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UK warns of 'gaps' with EU as talks to solve N Ireland Brexit issues resume

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Both the UK Government and the European Commission are sleepwalking into trade war.

A fiscal and economic catastrophe. EU exports to UK in 2021 is worth €277 billion.

A tit for at trade war would would also have an absolutely devastating effect to the diplomatic/political relationship with disastrous long term consequences.  

United Kingdom-EU - international trade in goods statistics

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=UnitedKingdom-EU-_international_trade_in_goods_statistics

Let not pretend, there is no winners here. Finger pointing is over.

1 ( +5 / -4 )

Let not pretend, there is no winners here. Finger pointing is over.

Now winners just size of loser. And the UK is the biggest loser.

5 ( +13 / -8 )

Gosh it’s almost as if the Brexiteers didn’t think things through fully.....

11 ( +17 / -6 )

Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland are better served decoupling from England.

3 ( +11 / -8 )

Ah_so,

In 2020, the United Kingdom was the second largest partner for EU exports of goods (14.4 %) and the third largest partner for EU imports of goods (9.8 %).

What is the point, blowing raspberries, or resorting to playground politics will get everybody nowhere quickly.

I agree, Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland should be independent, at least politically.

However economically all are totally dependent on the Union. It is delusional to suggest otherwise.

It is this economic interdependency that guarantees health care, pensions, social welfare infrastructure.

As a member state UK was a major contributor to EU cohesion funds.

What is left is a tenuous trading relationships. If that was to move to non EU countries, The outcome is obvious.

Then factor in the political/diplomatic consequences. The losers will ultimately be the citizens and people, jobs and businesses.

4 ( +7 / -3 )

Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland are better served decoupling from England.

That would suit the English, who bankroll Scotland and Northern Ireland. Be careful what you wish for...

"There's been plenty of speculation about governance this week but our position remains unchanged: the role of the European Court of Justice in resolving disputes between the UK and EU must end,"

Well ya. If your not in the E.U, why would you be subject to the European Court of Justice. Fair call.

4 ( +8 / -4 )

The biggest "gaps" are between the ears of the Brexiteers.

3 ( +12 / -9 )

Boris John Government signed the tweaked EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement, to, in his words to get Brexit done. A deal that in all respects was negotiated by Theresa May administration.

The EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement is foremost a legally binding Treaty. Subject to International Law.

Now.....

As a result, Britain is threatening to trigger the protocol's Article 16, which provides both parties with unilateral power to take action if they believe the agreement is causing "serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist".

These threats could be a political manoeuvring negotiating tactic, to force a outcome favorable to bring a conclusion.

However, Johnson could be preparing to politically justify jettisoning the entire NI protocol.

The French are likely to block any change. This could be the trap Johnson is setting to legitimize, in his view, triggering Article 16.

Macron is underestimating Johnson.

Boris Johnson is slippery.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

Boris Johnson is slippery.

...like a poisonous jelly fish. The Europeans already sussed him out long ago and will know how to put Boris back in his cool-box. It's the English who haven't yet woken up to the utterly incompetent content of Johnson's shambolic character and presumably won't be able to figure it out till they've gone right over the cliff on their unicorns.

7 ( +10 / -3 )

Brexit is a slow-motion train wreck. Johnson will just blame the EU the way everyone blames Facebook for almost everything else. They could have chosen a third party arbitrator for NI - the US played that role in the GFA. The entire farce is a textbook example of how not to run a country and what popular nationalism does to your economy. And it will be in a lot of textbooks. Johnson can get away with plenty, but history will not be so kind to him. This is all only going to get worse going forward. Labour shortages. Product shortages. Debt. A shattered economy. Higher mortgage rates and taxes. Strikes. Indyref 2. Everything will now more visibly unravel. There are inevitable consequences to Brexit in a networked world. They are all bad, and they are all beginning to play out.

5 ( +8 / -3 )

Boris Johnson government certainly comes over hesitant, impulsive, reactionary.

Johnson's cabinet, runs towards political hurdles, crisis, without any real consideration whether they can transverse them.

The policy is muted and fractured, so the decision making process reflects a stilted and cumbersome mish mash of lucky-dip, hope and pray outcomes.

