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Second wave of coronavirus infections feared around world

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By ERIC TUCKER and CARLA K. JOHNSON

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More unnecessary fear mongering.

Despite claims of potentially "millions" dying from the coronavirus, the total dead have only been a fraction of that.

I can see all the stay at home and mask wearing guidelines a month ago. But if we continue with this path it is setting us towards a collapse in the world economy that will do far greater damage in the long run than what this virus can do. Overwhelming majority of those who get the coronavirus eventually recover and many of these never even show symptoms.

We need to get the economy back on track again, open up the world and let nature take its course in herd immunity.

-17 ( +14 / -31 )

The U.S. has recorded over 70,000 deaths and 1.2 million confirmed infections, while Europe has reported over 140,000 dead.

The rich, clean, advanced countries with modern medical systems are the worst hit.

The former Communist Bloc, including Eastern Europe are doing much better and the third world has fewer cases and deaths per capita.

-11 ( +10 / -21 )

The former Communist Bloc, including Eastern Europe are doing much better and the third world has fewer cases and deaths per capita.

Never mind the published statistics. The only real way to know is to look at number of deaths (total) in a given country in say April for each of the past 5 years. Many countries are not reporting deaths properly.

17 ( +19 / -2 )

Situations vary among countries on a second wave.

For the sake of better preparation for a future outbreak, the effect of lockdown and its details should be scrutinized. In fact, a rising number of studies have provided more negative findings on it. An example below:

Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1?fbclid=IwAR1vtQOfJSefpZY_Pb5GfKZ8_CvCgI6myYPOtPAQgaFcYUhBOM-ieeZ240k

-10 ( +3 / -13 )

More unnecessary fear mongering.

Individual readers are responsible for how they interpret and respond to media reports.

The former Communist Bloc,

Who knows what is actually going on behind the heavily oiled curtains of the Russian Federation and some of its former colonies. Especially when a powerful state controls or 'partially' controls media and access to information.

9 ( +15 / -6 )

I would like to re-post something and give credit to the original poster. I believe a 2nd wave is very possible and almost a certainty (based on what happened in Singapore) however nothing is 100% certain.

The article shared by Luis David Yanez is quite good actually and I read it twice as it is both informative and interesting.

Luis David YanezMay 4  08:44 pm JST

For all talking of a "Second wave" as if it was something inevitable, a little bit of science for you:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/

10 ( +10 / -0 )

Seems Japan is on its second wave already. First wave was allowing Wuhan tourists in during the Chinese new year for their cash and then the government was too slow and lax by allowing visitors from Europe and the states. Lets hope Abe finally learns from this and we don't get a third wave !

-1 ( +4 / -5 )

@Burning Bush. I just can't stop thinking about this. I really don't know why. It could be the BCG vaccine, like Spain vs Portugal, Ireland vs England etc.. but France is difficult to explainable.

Then there is this over-reporting of deaths in hopes to monetize on vaccine theory but then you have Italy which likely will not produce a vaccine.

Is the clean rich world (assuming Japan is a bit dirty, which true in a way) missing some microorganism in their bodies that makes the difference. Any thoughts appreciated.

-13 ( +2 / -15 )

@Burning Bush One other theory could be US, UK, France and Italy aren't as clean as we think

-16 ( +3 / -19 )

The former Communist Bloc, including Eastern Europe are doing much better and the third world has fewer cases and deaths per capita.

Not sure about that. It started late, bit it's taken a pretty terrifying grip on Russia, where it now seems to be out of control.

13 ( +14 / -1 )

More unnecessary fear mongering.

The numbers dying in London last month were pretty much double what they were a year ago. That is not fear mongering but real deaths.

Unless we get a vaccine, millions will die, especially if we return to normal.

It may be a sacrifice that we have to take, bit it isn't great mongering.

13 ( +17 / -4 )

Who knows, maybe this is already the 2nd wave. Just recently a guy in France was proven to be infected by Covid-19 already in December: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52526554 . Maybe the virus was in circulation way before that time already.

