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Restrictions reimposed as virus resurges in much of Asia

42 Comments
By HUIZHONG WU and ZEN SOO

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Stuck record, but seems like more evidence that variants of the virus will make this an endemic disease and repeated restrictions or "lockdowns" will not eradicate it and, frankly,m not much slow or prevent its spread.

We will have to learn to live with it in the same way we do with other diseases and not overreact every time we have some cases in the community.

0 ( +10 / -10 )

But how many people are dying?

The number of cases is not the pertinent number...

6 ( +14 / -8 )

@kurisupisu

The number of cases is not the pertinent number...

Most people kill viruses with their antibodies before ever showing any symptoms. Many of these people who are a "case" never show symptoms. You are absolutely correct -- number of deaths is the pertinent number.

2 ( +10 / -8 )

I wonder how many waves and new variants would it take before the entire world can consider COVID-19 as just another seasonal flu? I fear that we may just be applying a tourniquet approach (I just made this up) to this pandemic by restricting when cases surge and loosening up when they die down. I know that the Spanish flu went on for more than two years and scarlet fever was deemed fatal back in its heyday.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

All thanks in huge part to the selfish people who won't wear a mask (or wear it under their nose or like a chin-nappy) refuse to understand the asymptomatic dangers of it and just parrot on endlessly of how its no worse than a flu. 5,000+ of them flew from UK to Portugal, most unvaccinated of with just 1 shot. They are going to create another varient in that behaviour. Oh! but warm weather will make it go away, that weak immune systems are the reason you get it, etc etc. Governments around the world are always behind and some are masking its true devestation on thier people. So you have a perfect pandemic in that the ignorance of a minority have assisted in its rapid mutation and spread amoung large swaths of populations.

-3 ( +6 / -9 )

"Hong Kong and Singapore have postponed a quarantine-free travel bubble for a second time after an outbreak in Singapore of uncertain origin."

Nothing uncertain about the origin. SG has a lot of FWs (foreign workers) from India working in construction. Also a lot of FTs (foreign talent but many Singaporeans now call them foreign trash) from India working in banks (both back office and middle office) and financial firms in Raffles and CBP. There is no surprise that the B.1.617.2 variant would become prevalent there.

Singapore should have closed down their borders like NZ and Australia did, but their economy would have suffered. Anyways, their leadership is capable enough and the local Singaporeans are also quite disciplined. They will surely overcome this.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Gen H

You have evidence for the efficacy of masks in slowing the spread or protecting wearers from virus?

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

Stuck record, but seems like more evidence that variants of the virus will make this an endemic disease and repeated restrictions or "lockdowns" will not eradicate it and, frankly,m not much slow or prevent its spread.

The purpose of the lockdowns is not to eradicate the disease, and what is the evidence you mention that lockdowns are not doing "much" to slow or prevent the spread of new variants?

But how many people are dying?

The number of cases is not the pertinent number...

If the purpose is to evaluate the spreading of the disease and the risk of widespread infection so action can be taken before it causes lots of unnecessary deaths, then number of cases definitely is the pertinent number.

It would be irresponsible to pretend nothing is happening and wait until anything you do has a very reduced value to raise the alarm.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173047v3

These factors suggest that face masks and social distance could be paramount in containing the pandemic. We examined the efficacy of each measure and the combination of both measures using an agent-based model within a closed space that approximated real-life interactions. By explicitly considering different fractions of asymptomatic individuals, as well as a realistic hypothesis of face masks protection during inhaling and exhaling, our simulations demonstrate that a synergistic use of face masks and social distancing is the most effective intervention to curb the infection spread. To control the pandemic, we show that practicing social distance is less efficacious than the widespread usage of face masks and that wearing face masks provides optimal protection even if only a small portion of the population comply with social distance. Finally, the face mask effectiveness in curbing the viral spread is not reduced if a large fraction of population is asymptomatic. 

Kaerimashita

Gen H

You have evidence for the efficacy of masks in slowing the spread or protecting wearers from virus?

