By signaling its openness to a ceasefire, Ukraine has handed the Kremlin a difficult challenge at a time when the Russian military has the upper hand in the war: Should Moscow accept a truce and abandon hopes of making new gains, or should it reject the offer and risk derailing a cautious rapprochement with Washington?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly ruled out a temporary break in hostilities, saying it would only benefit Ukraine and its Western allies by letting them replenish their arsenals. He has insisted Moscow wants a comprehensive agreement that would ensure a lasting settlement.
The Kremlin responded cautiously to the news of Ukraine accepting the U.S.-proposed truce during Tuesday’s talks in Saudi Arabia, saying that it needs to know details of the discussions before expressing its view.
The careful approach reflects Putin’s awareness of the risk that a blunt rejection of the offer could upset tentative efforts to normalize Russia-U.S. ties.
Observers say that instead of an outright rejection, Putin will likely propose linking the truce to certain conditions that would protect Moscow’s interests.
The Russian military held the battlefield initiative last year, making slow but steady gains along several sections of the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line. The tempo of Russian advances accelerated in the fall, when Moscow’s forces captured the most territory since the start of the war.
Ukraine has sought to retake the initiative with a surprise foray into Russia’s Kursk region that began in August, seeking to distract Moscow’s forces from their offensive in eastern Ukraine and make gains that potentially could be exchanged for Russia-occupied areas in peace talks. The incursion, however, has diverted Ukrainian resources from defending the Donetsk region in the east and it failed to stem Russian advances there. Now Ukrainian forces are on the verge of losing their last remaining bridgehead in Kursk under the brunt of a swift Russian counteroffensive.
Moscow also ravaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones, destroying much of its power-generating capacity.
Putin has repeatedly said a temporary halt to hostilities at a time when Russian forces firmly hold the initiative would only allow exhausted Ukrainian troops a break to rest and rearm.
“As for the settlement of the situation, I would like to emphasize that it shouldn’t be aimed at a brief truce — some sort of a break for regrouping troops and rearmament in order to continue the conflict — but a long-term peace,” Putin has said.
Moscow has made it clear it wouldn’t accept any troops from NATO members as monitors under a prospective peace deal.
Putin key goals remain what he declared when he launched the full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022: Ukraine renounce joining NATO, sharply cut its army, and protect Russian language and culture to keep the country in Moscow’s orbit. On top of that, he now wants Kyiv to withdraw its forces from the four regions Moscow has seized but doesn’t fully control.
Russian officials also have said that any prospective peace deal should involve unfreezing Russian assets in the West and lifting other U.S. and European Union sanctions. The Trump administration has put a potential sanctions relief on the table.
Along with that, Putin has repeatedly emphasized the need to “remove the root causes of the crisis,” a reference to the Kremlin’s demand to roll back a NATO military buildup near Russian borders it describes as a major threat to its security.
The Kremlin leader has argued that Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose term expired last year, lacks the legitimacy to sign a peace deal. Kyiv maintains that elections are impossible to hold amid a war. U.S. President Donald Trump has spoken of the need for Ukraine to hold an election in comments that echoed Moscow’s view.
Some observers noted that instead of an outright rejection of the proposed truce, Putin could put forward several conditions.
Pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov suggested Moscow could agree to a truce if Ukraine's allies halt arms supplies to Kyiv. The U.S. said it resumed weapons shipments and intelligence sharing with Kyiv after it agreed to a truce Tuesday in Saudi Arabia.
“Russia could say ‘yes, but’ to a ceasefire offer, accepting a 30-day truce on condition that an embargo is imposed on arms supplies to Ukraine,” Markov wrote.
Another Moscow wish is a presidential election in Ukraine, which would be possible after Ukraine lifts martial law.
“Peace would allow Russia to influence Ukrainian politics and use peaceful means to ensure friendly relations,” Markov said.
Moscow-based foreign policy expert Alexei Naumov also predicted that Russia would likely accept the ceasefire offer if it leads to an election in Ukraine.
“There is a paradox in these talks and peace initiatives – Ukraine and Russia are both vying for Donald Trump’s attention and seeking to improve their positions with his help,” Naumov said in a commentary.
