Taiwan defense minister says military relations with China at lowest point in 4 decades

Back in 2019 a Japanese source suggested China would take Taiwan in 2025 and Okinawa in 2045. The big concern is how China's intentions and timescale may be altered by the Covid pandemic. Possibly delayed or possibly sooner.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3617624

Wumao commentaries notwithstanding, the Taiwan issue is quickly reaching the point of no peaceful resolution. And Xi Jing Ping is painting himself into a corner with no exit.

The free world of course stands with Taiwan and will be at your side and help to defend by all means.

China continues to beat war drums. Jinping Xi cant handle that Taiwan prefers not to be under CCP and his rule. The world is watching how China deals with a democracy that continues to value it's freedom of choice and refuses to capitulate to Chinese demands. The CCP has no legal right to attack or invade peaceful Taiwan. It is not CCP territory. If China does attack a democratic independent nation, will it stop at just one?

The world must get together and inform China that any attack on Taiwan will mean the complete cessation of trade and an embargo on China until Taiwan is free again. China will never be trusted again by any world leader with any modicum of sense or morality, and no nation will allow itself to be bullied by China as the world is forced to work together to deal with the evil CCP.

Jinping has to determine what is in China's best interests. To become a hated and despised nation for destroying Taiwan and killing hundreds of thousands of innocent people, or to become a decent upstanding nation and recognize that Taiwan's people must determine it's future and if that is along side China or not.

Taiwan should go nuclear and the problem solved.

China says it will not invade Taiwan provided America does not recognise it as a separate country.

China said it would not militarize the man made islands it illegally built in the South China Sea.

China lied.

China says it is not doing anything wrong to the Uighur's.

China is lying.

I would trust nothing that the CCP says. It is lead by untrustworthy and morally corrupt individuals.

Taiwan - QUAD, AUKUS and the free world are right behind you.

Morally yes.

Rest assured, if the Commies start anything, even if they as much as lift a finger, we all have your back.

I dont think they will, but they will consult urgently with emergency meetings. QUAD is not a military alliance. AUKUS is a military alliance but I would be surprised if it stated in it's charter that it will defend Taiwan no matter what.

But I am sure that Taiwan would appreciate that some like @Fighto! will actively take up arms in it's defense. If only there were a few million more.

@Fighto!

Unlikely, the "rest of the free world" (which is where exactly?) doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country independent of China either. I don't think most countries are going to step in against China if they do flex their muscles.

Not that I think they realistically would unless the secessionists gain a lot more traction than they have now.

As long as Taiwan is willing to maintain the status quo, they probably will. If integration parties win power, I am sure China would be happy to oblige though.

Unlikely, the "rest of the free world" (which is where exactly?) doesn't recognize Taiwan as a country independent of China either.

Not true. Most recognize Taiwan is independently run and has never been under CCP rule.

Most have diplomatic relations with China rather than Taiwan, for business purposes only. China like's to hold that up as something to back it's wrongful stance that Taiwan is Chinese territory.

The people of the world not swayed by the business requirements of their own governments, regard Taiwan as independent and sovereign and would much prefer that their nations recognized Taiwan as such.

The planes that have been flying over Taiwan have the effect of keeping the status quo which is what the majority of the citizens in Taiwan want over reunification and Independence, if the latter entails war.

Taiwan has a national holiday coming up. The planes serve as a reminder that independence means war. That is all. After October 10th, things will talk of war will die down but be brought up again from time to time.

In the Anglo-Irish War, the Irish fought for their Independence and won.

The same is true with the Filipinos; there was the Norwegian Swedish War to gain independence,

Algeria from France, the PRC fought and became independent from ROC (Taiwan),

Bangladesh, Brazil, Finland, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Greece, Haiti, Israel. and so on.

War is the ritual you have to go through to become independent nation.

Why war, why not through peaceful means? That would be reunification.

*Taiwan is already an independent state and so this case is different. It is not a war of independence like the above but China overtaking another state.

This argument is true as Taiwan is a de facto nation, but by law, and in the rules based international order, by law, Taiwan is a part of China and not recognized by the UN or any of the countries of anyone commenting here.

None of anyone's countries here has an embassy in Taiwan.

China said it would not militarize the man made islands it illegally built in the South China Sea.

China lied.

China said they’d respect the one country two systems for Hong Kong

China lied

War is the ritual you have to go through to become independent nation.

There is a long list of nations gaining independence without war.

Australia, New Guinea, New Zealand, Canada, Fiji, suffice to say it is a long list.

China should talk to the UK about it. The UK learned from the US war for independence that it is pointless to fight.