2 ( +3 / -1 )

This time, I would definitely check for both the virus and antibodies in the local rats. They like densely populated cities , also maybe they hold the answer to how we got the European strain. Maybe it jumped from a chinese tourist to a rat and from a rat to human again.

-11 ( +1 / -12 )

One additional thing.....to the health care workers in the photo for this article....wow....a lot of heroic efforts being made by doctors, nurses, assistants right now. Imagine being in their position - day after day.....

8 ( +8 / -0 )

For the sake of better course of action on a second, third wave, we definitely need a better, more upgraded statistical model. The UK and the US task force teams have failed to predict, and modified their numerical outcomes (previously largely underestimated). By contrast, in Japan the expert panel has also failed to predict the outcomes (previously largely overestimated).

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

I remember watching the Korean president talking about Test, Trace, Isolate back in late January.

3 and a half months later America, Brazil and Britain have now got to the point of decent testing. And are congratulating themselves on that. Not sure they realise that to stop deaths tracing and isolating are the important things. Crazier and crazier to watch every day. Japan is doing moderately well. Not good but not terrible.

Let's wait to see effect of Golden Week travel

6 ( +8 / -2 )

The former Communist Bloc, including Eastern Europe are doing much better 

Russia 165,000 cases , 1500 deaths

Don't let facts get in your way.

10 ( +10 / -0 )

"Around the world, German authorities began drawing up plans . . ."

This is more worrying. The Germans seem to have taken over. And we never noticed.

-3 ( +2 / -5 )

Authoritarians will use the fear of a second wave to justify more lockdowns and overreaches. Beware!

3 ( +8 / -5 )

Eastern bloc is getting hit hard ...Russia's hospitals and front line staff are also dying in large numbers.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

Ah_so and compatriots are probably right. Given the efficacy rate of the annual flu vaccine of about 35% and the actual recipients of said vaccine way south of the "herd" 60%, so any vacine for Covid should likely trackthose figures.

I think the only path forward for humanity is to shelter in place and use Zoom.

I personally submit that canines should inherit the stewardship of the planet once we all starve.

-4 ( +1 / -5 )

As things stand, I think the disease is under control in Japan. Given that Japan has managed this in a haphazard manner with little social distancing and testing, the simplest explanation would be that the version of Covid-19 overseas is different and more virulent to the one in Japan (and possibly other Asian countries).

I could certainly see a larger second wave hitting if international travel restarted.

-3 ( +1 / -4 )

During the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, the United States experienced the first wave of cases in the spring, followed by a second, larger wave in the fall and winter, during flu season.

Yale University published a paper comparing Covid-19 to the 1918 Swine Flu pandemic. Take a look at the chart in the PDF below. Look at the difference is size between the first and second wave that the US experienced. Compare the first wave to what we have now and see how much more horrific the second wave could be in November - December.

COVID-19: INVESTMENT AND FEDERAL LEADERSHIP TO OPEN THE ECONOMY AND PREVENT A SECOND (OR THIRD) WAVE OF THE PANDEMIC

Steven Berry, Zack Cooper

Yale University

April 15, 2020

"There is a strong consensus among mainstream economists that the “first rule of pandemic economics” is to fight the cause of our economic problems: the COVID-19 virus itself. The recent two trillion dollar short-term financial aid bill was critical to offset the tremendous economic suffering caused by the enforced shutdown of so much of our economy. However, it did little to address the underlying cause of the crisis.

In our opinion, we should be willing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars directly to fight the virus. This funding should be allocated towards vastly expanding testing, contact tracing, the production of medical equipment, and the developments of vaccines and treatments. Spending at this level is orders of magnitude larger than the present efforts and is proportional to the challenges we are facing and harm generated by COVID-19.

Most deaths from the 1918 Flu came during its second wave. A second substantial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US would trigger a second large-scale lockdown and necessitate another round of costly stimulus. This would be a body blow to an already reeling economy to say nothing of the devastating health consequences."

https://tobin.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/20200415_Tobin_Public_Statement.pdf

2 ( +4 / -2 )

So Japan was meant to turn into Italy, then Spain then New York then the uk.

