Taiwan sees China learning lessons from Russia's Ukraine invasion

It has to be swift because 90% of Japan’s oil, gas and import/exports go through there. If Kishida cared about his nation, he would tell USA to stop poking sticks at beehives.

@Righteous and he (Putin)does not care if the country is otherwise destroyed.

The above is clear, Putin and the warmongering Kremlin are continuing to try to destroy Ukraine, and they and their supporters in China/Iran/North Korea and in other nations (including some in the 'west') cheer the deaths and destruction on. Though at the same time they cheer and crow about their military prowess and how effective they are at killing and attacking civilian infrastructure, they blame others for the damage the Russian forces have been doing. Putin cares only about his legacy, wants to be seen as having more territory than Ivan, Peter (the so-called 'great')and Stalin, even if the territory he might control has been leveled to a wasteland. Maybe Putin and the Kremlin hope there is oil and gas under the waste, and they can continue to use them as weapons. And others in the world's ruling caste will continue to support him and burn oil and gas in ever larger amounts.

China likes Taiwan, they just don't like the ruling Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) and those die-hard anti communist factions within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Because the whole China is run by C.C.P., Taiwan, Hong Kong Macau were no exception.

One lesson China certainly learned from the Ukraine conflict is that the West cannot be trusted in any negotiation (see Minsk 2 Agreement).

The PRC imports over 72% of its oil, mostly through the Straits of Malacca. That would certainly be blocked, whether or not a swift PRC victory of the ROC occurs. The former would never take that chance.

What do politicians get paid to do?? Guess its to do their jobs?? Making a statement such as this?? A major/huge event in the world? A non politician like me, already knows that everyone/every country in the world learn something from it. So, making such an obvious, telling the world non thing is not doing the job, paid.

Western politicians only care about keeping their jobs at the next election. More established nations leaders (CHina, Russia etc) think more about the long term effects of their policies..

Western politicians only care about keeping their jobs at the next election.

Yes, that plus getting a cut of whatever deal they make...

China has thousands of years of war experience, and didn't need Ukraine to learn the essence of speed. Whether China has the right to Taiwan is disputable. Taiwanese want to maintain the status quo, nether fully backing either proper independence nor integration with the mainland. We could argue about this forever. Though, China never ruled Taiwan, and as I see it, no country should be allowed to expand their territories, neither by force, nor by other means.

I don't think people appreciate just how much the Ukraine war has undermined the Taiwan independence position. The entire west has spent the past year emphasising their commitment to the principle of territorial integrity and condemning Russia's unilateral recognition of the self-declared Donbass republics. Recognising Taiwan independence and immediately intervening militarily would be straight out of the Putin playbook. How many western allies would be onboard with this level of hypocrisy?

First, unlike the Kiev regime's efforts to crush Ukrainian resistance to it, Taipei isn't going to be engaging in slaughtering its population and threatening to create a humanitarian crisis that China would be expected to handle.

Second, China doesn't need to militarily force the government of Taipei to respect international law, or even use military force to keep the self proclaimed 'civilized world' from sponsoring terrorists in Taipei to attack China's critical economic infrastructure, all it has to do is declare it is going to start enforcing cabotage rules against ships carrying cargo to both the Chinese island province and the mainland and Taipei's economy will quickly plummet below the level of Peurto Rico's.

Oh, and the window of time that there is major oil shipments to China happening is closing. Consider that China's renewable and nuclear energy programs are rapidly growing and have hit the point where they are beginning to meet the needs of entire sectors from existing carbon free energy.

It has to be swift because 90% of Japan’s oil, gas and import/exports go through there. If Kishida cared about his nation, he would tell USA to stop poking sticks at beehives.

It is not about the US. Kishida must continue to tell China they do not own Taiwan, rule Taiwan or have rights to invade Taiwan. It is an international matter regardless of what China says, and Japan plus many many other nations will always oppose anyone trying to invade Taiwan for any purpose. The future of Taiwan and its people is up to the citizens of Taiwan and no other nation including China, can alter that fact.

Because the whole China is run by C.C.P., Taiwan, Hong Kong Macau were no exception.

The FACT is that the CCP does not rule Taiwan and never has in it's entire, short history.

When you got warmonger John Bolton praising what you did…

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3872098-bolton-praises-biden-decision-to-send-troops-to-taiwan-but-we-can-do-a-lot-more/

Communism is very short term and democracy will be lifelong...

Taiwan better not count on Biden to actually follow through on promises if he starts a war with China too.

“M1 Abrams tanks Biden promised Ukraine may not be sent this year or next, defense official says”

China doesn't want war. Others may.

Communism is very short term and democracy will be lifelong...

One in the same.

A country with the moniker, republic, only will be viable.

I think China and Taiwan should be re-united but under Taiwan's conditions, not China's.

More US military advisors will be arriving in Taiwan shortly. China will have a shtfit. Guaranteed.

'Russia-Ukraine war has brought great lessons for the them - they will definitely seek speed," Chiu told reporters on the sidelines of parliament in Taipei, referring to China's military'

I think that Taipei's observations is accurate, too risky, too risky, too risky!