Has anyone posting on here actually seen where the "incursions" to ”Taiwanese" airspace have occurred?

They have been occurirng near the Pratas Islands, literally miles away from the Island of Taiwan. In fact the closest land mass to this island is the Chinese mainland.

This argument is true as Taiwan is a de facto nation, but by law, and in the rules based international order, by law, Taiwan is a part of China and not recognized by the UN or any of the countries of anyone commenting here.

China likes to interpret law in its own favor. China says it owns the South China sea and the world rejects all claims by China. International law says one thing and China interprets it to say whats in it's favor.

Saying by International law Taiwan is part of China is incorrect. UN recognition is not a precondition of sovereignty. The CCP actively blocks any recognition of Taiwan. To do business in China you must say there is one China. Trade coercion does not make it law. There is no world law that states Taiwan belongs to the CCP. That is fact. Anything else is purely CCP propaganda. nothing more.

The PLAAF know exactly where they are flying.

"Oops, did I step on your little toe, again? I am sooooo..... sorry."

Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of China; December 2, 1954 (1)

https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/chin001.asp

War? It could escalate? Taiwan could well be, politically be a tipping point.

Is the American Government prepared to take tactical and/or strategic military action if Taiwan was to fall under the Government of China control?

It could, and the Government of China would have to face the consequences.

Anyone care to to view this within the wider historical context of the US and US proxies Taiwan and (at that time) Thailand's efforts to invade China?

KMT- Kuomintang, the Chinese Nationalist Party (nationalist party of Taiwan) which was funded by the US when Chang K'ai shek held power and fought Mao on the Chinese mainland before Chang fled to Taiwan; when Chang ran to Taiwan, other KMT military went to Burma

[ CIA connection and opium trade[edit]

The KMT army in Burma could not have expanded as it did without the logistical support from the United States, Thailand and Taiwan, as well as the financial support derived from the KMT's involvement in the region's opium trade. The United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was the primary agency in charge of the covert program called "Operation Paper" that transported weapons and supplies to the KMT from Taiwan via Thailand.[9] With President Truman's approval and support from Thailand's Prime Minister Plaek Phibunsongkhram (also known as "Phibun"), the CIA put together a secret air supply network that shipped weapons and supplies to General Li Mi's forces in Mong Hsat from Thailand. The first shipments started in early 1951, when unmarked C-46 and C-47 aircraft were making at least five parachute drops a week. By late 1951, the KMT repaired the old airstrip at Mong Hsat constructed by the Allied forces during World War II. The enlarged airstrip could handle large four-engine aircraft and allowed the KMT troops to obtain newly manufactured American weapons from Taiwan. CIA advisers also accompanied the KMT army in the Yunnan invasion in May 1951, and some of them were killed during the offensive.[8]

Following their failed attempt to re-enter China in August 1952, the KMT appeared to change its policy of using Burma as a base of operations for the invasion of Communist China to permanent entrenchment in the Shan area.[10]

Avoid provoking the red dragon.

That’s what they want the gullible to believe.

Inside they are brittle, call xi’s bluff and China will collapse.

They say barking dogs…….

The bottom line, is when your adversary, your perceived, for want of a better word, potential enemy believes that you are playing a losing hand, you are weak, you wont take the steps necessary to total mutual destruction.

We will be ever, always be the purveyors of our own downfall.

CCP propaganda is nearly but not yet quite water-tight. Once news and communications are totally under control, and the populace thinks and speaks ‘truth’ with one unquestioning mind, then the time may be ripe.

Well Taiwan, it is time to declare the inevitable. Offense is much better at this point.

zichiToday  06:36 pm JST

If China invades Taiwan, America will not go to war over it.

You are wrong.

"More than half of Americans questioned in a new survey said they favor using U.S. troops to defend Taiwan if China was to invade the island."

https://www.voanews.com/a/east-asia-pacific_survey-most-americans-support-defending-taiwan-if-china-invades/6210097.html

"A newly declassified document released in the finals days of the Trump administration emphasized Washington's intent and resolve to defend Taiwan from Beijing in the event of an emergency. "

https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/14128288

If China invades Taiwan, America will not go to war over it.

Not this admin for sure and that is what the Chinese are banking on.

If China invades Taiwan, America will not go to war over it.

Not this admin for sure and that is what the Chinese are banking on.

Would you advocate for war if China did?

Would you advocate for war if China did?

Probably

China will not invade Taiwan, if anything China is barking. China nor the US wants a war, if the two were to go to war the two largest economies world suffer. Its all about the money. What will stop the barking Panda in China is one of his rich military leaders take him out. He is destroying the rich in China and they don't like it so they are fleeing but there are some within will test the Panda and that will settle the scorel

You and AmericanOssan

need to get real.