Sam Greene of the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis said it would be hard to imagine Putin saying a categoric “no” to the ceasefire proposal, adding that the Kremlin leader “has already achieved in some ways more through this negotiation process … then he achieved in a long time on the battlefield,” describing a brief halt in the U.S. military assistance to Ukraine and the talk about rolling back sanctions as “big wins” for Russia.
Putin’s statements against a temporary truce mean simply that Russia is “not likely to agree to a ceasefire without extracting various things along the way,” Greene said.
“The sort of ceasefire that it might be interested in is quite clearly not the kind of ceasefire that the Ukrainians or the Europeans might be interested in, although the Americans may be more malleable on that,” he added.
“Moscow has every reason to believe that … if this process lands anywhere, it will land in a place that is more or less on Russia’s terms, as long as the process is being driven by Washington,” Greene said.
© Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.
39 Comments
HopeSpringsEternal
Putin's winning and Zelenskyy's collapsing so it's easy to understand why the Kremlin will be in no rush so to say
HopeSpringsEternal
No doubt RAPID elections in Ukraine will be a key Putin demand for any cease-fire agreement. As Putin wants to deal with Ukraine's actual leader during the upcoming negotiated settlement talks that will be signed by both.
wallace
Trump is in a rush for Putin to accept a truce and warned him what will happen to Russia if he does not.
wallace
There will be no Ukraine elections until the war ends and the 5 million displaced Ukrainians can return home. it won't happen this year.
wtfjapan
No doubt RAPID elections in Ukraine will be a key Putin demand for any cease-fire agreement.
wont happen, why would Ukraine have an election when most of it men are either fighting or hiding in Europe, Ukraine will have an election after the war is over, so they can ensure no Putin interferance in that election. Majority of Ukrainians support Zelenski
UK didnt have an election for 10yrs during WW2
HopeSpringsEternal
Hard to know Trump or Putin's true negotiating reality, but we do know Zelenskyy will not be in charge of Ukraine for long, he's deeply unpopular inside Ukraine and within the Trump Admin.
Wasabi
The US is enabling russia in the destruction of a friendly country.
How long until MAGA feel great again? After Ukraine, which country? Panama, Greenland, Canada, Casa...?
So much wining for trump, I am already tired of him.
Tokyo Guy
It won't be hard to know what Putin's "conditions" are, as Trump will announce them from the Oval Office.
Underworld
HopeSpringsEternal
No, Putin is nowhere close to winning.
If Putin tries to add conditions, Ukraine won't agree.
Underworld
HopeSpringsEternal
I.e., Putin, Russia, North Korea and Iran.
Putin doesn't want peace, hence Biden admins policies. Trump will have to find out the hard way.
Fos
And after all this time people still get mixed up :)
Let’s not forget what former US Assistant Secretary of State for European Victoria Nuland said about the United States investing $5 billion in more than 20 years in Ukraine via the CIA, USAID and the National Endowment for Democracy after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Money was allocated for “fair elections, to fight corruption and to develop the energy sector”. In 2014, Washington overthrew the legally elected president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych and installed a puppet government that had been selected by the neoconservatives in the White House.
https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2015-05/ukraine-usa-maidan-finance/seite-2
OkinawaRider
Underworld
No, Putin is nowhere close to winning.
Wrong again, even the Associated Press disagrees as per article. (Ukraine has handed the Kremlin a difficult challenge at a time when the Russian military has the upper hand in the war.)
Still, POTUS is moving fast and will seal the ceasefire deal in good time.
OkinawaRider
Tokyo GuyToday 02:30 pm JST
It won't be hard to know what Putin's "conditions" are, as Trump will announce them from the Oval Office
Still think POTUS is a Kremlin agent ?
iron man
So he is dealing the cards in the poker shake down, Putin still may have his tarrifs hidden in his cuffs. We honestly do not know what the truth is any more.
Underworld
OkinawaRider
Underworld
No, Putin is nowhere close to winning.
Nope. Upper hand, sure. Close to winning? Are you kidding me?
Yeah, yeah. Let me know when it is done.
