party wants to make it easier for all Americans to vote because that’s representative Democracy. One party wants to make it harder to vote (and says so out loud) because when minorities and less wealthy Americans vote, they lose.
Fortunately, Trump is as incompetent at voter suppression as he is at business, negotiations, governing or basic English syntax.
Peter Neil
It's interesting that this election is heading for a record turnout, but only a 65% turnout of eligible voters.
egads man!
Wouldn't it make more sense that, if the polls are skewed, they're skewed for democrats in order to get more republicans out and vote, therefore the polls are heavily biased toward republicans.
Don't you think a higher democrat polling rate would instead make democrats complacent? If the polls were supposedly democrat sympathizers, wouldn't they skew the polls to be in favor of republicans in order to wake democrats out of complacency and go out to vote?
lincolnman
That's called surrendering - with less than two weeks before the election....and COVID is the No. 1 issue....
Meadows either sunk the Trump Titanic on purpose or he just made the biggest gaffe of the campaign...(by telling the truth)
He'll now get the "Mattis treatment" - going from hero to scum in one second....
Sneezy
Do you think that people claiming that elections are rigged is a bad thing?
Simon Foston
Graham DeShazoToday 12:42 pm JST
Just wait for some supposedly "smart" one-line comeback about Democrats.
Zaphod
Most likely scenario is the "red mirage" that some think tanks are predicting.
I.e. Trump wins on election day, and then they keep finding all these miraculous "mail votes", until suddenly the media party wins.
My only prediction is that there will be a lot of brouhaha and it will be decided by the courts.
bob
This right here is an example of the bubble leftists find themselves in where they can't understand when things happen that shouldn't have happened. Their sole news intake is CNN, CNBC, NBC and Salon, all of whom won't report on anything that even remotely goes against the agreed upon narrative.
Blacklabel
it hasnt been verified, scream the media.
Have you tried to verify it? No, because its not verified.
Sneezy
Herve: 86% of Democrat have voted, 14% of Republicans have.
PTownsend: What's your source for that?
bob: You'd know the source if you stopped watching CNN. No, I'm not going to give you the source.
Sneezy
The winner is often not decided on the day of the election, but after all the votes are counted. I think this is a good thing.
I think the USPS is impressive, too, but I think "miraculous" is taking things a bit far.
Blacklabel
why do I see video of Kamala Harris illegally campaigning at a polling station if Biden is so obviously ahead?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1320426001118023680
Blacklabel
Pres Support By Those Who Haven't Voted Yet:
Florida:
Trump: 59%
Biden: 40%
Georgia:
Trump: 54%
Biden: 44%
North Carolina:
Trump: 58%
Biden: 41%
CBS/YouGov / October 23, 2020 / Online