This is clear, and so continues to be evident in UK Covid policy template, akin to poke and hope strategy.

This behaviour makes Boris Johnson agenda difficult to read and measure.

Johnson plots, schemes, conspires.

It would be wise for the European Commission to be aware that Johnson could have already decided to trigger Article 16, and it is just a question of timing.

Where Indyref 2 is concerned, economically this pandemic could have set that on ice, at least for the foreseeable future.

Even so Boris Johnson could be plotting a surprise, a tactic to blindside the SNP.

1 ( +2 / -1 )

"....That would suit the English, who bankroll Scotland and Northern Ireland. Be careful what you wish for...."

What absolute nonsense!! England categorically does not bankroll Scotland. Even the Tories have admitted that Scots contribute more per capita than English. You obviously have no idea what you are talking about and just swallow the official establishment line.

Other than the financial sector in London (which is being lost to the continent) what major industry or revenue does England bring in??

The UK state has been propped up on oil revenue since the 70's and where does that oil reside? Oh yeah...in Scottish waters. When Scotland goes, rump-UK will wither on the vine. The Tories have taken far too much and convinced you all that it's a good thing.

-3 ( +5 / -8 )

If your not in the E.U, why would you be subject to the European Court of Justice

It's the relationship with the EU that is subject to the ECJ. Outside this, you're free to jump to all sorts of false conclusions about the world around you.

Boris Johnson government certainly comes over hesitant

If only they did hesitate once in a while...

2 ( +3 / -1 )

The neo-imperialists in Brussels are hell-bent on punishing Britain for leaving the empire. They want inflict as much damage as possible in order to discourage others where Euro-sceptic movements are thinking about leaving (i.e. Italy).

0 ( +5 / -5 )

@Zaphod. The neo- imperialists in Brussels? Or is it more to do with the colonial mindset of the British government? They do not seem to get over the fact that Britain is no longer a major player in the world. Rule Britannia!

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Another Brexit freedom.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

House of Commons Library

.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06625/

To contend that the Scottish government management of economic competency is front center is ludicrous.

Then to suggest that to dismiss the UK contribution is just swallowing the official establishment line. Is frankly remarkable. In a permanent state of denial.

There is little doubt that the SNP has won the political argument for independence is undeniable.

The economic argument is another matter, The people of Scotland have to be presented with the full interdependently audited bottom line public accounts. The economic state of the nation. Before any thought of a referendum.

The People of Scotland must be fully informed of currency policy. Lender of last resort.

And a full explanation as to why the SNP want to replace one union with a Treaty based ridged structure

That is not Independence by any stretch of the imagine.

The what-abouts come thick and fast where Nicola Sturgeon is concerned, a ruthless and cynical blame

game. A total lack to take responsibility.

If in doubt, shift the blame on Brexit.

Fiscal deficit

In 2020/21, Scotland’s net fiscal deficit – the difference between estimated revenues and public spending – is estimated at 22.4% of GDP if North Sea revenues are shared according to where the oil and gas fields are located (on a geographical basis) and 23.8% of GDP if North Sea oil and gas are excluded. This compares with a UK fiscal deficit of 14.2% of GDP.

To suggest that these numbers can be deflected simply because Scots contribute more per capita than English is simply astonishing. It is magic money tree economics.

The total public spending is £18,140 per head.

Revenues raised in Scotland in 2020/21, is equivalent to approximately £11,400-£11,500 per head. How is that gap broached??

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Lets be clear, open and honest, if either the UK or EU governments were to trigger Article 16, a chain of events will be set into motion, the outcome will led to a political/diplomatic quagmire, for generations to come.

To justify such a scenario, with the frankly booing, that either the UK or EU member states will somehow succeed because they lose less is Looney tunes crazy.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The EU's position is completely untenable. No doubt the current talks will lead to a compromise, with far fewer EU controls, but even that won't last because from Britain's point of view there is no reason whatsoever why Northern Ireland should not be treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK.