OkinawaRider
Underworld
Putin doesn't want peace, hence Biden admins policies.
Wrong, Putin will come to the table for negotiated peace, POTUS will ensure this happens in good time.
Biden administration on the other hand was not interested in pursuing ceasefire, they were blatantly pro war.
Trump will have to find out the hard way.
No, he will not.
I'veSeenFootage
Here's one: take your soldiers and your tanks and get out of Ukraine forever. Then resign and surrender to the ICC.
Underworld
OkinawaRider
Putin doesn't want peace, hence Biden admins policies.
How naïve. Putin will add demands that Ukraine cannot agree to and then Trump is in trouble, because Ukraine won't sign, and his peace deal is dead.
They were not pro-war at all, they pushed back against the warmonger, Putin. Something that Trump hasn't done.
In fact, Trump has allowed warmonger Putin great latitude and even wouldn't sign the UN resolution admonishing Russia for the war of aggression on Ukraine.
Trump will have to find out the hard way.
Yes. He will.
OkinawaRider
Here's one: take your soldiers and your tanks and get out of Ukraine forever. Then resign and surrender to the ICC.
Sounds realistic.
Underworld
Fos
~$66 Billion
What are you talking about?
I agree, but I don't think the Trump administration believes in climate change.
Russia is the aggressor here. Not America. Not Europe. Not Ukraine.
Russia is nowhere near Kyiv, Putin's goal, and has a troubled economy. I think Putin is aware of this, but will try to pretend that Ukraine has having the weaker hand here.
TaiwanIsNotChina
And the next 5 are Chinese.
That's quite impressive that the US ended the lives of close to a million russians without losing a single soldier.
JJE
The narrative has shifted like an eclipse. It's starting to sink in that this provoked conflict will conclude on terms favorable to Moscow and Putin is firmly in the driver's seat.
Two of the Great Powers, of which the EU isn't, should be able to hammer out a deal with shrewd diplomacy.
This is a win-win for peace and prosperity.
OkinawaRider
Underworld
How naïve. Putin will add demands that Ukraine cannot agree to and then Trump is in trouble, because Ukraine won't sign, and his peace deal is dead.
Peace deal will be reached, both Ukraine and Russia will sign after negotiations run their course, that much is certain.
They were not pro-war at all, they pushed back against the warmonger, Putin. Something that Trump hasn't done.
Biden administration was pro war, Trump administration is pro peace. It is that simple and was clearly communicated during the election campaign. US voters made their choice clear and handed team Trump a decisive victory.
Russia is nowhere near Kyiv, Putin's goal, and has a troubled economy.
Is it on its knees as we have been hearing for 3 years? If so, it is a good time for POTUS to use the threat of strong sanctions on Russia to get the ceasefire deal done then.
I think Putin is aware of this, but will try to pretend that Ukraine has having the weaker hand here.*We can all try guess how strong Putin's hand is but what is certain is that Ukraine does not have the stronger hand here. Regardless, the highly focused and competent Trump team will broker and deliver the ceasefire deal as promised.
iron man
History tells the future. EU nations signed off on the Minsk 1,2..3? agreements regarding the Donbas States/ provinces whatever, Wealthy UKR business types, nah we lose roubles, Then the trusty Zel got elected. How? thousands of UKr citizens killed by war action or displaced to other blue eyed nations, Why?. Any of you ever understood the reports of UKr corruption and previous non-acceptance to N!!!. So many $billions, so many peoples. But were the Minsk agreements legal?? please do a study of minsk agreements b4 u allow plotus to nuke the whole of europe. (and then will be incapable of paying tariffs). History tells the future 'cos it holds the future! PUT the boot IN turned off the gas, dirty asian monkey reaction. We working people want lower taxes and cheaper non nuclarised LNG.
Underworld
JJE
Not a provoked conflict and nowhere near conclusion.
Russia isn't a Great Power anymore. China took its spot.
What is? There is no peace deal yet, and warmonger Putin will ruin it for Trump.
Ah_so
Hope springs eternal - it's hard to know how long Zelenskyy still be in charge for, but I wouldn't form my opinion on the matter from a mouthpiece for Kremlin propaganda.