Always.

When and not if, China invades Taiwan there is no American government, this one or any future one, which will go to war over it.

I disagree.

America could not even manage a war with China so far away from home.

I disagree to a point but given the fact that this admin and what we have seen how it deals with international geopolitical conflicts, there could be some truth to that.

America just lost a 20-year war against a ragtag gang of terrorists.

Thanks to this current admin, that is true.

One day you will have to accept the truth.

Always.

America lost its Afghan war about 2004, Bush was still president then.

I disagree.

America can not fight a war on China's doorstep.

Oh, I really disagree with that, but as long as this admin is in office, I believe you are right.

America could not even manage a war with China so far away from home.

America just lost a 20-year war against a ragtag gang of terrorists.

The US lost the war in Afghanistan in 2003 by not committing enough forces to occupy every corner of the nation to weed out every remnant of the Taliban, secure civil authority and disarm all of the warlords. Relying on warlords to become the governors of the provinces was a major failure. In addition the previous administration negotiated directly with the Taliban without inviting any members of the elected Afghan government, promised the Taliban the US would withdraw and then released some 5000 prisoners. All of that happened before Mr. Biden was inaugurated. At that point there was nothing left but to leave.

What many are missing is that US policy is undergoing a fundamental shift towards competing with China. Getting out of Afghanistan was part of that (now China has a major security problem on its border as they have to worry about Afghanistan and becoming a haven for pro-Uyghur jihadis). Reducing the emphasis on the Middle East is part of that. Recapitalizing the economy and the nation's infrastructure to be more competitive in the 21st Century s part of that. Gathering allies in the QUAD and AUKUS is part of that. The world has not seen what the US can do in the kind of war a war to defend Taiwan would look like. None of the wars in the Middle East are informative on that point. China might not know what it is biting off if it tries to challenge the USAF and USN in a high end fight. The US might have a few unpleasant surprises for them. I keep thinking about the unknown helicopter used in the Bin Laden raid or the acknowledgement of an RQ-180 but never any images or details about it and wonder what else is out there.

@OssanAmerica

If you believe it would be legal under international law for the US to immediately recognise Taiwanese independence and move in with militarily support, what argument do you have against Russia's recognition and military intervention on behalf of the Republic of Crimea in 2014? You can't have it both ways.

China has one million troops a very short distance from Taiwan. How do you think America could fight a war against China? Would they bomb Chinese cities? Invade China mainland?

All you have to do is stop the invasion force. The US has many tens of thousands of naval mines that can be deployed from any aircraft that can carry bombs. It has mines with JDAM style wing kits and guidance so a bomber, fighter or maritime patrol aircraft like a P-3 or P-8 flying along the eastern side of Taiwan can mine the Taiwan Strait. No need to fly the mine laying aircraft over the area to be mined. The wing kits allow mining from stand off ranges. A B-52 or B-1B can lay hundreds of mines in one sortie. Mine clearance takes a lot of time and time will not be on China's side invading Taiwan. US and Taiwanese forces can make crossing those straits very very costly. Kill enough of the invasion force and the invasion fails.

Meanwhile the USAF has a new 6th generation fighter approaching a production decision called NGAD. The supposedly has a big stealthy combat UAS called RQ-180 the USAF acknowledges exists but shows no images of that can hunt down and destroy Chinese air defense or surface to surface missiles aimed at Taiwan. Five B-21s are under construction right now in Palmdale with the first flight planned for the end of this year. New anti-ship missiles have hit the fleet and the USAF, LRASM and JSM. There is a new version of Harpoon too. The US can make it very very costly for China to attack Taiwan and China knows this. As I said, kill enough of the invasion force and the invasion fails. China might have a big army but they can't put it all on ships.

There is a long list of nations gaining independence without war.

In this case, as in many other cases, there will be war.

Maintaining the status quo and to continue to trade is the best option and the choice of the people on the island.

Taiwan cannot expect Americans and Australians to sacrifice their lives for their independence. Simply will not happen.

Above comments have some valid points.

I still believe whatever victory China can gain is only temporary, short term, not worth the risk.

Japan itself fell in this trap before. China might win for the first few months, but it won't last and the odds are severely against China if the World Unites against them like it happened with Japan by the end of 45.

China is lying.

I would trust nothing that the CCP says. It is lead by untrustworthy and morally corrupt individuals.

You say trust nothing the CCP says.

China says it will retake Taiwan.

Conclusion: China will not retake Taiwan

you are in denial about the war in Afghanistan.

No, I’m not.