People watching cherry blossoms were murderers and surfing was the most selfish thing you could do.

Give it a break already, the first wave wasn't bad for 99.99% of people and neither will be second.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

Who knows what is actually going on behind the heavily oiled curtains... Especially when a powerful state controls or 'partially' controls media and access to information.

Think you just accurately described Japan here also.

7 ( +7 / -0 )

The former Communist Bloc, including Eastern Europe are doing much better and the third world has fewer cases and deaths per capita.

I think the Swedes are doing a good job as well handling this pandemic, fewer cases, not closing down all establishments, people are practicing social distancing and still have the freedom to move and it seems to be working.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

Unless you are in a Swedish retirement home.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

unless you are in almost any retirement home, other than that one in Texas where nearly everyone recovered.

Nursing homes are like ships on land, both are terrible places for the spread of this virus.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Tens of thousands of old people have died in care homes across Europe.

bass4funk

I think the Swedes are doing a good job as well handling this pandemic, fewer cases, not closing down all establishments, people are practicing social distancing and still have the freedom to move and it seems to be working.

The Swedes are not practicing social distancing. In Japan you have called for a tight lockdown, why the opposite?

Swedes have had to pay in terms of Covid-19 fatalities. Sweden’s 2,586 deaths compare poorly with Denmark’s 452, and Norway’s 207. Taking population into account, Sweden has suffered more deaths per million people than the U.S. (although deaths aren't always counted in the same way).

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Despite claims of potentially "millions" dying from the coronavirus, the total dead have only been a fraction of that.

Utterly ignoring the fact that if lockdowns, self-isolation, social distancing, closure of international borders and bans on international and other travel had not been taken, the toll would have been a much larger "fraction" than it is. We've got an absolute minimum figure of over 260,000 dead worldwide at the moment, including hundreds and maybe thousands of health and other frontline workers - how many dead does it take to make some people take it seriously?

And it's not over!

0 ( +4 / -4 )

The Swedes are not practicing social distancing.

They were, not in the way the rest of the world has obsessively been doing, but they were.

In Japan you have called for a tight lockdown, why the opposite?

Because, Japan is more crowded, more clusters, more people that aren’t practicing safe distancing, the country is not doing full testing, the country is not being completely transparent when it comes to the numbers when it comes to people infected or the people that have died, so it’s not the same thing completely different you can’t compare a country with 8 million people to 125 million where you have the government that is beyond sketchy, less informative and unwilling to take extra nary precautions in measures to tighten and control the spread of the virus, Japan acted late when it declared the semi-lockdown.

-4 ( +2 / -6 )

Unless you are in a Swedish retirement home.

People in retirement homes are generally already in death's waiting room, with numerous health problems. Perhaps the Swedes decided it made little sense to spread death, poverty and misery throughout the entire population in the (unproven) hope that it might extend the lives of a few elderly people by some small amount.

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

I can see all the stay at home and mask wearing guidelines a month ago. But if we continue with this path it is setting us towards a collapse in the world economy that will do far greater damage in the long run than what this virus can do.

The collapse was inevitable even without this pandemic. Now they have the virus to blame, rather than the corrupt banking system.

The rich, clean, advanced countries with modern medical systems are the worst hit.

Might be related to the overall health (and age) of the population. Apparently, over 40% of the "Covid-19" deaths around New York were obese, and many of the others had other health issues before getting infected.

It started late, bit it's taken a pretty terrifying grip on Russia, where it now seems to be out of control.

The timings of infection spikes seem to coincide with weather.

3 ( +5 / -2 )

People in retirement homes are generally already in death's waiting room, with numerous health problems. Perhaps the Swedes decided it made little sense to spread death, poverty and misery throughout the entire population in the (unproven) hope that it might extend the lives of a few elderly people by some small amount.

This epidemic really seems to have brought out into the open those people who feel qualified to judge when another person's life is of no further use, either to the wider community or to themselves. I wonder whether those people who have the confidence to make those life and death calls on other human beings would feel the same way if it was their own life hanging in the balance. I think not.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

.This epidemic really seems to have brought out into the open those people who feel qualified to judge when another person's life is of no further use, either to the wider community or to themselves.

