New Zealand says everyone entering country must self-isolate to contain coronavirus

Mr Kipling - I think we can safely take most of the numbers of infections with a giant block of salt.

Yes. Medical personnel have made it clear that they are using the number of REPORTED cases when they are comparing death rates. Until there are more test kits available, we may never know the actual number of infected persons.

I'm still not convinced that SELF-isolation is effective. There are too many reported incidents of those who were supposed to be in self-isolation who instead chose to mingle with groups of unsuspecting people.

Since there are reports out of China that people can spread the disease even when they are asymptomatic, and even when they test negative for the virus, this might be a good idea. I am not a trained medical professional, but seems to make sense.

@ Tora

That is a comparison between similar number of death to show that extra-poling the number of infected out of the number of deaths can not be done, so the number are right (until proved otherwise) just not taken at the same time frame.

I think we can safely take most of the numbers of infections with a giant block of salt.

People don't die from "influenza". They die from pneumonia and other complications of influenza. Hey, same thing with covid...

@Jim Harper - re: influenza as misdiagnosed death: reports from the middle of February suggest the numbers of influenza cases for this season in Japan were 60% down on the previous year. Your theory is fair but that figure does go against it for influenza at least. That said, I, and most others in Japan AFAIK believe the numbers infected with Coronavirus to be much higher than official reports.

@flute 

Your numbers are WAY off!

@oyatoi

Includes Aussie too, bro. What are you talking about? And already the one-day series has been called off.

Regarding policing, Ardern said officials had been instructed to "step up enforcement of self isolation through measures such as spot checks".

(From Newshub)

And don't worry about it, airlines will soon stop flying of their own accord, as demand drops off, which is the purpose. It's going to reduce tourism big time, to almost zero, bro.

Same happened in Japan when Abe introduced 14 day self isolation a few days ago for Koreans/Chinese.

And why all the hate for Adern?way more proactive than a lot of other places.

@Mr Kipling

Even without considering misdiagnosed death cause which could appear with retroactive studies about death as pointed by Jim Harper.

If you look at others countries, you should get that inferring the number of cases out of the number of deaths is not so easy since all countries have different and unstable death rate.

For example :

Japan : 674 confirmed cases for 19 deaths. Death rate 2.82% ; 12060 tested.

South Korea : 3150 confirmed cases for 17 deaths. Death rate 0.54% ; 94055 tested.

Italia (not sure if asymptomatic are included) : 650 confirmed case for 17 deaths. Death rate : 2.62% ; 12014 tested.

Iran : 139 confirmed cases for 19 deaths. Death rate : 13,67% ; unknow number of tested.

As you see there is a big variability. The death curbs of these 4 countries see the same move in the increase of case as this stade, it is later that things change South Korea going for a low rise one when Iran and Italia do for a fast rise one. We will see how the japanese one move in the day to come : flatten, low, middle, high. Let's hope it flatten as for any other countries in the world even the cruiser, charter and so on countries.

After looking at how cluster generated a high number of cases and the delay for the cluster to be found, the currents number of confirmed case seems quite low.

But no belly aching from South Korea or China.

@Mr Kipling:

Jim Harper... I agree with your logic but there is a small problem, I cant work out.

If there were so many hidden cases there should be a lot more deaths. Where are the bodies?

My guess would be that if these individuals were believed to officially have influenza or pneumonia (and given that they would be composed mostly of elderly people who are ordinarily subject to these diseases), then no post-mortem testing would be done and the official cause of death would be listed as influenza or pneumonia. There may have been a spike in those figures (that's entirely hypothetical), but you'd have to have a comparison with previous rates of death, and that's certainly something that is not being mentioned in the news- only deaths directly connected to coronavirus.

Jim Harper... I agree with your logic but there is a small problem, I cant work out.

If there were so many hidden cases there should be a lot more deaths. Where are the bodies?

@Ashley

Had Abe done this from the start with the Chinese instead of waiting 3 months after the fact Japan's situation would not be as it is. Lucky for Abe, that Japanese take illness pretty serious, wearing masks, washing hands more and longer and finally people and kids alike mostly staying indoors. This is the only reason the numbers do not rise faster.

The reason Japanese numbers do not rise faster is because doctors and hospitals are extremely reluctant to test for the virus. Individuals with symptoms can seek medical attention eight or nine times before actually being tested. If they're positive, they've just spread it everywhere, but it won't go towards the official figures because doctors and hospitals will dismiss it as normal flu and send the connected patients home without testing.

The logic is straightforward: Minimal testing = minimal confirmed cases = no failure of government measures.

Without widespread testing, any suggestion that Japanese numbers are low has no evidential basis. Japan is doing less testing than almost any other developed nation, so it is absolutely impossible to get any accurate idea of how many infected people there are in Japan. This is simply a fact.

So Air NZ just started price gouging on flights arriving before the deadline , thats not very good. And you must be soft in the head if you think people will actually self isolate once they arrive.

Once they get into the country they going to sit in their hotel for 2 weeks instead of going to hobbiton etc , ? simple mindedness , the ones who already have bookings etc will continue regardless.

I should say includes everybody except some pacific island people.

Complete isolation is fine in theory, but unless these regulations also extend to preventing entry by overseas based NZers (especially the million or so living across the ditch, where there are now hundreds of cases),

Almost nobody is prevented from entering NZ. These measures are to try and force self isolation, and it includes everybody.

Smart decision. As an American I wish that the US could make critical decisions similar to what the kiwi's just did.

Complete isolation is fine in theory, but unless these regulations also extend to preventing entry by overseas based NZers (especially the million or so living across the ditch, where there are now hundreds of cases), the way will be left open to viral entry by that route and this will be another case of never mind the quality, feel the width virtue signalling that Ardern is very good at.

Pretty severe but can't blame NZ at all. Hope people actually "self quarantine" though.

With only six confirmed cases, and being an isolated island country, these border restrictions will be a good case study to check how many undetected cases in the country come to light over the next few weeks.

@Geronimo

Would you fly there knowing that things may get even more strict?

Japan imposed the 14 days on Korea/China and the planes have virtually stopped. It's a defacto shutdown. Airlines will stop flying there soon. Entire shutdowns are coming to other countries as well.

At least then will we stand a chance.

geronimo2006

Good on her but not sure if this will work. How do they enforce it? And what about people like airline staff?

The mere fact that the restrictions have been imposed means that both tourists and business travelers will stop arriving in the country. This by itself will prevent a number of potential cases entering. The only ones coming in will be returning New Zealanders, who are able to self-isolate in their own homes.

Good on her but not sure if this will work. How do they enforce it? And what about people like airline staff?

Good on New Zealand! With borders now virtually closed for all intents and purposes, this will be easier to contain.

Respect for Adern.

People from small South Pacific island countries, which currently have no reported cases, will be exempted, Ardern said in a news conference.

That's a stupid exemption! So many healthcare systems in in islands in the South Pacific are barely functional. They may have it but would never confirm the cases without testing.