UK ever more polarized as Brexit Party storms to EU vote win

Results so far:

Brexit:

Brexit Party 31.6%, Conservatives 9.1%, UKIP 3.3%

TOTAL 44%

Remain:

Lib Dems 20.3%, Greens 12.1%, SNP 3.5%, Plaid 1.0% , Change UK 3.4%

TOTAL 40.3%

God knows:

Labour 14.1%

Removing Labour from the equation means

52.18% Brexit

47.81% Remain

I feel so sorry for our good friends in the UK - I thought they would be spared the madness and embarrassment we have to face each day with Trump as President.

But this Farage guy is as big a kook as Trump, and that's saying a lot...

Another interpretation of the results:

Brexit:

Brexit Party 31.6%, UKIP 3.3%

TOTAL 34.9%

Remain:

Lib Dems 20.3%, Greens 12.1%, SNP 3.5%, Plaid 1.0% , Change UK 3.4%

TOTAL 40.3%

God knows:

Labour 14.1%

Conservative 9.1%

Based on voting patterns in the 2015 referendum 61% of Conservative voters wanted to leave and 65% of Labour voters wanted to remain (YouGov poll published on June 27, 2016).

Adding these proportions to Leave / Remain gives us:

Leave: 45.4% (= 34.9 + (9.10.61) + (14.10.35))

Remain: 53.0% (= 40.3 + (9.10.39) + (14.10.65))

Remain wins by a substantial majority.

I think this result fully justifies calls for a second referendum.

Current stats show the combined tally for the two parties in favour of no deal, the Brexit Party and UKIP, is 35%. Combined tally for the pro Second Referendum parties is 40%. Brexit Party has taken votes from Tories, Labour, UKIP etc, there is no pro Brexit surge, these votes have just been consolidated in one party. The majority of votes were for pro Remain parties.

We are still in the same, unresolvable mess.

@scrote

Don't know why you think the Tories didn't state before the EU elections that they would carry out Brexit. You're trying to bend the results to your own liking.

@Luddite

You are trying to make a false comparison.

Yes, before the election, Libs, Change UK, Plaid, SNP and Greens stated that they want a second referendum. However, Brexit party, UKIP AND the Tories stated that they were opposed to a second ref.

Against second ref 44% (plus DUP when figure is known)

Pro second ref 40.3%

So no pressure then, if these votes do not count. Just a chance to blow off steam. Farage's mouth is the funnel.

a wave of anger at the failure of Prime Minister Theresa May to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union.

What a disaster she has been.

I waiting patiently for the final official count/tally devoid of estimates and or projection.

EU wide, Nationalists, Greens, Liberal centre parties have made significant gains. The EEP, S&D, ECR have lost a combined 94 seats.

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party has achieved 31.6/7% , the spread, and turnout could indicate future voting intentions in a General Election. I believe the next Leader of the conservative party/Prime Minster will struggle to move UK-EU withdrawal bill through a second reading. Corbyn could call a vote of confidence in the government when the new leader is announced. The support of the DUP could be prove critical.

Some follow-up info:

A representative from the Electoral Commission on Sky News earlier said that some EU citizens had been turned away at polling stations due to processing errors. (That is completely unfair - they should be allowed their vote. I guess the Electoral Commission should have spent more time preparing for the election rather than wasting time 'investigating' Brexit Party donations)

However, according to him, the amount turned away were only a 'handful'.

He also stated that around 2 million EU nationals who are eligible voters live in the UK, and that around 10% usually take part. (This will likely have added around 1 - 1.5% towards parties who support remaining)

Also, voter turnout for this election was higher in areas that voted remain in the 2016 referendum and was lower in areas which voted to leave.

https://electionsetc.com/2019/05/25/two-notes-on-the-psephology-of-the-euro-elections/

Seems that there are already millions of voters who feel disenfranchised because of how the vote in 2016 has been ignored. This makes sense seeing as the Tory vote hadn't been completely absorbed by the Brexit Party or any others.

Finally, John Curtis mentioned that the SNP had had a high amount of votes from Scots who want to leave the EU, but also want Scottish independence.