China will be learning that they can expect fierce resistance from the Taiwanese people but absolutely none from American Republican voters.

It helps if you realize that China is type of democracy and not communist anymore !

China isn't any type of meaningful democracy at all. The CCP controls nominations and elections at every level.

Being not communist anymore does not mean being democratic.

Communism is very short term and democracy will be lifelong...

One in the same.

A country with the moniker, republic, only will be viable

Eh?

It helps if you realize that China is type of democracy and not communist anymore !

Whether it’s ‘communist’ depends on definitions. Autocracy might be a better word.

More importantly, what’s democratic about China?

The US has hammered its economic competitor Europe with sanctions over Ukraine. It would hammer its economic competitors Japan and South Korea with sanctions over Taiwan. China will now be able to plan for the consequences.

Like Washington and Moscow, Beijing might appreciate a new Cold War. Each would have their own part of the planet to dominate.

However, this may be irrelevant. The next Taiwanese government may be pro-Chinese. The fallout from deglobalisation, rising nationalism, recession and Covid is wiping out sitting regimes worldwide (if not in Japan).

China and Taiwan are getting along fine. 11.6 million Taiwanese (50% of the population) already voluntarily hold and have held a PRC ID Card since 1992, allowing them to live, work, travel, study, do business in the mainland as Chinese citizens as opposed to foreign nationals.

Taiwan held a sizable surplus against China, with exports from the island exceeding imports by $172 billion, according to Chinese customs data - Bloomberg. Taiwanese businesses choose mainland China as the first choice for 80% of their investments. Businesses in Taiwan want to increase trade with China. Just those pineapple cakes or cookies alone are over a billion USD.

This is an annual $170 billion USD trade surplus, NOT total trade, enjoyed by Taiwan trading with mainland China. We are talking net profit. The status quo wins hands down here. No one is interesting in killing a hen that lays $170 billion worth of eggs.

For perspecstive, the total trade between China and Russia is expected to grow to $160 billion USD in 2023. The US interest payments on debt for the past 2.5 months have reached $160 billion USD.

The next Presidential election in Taiwan is January 2024. The prediction is that there will be a geopolitical shift closer to Beijing. The next President will no doubt strike a balance between US and China. It definitely will not be an election that shifts Taiwan towards the US. This is where Taiwan is different from Japan according to my sources.

@que

Some good info there, appreciated. Trade between Taiwan and China seems to be very profitable, especially for Taiwan. That's an impressive economy and Xi must be envious.

You mentioned that Taiwan has Presidential elections next year. Hopefully they will get to have them in 2028 too, instead of having a leader from Beijing who they (or anybody else) didn't elect to use that $170 billion yearly profit. They can see from Hong Kong what awaits them. and it isn't pleasant. The CCP needs to work on its hearts and minds side of things.

Taiwanese people don't want to be reunited with China right now. One day, maybe, but not now.

Awa no Gaijin

Communism is very short term and democracy will be lifelong...

It helps if you realize that China is type of democracy and not communist anymore !

What? Well it may not be communist, but it definitely ain't a democracy!

I find the fact that China is considering sending arms to Russia's fight against Ukraine probably means it doesn't feel it can invade Taiwan. Looking at Ukraine, it must realize that they will run out of arms very soon.

China has thousands of years of war experience, and

China hasn't "won" any war since Korea. They've lost 3:

Sino-Vietnamese War (1979)

Sino-Soviet Border Conflict (1969)

Sino-Indian War (1962)

And don't forget that the CCP didn't win WW2, that was the ROC who was part of that "win", regardless of the revisionist history taught in by the CCP in China.

China doesn't want war.

That's what Putin said too.................. right before invading Ukraine

Probably another thing China is learning from Russia

China is definitely not a democracy. Their leaders do not face the trial by election from its population. Words have meanings - they do not get to define what democracy is

China is not a democracy with Chinese characteristics

China is a totalitarian with Chinese characteristics - those Chinese characteristics may pretend like a democracy, but at the end of the day, it's still totalitarian by the very definition

I don't think people appreciate just how much the Ukraine war has undermined the Taiwan independence position. The entire west has spent the past year emphasising their commitment to the principle of territorial integrity and condemning Russia's unilateral recognition of the self-declared Donbass republics. Recognising Taiwan independence and immediately intervening militarily would be straight out of the Putin playbook. How many western allies would be onboard with this level of hypocrisy?

It won't be the US starting the war over Taiwan, though. It will be the criminal party going for a grab of land it never held. So there will be clear hypocrisy on China's part alone.

Second, China doesn't need to militarily force the government of Taipei to respect international law, or even use military force to keep the self proclaimed 'civilized world' from sponsoring terrorists in Taipei to attack China's critical economic infrastructure, all it has to do is declare it is going to start enforcing cabotage rules against ships carrying cargo to both the Chinese island province and the mainland and Taipei's economy will quickly plummet below the level of Peurto Rico's.

That would be called a blockade, and all it would take is China firing on a US Navy ship that won't comply and we'd be off to the races.

TaiwanIsNot

That would be called a blockade, and all it would take is China firing on a US Navy ship that won't comply and we'd be off to the races.

And don't forget, a blockade is considered an act of war.