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Ukraine says Russians will take one week to withdraw from KhersonBy Jonathan Landay FRONTLINE NORTH OF KHERSON, Ukraine
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Now is not the time to start believing Russians. In fact, that time will probably never come. Now is the time to support Ukrainian resolve and increase the weapons needed to drive out and keep out the Russians. Ukraine is right to be wary of any Russian statements. The world knows that Russia only lies.
Russians know exactly what they are doing and what they have done. Hopefully these criminals will be put on trial once the war is over.
Were I in a position to make such decisions I would be inclined to surround Kherson but continue to drive Russian forces further east. I would be inclined to take my time entering the city until I had full control of all the land surrounding the city and the river alongside and Russia forces were pushed east out of artillery range of Kherson. This "retreat" is too public to be taken at face value. Wariness of Russian claims with a recognition of the Russian military history of "maskirovka" is warranted.
A trap normally works then the other side doesn't know it's a trap. So, it would be interesting should the Russians try to implement their "trap" with the Ukes watching closely and fully cognizant of what is actually happening.
Expect the Putin fanboys to spend the next week demanding to know why the Ukrainians have failed to take Kherson despite receiving so much American assistance, then go completely silent on the issue and never mention Kherson again.
We don't know what the Ukrainians know, what intel the US and other NATO members have given them, nor do we know what the Russians know and don't know. There is probably a great deal of uncertainty on both sides. The Ukrainians worry about Russian soldiers wearing civilian attire and posing as Ukrainians who want to be aligned with Russia shooting from apartments, making the recapture of Kherson a long and bloody battle.
The new border between new Russian territory and Ukraine will be the river. Good news for Ukraine, Russia would have liked to have kept Kherson as a bargaining chip.
“though Kyiv warned that Russian troops could still turn Kherson into a "city of death"
‘Liberation’ was the plan, wasn’t it?
The Don River maybe.
Good advice, though Its very hard for me to refrain from mocking stupidity when I see it.
I’ve been following Lee since shortly after the war started and agree that his analysis is well informed and insightful. This is a reasonable point that seems plausible.
True, any attempt to cross the Dnipro in Kherson would likely be suicidal for the Ukrainians.
But the Ukrainians have one advantage, which is that they control both banks of the river further north. I would assume any future campaigns they launch would originate there, rather than trying to cross the river under Russian fire against well prepared defences.
@Wil, Ukrainian forces are already on the east side of the Dnipro, in Kharkiv and increasingly moving south into Luhansk.
Why does the news here always come from the side of Ukraine ? Ukraine seems to have no idea of the trap awaiting them in Kherson.
If the Ukrainians have the military capacity, they should hit the retreating Russians hard. They shouldn't allow Putin's forces to do a "Dunkirk" and slither across the Dniepro to fight another day.
Yes, Mark Galeotti is also worth reading. 8 months ago I had no idea who any of these people were, now I’m ensconced in their stuff. Perun is also quite good.
This is true, objective analysis of known facts is useful and persuasive and I generally gravitate towards the work of those who present that. People who just spout biased opinion, even if I am sympathetic to their views, I generally view s a waste of time.
This is why I don’t try to engage in discussions with “dumb” comments. But a short one liner that clearly illustrates the stupidity of a position, which is what I was doing in my earlier comment, tends to make the stupidity plain for all to see and force them to move on.
So your complaint is that the news doesn’t feature stories in which Russian side tells us about the secret trap the Russians are planning to spring on the Ukrainians?
Do you not understand how secret traps are meant to work?
Not only that, but it’s also been reported many times that Ukrainians think it could be a trap.
The war keeps going differently from what Putin plans, it has always been a long shot to think Russia could lose it, but at this point it looks barely possible, maybe more.
In other words, Zelensky's conscripts don't trust him enough to advance far on his orders, so it's going to take a week for them to creep forward even though nobody's firing on them.
The fleeing Ruskies have placed mines and booby traps on roads and inside houses and other buildings. Advancement by Ukraine troops will have to be slow. Putin could also blow the dam and flood the area.
It's a cunning plan.