Fos
Another desperate attempt of the manipulators of narrative who hardly know what thet are copying and pasting while receiving the US military dispatches, making sure the warlords in Wall Street keep profiting from the endless wars Washington is waging all over the world. U.S. government spending related to the war in Ukraine, is actually over the figure mentions (110 billions).
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
The new statistics from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute say that the 41 companies in the Top 100 are based in the United States, and recorded arms revenues of $317 billion, half the total arms revenues of the Top 100 and 2.5 per cent more than in 2022. Since 2018, the top five companies in the Top 100 have all been based in the USA.
A reminder that the US government is the biggest arms dealer on Earth, and the arm sales serve Washington military hegemony.
TaiwanIsNotChina
Rubber is going to meet the road and we will finally see whether Trump is an ally to Ukraine and other free countries or an enemy.
OkinawaRider
They really are.
Sure. Will that be this year or next? Or the year after?*It will be delivered in good time by the highly competent team Trump negotiators.
The US voters wanted cheper grocery prices.
Dozen eggs now 10% cheaper, getting there. Promises checked off one by one. Takes time to roll back Biden inflation.
But I agree with you, he should use the threat of strong sanctions on Russia to get the ceasefire deal done. But he won't.
I think he will. Kremlin will come to the negotiations table and make a deal as a result.
ClippetyClopToday 03:45 pm JST
It seems many of the previous WH administration supporters have trouble accepting the fact DJT is in charge of WH now and his highly competent administration is moving fast towards delivering a ceasefire deal. I,m sorry you have trouble coping with this.
TaiwanIsNotChina
A reminder that it is a good thing that the US is the arsenal defending the free countries.
stormcrow
Trump has already thrown the baby out with the bath water by proclaiming no NATO membership for Ukraine. Also, giving up Ukraine territory to the invader.
What does Ukraine have left to negotiate with?!
Art of the Crappy Deal
OkinawaRider
There is no peace deal yet, and warmonger Putin will ruin it for Trump.
POTUS will bring both Zelensky and Putin to the table and make a deal. That is a certainty.
Underworld
OkinawaRider
Trump administration is pro peace. They aren't.
Oh come on! Trump just wants the Nobel Peace prize and the rest of them follow whatever he says - no matter what their previous convictions were.
Sure. Will that be this year or next? Or the year after?
Sure. ;-)
The US voters wanted cheaper grocery prices.
Cheaper than what? Not cheaper than under Biden when he left office. Not that the presidency directly controls these things.
The inflation was from Covid, but Biden got it down to 2.7%.
But I agree with you, he should use the threat of strong sanctions on Russia to get the ceasefire deal done. But he won't.
Well, I agree with you on that he should threaten sanctions, but I will say that I think it a 1% chance that he actually will.
And if he does, I will celebrate it.
But Trump is too weak to actually sanction Russia.
Fos
Also a reminder that the White House is about to loot Ukraine of the most mineral and rare earths for $500 billions.
In a speech to a US corporate lobby group, Ukraine's Zelensky thanked Black Rock, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Elon Musk's Starlink, promising:
“Everyone can become a big business by” buying up Ukrainian assets
To put it with the Political Analyst and Columbia University Professor Jeffrey Sachs:
‘The United States are the most lawless and dangerous country in the world by far’
JJE
Well perfect timing because it is happening:
Russia has presented the United States with a list of demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Reuters reported just 5 minutes ago.
It doesn't say what exactly Moscow included on its list or whether it is willing to engage in peace talks with Kyiv prior to their acceptance. Russian and American officials discussed the terms during in-person and virtual conversations over the last three weeks according to the article.
They described the Kremlin's terms as broad and similar to demands it previously has presented to Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO.
TaiwanIsNotChina
No, I would think the ahs that invaded Ukraine in the first place would be the most lawless and dangerous country in the world by far.
wallace
Trump has very little power over Putin. That's the weak link.
Underworld
JJE
If it includes elections or getting rid of Zelenskyy, it's a complete no-go for Ukraine and they won't agree.
Underworld
Fos
Jeffrey Sachs is a Russian shill.