NATO rules out policing no-fly zone over war-hit Ukraine

I wonder what NATO will do if Russia or Russian backed rebels shoot down another commercial airline. I bought a ticket to go to the US last month. I pay 2000 dollars for direct flight both ways. Or I could pay 1000 to go through Frankfurt with an 18hr stopover or pay 1400 for a stopover in Dubai for 10 hrs.

Even though I wanted to save money, I took the direct flight in the opposite direction to avoid any unwanted missile attacks. Also, the longer the flight means I will need to eat or drink on the plane. I am not taking my mask off for any reason with COVID still rampant on any flights. Nothing will make me stay in quarantine longer than necessary.

Russia is still delivering gas to Europe and being paid for it.

And the US. They made exceptions to the sanctions.

quercetum

Ukraine cannot withstand six months.

People mentioning the "Christian' west, need to recall Russia is also Christian, and Putin has described himself as "Christian".

BIden funds the Russia....... last year Biden administration bought 240 million barrels of oil from Russia.. still keep buying even today folks 

No. Last year US refiners imported 90,000 barrels of oil from Russia and the US government has no control over this unless the government makes a decision to embargo Russian oil. There are two or three refineries on the US gulf coast that used to belong to Citgo, a Venezuelan company that refined Venezuelan crude at US refineries into motor fuels for sale in the US. They once had gas stations all over the US. A number of years ago the US imposed an embargo on Venezuela and forced Citgo to divest their gas stations and refineries in the US. The refineries were built to use the kind of sour, high tar and high sulfur oil that comes from Venezuela. Deprived of their usual feed stock the new owners of those refineries chose to buy similar quality crude from Russia. Not the President of the US but the owners of those refineries made that choice. The alternative was to rebuild the refineries at great cost to refine a different grade of crude oil. Until a week and a half ago there was no really good reason to embargo Russian oil. It is still not illegal. Oil refiners buy oil from whatever source is least expensive to them that suits the specifics of their refinery. Unless it is illegal to do business in a country why wouldn't they? Now it will probably become illegal to buy Russian oil but those refiners have apparently already found substitutes for at least 150,000 barrels of sour crude formerly imported from Russia.

Unfortunately, declaring a no-fly zone in Ukraine would escalate the war to one between the US and Russia. That's WWIII. It's also not a US national security issue, as heinous as it is.

I completely agree.

When Ukraine and it's allies kick the Russians out of Ukraine - and that will happen eventually, THEN CRIMEA MUST ALSO BE RETURNED TO UKRAINE! Winning their freedom isn't worth it if Crimea isn't also returned.

Sadly, as things are progressing, I don’t think that will happen anytime soon. I don’t see that happening in our lifetime now.

People mentioning the "Christian' west, need to recall Russia is also Christian, and Putin has described himself as "Christian".

https://www.resetdoc.org/story/illiberal-far-right-aleksandr-dugin-conversation/

In fact, "Putin's Steve Bannon" gives his motivation as Christian nationalism.

Putting that vast convoy out in the open was a power flex by Putin.

Describing a huge traffic jam of trucks that have run out of gas and can’t move is a power flex by Putin is kind of funny.

I guess gridlock on LA freeways are a Biden power move too then?

NATO as well as U.S. are not helping Ukraine militarily. Consequently, Ukraine is helpless. Russia knowing it invaded Ukraine without worries. Economic sanctions cannot halt Russia's advances.

Vice President Kamala Harris will travel to Warsaw, Poland and Bucharest, Romania March 9-11. Her visit will demonstrate the strength and unity of the NATO Alliance and U.S. support for NATO’s eastern flank allies in the face of Russian aggression. It will also highlight our collective efforts to support the people of Ukraine.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/04/statement-by-deputy-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-on-vice-president-harriss-travel-to-poland-and-romania-2/

A no fly zone equals WW3. Probably no nukes but still WW3. If only Ukraine had implemented the Minsk 2 agreements.