4 ( +6 / -2 )

https://japantoday.com/category/features/health/Herd-immunity-appears-unlikely-for-COVID-19

Iraira - you quoting from a preprint site on which articles have not been peer reviewed. That good enough for you? Thre are plenty of other sources that seem to show masks are pretty ineffective.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

It’s simply a most widespread but absolutely false theory to think of getting it under control without measures taken or to get used to live with it. Wrong, both parts. We will not live with it, but die from it and we have also not taken any measures until now. Forget finally successful vaccinations worldwide or a herd immunity of 80% +x. You know for yourself that those are stupid illusions. The only way is to eradicate the problem once and for all with a strict lockdown for the time those viruses can survive, and that’s about 70 days , of course a standard deviation or two should be added to be sure. This is a bioterror attack and has to be treated and answered as such. Otherwise you will endlessly count the next and bigger waves and I will count how often you ignore my remarks. That’s of course an option too, but surely one of the worst.

-12 ( +0 / -12 )

Absolutely! You really need to take the time to understand what the MedRXiv and the BioRXiv sites are. They are preprint, but the articles are not tossed out there like a YouTube video. The articles are from major research institutions and universities.

The above article is from researchers at the Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of California, San Francisco. I assume you know better than they do.

Please refute the article and the conclusions drawn therein. Shooting the messenger is not.

Kaerimashita

https://japantoday.com/category/features/health/Herd-immunity-appears-unlikely-for-COVID-19

Iraira - you quoting from a preprint site on which articles have not been peer reviewed. That good enough for you? Thre are plenty of other sources that seem to show masks are pretty ineffective.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

One expert that I follow is Didier Raoult, who is perhaps the top expert of infectious diseases. He is very informative, and one thing his group has done a wonderful job at is exposing the very serious problem of conflicts of interest and bribery. So it's not enough to consider one's intelligence or education, but also conflicts of interest (sincerity, motive...). Same with conflicts of interest in the any studies or data provided to support any point of view. A car salesperson probably knows a lot about cars, but doesn't mean you should believe everything they say...

-11 ( +1 / -12 )

One expert that I follow is Didier Raoult, who is perhaps the top expert of infectious diseases.

According to whom?

Which experts should we look up to back up your other conspiracy theories?

7 ( +9 / -2 )

One expert that I follow is Didier Raoult, who is perhaps the top expert of infectious diseases.

He isn't. He has widely been condemned and actually sued by the french Ordre des Médecins for spreading false information and generally having lost his mind (I'm paraphrasing).

3 ( +6 / -3 )

One expert that I follow is Didier Raoult, who is perhaps the top expert of infectious diseases.

According to whom?

Many experts say that he is, and there is this:

https://www.webometrics.info/en/hlargerthan100

He isn't. He has widely been condemned and actually sued by the french Ordre des Médecins for spreading false information and generally having lost his mind (I'm paraphrasing).

Yes, he is often attacked by people linked to big pharma ever since he showed the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine against covid19. A highly pharma funded researcher Prof Raffi has already been convicted and fined for harassing Prof Raoult.

-8 ( +2 / -10 )

According to whom?

Many experts say that he is

Who are these experts? Give us the names.

Enlighten us.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

Yes, he is often attacked by people linked to big pharma

The "Ordre des Médecins" has no links to big pharma. It is simply the national association of doctors and medical professionals. Didier Raoult has as much links to big pharma than any other member of the association.

ever since he showed the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquine against covid19

Hydroxychloroquine doesn't work against covid-19. Stop spreading false information.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/hydroxychloroquine-does-not-benefit-adults-hospitalized-covid-19

7 ( +10 / -3 )

The "Ordre des Médecins" has no links to big pharma.

Their members certainly do have conflicts of interest.

The effectiveness of HCQ has been demonstrated in numerous large scale studies since the one you linked to. The general protocol is HCQ + azithromycin and it must be given early. Your study gave only HCQ to patients starting sometime within 10 days of confirmation of infection (not what I would call early).

-8 ( +1 / -9 )

It actually is so useless that Oklahoma is in the process of returning all of its stock of HCQ (1.2 million doses) to get a refund from the company it bought it from.

Wow, Oklahoma!

