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UK grocers, fast food warn of major disruption from no-deal Brexit

20 Comments
By James Davey

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Calm down people. A no deal departure will be just fine.

-3 ( +3 / -6 )

Calm down people. A no deal departure will be just fine.

There is no way you could know that.

3 ( +6 / -3 )

This whole situation is much like the Millenium Bug. In reality, very little will happen. The British Media are trying their best to whip up hysteria so that enough people will be scared to change their minds. Not going to work. The pudding has already been over-egged.

Most people accept they'll be some disruption over the first few days and weeks, but must people understand that these food companies will also want to keep selling their products, and the companies themselves will do everything in their power to prevent any obstacles.

0 ( +2 / -2 )

Just reduce the 5 a day to 3 a day.  A lack of lettuce or strawberries will not be the end of the world.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

This whole situation is much like the Millenium Bug. In reality, very little will happen.

People forget that the media and the political class were predicting economic collapse had the 2016 referendum favored Brexit—which it did. Curiously, nothing happened the next morning aside from a brief drop in the value of the pound sterling against the US dollar, which it made up for that same day, if I recall correctly.

The same will occur here in the event of a “no-deal” Brexit.

But even if that were not to be the case, that was a decision made by the British electorate and ought to be respected. Otherwise, let us dispense once and for all these pretenses to democracy and simply dictate to the people for what and whom they should vote for.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

Most people accept they'll be some disruption over the first few days and weeks

How can you predict how bad this disruption will be and how long it will last?

We Brits aren’t renowned for our efficiency.

0 ( +3 / -3 )

@Jimizo

I think the UK will be just fine. I would disagree and say that when push comes to shove, Britain is extremely good at adapting.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

There is little more that instigates, incites or defines trepidation, dread, or sheer panic than change.

Give or take, the UK forty five year membership of the now European Union, its institutions, political and economic, its regulatory framework, the legislative functionalities (ECJ). contributory management, practices associated with a structural cohesion and a common agricultural policy are evolving into a federal European movement, a European state, supranational government, bluntly multinational political union.

Because of the ineptitude, and incompetence of Parliament , UK ruling government, and main opposition parties, every obstacle factitious or otherwise has been peddled to either halt or reverse the 2016 referendum result.

The above mentioned lobby group and retailers only have there own interests at heart, having little or nothing to do with the consumer.

If the common agricultural policy were to be dismantled, and the UK deviate from regulatory elements within a number of EU non tariff barriers. The opportunities for future trade are or could be a one in a lifetime event.

The major concern for my UK business and employees, is the effect a clean break would have initially to the value Sterling. However if deemed fit a contingency plan is in place to pay salaries and bonuses in US dollar or Yen dominations.

I could quant/model out the effect/impact/risks of/to a no deal, clean break, scenario to sectors within the UK agricultural supply chain.

The business has been developing/producing risk models for clients associated with the financial institutions.

I just need time to sit down and “pencil out” a mathematical overview analysis.

If contributors/students are interested this is a good place to begin your analysis.

PSE Manual Agricultural Polices and Support..........

http://www.oecd.org/tad/agricultural-policies/psemanual.htm

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Beans on toast it is then!

0 ( +0 / -0 )

That is funny !! They are threatening the British with having to eat their own food !!

2 ( +3 / -1 )

You made your bed, Britain. There's always the option of not doing Brexit, like the majority of Britains now want, but nope... pride and all that.

-1 ( +2 / -3 )

You made your bed, Britain. There's always the option of not doing Brexit, like the majority of Britains (sic) now want, but nope... pride and all that.

Polls prior to the Brexit vote of 2016 also showed a discernible preference for remaining in the EU among the electorate. Of course, we all know now how that turned out.

Whether Brexit is “right” or “wrong” is irrelevant. The only thing that matters is that a clear majority favored leaving the EU. It is insulting in the short term to ignore this majority, as well as damaging to the democratic process in the long term to insinuate that the Brexit referendum of 2016 was not already a “people’s vote”. Or does the UK only honor elections where the electorate faithfully obeys the dictates of their social betters?

0 ( +3 / -3 )

@smithinjapan

There's always the option of not doing Brexit, like the majority of Britains now want, but nope... pride and all that.

Not true. Opinium poll from Jan 16-18:

Cancellation of Brexit: 20%

Go ahead with Brexit on the current timelines even if it means leaving with no deal: 40%

Delay Brexit: 20%

Even if we are generous and split the delay vote by 50/50 if that is not a choice, a majority still want Brexit.

-1 ( +0 / -1 )

Curiously, nothing happened the next morning aside from a brief drop in the value of the pound sterling against the US dollar, which it made up for that same day, if I recall correctly.

That's not my memory. The pound fell from $1.45 at the end of May 2016 to about $1.22 by the end of October that year. It climbed back somewhat during 2017 and early 2018 but has fallen again since April 2018.

3 ( +3 / -0 )

Calm down people. A no deal departure will be just fine.

Easy for anyone to say who doesn't live in Britain right now

Some Japanese in 2008 told the Americans the same thing during the Lehman Brothers collapse. Easy for them to say!

That is funny !! They are threatening the British with having to eat their own food !!

This is what the article mentions:

"Problems would be particularly acute around March, when Britain is scheduled to quit the bloc, and when most of its produce from lettuces to tomatoes is out of season, with a higher percentage imported, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) added."

"The signatories said they were stockpiling where possible, but noted that all of Britain's frozen and chilled storage is already being used, with very little general warehousing space available."

"They said it is impossible to stockpile fresh produce with supermarkets typically storing no more than two weeks’ inventory."

Out of season; not enough warehouse space; 2 weeks inventory - they won't have enough of their own food!

1 ( +1 / -0 )

That's not my memory. The pound fell from $1.45 at the end of May 2016 to about $1.22 by the end of October that year. It climbed back somewhat during 2017 and early 2018 but has fallen again since April 2018.

That’s my memory too. Also, the Pound dropped from ¥160 to ¥130 on the day of the referendum and is now at about ¥145.

1 ( +1 / -0 )

For commentators interest....

GBPJPY Currency Pair......slide the GBP/JPY graph for historic reference data.....

https://www.fxcm.com/insights/gbpjpy-currency-pair/

Keep in mind there was little or no promised central bank intervention, either ECB or BOE after the June 2016 referendum to protect sterling.

So one must factor in a similar policy in the case of a no deal scenario.

0 ( +1 / -1 )

Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay will open the debate at 12:45UK/21:45JPN MPs will make there way through the division lobbies at approx 19:00UK/04:00 Wed/JPN......I will be staying up, for other insomniacs.......

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Commons

1 ( +1 / -0 )

GBPJPY Currency Pair......slide the GBP/JPY graph for historic reference data.....

https://www.fxcm.com/insights/gbpjpy-currency-pair/

Cheers mate.

2 ( +2 / -0 )

Calm down people. A no deal departure will be just fine.

Try telling that to a sheep farmer who currently exports lamb to Italy. From a 0% tariff to a WTO 40% tariff. Don't worry, I can hear those Italian importers saying. Or perhaps s/he can look forward to a new trade agreement with Nigeria.

Sorry, but all I see from a no-deal is one huge mess.

0 ( +0 / -0 )

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