The world is now being prepared for the inevitable.

The religious element is actually important to understand. Putin isn’t just Christian, he is Russian Orthodox Christian. This seems to play an important part in his ideology, since Ukraine is also Orthodox and part of this war from his view also involves subjugating the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which separated from the Russian one a few years ago, to Moscow. 

None of this makes much sense to the outsider, but its an important part of his ultra Russian nationalist ideology that helps explain why he is going ahead with this stupid war that seems to entirely go against his self interest otherwise. Its scary crap when you read about it.

Good point.

News reports out of Ukraine stating that Syrian and Chechen volunteers are joining the Ukrainians civil defence forces.

Last year US refiners imported 90,000 barrels of oil from Russia and the US government has no control over this unless the government makes a decision to embargo Russian oil. 

I think Hawaii gets some of its crude from Russia.

Stoltenberg lies. It was NATO who brought human suffering and destruction at a scale not seen in Europe since WWII - to the people of Yugoslavia.

Deliberately ignoring the reasons NATO entered the Balkans War. NATOs mission began with enforcing a UN mandated no-fly zone over the Balkans along with naval monitoring of all vessels entering Balkan waters to search for violators of the UN arms embargo imposed on the opposing sides. The Serbs continued to escalate the violence against Croats and Bosnians and the UN eventually authorized NATO to engage the Serbs from the air and on the ground. Little atrocities like the siege of Sarajevo, the attack on Gorazde and the massacre at Srebrenica just to name a couple of the barbarities the Serbs committed. Not NATO, but the Serbs. NATO forces operated under the authority of the UN Secretary General and a UN appointed military commander who authorized NATO operations.

Russia has a S 400 missile system with a 300 mile radius, encompassing all of Ukrainian and even NATO countries Google Russia S 400 Missile System

NATO functions for NATO members. If you want to join, join. Now would be a good time. Otherwise, learn Russian. Putin is probably insane enough to start WW III if NATO intervene in Ukraine. NATO member Turkey did shoot down a Russian fighter a while back, but that wasn't a NATO action.

Putin's invasion and a new Cold War is good news for most Western leaders.

The UK had been divided by Brexit, the US by Dem/Rep politics and everyone else by the Covid response. With a new external threat, Western governments now have less domestic disunity to deal with.

Much of their action is token. A few big name oligarchs have lost out. Much of their wealth is still available to them courtesy of shell companies and assets set up and protected by Western lawyers. The West has known about this for years and done nothing. UK companies have been undertaking this sort of 'work' for rich Russians for years whilst the British government looked the other way. The ruling Conservative party has had about £2m in donations from Russians.

Russia is still delivering gas to Europe and being paid for it.

Ukraine get a few weapons and some food aid until the Russians complete their occupation.

Then, Western governments can increase 'national security' (by taking greater control of the net, and censoring it more) and go back into Cold War mode.

Most of the hit from taking down globalisation, making the movement of goods, information and people much harder, and shutting out migrant labour has been taken by the everyday economy - shortages of labour, energy, consumer goods and food, and the inflation that follows.

Governments now have two justifications for the economic wreckage they have caused 'taking back control': Covid and Putin.

A few token policies aimed at rich Russians and the environment will be enough to satisfy the general public.

Whilst two years of pandemic restrictions, a new Cold War, the end of globalised supply chains and the gutting of the economy means that there is now little chance of mediating climate change, that is not a problem. Politicians don't have to worry about climate change. Politics is all about the short term. Whatever gets thrown at you, you just need to impress enough of your electorate in how you handle it, and you are fine. You stay in power with your snout in the trough.

Politics is the art of managing the day. Doesn't matter what you promised in the past, nobody remembers. Doesn't matter what the future holds. Just be impressive in front of the cameras when stuff happens, and you will be fine.