About half the world lives in countries where covid19 is largely treated with Raoult's protocol. BTW, they happen to also have lower death rates...

But if Oklahoma rejected it...

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

About half the world lives in countries where covid19 is largely treated with Raoult's protocol. BTW, they happen to also have lower death rates...

But if Oklahoma rejected it...

And even more than that live in countries where viral colds are treated with antibiotics, that does absolutely nothing to prove they are right, for that you need scientific proof, for HCQ there is no longer any doubt, it is useless to treat COVID-19 patients and no recognized insitutions of science or medicine in the world still defends this possibility as real, much less as confirm it.

Even Raoult had to accept that his own study actually proved HCQ was useless to prevent complications and death from the patients, he signed of conformity in the re-analysis done after he manipulated the data to hide this fact and this re-analysis explicitly recognized the number of patients is enough to see an effect it there was anything present. Being ethically challenged he may want to backpedal from signed declarations, but they are still there for the world to see. HCQ is useless for COVID according to him.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

I don't know why people are bashing HCQ and ivermectin by only referring to regulatory bodies that don't always have the latest data available, seems promising (should be down to doctors anyway):

https://trialsitenews.com/do-the-nih-and-who-covid-treatment-recommendations-need-to-be-fixed/

As for this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.12.20173047v3.full

It's a model.

Try some real world data like this: https://www.covidchartsquiz.com/

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

Even Raoult had to accept that his own study actually proved HCQ was useless to prevent complications and death from the patients...

HCQ is useless for COVID according to him.

I'm very surprised you are still pushing this constant misrepresentation of Raoult's views despite my showing you many times his exact words about his preliminary study:

"... a comparative analysis between a small group treated with hydroxychloroquine and another small group not treated with hydroxychloroquine showing a significant decrease of viral shedding after 6 days of therapy.

Surprisingly, despite the very small size of the group, the addition of azithromycin made a difference on the endpoint we chose, which is the disappearance of the viral load in the pharynx that is the only data that can be analyzed on a small group. Indeed, neither mortality, nor the passage in intensive care unit, nor the duration of the treatment can be evaluated on such a small group."

So your comment is a complete misrepresentation, when you interpret "neither mortality, nor the passage in intensive care unit, nor the duration of the treatment can be evaluated on such a small group" as meaning "that his own study actually proved HCQ was useless to prevent complications and death from the patients" and "HCQ is useless for COVID according to him."

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

TV footage of spraying the streets in Taiwan with chemicals or whatever virus killer is in my opinion completely useless but just keeps the feeling of fear for some. Wonder how much it is efficient but the virus is inside the people bodies, not lying on the pavement or standing in the air, as it spreads quickly with the wind. Spraying the streets was largely done in China, but also some others countries where it had no effect

3 ( +5 / -2 )

Just yesterday Pres. Biden stated the US would start exporting vaccines in the tens of millions. In my opinion, America should ramp up production of the highly efficacious Pfizer and Moderna vaccines so that hundreds of millions can be exported monthly. Anything less than that will see huge, devastating outbreaks in Asia, Africa, and South America.

I am not opposed in principle to the use of the vaccines from Russia and China, but recent reviews of their effectiveness in actual use have shown that they are disappointing. The Chinese vaccine in one study was shown to be effective at a rate of less than 50%, as opposed to the 95% and higher rates of Pfizer and Moderna. There have been reports that the Russian vaccine was very disappointing, both in effectiveness, and in quality control. It would be better for everyone if effective vaccines were made in multiple places, but so far that has not worked out. Given the recent relaxation of patent laws concerning the effective vaccines, I hope that Russia and China will forego national pride and turn their resources over to making the best vaccines.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

While this is how Asia is responding to new infection in contrast to the US who are almost celebrating that they can now remove their mask after vaccination. Even though they still have around 20k+ infection daily. And are boasting how everything is opening back up again. You gotta admire their spirit when they are not even faze anymore by the sheer amount of fatality happening every day.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Just yesterday Pres. Biden stated the US would start exporting vaccines in the tens of millions.

Wasn't the US supposed to start exporting eons ago?

0 ( +1 / -1 )

I think the proper thing to do is stay panicked.

