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Global COVID-19 death toll could hit 2 million before vaccine in wide use: WHO

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The global death toll from COVID-19 could double to 2 million before a successful vaccine is widely used and could be even higher without concerted action to curb the pandemic, an official at the World Health Organization said on Friday.

"Unless we do it all, (2 million deaths) ... is not only imaginable, but sadly very likely," Mike Ryan, head of the U.N. agency's emergencies program, told a briefing on Friday.

The number of deaths about nine months since the novel coronavirus was discovered in China is nearing 1 million

"We are not out of the woods anywhere, we are not out of the woods in Africa," said Ryan.

He said young people should not be blamed for a recent increase in infections despite growing concerns that they are driving its spread after restrictions and lockdowns were eased around the world.

"I really hope we don't get into finger wagging: it's all because of the youth," said Ryan. "The last thing a young person needs is an old person pontificating and wagging the finger."

Rather, indoor gatherings of people of all ages were driving the epidemic, he said.

The WHO is continuing talks with China about its possible involvement in the COVAX financing scheme designed to guarantee fast and equitable access globally to COVID-19 vaccines, a week after the deadline for committing passed.

"We're in discussions with China about the role they may play as we go forward," said Bruce Aylward, WHO senior adviser and head of the ACT-Accelerator program to back vaccines, treatments and diagnostics against COVID-19.

He confirmed that Taiwan has signed up to the scheme, even though it is not a WHO member, bringing the total to 159 participants. Some 34 are still deciding.

Talks with China also include discussion of the world's second-largest economy potentially supplying vaccines to the scheme, he said.

The UN agency published on Friday draft criteria for the assessment of emergency use of COVID-19 vaccines to help guide drugmakers as vaccine trials reach advanced stages, said WHO assistant director-general, Mariangela Simao.

The document will be available for public comment until Oct 8, she said.

Earlier on Friday, a Chinese health official said the WHO had given its support for the country to start administering experimental coronavirus vaccines to people even while clinical trials were still underway.

© Thomson Reuters 2020.

©2020 GPlusMedia Inc.

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"He confirmed that Taiwan has signed up to the scheme, even though it is not a WHO member ... ". and so what is next step? What did WHO learn from this? Who in WHO is responsible for this disaster?

2 ( +5 / -3 )

All predictions so far have been so off, but this time...

-5 ( +3 / -8 )

"Unless we do it all, (2 million deaths) ... is not only imaginable, but sadly very likely," Mike Ryan, head of the U.N. agency's emergencies program, told a briefing on Friday.

If you look at the monthly total death rates, (both global and nation based) you see that they are not different from before Corona started. Ergo, Corona kills mostly people who would have died anyway from something else (note the 96% with co-morbidities that the CDC found). What you do not see is a sudden surge in death rates.

This whole Corona hysteria looks more and more like a power grab by governments, finding excuses to control the population.

-8 ( +4 / -12 )

Zaphod’s post is laughably provably wrong.

Looking at the expected number of deaths given historical data (and adjusting for population) and the actual deaths yields a massive under count of Covid deaths.

There were hundreds of thousands living with morbidities and now they are dead. What happened? Covid happened.

In the US alone the proven death toll makes Covid the 3rd leading cause of death. The actual tally is likely 100 k greater.

Any claim otherwise is just laughable.

9 ( +11 / -2 )

Graham DeShazo

Looking at the expected number of deaths given historical data (and adjusting for population) and the actual deaths yields a massive under count of Covid deaths.

Why? The total death numbers for 2020 are not much different from 2019; why do you assume that they should have been massively lower without Corona?

-12 ( +1 / -13 )

After China's failure to promptly recognize the c19 outbreak, failure to stop the Chinese New Years exodus of tourists, refusal to come clean on the origins of c19 including the WIV. frankly I think China should be contributing a vaccine to the whole world at their expense. This is all while China expands it's geopolitical goals breaking status quos, while the world is on it's knees due to c19.

2 ( +5 / -3 )

This whole Corona hysteria looks more and more like a power grab by governments, finding excuses to control the population.

You’ve been asked before to give some specifics about this. You seem quite capable at bringing up stats and ‘evidence’ about Covid-19 deaths. How about something to back up this wild claim? Where, Who and Why would be a start. Otherwise it’s just more Qanon tin foil paranoia.