Western politicians will improve their public image by condemning Russia and promising sanctions. But they will keep buying Russian gas, ignore all the funny money in shell companies, await the inevitable in Ukraine, sit back and relax. Ten years ago they were looking obsolete in a globalised economy run by corporates chasing consumers. Now they have taken back control. It has been a very impressive revolution.

Putin is happy: He can now go the full Soviet and maybe add other non-NATO countries to his collection. The West has removed itself and its tech products from Russia, so he can more easily control his citizens, North Korean style.

If no Russians can take down Putin, then Ukraine is going to suffer. As for whose side NATO governments are on - you can find out for yourself. If you start crowd-funding the assassination of Putin, they will take it down and probably prosecute you. If you take aim at Russian embassies, they will lock you up. The Japanese government just ticked off the Ukrainian embassy for encouraging volunteers to help them (the UK stance is that only those with military experience should go).

Stoltenberg said, “we are not part of this conflict, and we have a responsibility to ensure that it does not escalate and spread beyond Ukraine,

True. But if the Russians destroy a Ukranian nuclear reactor the escaped radiation isn't going to stop at Ukraine's borders. It will most certaibly be a EU problem on aassive scale that in retrospect might have been prevented.

I support a no-fly zone. There is only speculation about how the war would escalate. But what isn't speculation is an immediate reduction in innocent lives lost.

B-52's are in Hungary. They will not be empty.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1499738225409249281

Unfortunately, declaring a no-fly zone in Ukraine would escalate the war to one between the US and Russia. That's WWIII. It's also not a US national security issue, as heinous as it is.

When Ukraine and it's allies kick the Russians out of Ukraine - and that will happen eventually, THEN CRIMEA MUST ALSO BE RETURNED TO UKRAINE! Winning their freedom isn't worth it if Crimea isn't also returned.

NATO countries refused on Friday to police a no-fly zone over Ukraine, warning that such a move could provoke widespread war in Europe with nuclear power Russia, the organization’s top civilian official said.

Putting that vast convoy out in the open was a power flex by Putin. He saw the convoy of death in Iraq and heard the calls for the US to use all its dearly produced weapons whether F35 ground attack or kinetic bombardment to destroy it.

And nothing could be done.

People mentioning the "Christian' west, need to recall Russia is also Christian, and Putin has described himself as "Christian".

The religious element is actually important to understand. Putin isn’t just Christian, he is Russian Orthodox Christian. This seems to play an important part in his ideology, since Ukraine is also Orthodox and part of this war from his view also involves subjugating the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which separated from the Russian one a few years ago, to Moscow.

None of this makes much sense to the outsider, but its an important part of his ultra Russian nationalist ideology that helps explain why he is going ahead with this stupid war that seems to entirely go against his self interest otherwise. Its scary crap when you read about it.

A no fly zone equals WW3. Probably no nukes but still WW3. If only Ukraine had implemented the Minsk 2 agreements.

NATO . . . Weak and insecure? Yes, in some ways.

Scared as hell of WWIII? Hell yes!

Either you’re all in, or you’re all out when it comes to waging war. You can’t be just a little bit in. Even providing military support to Ukraine might be justification enough for Putin. If NATO does decide to go all in, then they should tell the Russian generals to remove Putin, this war criminal, or face the consequences.

Isn't the on the ground evidence enough? Isn't recent history enough, in Syria, Putin's mad commanders were sending barrages and barrages of bombs and missiles to target one rebel with an RPG, who was long gone by the instruction to strike was relayed. Onky Turkey's NFZ was effective in stopping this. Obama was more than useless, he let civilian deaths perpetuate because of a policy.

Yeah, but in Syria they weren’t trying to enforce a NFZ against an enemy with nuclear weapons. A conflict between superpowers is a whole different ballgame.

This is just extraordinarily dangerous and everyone cheering on the NFZ aren’t addressing the issue of how it can at all be implemented without provoking a direct war between NATO and Russia, which is very likely to spiral out of control very quickly. If that thought doesn’t scare the crap out of you it really should.