Boris Johnson is a very reluctant Brexiteer, which is why he is so generous towards the EU (on issues such as Northern Ireland, fishing, trade, etc). They should understand that the next Tory leader may well be much more hardline, and they are being very stupid to annoy the UK with their absurd demands as this will create a more severe backlash.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

"The EU's position is completely untenable. No doubt the current talks will lead to a compromise, with far fewer EU controls, but even that won't last because from Britain's point of view there is no reason whatsoever why Northern Ireland should not be treated exactly the same as the rest of the UK."

No controls will mean:

Free access of goods/services from the mainland to NI

Free access from NI to Ireland (EU Member State)

From Ireland to the EU at large.

To sum up: having your cake and eating it too.

They have signed an Agreement (Protocol), yet you claim "The EU's position is completely untenable"

You must be thinking they're all idiots over there in Europe.

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

Mainland (UK( to NI

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

@Peeping Tom: given that there is a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU there is free movement of goods between the two zones anyway, so there would be no benefit for UK firms to export to the EU by going through Northern and Southern Ireland. Your statement is therefore complete nonsense - just like the EU's position!

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Peeping_Tom

There has to be a change, at present, NI is part of the UK.

Part of the Union.

Also NI is a political cauldron with the lid about to fly into orbit.

There has to be compromise.

Both the UK and EU commission have to work to accept the situation is untenable.

The rhino in the china shop is the Government of France.

Marcon is on the ropes,

2022 French presidential election

View the trading price option

https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022

Then politico polling......

https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

It is closer, a larger nut to crack, than 2017 with a periphery of candidates that could split the vote.

Macron is, with respect, a political rooky, novice.

Macron views taking on Boris Johnson, as a sensible political strategy.

It frankly isn't, Johnson will string him out, set Macron up as the hapless fall guy.

Macron will never accept change to NI protocol, his ego will never allow it.

Johnson is depending on this.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"@Peeping Tom: given that there is a free trade agreement between the UK and the EU there is free movement of goods between the two zones anyway, so there would be no benefit for UK firms to export to the EU by going through Northern and Southern Ireland. Your statement is therefore complete nonsense - just like the EU's position!"

The biggest nonsense is your entire post; AALL of it!

There's no Free Trade Agreement between The UK and the EU.

You're shouting:

I DON'T HAVE A SCOOBY ABOUT BREXIT!

And (in all probability) voted on it too!

No wonder.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

"There has to be a change, at present, NI is part of the UK.

Part of the Union."

And Ireland is part of the EU; please bear this into your equation.

What Boris wants to solve is Brexit's import/exports into the UE, by undermining the Protocol, which both he and Frost signed only a few months ago.

Pacta Sunt Servanda.

I believe you heard of this maxim.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

The NI protocol has become the OK Coral, of EU-UK stand off?

The difficulty here is spotting/identifying the good guy from the bad guys

Who are the Wyatt, Morgan, and Virgil Earp, and Doc Holliday.?

From the Ike and Billy Clanton and Tom and Frank McLaury, with Billy Claiborne?

1 ( +1 / -0 )

"The difficulty here is spotting/identifying the good guy from the bad guys

Who are the Wyatt, Morgan, and Virgil Earp, and Doc Holliday.?"

Very easy.

Who is now trying to undo an International Agreement, claiming "I didn't really understand what I was signing up to "!!!

"Boris didn't have a Scooby about the Protocol - Frost"

"We signed up (Protocol) intent on breaking it - Frost"

Don't take my word for it.

Check it.

-3 ( +0 / -3 )

Peeping Tom, yes  “agreements must be kept”, arguably the oldest principle of international law.

In all honesty I had to look that up. So you are ahead of me.

Yes there is no debate here. Sign a Treaty and live with the consequences.

I suspect Johnson is about to renege.

Article 16 is frankly a blunt instrument, a sawn off shotgun approach to destroying diplomacy.

And UK government signed the withdrawal agreement.

Something historians will be debating, mulling over for decades to come

0 ( +1 / -1 )

"In all honesty I had to look that up. So you are ahead of me."

I am a Law Graduate;

Work for a Law Firm (when I am not being silly here on JT)

-2 ( +1 / -3 )

@ Peeping Tom: "There's no Free Trade Agreement between The UK and the EU". Oh yes there is - it's called the Trade and Cooperation Agreement.

You are the one who hasn't got a clue, but that doesn't stop you from spouting drivel and showing your ignorance to everyone. Oh well, it's always good to be able to come here and laugh at you and your inane ravings. Thanks for that!

