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Macron appears set for Elysee in runoff with Le Pen

34 Comments
By Sybille de La Hamaide and Matthias Blamont

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Whoever gets in would face the task of deregulating the

over regulated economy and

ensuring that less French die

at the hands of extremists.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

LePen spoke promising a protectionist, statist, isolationist utopia that has never existed anywhere and never will. Hopefully the French people won't fall for it.

2 ( +9 / -7 )

LePen spoke about handing France and her proud culture and independence back to the French people

-3 ( +10 / -13 )

LePen spoke about handing France and her proud culture and independence back to the French people

Yes, and she'll get the thrashing she deserves in the next round.

That trash right wave sweeping across the world is looking a bit limp, don't you think?

1 ( +8 / -7 )

Le Pen, leader of the National Front, was given 21.7% by Ifop and 22% by Harris. Other pollsters projected broadly similar results.

Still too many National Front votes. Nonetheless it's good to see that they didn't get more support given the outside assistance they were given by the usual suspects.

http://www.politico.eu/article/france-election-2017-russia-hacked-cyberattacks/

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

latest interior ministry figures, with 81% counted, Macron 23.3%, Le Pen 22.65%, the error margin in proportion to a 14 day time window between the accuracy of projection polling and the actual election results is error of ±3.72 percent. Observation variable i.e. race, age, geographical region, ethnicity, socio-economic level, party loyalty, gender, reveal using statistical concept modelling show Macron securing 69% to 75 % of the vote in the 2nd round, intrusive sampling a 29 points win margin. That is a big nut for Le Pen to crack over the next 14 days.  

Betting odds on a Macron mid 2016 win was a cool 28/1. paying the gambling tax upfront, that a nice number. Bookmakers were shortening Le Pen odds to 6/4 an implied probability of near 41%. Proves the bookies always come up smelling of roses.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Le Pen isn't a 'traditional' populist - far right candidate like we have in the anglo world. She is more of a national socialist & anti globalist who appeals to ppl who do not want to live in a world exclusively dominated by banks, markets and bosses on mega bonuses.

Dont think she will win but reckon the overwhelming majority of french anti globalist, socialists and communists may think twice before they vote for Macron who represents $ and big corp in their eyes. Paradoxically (for some), a french immigrant factory worker on 1,200 euros a month has more reasons to vote for her than say a french born/bred bloke on 5k/month. 

Her only chance is to portray Macron as another pro globalist tycoon, markets' puppet etc but even in a country like france i dont think there is a majority of ppl who want to go back to french francs, christian values they got rid off 230 years ago (she is not secular/republican enough for france) even if it means sovereignty, independence from Brussels etc.

1 ( +3 / -2 )

Emmanuel Macron is a relative outsider

Never been elected before; doesn't belong to the main parties

Even France is going for the outsiders

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Le Pen isn't a 'traditional' populist - far right candidate like we have in the anglo world.

I agree the labels of centrist or far right don't map onto anything in American politics. She isn't going to change the French top down Socialist state but simply wants to protect French culture, people, and tradition from foreign onslaught.

1 ( +6 / -5 )

It is always nice to see a country (France) with a democratic system which account every single citizen vote as 1 vote and not weighted by any location or big electors bias...at least each voters in France are directly electing their president. Hopefully voters will now do everything to discard the FN fascist party.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

Define the populist? or populism? Could it be a political analogy dreamt up by a ruling established elite. All to counter a electorate/populous unwilling to tolerate an ideology, that views by divine right a ruling class can continue to insist policies and government have to kowtow to a globalist agenda.

It is a ironic or fortunate that Le Pen et alia, are so politically un-electable right wing isolationists.

As French finance minster Macron was ineffective and unconvincing in putting across any reform package to change a system so heavily dependent on the state intervention. Its predictable the day after winning the first stage, the leadership of EU member states falling over each other breathing sighs of relief congratulating Macron, a figure with little or no experience of office or political leadership. 

What remains is the short term consolation prise of any political alternative to Le Pen.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

"Le Pen appears set for Elysee in runoff with Macron"

^ Title corrected!