6 ( +8 / -2 )

If you look at the monthly total death rates, (both global and nation based) you see that they are not different from before Corona started.

Did you actually look at the data? In the US the excess deaths started to spike in April. Based on the data the US reported COVID deaths is very much under-reported. Considering the world death rates COVID deaths actually do seem to be massively under recorded.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

Seapig

Did you actually look at the data?

Here is the data I am looking at. I do not see a dramatic spike, which you would expect from the wild claims about a deadly pandemic:

Total deaths/month as per CDC:

2019 January 258,000

2019 February 233,000

2019 March 255,000

2019 April 235,000

2019 May 237,000

2019 June 225,000

2019 July 229,000

2019 August 227,000

2019 September 223,000

2019 October 238,000

2019 November 239,000

2019 December 256,000

2020 January 263,000

2020 February 243,000

2020 March 268,000

-7 ( +2 / -9 )

This whole Corona hysteria looks more and more like a power grab by governments, finding excuses to control the population.

Yes, very much so.

This video does a good job looking at European deaths*

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&feature=emb_logo

-8 ( +1 / -9 )

@Zaphod: Here is the data I am looking at. I do not see a dramatic spike, which you would expect from the wild claims about a deadly pandemic:

Do you have a source for these monthly US death stats? Given the reported covid death counts it’s very hard to fathom how these counts could be correct. The US has voluntarily shut its economy and the impact has been huge and damaging on the lives of everyone. All that and the death and suffering is essentially flat? Do these numbers imply that covid is held responsible for a large number of deaths that would have occurred anyway? Having a hard time wrap my head around the numbers.

-8 ( +0 / -8 )

Big numbers are fun

2 million deaths out of 7 billion people

-7 ( +0 / -7 )

50000 Britons protested against the UK lockdown today in Trafalgar Square.

Must be pretty embarrassing for those involved in an earlier thread which depicted Midwest Americans as toothless, right-wing morons digging their own graves for much smaller protests.

I don't suppose the Trafalgar Square protest will make the news on JT, will it?

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

The US has voluntarily shut its economy and the impact has been huge and damaging on the lives of everyone.

That’s cause America went into the pandemic leaderless and without any proper guidance.

Other countries shut down, social distanced, and wore masks until they flattened the curve, at which point it became safe to open up.

America never properly shut down, was spotty at best with masks, and then got impatient when the curve didn’t flatten as fast, then opened up without a flattened curve. Then of course the virus spread rampantly because of the pathetic response to it.

And you still have trump claiming he did a good job. What a joke.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

I predict that many before they even FIND A VACCINE.

Who else is paying attention this thing with the media pretending an effective, safe vaccine is just waiting for mass production to kick in? THERE IS NO VACCINE. Supposedly there are potential vaccines, but the mold on the old cheese in my fridge might be too. KNOCK IT OFF.

The WHO is continuing talks with China about its possible involvement in the COVAX financing scheme

Scheme. I like that word. Reminds me of "scam" and is often used synonymously.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

Wolfpack

Do you have a source for these monthly US death stats? Given the reported covid death counts it’s very hard to fathom how these counts could be correct. The US has voluntarily shut its economy and the impact has been huge and damaging on the lives of everyone. All that and the death and suffering is essentially flat? Do these numbers imply that covid is held responsible for a large number of deaths that would have occurred anyway? Having a hard time wrap my head around the numbers.

The data are from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/provisional-tables.htm

And since the CDC now also admits that 96% of the Corona deaths had 2 or more co-morbidities, what we are looking is essentially a picture where people who would have died anyway are now counted as Corona deaths. Quite surprising, if you have only been listening to the talking heads at the mainstream media, isnt it.

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

Who else is paying attention this thing with the media pretending an effective, safe vaccine is just waiting for mass production to kick in? THERE IS NO VACCINE. Supposedly there are potential vaccines, but the mold on the old cheese in my fridge might be too. KNOCK IT OFF.

Vaccine development is a process with many steps, with the candidates having to demonstrate efficacy and safety to a certain point before going to the next one, having them at the last step right now is not the same as just saying it has begun being developed. Have your cheese subjected to in-vitro, preclinical and clinical trials? no? that is the difference.