I, for one, will not be leaving the house for another calendar year nor be allowing my family inside. They will be using the tent I have erected on the front lawn until June, 2022.

I just fear this is not nearly enough.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

What about Phillipines and Indonesia???.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

'm very surprised you are still pushing this constant misrepresentation of Raoult's views despite my showing you many times his exact words about his preliminary study:

That is not a representation, it is explicitly written as such in the re-analysis and Raoult signed as an author that he accepted the re-analysis as justified and correct. This means he explicitly accepts he was wrong by arguing that ICU use and death could not be evaluated. If he did not accept this correction he would have not signed, but obviously he did, so he accepted he was wrong and unjustified in trying to hide those results, and this acceptance remains so as long as he keep his name in the re-evaluation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7779282/

His name is still there, that means he is still saying he was wrong in hiding the information.

TV footage of spraying the streets in Taiwan with chemicals or whatever virus killer is in my opinion completely useless but just keeps the feeling of fear for some.

Why the "fear"? it is much more easier to think useless but ostentatious measures are meant to calm down people so they will feel safer because "something" is being done. If the purpose was to instill fear the opposite would be much more effective (promoting the fact that spraying can't reduce the risk from the virus at all).

1 ( +3 / -2 )

I don't know why people are bashing HCQ and ivermectin by only referring to regulatory bodies that don't always have the latest data available, seems promising (should be down to doctors anyway):

And what regulatory bodies or well recognized institutions of science and medicine support the drugs as effective? It would not be rational to pretend not a single one of those institutions have access to the latest information, even when they themselves produce or publish it.

There is data that clearly supports ivermectin as useful, and the latest data already proved HCQ to be useless, and no, doctors do not have access to thousands of thousands of cases nor they regularly have the capacity to run the epidemiological and statistical analysis to distinguish between real effects and background noise.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

No, he accepted to include the effects on mortality and passage to ICU, and he did so and he included:

"Indeed, neither mortality, nor the passage in intensive care unit, nor the duration of the treatment can be evaluated on such a small group."

For you to interpret this as him accepting that HCQ is useless is a mischaracterization.

Plus, that was his first preliminary study, over a year ago. He and others have since done so much more investigation of HCQ. In a recent interview when asked whether he has changed his mind about HCQ, he said "not at all" (in French) followed by a description of several large scale studies that have shown very positive effects.

Raoult certainly does NOT consider HCQ to be useless for COVID.

As long as Asian countries use HCQ, they will be able to handle the increase in cases with minor casualties.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

No, he accepted to include the effects on mortality and passage to ICU, and he did so and he included:

"Indeed, neither mortality, nor the passage in intensive care unit, nor the duration of the treatment can be evaluated on such a small group."

That is false, this is not included in the re-analysis that he signed of conformity.

Instead it is written

We agree with colleagues that clinical outcomes are also key elements to consider when assessing the effect of hydroxychloroquine-azythromycin (HCQ-AZ) combination [1]. To this end, we reanalyzed our data on all patients enrolled in our study (n=42) and, in addition to viral clearance over time, we analyzed clinical outcomes, including the need for oxygen therapy, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU), death and length of stay at hospital. Requirement for oxygen therapy, transfer to ICU and death did not significantly differ between groups.

What is the purpose of misrepresenting the correction he published about his mistaken attempts to hide valid and pertinent information? The link is there so anybody can see your quote is not included there and instead he wrote that the results are necessary.

He literally, explicitly, says he was wrong and that he could and should have included data that proves no effect from HCQ, his ability to learn from those mistakes is probably too low, but so has been for the myriad of other problems he has in his unethical and manipulated studies, so this is not a surprise. Not being able to grow out of his mistakes do not negates that he had to accept to be mistaken. The important part is that he had to sign of acceptance of this mistaken and that in no place in the correction he said these results could not be evaluated, on the contrary the study even makes it clear that HCQ comes with serious risk of complications and death that were not adequately addressed.