-4 ( +3 / -7 )

Btw. Le Pen Isn't far right, she's centre right. A mistake that all leftist media makes.

-6 ( +3 / -9 )

"Le Pen appears set for Elysee in runoff with Macron"

^ Title corrected!

Really? Get yourself down to the bookies. You'll clean up on a Le Pen victory.

The French pollsters are remarkably accurate. They pretty much nailed this.

What polls are you working with to predict a Le Pen victory?

0 ( +5 / -5 )

Emmanuel Macron seems a dead cert , politically doesn't frighten the horses, has EU embossed on his soul. Emmanuel Macron can also genuinely speak from the heart about all the issues around the need to support and improve life for elderly. Nothing one can really grumble at.

1 ( +4 / -3 )

@jimizo, agree Macron is undoubtedly favorite yet first round abstentionists as well as 2nd round ones shouldn't be dismissed. Many in melenchon's electorate are ideologically closer to le pen than they are to Macron.

My 2 cents is that roughly 1/3 won't bother voting while the rest may prefer MLP to ENA educated macron who reeks of wall street, cac40, Brussels etc for their anti globalist nostrils. I still don't think that'll be enough to send her to the elysee but if we get over say 35% abstention and at the same time melenchon's folks rally behind the other anti globalism candidate well it may be closer than expected, 55/45 perhaps?

Also depends on Fillon's electorate, (who may feel they've been betrayed) will they listen to their leader and vote for a former socialist minister? Not sure.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

I was in France as a student when all the talk of european union and give up the ECU for a common money was in the papers daily..i am praying for a Le Pen victory. Back in '92 France was not in such a mess. Now it is time to go back to the better days. My campus was surrounded by a ghetto back then. It must be a nightmare there now ( i ain't talkin' metropole either...) A novice as president is simply a choking joke, and would only mean installing a puppet leader. Unfortunately Marine will lose the immigrant votes, but hopefully she will garner huge support from 'chomeur' youth to put her over the top and make the banker crowd whimper. Really want her to win! And as readers here react with a negative on me, if you can't understand French then you can't HEAR just how smart this woman is.

-2 ( +5 / -7 )

Alot to be said for the gold coin 'ecu d'or' from 1266...

0 ( +0 / -0 )

Hi loggediin, may I ask where your campus was located? Just for curiosity sake. I have spent time Lyon and Paris.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

The Mirail campus Universite de Toulouse.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

Many thanks loggediin, when visiting Lyon I saw a municipal housing project in Caluire, a northeastern suburb. 7000 plus in these concrete high-rises, 90% on social benefits, without work, of north African decent. It was a very depressing sight. Similar to the Kidbrooke's Ferrier estate. (South London).

A bleak breeding ground for crime. Macron if elected will follow in a long line of Presidents that will no doubt pledge to tackle these monstrosity social housing projects.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

LePen spoke about handing France and her proud culture and independence back to the French people

Yes, and she'll get the thrashing she deserves in the next round. 

That trash right wave sweeping across the world is looking a bit limp, don't you think?

Yes Jimizo, I must say the right have won just a couple of elections in the provinces; something called Brexit and another one for..., what was it? Oh yeah, the Presidency of the United States!

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

In elections of 2012 Le Pen was the third, now she can be the first. Good, the French people are awakening. Only a passionate patriot like Le Pen can pull France from the morass it is in now.

Macron no good, he is just a banker, and bankers are passionate only about money. If elected, Macron would be a figurehead for a rule of banksters and bureaucrats from Brussels.

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

Yes Jimizo, I must say the right have won just a couple of elections in the provinces; something called Brexit and another one for..., what was it? Oh yeah, the Presidency of the United States!

Yes, and the most interesting performance in the Dutch election was the tree-hugging lefties rather than the big blond rightist. Austria didn't go for the rightist nutter there either.

I'm not even convinced Brexit was a swing to the trash right. Anyone with a passing knowledge of UK politics knows that the UK has been divided over Europe for decades. The Tory Party have had close to civil war over this. A referendum ten years ago may have yielded the same result.

