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© Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Recession signs worry Trump ahead of 2020
By JOSH BOAK and JONATHAN LEMIRE WASHINGTON©2024 GPlusMedia Inc.
74 Comments
CrazyJoe
Well, if Trump causes a recession it would HAVE to be the 'greatest recession ever!'
Black Sabbath
Trump can win if the economy holds. If it don't, Trump will not win re-election.
Because everyone known what they think about this idiot, and nothing will change anyone's mind -- nothing, but the economy stalling.
bass4funk
Or not. Consumer spending is up Walmart stocks are up, as long as people are spending and not sitting on their money and the NYSE is looking good, DOW rebounded, looking good, Trump doesn’t have anything to worry about.
Blacklabel
Oh just like there was gonna be a recession when he won. Didn’t happen.
lincolnman
But we did have a recession - a recession of public honesty, decency, and respect for the US around the world...all due to the Great Orange Demented Dimwit...
Inverted yield curve - the recession is coming - and Donnie is already making excuses that it's the Fed's fault. This moron can't accept responsibility for anything...
Send Donnie packing - so he can face all his indictments; current (Individual -1) or forthcoming...
WilliB
There is always an economic contraction after a bull run like this. Only a question of when, not if. There is one thing however, you can bet all your savings on: The moment there is a financial crash, the narrative at CNN suddenly will be that it is the Trump economy (and not the result of magnificent Obama policy like they say now...)
They will turn around faster than you can say whiplash. Bet on it!
Serrano
President Donald Trump is warning of an economic crash if he loses reelection
Well, look at the economic policies of the Democrat candidates - free this, free that, higher taxes...
lincolnman
Free this: Billion dollar subsidies to farmers...
Free that: Permanent tax breaks for the Top 1%...
Higher Taxes: Tariffs paid for by consumers...even Donnie admitted that this week...
Faster than Donnie's flip-flop on tariffs? "China is paying for the tariffs", "We're delaying tariffs since they could result in higher consumer prices over Christmas"....
rlperez@hotmail.com.au
bass4funk: "NYSE is looking good, DOW rebounded, looking good,"
Apparently you don't follow the stock exchange. Read how much the stock exchange as DROPPED in the last week.
bass4funk
I do and I see how it’s on the rebound again. As I said, as long as consumer confidence is up and the people are spending, jobs market is great and the Department and retail stores online and everywhere else, it all shouldn’t be a problem for Trump.
Uh-huh....lay off the CNN...really.
He’s right on that.
Yeah, the liberals are far worse, they don’t even know what that words means.
Will never happen, relax.
Jimizo
If the economy goes south, Trump could be looking at approval ratings in the Richard Nixon territory.
nishikat
Tariffs are taxes and the economy is going down.
Trump will just blame the recession on Hillary. Trump is running the US like his casino or his university. If you wanted a businessman to run the country you should have elected Bill Gates. Bill Gates understands how to run a real business (not a joke of one like Trump University) and he would be running things in the black.
It's crashing now like Trump University crashed and his casino crashed. If Bill Gates were president the US would be running full steam like Microsoft's cloud services
Jimizo
I read about this on a few sites. The Guardian mentioned it, and as you said, they are neutral on Trump. The WSJ also reported on it.
Are you saying it’s fake news?
>
lincolnman
CNN?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/recession-indicator-yield-curve-inversion-meaning
He's wrong as usual. His tax cut and trillion dollar deficit. His trade war and tariffs. He can't accept responsibility for anything....like a two year old.....
I'm very relaxed - its Donnie and his supporters that are in meltdown knowing he's facing multiple indictments once he's thrown out...maybe he can ask to be sent to his buddy Epstein's cell....
Serrano
If the economy goes south, Trump could be looking at approval ratings in the Richard Nixon territory.
Dream on.
Jimizo
I don’t think it’s dreaming. Trump is in the low forties even with a good economy. If the economy turns for the worse, it is realistic to see him sink into the thirties.
Nixon and Bush 2 are the worst of postwar presidents in terms of approval ratings when leaving office. Trump with a bad economy could easily sink to the bottom of that swamp.
bass4funk
Don’t think so. But hey, if consumer spending is way, way down and people aren’t trading or sitting on their money, I might panic.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/dow-jones-industrial-average-futures-rise-as-stocks-rebound-51565874566.