I mean, it’s just fortunate that we aren’t in that kind of war already. On the ground Russian tanks are being blown up with American supplied weapons and they know it. And I’m glad NATO is able to provide that support, but the Russians are clearly going to shift their focus to cutting that off at some point, which is going to be extremely dangerous if and when that happens. The last thing this conflict needs is the introduction of more points of potential direct conflict between the superpowers, and that is what a NFZ will do.

I am 100% on Ukraine’s side in this conflict, but I am 100% opposed to this thing turning into a direct war between nuclear armed states.

Ukraine cannot withstand six months.

Are you saying that these sanctions will not help Ukraine？

NATO has and continues to be a defence alliance.

The North Atlantic Treaty

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

The Parties to this Treaty reaffirm their faith in the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and their desire to live in peace with all peoples and all governments.

Never has NATO had any military objectives

Read the treaty

President Putin saw EU slowly expanding as the old Soviet block disintegrating of its own free will.

So Ukraine associate membership was the last straw.

For Putin, war has now turned into a his ultimate nightmare of his own making. The slaughtering innocent families, indiscriminate bombing of the Ukraine's infrastructure has produced a complete turnaround in EU defense policy.

By 2024 Germany will have increased military spending to upwards of 100 billion Euros in advanced military infrastructure.

People mentioning the "Christian' west, need to recall Russia is also Christian, and Putin has described himself as "Christian".

That won't stop the guy.

I support a no-fly zone. There is only speculation about how the war would escalate. But what isn't speculation is an immediate reduction in innocent lives lost.

Damned if you do and damned if you don't, that is a tough one.

The Russians, possibly disappointed with the performance of their own ground forces, are recruiting jihadis from Syria to fight in the Ukraine. Both the Syrian Government and the Wagner Group are actively recruiting Syrians.

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/03/will-russia-turn-syrian-mercenaries-its-ukraine-fight

It only needed the US to reassure Russia that Ukraine would not be invited to join NATO (as it had promised earlier) and none of this would have happened. What we are seeing now is simply the endgame of the plans that started with the US-backed, violent overthrow of the Ukrainian government in 2014.

no fly zone would only prevent air strikes.

Air support can also pick target for ground strikes, deny humanitarian corridors etc. Control of airspace is half the battle. Satellites can only do so much.

Would be interesting to see NATO protect itself against S400, S500 and new S550 missiles.

eh? That was exactly the case in Syria. NFZ stopped Russian (nuke power) strikes.

The situations are eerily similar. Russia plane looking for one guy with RPG, anti-tank etc. and relay target info for strike. Guy runs away by the time strike is launched. Devastation, lost of civilian lives.

Latest Zelensky statement-

https://thehill.com/policy/international/596972-zelensky-slams-nato-over-refusing-to-implement-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine

It’s painful and we see human suffering, we see destruction at a scale we haven’t seen in Europe since the Second World War,” he said

Stoltenberg lies. It was NATO who brought human suffering and destruction at a scale not seen in Europe since WWII - to the people of Yugoslavia. I still remember the issue of the Time magazine with the cover title "Bringing the Serbs to heel. A massive bombing attack opens the door to peace". Why NATO is so unhappy now? The Russians just do the same, they are opening the door to peace through military action against the Ukrainian neonazi regime that for 8 years was killing the people of Donbas. Russians just do it with much more restraint, without the NATO trademark vanton and sensless violence.

Dictatorships are born out of internal conflict and come hand in hand with an abuse of power.

Russian President has total control of every branch of government without any agency to control or administer the break of conscience.

Imprisonment, torture, appalling human right abuses control the population.

All decent is brutally put down.

Any pretence of a constitution, the dictator will have control over every aspect of implementation.

Whist President Putin continues to wield such power, Europe will need to change course drastically.

Europe will need to consider where security policies need to focus.

Ukraine will not hold out indefinitely.

So it is more that a possibility Putin Russia will occupy Ukraine.