China has one million troops a very short distance from Taiwan. How do you think America could fight a war against China?

with a clear objective to defend the island nation and how that would entail, I would have no idea because I am not a military strategist, but I have heard many military strategist had said and explained how they could protect the nation, so I trust their military opinion and analysis.

Any attack against China would mean China could attack any American bases in Japan and South Korea.

They can try.

"And so, here we are. The U.S. went to war in Afghanistan with an inadequate understanding of the country, its people and its neighborhood. A misguided commitment to U.S. interests prompted mission creep that made America hang around indefinitely in Afghanistan.

With good reasons, and most importantly to help observe and maintain the Taliban and to ensure that any other radical terrorist group doesn’t congregate into that country to plan or try to launch any offensive attack against the United States

The U.S. can no longer be a great power if its people do not choose to carry the burdens of leadership that great powers must carry.

True and this is why people tired of this administration in the military are so demoralized because we have now a complete and ineffective leader took care less about having a functional military, so when Republicans take the house back next year that is the beginning of things to come and things to change

The U.S., racked with extremism and racial challenges, disagreement over whether its citizens should be vaccinated against an infectious disease, challenges to its democracy and unwillingness to join together to do anything, has also lost every significant war since World War II.

What?

We deeply regret what has come to Afghanistan, but also the world, which may only be able to see U.S. perfidy as the profound failure of a declining power."

Yeah, you think that and I’ll think differently on that one.

Quite and interesting read.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-us-could-win-war-with-china-in-the-pacific-2019-8

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/countering-china-s-adventurism-over-taiwan-third-way

there are many ideas and opinions but realistically, I feel that we might be going to war with China. We pretty much had over 100 years of constant fighting in the Chinese, since the last world war.

Kudos to the writer(s)/editor(s) who correctly tried to educate readers that an ADIZ is not the same as the airspace of a country. Yes, Taiwan's ADIZ extends even into Chinese actual airspace.

The Chinese always play the long game. They waited for a couple of decades, then acted in Hong Kong in complete violation of the handover agreement.

China is building fortified bases artificial islands in the Pacific.

China will invade Taiwan sooner rather than later because the US is now divided and distracted.

The US is a dysfunctional, disorganized mess. It's obvious to the world that Americans don't care about the US or international affairs. Their only concern is their own uninformed, ignorant perception of life.

Americans are consumed with Twitter and InstaGram, consumed with division by race, consumed by ignorance about vaccinations, consumed with division about wearing or not wearing a mask, for heaven's sake. No one cares about any common goals for the US, they're only concerned about themselves.

And a five-time bankrupt, con man who lives on daddy's money with his "intern" children orchestrated this division for political gain. He stated that he loves stupid people. I'm sure he's was surprised as anyone at just how many of them there are.

The US is worried about pronouns, arguing that men can be women and women can be men, arguing that they feel threatened by people who say something they don't like, arguing about who's the richest narcissist on social media, arguing about everything.

China will invade Taiwan. The US will issue a sharply worded rebuke and threaten sanctions. Japan will follow the US.

TSMC in Taiwan makes 92% of the world's most sophisticated chips.

The current state of American ignorance and distraction is the perfect time for China to strike.

If a Chinese invasion of Taiwan happened, America would only know about it after the fact.

The build up of forces would be highly visible. The Chinese could not hide invasion preparations.

Taiwan won't declare independence. The Republic of China was founded by Sun Yat-sen after leading the defeat of the Qing. The government of Taiwan is the direct heir of Dr. Sun's first Chinese republic. Rather I strongly suspect that the government of Taiwan will outlive the CCP. What happens after that is up to the people of Taiwan to decide among themselves. By then they may or may not wish to have any part of the mainland, even with the CCP gone. Too much bad blood, and to many generations of being effectively independent. I do not believe China could successfully take Taiwan by force, and they certainly are not going to take them by persuasion. Their treatment of Hong Kong permanently forecloses that.

Many here just assume China could take them if they wanted. I would argue that if China felt they could take Taiwan they already would have tried. The risk of failure is too great. There are too many ways an invasion can be stopped today. It is not like WWII. Beach assaults against a dug in well defended foe who has cruise missiles and large numbers of rockets like those fired from MLRS is a suicide mission. The ability of air forces to rapidly lay naval minefields in front of an enemy is something previous amphibious operations never had to contend with. Even the US Marines do not plan to storm beaches like that any more, considering the likely losses too great to allow an assault to succeed. I am not saying be complacent and from my perch I do not think the US is being complacent. But the Chinese are not ten feet tall and invincible. They have weaknesses to exploit. I recall talking to a military aviator about attacking ships at sea and his reply was telling "by the time the subs get done there won't be much left to shoot at". China has a lot to consider before it dares attack Taiwan.