Good, me too. Take a dose of this. Love this President.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/30/us-personal-income-and-spending-june-2019.html
nishikat
With Trump it's reality considering his CEO performance. Should have elected Bill Gates. Trump University vs Microsoft. It's like a Pinto vs a Tesla. What did Trump ever build that had any value to anyone? Now look at Bill Gates' accomplishments (without needing Daddy's money) and it shows Gates would be able to keep the US economy lifted unlike Trump. Remember Trump is running the US like his bankrupt casino business.
Silvafan
Pres. Obam vs. Dump (27 mos.)
On January 20, 2017, the day Trump took office, the Dow Jones industrial average was at 19,827. It’s had a good run during his first two plus years, and it closed Friday at 25,942. That’s an impressive gain of 30.8 percent
During the same period of Barack Obama’s first term, from Inauguration Day 2009, until the close on May 12, 2011, the closest equivalent date during his presidency, the Dow rose from 8,280 to 12,696, a growth of 65 percent.
In 2009, the first year of Obama’s presidency, unemployment hit 9.9 percent, its highest level since the Great Depression. But starting in 2010, the unemployment rate fell for eight straight years, namely the eight years when the economy was essentially under Obama policy. By 2016, Obama’s last year in office, unemployment measured 4.7 percent (down from 9.9 percent.) In 2017, the first year of Trump’s term (but before many of his policies were implemented) it fell to 4.1 percent.
In 2018, with the Dump tax cuts and other magical elements of Trumpism on the books, it fell again to 3.9 percent. So, depending on how you count those swing years, unemployment fell by a 5.8 percentage points under Obama policy over eight years and 0.2 percentage points under Trump’s policies through the end of 2018.
President Obama inherited an economy and a stock market and a labor market that had crashed under his predecessor, while Dump inherited one that had thrived under Pres. Obama.
(Dow dropped 800 points this week)
LOL! Pres. Obama still owned Dump!
Thank you Pres. Obama!
lincolnman
I actually think they'll be worse than Nixon - Trump is underwater on every measure except the economy - if we have a recession, then that goes and his disapproval numbers are negative across the board.
Even the latest Fox News poll shows him losing to more Democrats now - Kamalla Harris is beating him by 6 points.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-still-leads-democratic-race-warren-climbs-into-second
Trumpers are having nightmares when their own network shows he's a loser...
rlperez@hotmail.com.au
Silvafan: "(Dow dropped 800 points this week)"
But according to bass4funk: "it all shouldn’t be a problem for Trump." Very thing is fine, why accept the facts.
nishikat
Proof that even Trump people are losing confidence in Trump. Remember this is a guy who inherited Daddy's money and is so bad at business (even after scamming banks) he still would have made more money by putting Daddy's money in an index fund and just sitting tight. Trump couldn't even beat an Index fund, and now he is running the White House.
If Bill Gates were president this would be I WONT panic.
Proof that Trump voters are losing confidence in the founder of Trump University. Should have elected Bill Gates
bass4funk
Obama presided over one of the worst recoveries in US history and was the only president to leave with the sluggish underperforming GDP Less than 3%
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/barack-obamas-sluggish-economy-13017
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/debate-club/articles/2017-01-17/obamas-economic-legacy-will-be-slow-growth-and-government-control
bass4funk
Probably won’t have to worry about it happening.
Yeah we all heard this before, Hillary Clinton tried to do the same thing and that didn’t turn out too well for her, there is no way that Harris could be Trump, she doesn’t even have a plan for economic policies and the policies that she has a big entitlements is not going to win her with anything.
nishikat
Don't sound so sure there. Probably????
Silvafan
@bass4funk
LOL! Your credible source is an Opinion article! HAHA!
Conveniently, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis website has a tool that allows you to compare recessions back to 1948.
Here’s what the Fed’s site tells us.
This recovery is not the worst when it comes to jobs. The Federal Reserve measures the cumulative percentage gain in employment from the point when each recession ended and the recovery began.
During the recovery from the 2001 recession, employment didn’t crawl out of negative territory for about 28 months. By comparison, in the recovery following the 2007 recession, at the 21-month mark, the United States began adding jobs beyond the number that existed at the start of the recovery.
Facts: Comparing Pres. Obama vs. Dump
We had a record 90 straight months of economic expansion.
We enjoyed the longest period of private sector job creation in American history.