This epidemic also seems to have brought out a lot of preachy do gooders.

Unless you sent this comment by regular mail, the electronic device your using was made in a factory that most likely has caused deaths and pollution.

The materials in the device come from mines where death and injury frequently occur and pollution is again severe.

The truck your phone was delivered in causes air pollution which kills, and don't forget the road accidents caused by delivery trucks.

So get off your high horse.

-4 ( +6 / -10 )

This epidemic really seems to have brought out into the open those people who feel qualified to judge when another person's life is of no further use, either to the wider community or to themselves.

I agree. Shutting down the economy is one such example. That way, the poor people can take the brunt. But they probably deserve it, right? You are criticizing people for making the same call you do, albeit with different results.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Germany and other experts already making plans to battle a second wave, and preparing. Countries like the US in particular, and Japan? Still trying to think about starting to battle the FIRST, with priorities being on reopening business for political points.

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Shutting down the economy is one such example. That way, the poor people can take the brunt. But they probably deserve it, right?

I grew up poor, buddy. I know what it's like to have very little. I've seen a lot of old (working-class) people decline and die over the past few years. None of them wanted to go, no matter how miserable their lives might have looked to outsiders. They were contributors to what they thought was a civilized society and they would have expected, in the current climate, to be looked after and protected once they got old. And they were right, that's the way it's supposed to be.

Carefully managed economic comebacks should be undertaken whenever countries start to seriously flatten their infection curves. Sooner or later the world will find its feet and things will improve. What you don't want in order to salvage your economy is to have let your old and vulnerable die so you can get there. Because those people won't be coming back, and it will be your society's fault for not looking after them.

-1 ( +5 / -6 )

.....force governments to clamp back down.

What!!?? Are you kidding? The government has no legal right to force anyone to stay in thier house, lose thier job/business, not go to school or engage in any other legal activity! We alone have the right to refrain from doing things through fear of catching a disease.

If you are afraid if Covid-19 or anything else then stay home, take a vaccine or other measures. But no idea has the right to force me or anyone else to do likewise.

We should expect though that we try our best to practice high standards of hygiene and sanitation and isolate ourselves if actually sick.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

carpslidy:

This epidemic also seems to have brought out a lot of preachy do gooders.

If reminding people like you that the lives of old or sick people are worth something, then I'll take the description of "preachy do-gooder" as a badge of honour. Thanks.

It's not clear what the rest of your honourable post has to do with the subject, so I'll let it pass.

1 ( +7 / -6 )

@BigYen None of what you said changes the fact that you are making choices in choosing who lives and who dies by voting for a lockdown. (If it were democratically decided.) I am all for looking after and protecting the elderly. But ultimately, there is no protection from death. This reasoning is the same people use when they choose do disconnect themselves or a loved one from artificial life support. The small bit of extra life isn't worth it. Death with dignity and all that.

Instead, you are choosing to pass the pain onto all of society. And, as I said, he efficacy of such an approach is far from proven. Because of poverty, people will die. They won't want to die either. Very few people do. And they won't be coming back either.

You are just refusing to acknowledge the choices as they are, and pretending that there is a good choice where everybody lives happily ever after.

Aside from the strict life and death decisions, you are also encouraging the advancement of martial law, the deprivation of the basic human right to survive, and state control of the economy (which has always worked so well in the past).

I am not, as you imply, suggesting we don't give people the best medical care possible. I am simply saying it's dishonest to supplement that care by spreading the misery (many times fold) among the general population without acknowledging the suffering that causes. Surely, if you really grew up poor, you might be able to imagine that.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

yes the lives of old or sick people have always been highly valued.

We have quarantined them away from everyone else to protect them, given them skilled doctors and staff dedicated to their 24/7 care and..... everyone else goes about their daily lives.

Why do I now need to stay home to protect these people? Business are closed that these people would never frequent.