The free people of the world need to unite and send belligerent war mongering China a message by boycotting all Chinese goods NOW.

Relying on political leaders is useless, money talks, and if, only if, and when the freedom loving people of this planet stop spending their money on Chinese goods will these power crazed despots get a clue.

The Chinese Communist Party must stop the President Xi Jinping aggressive and bully behavior against Taiwan. The war will hurt both peoples from the China and Taiwan as well as country economy.

China won't win the war because the US has responsibilty for the Taiwan national security. If the President Xi choose to go war with Taiwan and then war will drag the US and Nato into the war.

President Xi think the Military might of his country will defeat the American Military and Taiwan Military.

Communist Chinese technology was just stolen technology and not perfect. It cannot superior to the American technology. If the war with American Military and the American people will boycott the Communist China product. So, China will go back to the poor Moa Zedong era. No Chinese children want to go without food in their stomach.

The Chinese Communist Party must stop the growing power of the President Xi Jinping and his authoritarian style before too late.

DanielsanToday  05:12 am JST

The free people of the world need to unite and send belligerent war mongering China a message by boycotting all Chinese goods NOW.

China controls 70% of the global supply of raw materials.

Ya got any other ideas?

@Peter14

Not true. Most recognize Taiwan is independently run and has never been under CCP rule.

Most have diplomatic relations with China rather than Taiwan, for business purposes only. China like's to hold that up as something to back it's wrongful stance that Taiwan is Chinese territory.

The people of the world not swayed by the business requirements of their own governments, regard Taiwan as independent and sovereign and would much prefer that their nations recognized Taiwan as such.

You keep positing this, and it simply isn't the case. Very few countries recognize Taiwanese independence, and among those no major power does. Great, they have The Holy See on their side, that isn't going to mean a whole lot.

The governments of the world are the ones that would be lending military aid in the event of an [unlikely] invasion, so unless all these people of the world plan to sign up as volunteers it doesn't mean much. Realistically it would never come to that unless Taiwan actively tries to secede, a move that all but the most nationalistic would see as foolish. Keeping the current status is probably the best position for both parties, short of a Taiwan-led reintegration movement [also unlikely, but less so], a gesture that I have no doubt China would be happy to accept.

zichiOct. 6  10:19 pm JST

You and AmericanOssan

need to get real. When and not if, China invades Taiwan there is no American government, this one or any future one, which will go to war over it.

This is your "opinion" which has no substantiation. You are simply parroting CCP propaganda. Wonder why whem you claim to be a Brit.

America could not even manage a war with China so far away from home.

America just lost a 20-year war against a ragtag gang of terrorists.

No other country on this planet is capable of carrying out a war away from home on the level of the United States.

The Chinese PLA are not a "ragtag gang of terrorists" mixed into the civilian population. THe PLA are a uniformed military, exactly what the U.S. excels in destroying.

You keep positing this, and it simply isn't the case. Very few countries recognize Taiwanese independence, and among those no major power does. Great, they have The Holy See on their side, that isn't going to mean a whole lot.

The vast majority of people in those countries that recognize China for business purposes, all accept Taiwan is independent regardless of their governments stance. You dont get it. People vote in new Governments regularly and can replace those who do not follow the wishes of the majority of their populations. If China invades Taiwan it is the populations that will demand actions like trade embargoes against China and recognizing Taiwan as independent. Many will demand action to assist Taiwan. China likes to ignore the demands of its masses but democratic nations do not.

a big stealthy combat UAS called RQ-180 the USAF acknowledges exists but shows no images of that can hunt down and destroy Chinese air defense or surface to surface missiles aimed at Taiwan

The Northrop Grumman RQ-180 is an American stealth unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveillance aircraft.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_RQ-180

China controls 70% of the global supply of raw materials

No it does not.

Taiwan and China are one. Stop listening to others. please think deeply Taiwan.

Taiwan and China are separate and most definitely not one. They are two. China needs to correct its wrong actions and accept the truth.

America did not win in Korea. America lost in Vietnam. America lost in Afghanistan. Your time is over.

China did not win in Korea.

America did lose in Vietnam.

America chose to abandon Afghanistan after twenty years of successful neutralizing of enemies in that country, but not ending opposition from the Taliban. It could have easily stayed on longer if it chose to. America was not militarily defeated.

The monies being expended in Afghanistan are now going to new equipment, new research and maintenance on serving equipment to restore higher readiness capacity of all forces. In short the US military is regenerating, modernizing and restoring its ability to fight anywhere in the world it is needed. Do not ever assume the US is impotent. Doing so will ensure their victory.