Unemployment dropped from 10.1% in October of 2009 to 4.8% by early 2017.
The stock market set record highs throughout Obama's presidency.
The Federal budget deficit was reduced by two-thirds since 2009.
Under President Obama, government spending increased less than it did under President's Bush and Reagan.
For 95% of American taxpayers, income taxes dropped as low or lower than any point in the previous 50 years.
Dependence on foreign oil was greatly reduced due to record domestic oil production and improved fuel efficiency standards.
At least 18 million more Americans now have health insurance than before.
The Affordable Care Act has added years to the life of Medicare.
Since passage of the Affordable Care Act, we are seeing the slowest rate of increase in healthcare costs since 1960.
We had fewer soldiers, sailors, and airmen in war zones than at any time in the previous 12 years.
There were zero successful attacks by al Qaeda on US soil while Obama was president.
We caught and deported more illegal immigrants during Obama's presidency than ever before. (without killing or mistreating illegal immigrants in an inhumane way)LOL! Thank you Pres. Obama!
lincolnman
Typical Trumper/Russian BS that has been proven false time and time again, but Trumpers keep posting it.
Bush Jrs annual GDP in 2001, 02, 04, 06, 07 and 08 were all below 3%.
Trump for 2017: 2.4%, 2018: 2.9% - he's a member of the Repub below 3% club too....
https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543
We'll be waiting for you to admit you were wrong and an apology.
Not probably, Donnie and his supporters...
Trumpers have a hard time coming to grips that their own network shows Trump losing to the Top 4 Dem candidates...Oh My....
SuperLib
It would be the end for Trump.
He has no accomplishments. No trade deal with China, no Middle East deal, no progress on North Korea, no new healthcare plan, no new trade deal with allies, no wall. No resolution to the hornets nests he's kicked up except for tension and uncertainty.
All he has is the economy and racism, and if we add the economy to the list above then all he has left is racism and there aren't enough voters to support that. Like I've been saying....his entire reelection platform will be about immigration and demonizing minorities.
jack o helen
We should add the fact that Trump and his supporters don't even know what slogan to use for their campaign: "Make America Great Again" or "Keep America Great Again". At a recent rally, Trump asked his supporters which he should use. They in response couldn't make a decision. They all needed to be told what to think. That to me is so disturbing on so many levels.
SuperLib
And let's not forget that he had to fight tooth and nail with the GOP and the Freedom Nutjobs just to get that.
I remember a great political cartoon where there's a patient in the ER on life support labeled "the economy" and the doctor is a Democrat holding the shock pads labeled "stimulus." Nothing is happening, and in the corner you see a Republican has pulled the plug, saying we need to save on the electric bill.
Pretty much sums it up. When a right-winger brings up things like "sluggish recovery" we can thank them for their contribution in creating that. They were flat out wrong and counter-productive to try to reduce government spending during the recession. The only good thing they did was make it a matter of record of what not to do.
You must have missed the part where it said, "than last year's 2.9%." And last I checked that includes policies like tax cuts and deficit spending.
Silvafan
Let's not forget the positive economy has been mostly a continuation of Pres. Obama's turnaround of an economy that Bush Jr. destroyed.
but, hey, he is going to expand the US territory.
Donald Trump reportedly wants to purchase Greenland from Denmark
https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-reportedly-wants-purchase-000322014.html
HAHA!
SuperLib
Still under 3% even with the free money giveaway to corporations and the rich. I argued that more should go to the middle class who drive consumer spending, but you kept telling us about the miracle of trickle down economics. I guess all of those corporate stock buybacks got in the way of your plans.
Wolfpack
The fiscal mismanagement of the US government has been a bipartisan disaster. Republicans at least used to pretend to care about the issue. Once GW Bush’s second term Social Security reform effort failed so completely no one from either party will dare make any honest attempt to fix the problem. Both sides pretend it doesn’t exist - unless of course they think they can get some political mileage out of bringing it up every now and then. Trump actually campaigned on not reforming the major entitlement programs. When even Republicans thrown in the towel to socialism you know the jig is up.
The debt is largely driven by discretionary spending. The budget for defense and the foreign aid has remained at or below historic levels. Interest on servicing the debt has itself become a huge budget item nearing $200 billion annually. The gap between expectations from government and the increase in tax income has been growing ever since the late 1960s.