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

@itsonlyrocknroll: "I suspect Johnson is about to renege. Article 16 is frankly a blunt instrument, a sawn off shotgun approach to destroying diplomacy."

Article 16 is part of the Treaty. Using article 16 is therefore not 'reneging' on the Treaty, but merely using the Treaty, exactly as it was written and agreed by both parties.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

"While it will by no means match the level of economic integration that existed while the UK was an EU Member State, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement goes beyond traditional free trade agreements and provides a solid basis for preserving our longstanding friendship and cooperation."

N.B

Check Source(s).

This is what your "trade Agreement" stipulates.

Nothing in it allows for "free flow of goods/service between UK?EU!

Especially, breaching it "without reasonable" cause.

That's what I was trying to mean in my post (it's clear some are incapable of reading between the lines)

Obviously, in a rush to prove me "wrong" you've decided on this "worthless" piece of rubbish.

-1 ( +1 / -2 )

Bill Adams,

Yes a interesting point, and correct.

So, while it is not intended to be used for temporary or minor problems there is no specific guidance on what qualifies as a "serious" difficulty.

If it concludes that the UK's actions create an "imbalance" between its rights and obligations under the protocol, then the EU can take "proportionate rebalancing measures".

These are not defined and would largely be determined by what the UK does.

---------------------------------------------------------

Brexit: What is Article 16 and what exactly does it say?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-58790419

The NI protocol is ambiguous and open to interpretation.

Northern Ireland protocol: Article 16

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/northern-ireland-protocol-article-16

By design, Annex 7 of the Protocol, and these undefined rebalancing measures regardless of on-going negotiations could facilitate a trade war.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

"Reasonable" grounds, to be more accurate.

This single issue report (Breach) is something ANY LPC student would love to have as an assignment.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

@itsonlyrocknroll: The Protocol states: "If the application of this Protocol leads to serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties that are liable to persist, or to diversion of trade, the Union or the United Kingdom may unilaterally take appropriate safeguard measures."

The reference to "diversion of trade" is not subject to any condition (eg. 'serious'): it is a stand-alone stipulation. The fact is that the figures show there has been a diversion of trade, and this is not challenged by the EU.

Therefore the condition for activating Article 16 has been met. This cannot be challenged or questioned. Those who seek to do so reveal their prejudiced, blinkered, Britain-hating agenda, and can safely be ignored as EU trolls and lapdogs.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

The neo-imperialists in Brussels are hell-bent on punishing Britain for leaving the empire. They want inflict as much damage as possible in order to discourage others where Euro-sceptic movements are thinking about leaving (i.e. Italy).

England has a card it can use should the EU play hardball. Without their military the EU’s defense capabilities would be diminished significantly. Given Germany’s footsie with Putin, Johnson would be justified in withdrawing military support from the continent.

-2 ( +0 / -2 )

England has a card it can use should the EU play hardball. Without their military the EU’s defense capabilities would be diminished significantly. Given Germany’s footsie with Putin, Johnson would be justified in withdrawing military support from the continent

UK is not part of the EUs military force mostly supported by FRG and France, but is part of NATO. Because the UK is a NATO member it is bound under the terms of NATO to come to the defense of any other NATO member in case a member state is attacked. UK cannot refuse to participate in its mutual defense commitment without withdrawing from NATO entirely, or being expelled for refusing to defend a NATO member under atttack. Were UK to withdraw from NATO it would lose the guarantee it currently has that if attacked the rest of NATO, meaning a lot of EU members, will respond and go to war in its defense. Outside of NATO, the UK would become just another neutral country with no defense guarantees. The US could not come to UKs defense under NATO, it would have to do so without NATOs help leaving US and UK forces considerably diminished. The remaining NATO nations contribute four more aircraft carriers and a lot of destroyers, frigates, replenishment ships, submarines, significant airpower and land power. UK has only the fifth largest standing army in Europe. Italy, France, Germany and Greece all have larger armies. Imagine the UK trying to fend off Russian subs without access to airfields in Canada, Norway and Iceland. I don't think UK is stupid enough to abandon NATO out of sheer spite.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

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