Your position is like saying that experts warning about a volcanic eruption are not worth to be listened, even with tremors, cracks and smoke coming out of it, because "there is no eruption" right now.

And since the CDC now also admits that 96% of the Corona deaths had 2 or more co-morbidities, what we are looking is essentially a picture where people who would have died anyway are now counted as Corona deaths. Quite surprising, if you have only been listening to the talking heads at the mainstream media, isnt it.

No, that is not what having co-morbidity means. People with overweight, diabetis, hypertension, allergic conditions, asthma, smokers, etc. etc. can live perfectly productive lives for decades. Around 80% of the people 55yo and above have some "important" chronic condition, according to you they would all be death already right?

How about listening to the official position of every professional medical associations of the world? are they also controlled?

7 ( +8 / -1 )

You mean the ones that get money from Gates?

No, I mean all, from all over the world, it would be fantasy to think one single person funds every single piece of research and organization that have to do with health.

Only irrational belief on world wide conspiracies including every person dedicated to health could believe something so far out of reality. Specially considering the amount of money that takes to move research on the world scale, his whole fortune several times over would not be able to do it.

7 ( +8 / -1 )

@Zaphod

And since the CDC now also admits that 96% of the Corona deaths had 2 or more co-morbidities, what we are looking is essentially a picture where people who would have died anyway are now counted as Corona deaths.

If the standard of "had comorbidity so would have died anyway so this disease was not the cause" was applied to other diseases, the happy result would be a huge drop in cancer fatalities, as well as fatalities from most of the other major diseases affecting the population.

Which is why that standard isn't applied, and why it is both meaningless and useless. This whole thing arose because some people with an ulterior motive seem to have been unaware of what information is entered on death certificates, and what it actually signifies.

6 ( +7 / -1 )

having them at the last step right now is not the same as just saying it has begun being developed.

@virusrex I don't usually name the poster, but dear God, YOU again? One might have thought you had learned from our last exchange but I guess not.

The above quote is simply putting words in my mouth. I NEVER said anything was "just being developed". You want to nitpick about stages? Then kindly be so nitpicky as to accept the fine points of what I actually said and not chuck out some generalization spun as negatively as possible, okay?

What I said was "the media pretending an effective, safe vaccine is just waiting for mass production to kick in" . Until there is a safe, effective and proven and approved vaccine there basically is "no vaccine". Its not on the market. Its not available to the general public. And that is not even getting into the claimed efficacy at the moment, the highest of which I have heard was less than 50 percent for one of them.

Your position is like saying that experts warning about a volcanic eruption are not worth to be listened, even with tremors, cracks and smoke coming out of it, because "there is no eruption" right now.

My position is not remotely like that. My position is like looking at the history of those who claim to be able to predict volcanic eruptions and noting a long history of failing miserably. And even despite that I keep an open mind and give the new attemptee a bit of an ear. But I do I want my government to blast tax money at him? Do I encourage individuals to buy his stock? Or even sit idle while others do? No I do not.

Hope that one of these potential vaccines will work out is great. Betting the farm isn't. The media and many talking heads are talking as if its such a sure thing, they can just act like its already here. And since its already here, set everything up as if its already here, uh, especially those dollars! Nope. That's scammy.

-6 ( +1 / -7 )

wipeout

If the standard of "had comorbidity so would have died anyway so this disease was not the cause" was applied to other diseases, the happy result would be a huge drop in cancer fatalities, as well as fatalities from most of the other major diseases affecting the population.

I dont see the logic with that claim, can you explain what you mean? What I pointed out was that the total death rate is essentially flat. While if the claim that Corona had killed hundreds of thousands IN ADDITION to the expected death rate, I would expect to see a sharp rise from January or so. What is wrong with that simple observation?

Which is why that standard isn't applied, and why it is both meaningless and useless. This whole thing arose because some people with an ulterior motive seem to have been unaware of what information is entered on death certificates, and what it actually signifies.

You do realize that the cause of death is not always clear and that there can be incentives to write "Corona" when the death was WITH Corona, don´t you, I am sure you have read about the guy who crasheds is motorbike and was listed as Corona death, because, well, he had Corona. That one was changed, but only it found its way into the news.

