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Johnson urges caution as UK virus cases fall for seven days

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100,000?

0 ( +0 / -0 )

A conundrum that will soon clear when more data and evidence come; considering the miserable record of Johnson's past performance, "Ping" may be followed by "pong".

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

I have noticed that obviously we have six days of some better figures but it's very, very important that we don't allow ourselves to run away with premature conclusions about this

Johnson has obviously been advised to act like a grown up. The stupidity of last year when he ended up in hospital with Covid won’t wash now.

He’s seeing his lead in the polls drop.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Epidemiology is data driven modeling. dependent on a, frankly an interpretation, to a number of related causes, risks and factors.

That is before the political element gets it teeth into outcomes.

Johnson is a degenerate political gambler, with a 70% plus vaccine roil out appears to have provided a number of political wins.

However appearances can be deceptive. And Johnson is no a stranger to the art of deception.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

a decline that has surprised officials and experts

Neil Ferguson is not an 'expert'

-6 ( +0 / -6 )

It has confounded the government and scientists, who had previously warned cases would likely surge to 100,000 a day in the weeks ahead after the restrictions were eased.

The panic is over then?

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

It has confounded the government and scientists, who had previously warned cases would likely surge to 100,000 a day in the weeks ahead after the restrictions were eased.

Well, confounding dimwits isn’t so difficult. It never fails.

-4 ( +0 / -4 )

Oh dear, media picking a worst case scenario to report again.

There was in the modelling this was drawn from a range of possible outcomes, this was the outcome in the worst case scenario. So I very much doubt anyone is “confounded”.

The worst case scenario was based on inter alia a return to face to face contacts at the same level as pre pandemic which is average 10 contacts per day. The evidence is showing there has not been an increase to that level, people are on the whole being sensible and the figures show a contact level of 4 per day.

Bear also in mind that the figures of cases are not yet showing the impact of opening up, so there remains a possibility they might rise, or they might not to any significant extent.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

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