As for the US, it is one of the least politically engaged and politically aware of all developed countries with an atrocious turnout rate. You tend to find the continental European countries, and France in particular, a little more aware and engaged.

This is why Le Pen will lose.

4 ( +6 / -2 )

Jimizo - Ah, I see. Americans are lazy, ignorant dullards. What would they have been if Clinton had won?

and while Wilders party did not win the recent election, they received the most seats ever making them the 2nd largest party in the House of Representatives. On Islam, heres what your blond Worse-than-Hitler had to say;

Wilders has also been compared to the assassinated fellow critic of Islam and filmmaker Theo van Gogh, but he does not see himself as taking on van Gogh's mantle.[29] Wilders has stated that he supports the free speech rights of his critics, saying that "An Imam who wants a politician dead is—however reprehensible—allowed to say so".[82] He has responded to critics' comments of racism and Islamophobia by stating, "I don't hate Muslims. I hate their book and their ideology".[4]

> Funny how the regressive left pale in comparison to the right when it comes to free speech and integrity.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

Jimizo - Ah, I see. Americans are lazy, ignorant dullards. What would they have been if Clinton had won?

I didn't say that. I said America is one of the least politically engaged and politically aware of all developed countries. Look at the turnout rates. Try to engage with what I said.

I don't see Wilders as Hitler. He's part of the trash right. Again, please don't shoot down arguments I didn't make.

I'm actually in favour of stricter immigration and I've been called a bigot on this site, and had my posts zapped, for my less than favourable view of Islam. Wilders and Le Pen could turn out to be useful idiots in pushing saner politicians towards a bit more common sense on the subject of immigration.

My point is voting for trash like Trump, Wilders and Le Pen will only serve to inflame an already dangerous situation.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

Jimizo - don't get all cagey, you laid it on pretty thick regarding Americans. 

I lived in the US. I'll very possibly go back there to work. I have a lot of time for the place. I spoke to Americans who were very despondent about the lack of political engagement in the US ( terrible turnout rates ). I hear the same in Japan ( terrible turnout rates ). I hear people from the UK worry about political apathy among the young ( a key aspect of Brexit ). My Danish friend doesn't say this because Denmark has....wait for it.....very high turnout rates!

These are statements of fact. Can't you deal with statements of fact in your post-truth world?

Again, I never called Brexiteers trash. My mother is a Trotskyite who voted Brexit and many lefties did - another fact the fact-free right avoid in their portrayal of Brexit as solely a rightist movement.

I'd stick with my description of Trump, Wilders and Le Pen as trash. Wilders was defeated, Le Pen will be defeated and Trump won ( didn't win the popular vote ) in a country with very low turnout rates.

Are you prepared to put money on Le Pen? Go on, put your money where your mouth is...

3 ( +5 / -2 )

@Mr Noidall

A statement of fact. The US has many great things about it but has terrible turnout rates at elections. Japan has terrible turnout rates too - what envy is that? The UK has pretty bad turnout rates compared with the likes of France and Denmark - I do envy their levels of political engagement.

This aversion to facts is terrifying.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

What's the point of turning out to vote if the choices are either mumps or the measles? Maybe some people vote by not participating in a bogus system. It's sounds better than blindly participating in a corrupt process. Maybe where you speak of there's just a higher turn out of herd thinkers?

Weak. The French election threw up candidates from the left, right, centre, establishment, non-establishment...A pretty good range. No herd mentality - that was reflected in the fact nobody could command even a quarter of the vote.

In a free democracy, a crappy system and a limited choice is a reflection on the apathy of the electorate. Don't blame the politicians for taking advantage of this. Clearly there isn't enough of a movement demanding better.

5 ( +5 / -0 )

Le Pen will not win this time, and I think also not next time: she may get an ineligibility sentence because: 1) some of her party assistants in the EU parliament illegally worked for her party while being paid by the EU) ; 2) her party created a shady company and micro-party structure which provided over-billed campaign services to her candidates. (oh, that's not different than the tactics used by the 2 parties in power for decades ; and she pretends being "against the system")

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

A Holocaust revisionist or a breath of fresh air? It’s incredible some are even asking the question. Le Pen is an affront to humanity.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

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