If the results below, taking account quantified region on region spread, indicative voter intentions would present fundamental political change in a General Election. Turn out is key statistic though.

European election latest results 2019: across the UK.........

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2019/may/26/european-election-latest-results-2019-uk-england-scotland-wales-ni-eu-parliament

Don't know why you think the Tories didn't state before the EU elections that they would carry out Brexit. You're trying to bend the results to your own liking.

There's a case of pots and kettles if ever there was one.

The only way you can make the "Leave" figure higher than the "Remain" figure is if you count all Conservative votes as "Leave". As I pointed out (and you ignored), not all Conservative voters support "Leave" and many of those who do will have voted for the Brexit party. Plus, the figures above do not include Northern Ireland which voted to remain in the referendum.

I know you don't want to see a second referendum, but the results are perfectly clear: "Remain" now has a majority. It's time for a second vote.

@scrote

The only way you can make the "Leave" figure higher than the "Remain" figure is if you count all Conservative votes as "Leave".

Scrote, I believe you are getting confused by mixing how people voted in 2016 with today's election. You can't even begin to take a 65/35% split of Labour because most of the those who want to remain, abandoned them today.

If you wanted to stop Brexit or want a second referendum, you wouldn't vote for the Conservatives or Labour today. You'd vote for Libs Dems, Greens or Change UK.

Funnily enough, the Brexit Party is a single-issue party. So, we can be absolutely confident that all of the people who voted for them want a WTO Brexit. The same cannot be said for Libs Dems or Greens. Some people will have voted for them because of tribal loyalty or because they care about the environment.

The only way you can make the "Leave" figure higher than the "Remain" figure is if you count all Conservative votes as "Leave". 

As well as saying that Labour voters, the majority of whom back remain, don't count and aren't real.

@Sneezy

As well as saying that Labour voters, the majority of whom back remain, don't count and aren't real.

They are real, and they supported the Lib Dems today.

Farage Brexit party would need a full organisational political campaigning apparatus that requires deep pockets. If Farage intends to run a in General Election.

Theresa May slap dash incompetence running down the Brexit clock leaves little or no time to prepare. With the Withdrawal Bill stalled, a conservative government politically imploding. candidates jostling for the party leadership, ever more shrill and delusional boasts of delivering Brexit, the likelihood of a snap General Election is increasing.

Farage would need comprehensive manifesto detailing agricultural, social economic, taxation and momentary policy, education and employment programs.

Not impossible, but hugely challenging to seriously move from the single issue Brexit party to compete and managing a high-profile General Election campaign and then to be able to deliver the electorates expectations and run the UK economy.

However with UK politics in total disarray, Corbyns opposition politically comatose, as Jeff Tracy warns "Stand by for action. 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. Thunderbirds are go!"

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party will now be the biggest party in the European Parliament with 29 seats.

Tangerine 2000, what are you talking about?? The Brexit Party’s EFD grouping has just 56 seats. The nationalists and populists made some gains but they are far from being the majority in the European Parliament.

@SwissToni

I am not referring to the groupings (EFD etc) within the EU parliament. I am referring to the fact that the Brexit Party is the largest party in Europe with 29 seats. Germany's CDU has 28 seats and Italy's Lega has 28.

Tangerine 2000, I see what you’re getting at. The CDU/CSU also got 29 seats but individual party performance at EU level is not the most important factor. In the EU Parliament the political grouping parties are members of carries the voting power. Brexit Parties EFD grouping has just 54 seats out of 751.

What a disaster she has been.

The moment did a deal with the DUP to prop up her govt, that sealed her fate. This tiny party of fundamentalists held the UK to ransom, so I have no sympathy for May.

But I don't see any of her power hungry successors doing any better.

As long as the occupied 6 counties aren't ignored again. That's the main thing.

As long as the occupied 6 counties 

Come on, Toasted! Occupied by whom? The people who live there?

They are real, and they supported the Lib Dems today.

??? I'm talking about the 14% who voted Labour, the majority of whom favour remain. You have decided to just ignore these people in your "calculations" because that would result in a majority of British voters for remain. Typical of Brexiteers - just omit inconvenient facts.