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

I am sure you have read about the guy who crasheds is motorbike and was listed as Corona death, because, well, he had Corona. That one was changed, but only it found its way into the news.

So only that one case we keep hearing about found its way into the news?

Who’s covering up all the many others?

3 ( +7 / -4 )

Bob Fosse

So only that one case we keep hearing about found its way into the news?

Who’s covering up all the many others?

That one made the news only because it was so much over the top it was truly bizarre. The millions of cases where the COD is not clear never make it to the news.

There is no need to "cover up" anything, when you have incentives in place, both for hospitals to write Corona and for the media to hype up Corona.

Again to remind you: The overall death rate does not support an additional major factor of death in the population.

-6 ( +2 / -8 )

Again to remind you: The overall death rate does not support an additional major factor of death in the population.

Ive said it before and Ill say it again. the 200000 number out of the US is not just inaccurate, but a farcical embellishment. sometime in the next year or two, the truth will come out. Unfortunately, those responsible for the lies will never have to answer for them.

-7 ( +1 / -8 )

The millions of cases where the COD is not clear never make it to the news.

But you somehow know about them. Millions of them. Ok.

Again to remind you; talking about media incentives and agendas without consistent evidence or data is, well, like seeing Bigfoot.

5 ( +6 / -1 )

Ive said it before and Ill say it again. the 200000 number out of the US is not just inaccurate, but a farcical embellishment. sometime in the next year or two, the truth will come out. Unfortunately, those responsible for the lies will never have to answer for them.

So it’s such a big conspiracy now that when the “truth” finally comes out (in a year or two apparently) we won’t know how, why or who. But we’ll all know it’s true.

Yeah, sounds legit.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

@virusrex I don't usually name the poster, but dear God, YOU again? One might have thought you had learned from our last exchange but I guess not.

Terribly sorry but I have no idea what you are talking about. I criticize a comment that exaggerates to a ridiculous point the process of having or not a vaccine as if it were only a 0 or 100% situation, nothing I have read would make me think this is acceptable. What have you written that somehow justifies doing so?

The above quote is simply putting words in my mouth. I NEVER said anything was "just being developed". You want to nitpick about stages? Then kindly be so nitpicky as to accept the fine points of what I actually said and not chuck out some generalization spun as negatively as possible, okay?

I am the one saying it is being developed. You are the one saying it is as likely a company have a working vaccine as the cheese in your body. which is nonsense.

What I said was "the media pretending an effective, safe vaccine is just waiting for mass production to kick in" . Until there is a safe, effective and proven and approved vaccine there basically is "no vaccine". Its not on the market. Its not available to the general public. And that is not even getting into the claimed efficacy at the moment, the highest of which I have heard was less than 50 percent for one of them.

One think is that is not available to the public and another is that is there has been no developed being done and is as far from being one now as it was in January. It perfectly fine that the media talks about something that has proved to be fine and effective at least enough to be in the final steps of clinical trials and given to literally thousands of volunteers. It is simply much more likely that at least one of the candidates ends up being available soon than none. Simple common sense would be enough to understand why they are taking the position that this is something as good as done. After all is not like they are saying that people are lining right now for it.

My position is not remotely like that. My position is like looking at the history of those who claim to be able to predict volcanic eruptions and noting a long history of failing miserably.

Because that is what happens with vaccines? that is false. There are a huge lot of vaccines readily available and the opposite is true, how common do you imagine is that a vaccine in phase III of the clinical trials failed to be used?

Hope that one of these potential vaccines will work out is great. Betting the farm isn't. The media and many talking heads are talking as if its such a sure thing, they can just act like its already here. And since its already here, set everything up as if its already here, uh, especially those dollars! Nope. That's scammy.

One one side we have scientific data from the whole process that say that several versions of the vaccine are now in the last steps of production and a failure to pass stage III would be an extremely rare thing to happen, on the other side you think this is not happening just because.

You cannot blame everybody to concur with the people that have the data instead of a nameless person on the internet based on nothing. That include the goverments, the media and the public in general.

4 ( +5 / -1 )

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