So the west will need to have an answer to that.

UChosePoorlyToday  01:47 pm JST

You just made a good case for a nuclear arsenal!

Nope, NATO did!

I support a no-fly zone. There is only speculation about how the war would escalate. But what isn't speculation is an immediate reduction in innocent lives lost.

Actually, the reduction in lives lost is also speculation - even if it worked the no fly zone would only prevent air strikes. The Russian ground forces would not be stopped and they are the ones more likely to cause mass civilian deaths.

I’m very opposed to the idea of a no fly zone. NATO knows the risks involved and I am glad they, unlike Putin, are showing themselves unwilling to play with the risk of WW3. I am very much on the Ukrainian side in this war, but the interest of humanity as a whole I think has to be given much greater weight in decisions that might realistically lead to a nuclear holocaust for all of us.

We need to find a different way of stopping Putin, a no fly zone is just a bad idea.

Of course, it would be WWIII otherwise. This was warned about for years but ignored

The pandemic was the beginning of WWIII.

“Biden is not ready to stop buying the oil from Putin…”

Farid Zacharia made an interesting argument about this the other day. He said that the Russian oil and gas revenues must be taken away. This could be done by increasing production in other ways and by making deals with Iran, Venezuela, etc. Even though this would be controversial, it’s still better than paying billions of dollars to Putin and the oligarchs.

”Kill the goose that lays the golden eggs”, is how he phrased it.

Do not intervene in Ukraine.

Provide an humanitarian support.

If you provide war related equipment, keep it secret.

UN should start thinking about peacekeepers, but will both countries accept it. Not yet I am sure.

What is taking place now in Ukraine is horrific. It’s painful and we see human suffering, we see destruction at a scale we haven’t seen in Europe since the Second World War,”

He forgot about the 90s in the ex-Yougoslavia. NATO also bombed at that time.

Western politicians will improve their public image by condemning Russia and promising sanctions. But they will keep buying Russian gas, ignore all the funny money in shell companies, await the inevitable in Ukraine, sit back and relax. Ten years ago they Western politicians will improve their public image by condemning Russia and promising sanctions. But they will keep buying Russian gas, ignore all the funny money in shell companies, await the inevitable in Ukraine, sit back and relax. Ten years ago they were looking obsolete in a globalised economy run by corporates chasing consumers. Now they have taken back control. It has been a very impressive revolution. looking obsolete in a globalised economy run by corporates chasing consumers. Now they have taken back control. It has been a very impressive revolutio

Right.

Public image is also a key in the actions taken, but not only. I believe some are sincere and want to do more to help Ukraine, but can’t except some economical sanctions.

Are you saying that these sanctions will not help Ukraine？

The sanctions can help IF they're actually effective. But Europe and the world is still paying Russia for energy, and China is still allowed to circumvent trade and settlement sanctions.

Look how well sanctions against Venezuela is doing. Maduro is still laughing courtesy of China.

First NATO builds a wall of countries with it's military members to pressure the Russian invasion of Ukraine and then refuses NATO membership to Ukraine and then refuses a no fly zone.

At least they could make more effort to accommodate evacuation.

But hey -billions of funds in loans and weapons for Ukraine and they stopped putins pipeline and trying to crush his economy.

Which is more evil NATO or Putin ?

NATO is big trouble maker !

I don't particularly agree NFZ will escalate the war. Turkey's NFZ in Syria saved millions of civilian lives. BUT, if NATO wants to choose the narrative (one that has proven ineffective with Putin already) of 'let's not get involved', then so be it (sigh - profoundly idiotic in terms of missed opportunity to send a nessage to Putin). Why not send Ukraine MANPADS then? Ukraine gas asked for them, this is what us going to stop Russua from targeting civilian infrastructures.

The paradox NATO is not logically capable to enforce a no fly zone.

Secondly Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

For over a decade Europe has failed on every level to take it own security seriously.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel is responsible, I would also argue complicit in adopting an energy policy that at the very least brought EU under Putin influence.