In the 1990’s Ross Perot predicted this exact situation. The longer this goes on the harder the reckoning will be. Just hope that inevitable day doesn’t occur in my lifetime- as much as I would like to say I told you so.
Jimizo
@Wolfpack
I’ve always respected you for remaining a fiscal conservative while others switched off these beliefs overnight after Trump took office and carried on spending.
lincolnman
Did you vote for Trump in 2016? Plan to vote for him in 2020?
If so, just make sure you are looking in the mirror when you say "I told you so"...
lincolnman
Guess we won't get our admission and apology for posting clearly false and misleading information...
Trumpers mirror their Dear Leader - an aversion to the truth and facts - and an inability to take responsibility...
Blacklabel
Two terms? Great!
Blacklabel
Also IF Greenland is actually for sale would be crazy to not at least consider buying it.
Andrew Crisp
Trump will be doing everything he can to keep the economy and the stock market up, even if a recession hits the USA it may not be a severe one, the economy come back time may be short, we have to remember that the Trump administration has stripped away a lot of "red tape" that will help businesses. Trump still has a better chance in winning an election in 2020 because the Democrats are literally all offering the same deal - socialism, higher taxes, wasteful spending and open borders.
Jimizo
Fake news.
The democratic candidates are not offering the same thing.
Chip Star
Yeah, because the finances of the US are bang in order.
Blacklabel
The finances must be. Dems have all this money to give illegals free healthcare and to forgive everyone’s college debt and 32 trillion for the Green new deal.
Buying Greenland would make more sense than any of those at a fraction of the cost.
Jimizo
Don’t worry about spending.
Trump doesn’t.
Wolfpack
No, I did not. As for 2020 I would only even consider voting for Trump if one of the hard Socialists and identity politics candidates from the Dem party gets the nomination. It would be a defensive vote - it wouldn’t be a vote in his favor.
Federal politics in America is so dysfunctional and corrupt that good conscience may again prevent me from voting for either presidential candidate. The deficit and debt are the clearest indicator that American democracy is faltering. Nether major party is able to lead the country away from the reckoning that must occur due to the criminal mismanagement of the federal debt.
Americans of the last two or three generations are passing on a severe fiscal problem to future generations. The deficits and debt has been accumulated during a period of American global economic dominance unprecedented since the heyday of the British East India Company. GW Bush and Obama’s administrations have locked in annual trillion dollar deficits and neither party has a clue as to how change course.
Did you vote, or if a non-US citizen, would you have voted for Hillary in 2016? Who is your 2020 preference on the Dem side? None of them have shown any indication that the debt is even an important problem. Some have inexplicably expressed the misbegotten notion that sovereign debt is irrelevant.
Serrano
This is all about who is going to get to lose to President Trump in 2020.
bass4funk
Then that would be Pinocchio
Liberals wouldn’t even sit down with the Dear Leader, but if the North would annex it, we know liberals would allow that to happen as well, like they did with Crimea.
lincolnman
Well, yes, some of them are irresponsible when it comes to deficit spending, but others aren't.
And if you go by history, the only recent President to balance the budget and even create a surplus was Dem Bill Clinton.
I guess that's the closest we'll get to a Trumper apology - but please, don't post this clearly false info again - this is the third time we've had to prove you wrong. Save yourself the humiliation...
Don't know why you don't just man-up and admit you were wrong.
bass4funk
Pushing all the joking aside, I think we as a country are way based any reasoning. Obama was the response to Bush and his failures and Trump for Obama’s, like Trump or hate Trump, it’s a very high certainty that none of these socialists can beat Trump. Whoever gets the nomination needs to take a few into account that if they lose to Trump, their Presidential career is over-period, they’ll never get a second chance. Kennedy, Kerry, McCain and Romney know the hard way. If their smart, the ones on the lowest totem pole should bail out, get back into congress and wait a few more years and try again. Either way, both sides are polarizing and there is no one on either side that can bring the country together, NO ONE. Liberals don’t trust this President or any Republican that would get into office and I would never trust the kind of Democrats that are trying to fundamentally change the country, so we are more now as a nation at a very serious impasse, what to do and what are the answers, I certainly don’t have them.
bass4funk
That was the only positive thing and redeeming quality the man had.
None needed, especially if you didn’t do anything wrong, that would be counterproductive.
Jimizo
Fake news.