2 ( +4 / -2 )

The Chinese vaccine in one study was shown to be effective at a rate of less than 50%, as opposed to the 95% and higher rates of Pfizer and Moderna

Have you seen any recent videos from China? They are all out and about, living their lives to the fullest, no masks, no restrictions. So please, don't make unsupported statements.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Raw Beer's and Virusrex's quotes of Raoult say more or less the same this, and nowhere did he ever admit that HCQ is useless.

Today, Raoult believes in the effectiveness of HCQ.

Troubling that pharma linked people are trying so hard to discredict the effectiveness of HCQ.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

Today, Raoult believes in the effectiveness of HCQ.

Well by this time he should have more than just belief in the effectiveness of HCQ, he should have established its effectiveness already.

You make him sound like a quack.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

If HCQ was effective, the world would be using it to fight covid. Americans are so silly that they think Trump's politicization of the medicine is going to push or prevent doctors everywhere else in the world outside America from exploring it's efficacy in fighting the virus. But ok, go on thinking you guys really matter that much to us. America is number one, right?

1 ( +3 / -2 )

The left wing mainstream media have been blaming everything coronavirus on Modi and the wider Indian right wing, despite the fact that highly safe countries (Singapore, Taiwan) and highly vaccinated countries (Seychelles...) are experiences surges due to the Indian variant. Absolutely disgusting thing to do during a middle of a pandemic where men, women and children are dying in their droves. I hope Israel wipes Gaza and left wing news media off the face of the earth.

Compare the mess that India is in, with the development and organization of Israel. India and Modi need to copy the Israelis and take a tougher stand on Muslims. The fact that India can't even bring itself to support Israel against terrorists show me everything about Modi and the Indian right wing.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Have you seen any recent videos from China?

Anyone trusting videos from China is as big a moron as anyone in the planet. The only videos getting out of China are those that show exactly what the CCP wants to show.

You don't actually trust the CCP do you? You'd have to be as stupid as any person on this planet if you do.

Unless you're CCP yourself. In which case, your comment above would simply be pushing their propaganda. Were you trying to push CCP propaganda?

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Raw Beer's and Virusrex's quotes of Raoult say more or less the same this, and nowhere did he ever admit that HCQ is useless.

That would be hugely mistaken. The review of the article with his signature of acceptance literally says

" clinical outcomes are also key elements to consider "

"we reanalyzed our data on all patients enrolled in our study"

"Requirement for oxygen therapy, transfer to ICU and death did not significantly differ between groups."

This obviously means the analysis is not only possible but necessary, contrary to what he previously said, and the conclusions is that it does not help the patients, something with scientific significance. This is again a complete contradiction from saying the analysis was not possible nor that it would have any meaning.

People can keep wrongs beliefs for many different reasons, that does not make those beliefs any less wrong, for that scientific data is necessary, and the data on HCQ is clear, it helps nothing and brings extra risks to the patients.

In comparison restrictions like the ones being used again in the countries mentioned in the article are much more effective at preventing cases, complications and deaths, and this has scientific basis.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

He literally, explicitly, says he was wrong and that he could and should have included data that proves no effect from HCQ,

He never says he was wrong or that HCQ does not work. Every quote you provided is 100% consistent with what I wrote. The purpose of his preliminary study was to look at HCQ's effect on viral load. HCQ showed a very strong effect on viral load. After complaints, he accepted to include clinical results despite the very small number of patients.

He never said HCQ does not work.

If HCQ was effective, the world would be using it to fight covid.

Actually, much of the world is using it, because it is effective.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

He never says he was wrong or that HCQ does not work. Every quote you provided is 100% consistent with what I wrote. 

The quotes are there and are self evident, if he signed agreeing that the new analysis is valid, necessary and that it demonstrate HCQ has no usefulness for COVID-19 that definitely means he is contradicting his previous statements, the only logical conclusion is that he was wrong and now he had to recognize it.

He never said HCQ does not work.

He signed on a study that demonstrated it did not work. If he failed to say it with as many words it is not important, the data he produced shows it for anybody even when he tried to hide it first.

And again, there are doctors in every country that use things demonstrated as useless, saying they are doing the same with HCQ is only proof of their lack of professionalism, not that the drug is useful, if that were the case antibiotics would be "proven" effective against common colds in the same way.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

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