“*We move very carefully, without emotions and unnecessary risks," he (Zelensky) said. "In the interests of the liberation of our entire land and so that there are *as few losses as possible."
Doesn't look like he's ordering anyone to 'advance far'.
They mined and shelled the civilian evacuation routes out of Mariupol that they had agreed to. Why would anyone not assume that they are booby trapping the whole of Kherson?
love, love, love watching the vids coming out of Kherson villages being liberated.
We will see what will happen with this strategic withdrawal from Russia, something will happen...
One week? I gues it will be more than this - same like restoring that bridge!
Besides, even one wek will give Ukraine enough time to send those aggressors to hell!
HIMARS will find valuable targets! Maybe Ukraine's advancements will be slow (or well thought thru!), ......
Ukraine will prevail!
"Russian state media and pro-Kremlin war hawks defended the withdrawal as a necessary move while acknowledging a heavy blow."
"Retreat? We didn't retreat. We advanced in another direction!" :)
The Ukrainians are doing a bit more than 'creeping forward' over the last day or so. They are liberating Kherson villages at quite a pace and should be at the Kherson City borders before long. Of course, anything can happen, but to say that the Ukrainians are not advancing is not accurate.
The Russians are withdrawing to reduce casualties; they care more about their soldiers that Zelensky does.
But I suspect Russia will liberate Kherson again in about a month after the ground freezes.
I'll take that bet.
I do often get the feeling that Baldrick is in the Kremlin whispering plans so cunning you could brush your teeth with them into Putin's ear.
If you add this variable into the equation, most of the past 9 months suddenly make sense.
Maybe, but it certainly won't be a win for ordinary Russian people.
Some of the comments here are really rich.
They might try, but some actions they’ve taken recently make me less sure about it. It’s more likely they’ll just try to lay it to waste.
Hopefully, not too many Russians leaving will be shot in the back, like they did to the non-military Ukrainian citizens.
Because Russia invaded another country who didn't attack them. Isn't it obvious that Russia is wrong here? It is to me and my ancestors used to live in Russia.
https://youtu.be/KP2wl6as77k is short (about 90sec) from Ukrainian troops being welcomed as liberators near Kherson on Nov 9th. The people seem genuinely happy. The soldiers don't seem thrilled to be kissed by the old lady. ;)
Yes, with their museum quality tanks non-existent Air Farce and untrained conscripts, lol. AND.....
You don't "liberate" something that is not yours in the first place. And I seriously doubt that the original inhabitants want to be "liberated" by a group of roving thugs that stole everything that was not nailed down and blew up whatever remained.
The Russians don’t really need Kherson city and they also don’t need Bachmut etc, those remaining unoccupied areas they still would have to take. They in fact only need Charkiv and Odessa for a win. And the Ukrainians of course would probably run into a trap if they retake Cherson. Even if it isn’t full of traps and mines, it’s completely destroyed so that it binds much logistics and the Russians also can easily adjust the artillery from the other side of the Dnipr river, and while maybe all civilians have gone, that will be like running into a bloody unlimited nightmare, surrounded only by ruins. They also don’t really ‘need’ it, I would recommend to ignore it and only use it as an emptied buffer zone until spring.
And they’re not in Odessa, are they? Why not? Because the Black Sea “fleet” is hiding out behind Crimea. They are about as likely to conduct a successful amphibious operation as they are to “liberate” Kherson.
With 1/2 of their front line tanks destroyed abandoned or captured, 250+ airframes in smoldering ruin, and 2 of their front line armies, you know, the ones designated to fight a war against NATO rendered combat ineffective (it could take years to reconstitute them.), Russia is a spent force.
It’s ships don’t float. It’s planes can’t or won’t operate in contested air space, it’s tanks burn, and it’s under-trained rabble run when given a chance.
Mini-me can pull his forces out or they can be forced out. But they’re leaving Ukraine.
And the days of NATO considering Russia a “near peer” competitor are over.
CNN is live from the liberated city of Snihurivka. Everyone looks REALLY happy to be rid of the Russians.
So much for the Russian narrative.