The last president to balance the books was a Democrat.
As a fiscal conservative, you must be furious about Trump’s spending.
bass4funk
Hardly. Obamacare was one and on any entitlement they spent like a drunken sailor.
and leave a deficit.
No and yes. No, for what he’s trying to do and yes, the deficit is increasing and none of these socialists would bring it down should they (doubtfully) get into office, they’ll just add to it.
SuperLib
The previous "socialist" administration cut the deficit in half. Trump doubled it.
Pretty much sums it up.
bass4funk
And added to the deficit.
And created more jobs and especially in States where the last President neglected a once strong working class.
Pretty much sums it up
SuperLib
It's been fun watching Trump break "fiscal conservatives" over his knee. He exposed one of the supposed cornerstones of the GOP as nothing more than an empty talking point. Even bass is on board with Trump's deficit spending. Never thought I'd see the day considering the hundreds and hundreds of posts he's made trying to convince us he was against it.
Then Trump came along and snap. Are you against deficits? Well....yes and no...
dmacleod
False:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/07/05/trump-is-falling-almost-1-million-jobs-short-vs-obama/#63b7edd58caa
Jimizo
It’s stunning. As I posted earlier, Wolfpack seems to be the only one who still holds to the principle.
The rest just seem to gibber about socialists spending too much when they are asked about Trump spending too much.
bass4funk
Not ok, but I understand you need to break a few eggs if you want to make a cake.
I’m not nor would I ever try to convince you of anything, you believe what you want to believe.
Relax, it’s Sunday.
SuperLib
The problem is that they really only have stereotypes and catchphrases to debate with.
Democrats create deficits!
Uh, actually, Trump is putting Obama to shame with his deficits.
I don't need to hear that liberal crap, we all know Democrats spend like a drunken sailor!
Well here are the hard numbers showing -
I don't need that liberal funded biased voodoo research trying to trick me!
But the numbers clearly show -
Democrats create deficits and that's the way it's always been and will be! Get it??
bass4funk
Don’t think so
https://www.texaspolicy.com/trumps-economy-keeps-humming-manufacturing-adding-more-jobs-than-government-reversing-obama-trend/
https://www.investing.com/news/economy/nearly-95-of-all-job-growth-during-obama-era-part-time,-contract-work-449057
lincolnman
Yea, Clinton created the greatest post-war economy ever - far better than Trump's. And what's the reason Trumpers say they love this President and put up with his moral failings? The economy.... More Trumper hypocrisy...
Really, you said....
Yet, it's easily found that George W. Bush's average GDP was 1.8% from Q1 2001 to Q4 2008.....
So explain to us again how your assertion about Obama is not completely fabricated...
bass4funk
Different time, different world, having sex with interns was also back then acceptable to the Dems.
But now in 2019 and given the stagnation of the last 8 years, Trump preformed in this time era what the other Presidents couldn’t do, create a massive booming economy.
Gee, look at the markets since Trump has been in office, look at the investments 401k, and since he’s lowered the Corporate tax rate, the economy has been on steroids, and the result of that, consumers are spending more money and not sitting on it the way they did over the 8 year drought.
Jimizo
Yes but it does refute you fake news/partisan comment that Democrats never cared about spending - Clinton balanced the books.
As a fiscal conservative, you must have admired this about Clinton.
I still can’t understand why you as a fiscal conservative aren’t furious with Trump for his spending.
agondocz
If you check the Wall Street Journal article from January 29, 2016: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-economic-growth-slows-to-6-9-on-year-in-2015-1453169398 , the near-recession that hit parts of the United States was caused in part by a sharp sell-off in the Chinese stock markets and fears about Chinese debt.
Apparently American exports dropped in 2015 and 2016, rebounding in 2017 (as a result of Chinese economic policies?): https://www.uschina.org/reports/us-exports/national . Meaning that in 2016 there was a drop in American agricultural and manufactured products exports, meaning a possible recession for farmers and blue collar workers. Fear of losing their farms, fear of losing their jobs.
When candidate Trump was on script he won the support of many from these two groups of voters.
(Of course Hilary Clinton could have been a victim of the so-called Tom Bradley effect--voters telling the pollsters one thing but voting for the white guy come election day.)
Perhaps a bit of both.
In 2020, American exports to China down? Maybe. Fear of electing a female presidential candidate??