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

We don't have the freedom to infringe on the freedoms of others by spreading the virus.

There is a difference between nursing homes and care homes. Some could survive for 20 years in a care home.

-2 ( +4 / -6 )

This epidemic really seems to have brought out into the open those people who feel qualified to judge when another person's life is of no further use, either to the wider community or to themselves

Ill make it simple for you,

You tell people they are terrible for accepting that the risk of death to some old people in return for a functioning economy and freedom is disgusting.

Yet who clearly haven't comprehended people died putting the phone you are typing on in your hand. No one calls you a killer.

Yet, you are saying that people who want to work or go shopping are willfully killing people.

Your argument is basically, we all 100% responsible for all deaths within that society thus we must alter all aspects of our life to reduce death as much as possible.

Sorry but if you drive a car, speed, burn fossil fuels, use electronics, smoke, have taken illegal drugs, buy goods from sweatshops, keep more than the salary you need for food

You are not taking responsiblity.

-3 ( +4 / -7 )

We don't have the freedom to infringe on the freedoms of others by spreading the virus.

What on earth does that mean? Are you saying that all people should, in principle, be subject to house arrest and deprived of their ability to make a living because there is a chance they might have a virus? Why stop with Covid-19? We have deadly flu viruses every year. Let's lock everyone up. Forever. But since that will leave no economy, I suppose we can have work camps like North Korea. Of course, viruses spread there too. Eventually enough will die from starvation that we will have natural social distancing. Is that the plan?

0 ( +7 / -7 )

commanteer:

This reasoning is the same people use when they choose do disconnect themselves or a loved one from artificial life support.

I certainly support the right of those who disconnect from life in that decision. Point is, it's either their decision, or the decision of a loved one who in most cases will know that that's what their loved one wanted. Not yours or mine.

Instead, you are choosing to pass the pain onto all of society.

Yes. That's correct. That's part of what a community (aka society) is about when times are bad.

Because of poverty, people will die.

People die as a result of poverty as it's experienced in the Third World. Not in developed countries, which is what we're talking about. As I said (and it was true) I grew up poor. I never knew anyone who died from poverty. And while we're at it, I've also had periods of unemployment, as have many people I've known. No-one died from that, either.

you are also encouraging the advancement of martial law, the deprivation of the basic human right to survive, and state control of the economy (which has always worked so well in the past).

You're over-reaching. Which country do you live in, that has such a weak democratic tradition?

You are just refusing to acknowledge the choices as they are, and pretending that there is a good choice where everybody lives happily ever after.

No. As I clearly stated in my last post:

Carefully managed economic comebacks should be undertaken whenever countries start to seriously flatten their infection curves.

I accept that that means that some people may die who otherwise would not have. But if you hold off until the containment stage of the epidemic (which for countries which have managed this properly seems to be a few months) you mostly manage to avoid needless deaths. If you mismanage it like Sweden, or the United States, or the United Kingdom, you don't. No happily ever after. Just the best we can do.

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Russia 165,000 cases , 1500 deaths

Don't let facts get in your way.

Russia reports to have administered 4,633,731 tests for covid 19 with positive results in 165,929 (3.58%) tests and negative results in 4,467,802 (96.42%).

With the total number of cases at 165,929 and a total number of deaths at 1537 the death rate among those with a positive test result is 0.93%. The infection rate per million of population is 0.1137% and the death rate per million of population is 0.0011%

0 ( +4 / -4 )

We don't have the freedom to infringe on the freedoms of others by spreading the virus.

That would then mean the following...

We would need to institute lockdowns every flu season to prevent the 1 million annual worldwide flu deaths.

No one would be allowed to drive, in order to prevent the more than 1 million annual worldwide traffic deaths. (Society would grind to a halt.)

Male gay sex would be illegal in order to prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS.

Etc.

I don't think this is feasible at least and a gross violation of people's rights at most.

In order to limit the spread of covid-19, the flu, or any other disease let's encourage the practice of high standards of hygiene and sanitation, healthy life styles and isolation of those actually sick.

0 ( +6 / -6 )

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