UN should start thinking about peacekeepers

UN can do jack all. Russia has veto.

If there is a No Fly zone implemented and any US or NATO ally is targeted by Russia or is attacked and Article 5 is launched, this could get ugly real fast and escalate beyond anyones expectations that would expand and engulf Europe and drag in the US for a deepening war that could destroy Europe and how do we know that is what Putin wants? What if that is the plan all along to lure the US and NATO into a wider conflict where we use a tremendous amount of resources and manpower and China slips through the back door and makes its move on Taiwan, the U.S. would be greatly weakened, less manpower to confront and take on China, that means China would have an easier time annexing the country with less opposition. Far fetched? Perhaps, but it is plausible and anything is possible at this point.

BIden funds the Russia....... last year Biden administration bought 240 million barrels of oil from Russia.. still keep buying even today folks ...

Biden is not ready to stop buying the oil from Putin....

The all Sanctions drama is a Joke ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYRuCsDkglk

It was Obama then Donald Trump hammering the point that EU countries were failing to invest in Europe's security.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel policy agenda just ignored both.

Is Barack Obama right to criticise NATO's free riders? Of course he is

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/blog/2016/mar/11/barack-obama-right-criticise-natos-free-riders-course-he-is

Ironically, it is one of the only foreign politics that Obama and Trump agreed on.

Common comments

A: Russia’s invasion killing innocent Ukrainian civilians is evil. Outrageous!

B: Where’s the outrage when the US has been doing the same thing?

A: Bombing is not the same as invasion. How can you support Putin?

B: I don’t. Both are wrong. Just seeing evil when there’s evil.

A: No, you’re either for us or against us.

A no fly zone equals WW3

This war has already manifested in global outrage, and counter actions. Playing the 'no military' involvement card with Putin is like using airbrakes on turtles, ie calibration is way off Putin's scale, and is completely irrelevant to the course of this war let alone to minimise civilian casualties.

Isn't the on the ground evidence enough? Isn't recent history enough, in Syria, Putin's mad commanders were sending barrages and barrages of bombs and missiles to target one rebel with an RPG, who was long gone by the instruction to strike was relayed. Onky Turkey's NFZ was effective in stopping this. Obama was more than useless, he let civilian deaths perpetuate because of a policy.

Well there was a guy once who told NATO they all needed to take all this seriously and actually fund their militaries.

as always NATO had other priorities such as “climate change” being the number 1 threat to world security.

"Because of your weakness, because of your disunity, all the alliance has managed to do so far is to carry fifty tons of diesel fuel for Ukraine," he said. "Is this the alliance you were building?"

ouch. He really won’t stop inciting until other countries spill their blood, will he?

This war is morally bankrupt on so many levels.

First Germany ditched its energy independence and instead tied itself to Russia. Then it actively put in place the means for Russia to have monopoly control over energy flow to EUROPE. Nord 2 couldn't be done without Germany providing land for landing site, or Germany changing its environmental protection laws, or providing HQ offices and tax breaks for Nord 2 to operate.

Then NATO basically said to Russia - if you invade, NATO won't intervene.

Then NATO ignored US intel on invasion planning.

Now we have sanctions BUT Chinese allowed to circumvent sanctions for Russia. Buying oil gas from Russia is still OK courtesy of Biden. Asset freezes announced but no one really knows where assets are. Banks asset freezes when not even China is willing to lend (so no point in freezing).

Meanwhile back at the ranch....Ukrainian civilians disguissed as a door has had its knob shot off. BUT, Russian planes are still allowed to fly and pick targets (who are always gone by the time the launch button is pressed.

OBAMA MKII...

NATO as well as U.S. are not helping Ukraine militarily. Consequently, Ukraine is helpless. Russia knowing it invaded Ukraine without worries. Economic sanctions cannot halt Russia's advances.

Help is on the way. In six months to a year, the effects of the sanctions will kick in.